Buyers or Sellers: Can the Twins Be Both at the 2024 Trade Deadline?

[Cody Christie]

Many fans hope the Twins add a big bat or an impact pitcher before the trade deadline, but the front office has an opportunity for a unique strategy. Can the club find a way to buy and sell?

Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota’s front office was forced to be creative this winter when searching for pieces to complete the roster because of ownership’s self-imposed payroll limitations. The resulting roster has underperforming players and other holes that must be addressed at the trade deadline. The Twins currently hold the final Wild Card spot and are on pace to win 90 games, so it seems logical for the team to want to be buyers. However, the club might have room to trade away veteran pieces to maximize any remaining value. 

Like many ownership groups, Twins ownership has previously pointed to other organizations with lower payrolls and on-field success. “I think in today's game, you can see there are a number of different ways to win,” executive chair Joe Pohlad told reporters earlier this spring. “You see that both with the Tampa Bay Rays, with the Baltimore Orioles, having lower payrolls and turning out very successful products on the field, but also investing in other areas of the business.” Tampa is an organization that isn’t afraid to deal away a veteran player and replace that player with a younger, more cost-effective option. However, that strategy only works if the replacement player can produce. 

Minnesota’s team's needs before the deadline still need to be determined. Many of the team’s right-handed bats have underperformed by combining for a 94 wRC+, but the Twins hope that the return of Royce Lewis will help those totals. Matt Wallner and Edouard Julien were expected to build off their tremendous rookie seasons, and now they are both at Triple-A, hoping to rediscover their swings. Overall pitching depth is also something all contending teams attempt to acquire at the trade deadline. It seems unlikely for this front office to add a playoff-caliber starter, so any upgrades should be relief arms. 

So, how can the Twins thread the needle between buyers and sellers? Minnesota’s front office attempted to trade veteran pieces this winter, but other options remain on the roster. Max Kepler has seen his name in the rumor mill for multiple seasons. There is a possibility the Twins can extend him a qualifying offer after the season, but that seems unlikely with the previously mentioned payroll limitations. Kepler is likely headed to a multi-year free-agent deal out of the Twins’ price range. The front office could trade Kepler’s expiring contract If Wallner or Emmanuel Rodriguez were deemed ready to step into a full-time role in right field. Kepler isn’t the only veteran trade option.

Another way the Twins can get creative this winter is by using veteran players to balance money in a trade. Earlier this week, I wrote about Minnesota targeting Pete Alonso in a trade with the Mets. He is owed over $7 million for the remainder of the season, so the Mets could agree to take on the salary of a player like Christian Vázquez to make the deal work. Carlos Santana and Kyle Farmer can be used similarly if the Twins feel comfortable with other players stepping into their roles on the club. Caleb Thielbar is another name that might draw some trade interest because many contending teams are looking for left-handed relievers. He’s the most expensive player in the bullpen, and the Twins have other lefty options. 

Many of the team’s veteran players have underperformed to this point in the season, so there may be minimal trade value associated with their contracts. To be clear, the strategy of trading someone like Kepler will not sit well with a fan base that was drug through the mud during the offseason. At the same time, the front office doesn’t make moves based on how the fans will react. If that were the case, Luis Arráez and Jorge Polanco would still be on the roster. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have shown the ability to be aggressive at the trade deadline, but that might mean a combination of buying and selling for 2024. 

Can any team successfully buy and sell at the trade deadline? Do the veteran pieces have any trade value left on the bone? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

 

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[Craig Arko]

I expect that may be what happens. Coming and going. This team may look different come August.

[Karbo]

The players that need to be replaced with upgrades probably wouldn't bring back a bag of batting practice balls. Other than Kepler, I just don't see other teams wanting any of Margot type players.

[Dman]

I don't think the Twins will find any takers for underperforming players at the deadline.  I also don't see them panicking and trading Kepler.  They will want his veteran presence for the playoffs and if they get nothing for him and he walks at least they gave the team the best chance in the playoffs.

If Stewart comes back and the pen stays healthy not sure they would absolutely need pen help, but sure they could try and make it even stronger further down the line.

Right now I pretty much see them staying pat or maybe DFA'ing Farmer or Margo if they don't perform well enough to get Martin, Wallner, Julien or Lee back up.

Of course injuries later in the season could change all that, but right now I don't see them being all that active at the trade deadline.

[chpettit19]

As of today I'd be quite surprised to see them pulling off any major trades. Don't really expect them to even pull off minor trades. They already have their veteran platoon bats, and they don't have many openings in the pen. The openings they may have in the pen for the playoffs would likely be filled by Varland and whichever starter doesn't make the 4 man postseason rotation. Injuries could obviously change all this, but as of right now I don't see them being buyers or sellers. I think they stick with what they have and take their chances.

[Linus]

I don’t see much happening either. They aren’t going to add payroll so that really restricts what they can do. If you are contending I don’t think you can trade Kepler because we have nobody to take his place. They could really use a big bat but don’t really see a path forward for this type of trade. 

[DJL44]

8 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

As of today I'd be quite surprised to see them pulling off any major trades. Don't really expect them to even pull off minor trades. They already have their veteran platoon bats, and they don't have many openings in the pen. The openings they may have in the pen for the playoffs would likely be filled by Varland and whichever starter doesn't make the 4 man postseason rotation. Injuries could obviously change all this, but as of right now I don't see them being buyers or sellers. I think they stick with what they have and take their chances.

Injuries may lead them to make a deal but otherwise I think you're right. They have the team they want on the field right now.

[CRF]

Don't see this FO doing much of anything. There might be a couple minor deals, but that would be about it. 

[Dman]

35 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

 The openings they may have in the pen for the playoffs would likely be filled by Varland and whichever starter doesn't make the 4 man postseason rotation. Injuries could obviously change all this, but as of right now I don't see them being buyers or sellers. I think they stick with what they have and take their chances.

Good point.  They would most likely just fill the backend with starters like SWR, Paddack, Varland, and maybe even Festa.  They have some high octane K type pitchers to fill out the back end and be long relief if necessary.  I don't see them trading for a reliever with all the other options they would have for the end of the season and playoffs.

[Fatbat]

21 hours ago, Craig Arko said:

I expect that may be what happens. Coming and going. This team may look different come August.

Lets hope so! It should be nothing less that dumping underperforming disappointments  and making a run with guys that are focused on being champs. 

[Fatbat]

It seems like we are built more for playoffs than the regular season marathon. No one onthe roster seems like a bulldog built for a long fight. Just lots of short burst performances.  We need a shut down pitcher the most and to dump slumpy underperforming types. 

[KBJ1]

They need a right hand bat for LF to spark the offense (outside Rodriguez,  I see little hope there) Julien or Lee to step up and Pablo + someone to step it up, Stewart back healthy & Buxton to hit for power.

That's a lot of ifs. We can dream. But it's a long way from reality to dreams.

[LambchoP]

Other than Kepler I don't think we have anything a contending team would want. If they can find some way to dump Vasquez, Margot, Farmer or Theilbar and get anything at all in return, I'd call that a win. What the twins really need is starting pitching. Someone like Garrett Crochet, Jesus Luzardo. I just don't see them going for it this year. Too inconsistent.

[Brandon]

They are only trading Kepler if they are giving up on the season.  They will only owe 4-5 million for the rest of the season and they will make that back if they make the playoffs.  I’m sure the Twins would love to lower payroll more with the loss of TV revenue so early in the season.  But they also don’t want to lower their odds of making the playoffs either. 
 

I see them standing pat or maybe a small depth move or two.  I don’t see the Twins doing much because of how terrible the other veterans with salaries are doing this year outside of Correa and Buxton (Buxton on defense).  I guess Santana has some sort of value and could be salary dumped.  If Farmer goes on a tear maybe he could be salary dumped.  

[bean5302]

Buyers = teams attempting to improve their on field MLB product for the current year.
Standing pat = teams who neither significantly upgrade nor downgrade their current year team.
Sellers = teams willing to worsen their on field MLB product for the current year in an attempt to improve future years.

The Twins cannot be both buyers and sellers. I expect them to be buyers.

[old nurse]

9 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Buyers = teams attempting to improve their on field MLB product for the current year.
Standing pat = teams who neither significantly upgrade nor downgrade their current year team.
Sellers = teams willing to worsen their on field MLB product for the current year in an attempt to improve future years.

The Twins cannot be both buyers and sellers. I expect them to be buyers.

You can sell a left hand bat and buy a RH bat. You can sell an expiring contract and buy one .it all depends on the prospects offered, and if anyone likes the prospects you don’t 

[Doctor Gast]

I don't see Alonzo ever happening. Neither Kepler, because Twins value him much more than anyone else in the league. If no one wanted to give the Twins anything for him when he was worth something what makes you think they will now? Even if they are desperate. 

No teams will want any of our mistakes. Some competitive team that has a hole at catching might consider Vazquez but doing so we will create a larger hole for ourselves. When Vazquez came he offered us an upgrade in defense & all that is involved with that. More so offered Jeffers a solid base to pull himself out of the ashes. If we trade Vazquez we will have to pay down his salary & will lose the base for Jeffers to continue his ascent. We will have to find a solid replacement that'll most likely not as good defensively, maybe better offensively & expensive.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

2 hours ago, Linus said:

I don’t see much happening either. They aren’t going to add payroll so that really restricts what they can do. If you are contending I don’t think you can trade Kepler because we have nobody to take his place. They could really use a big bat but don’t really see a path forward for this type of trade. 

True.  It would seem rather silly to trade away Kepler, and then trade a bunch of prospects for a big bat.  While the bat could be bigger, it would seem a foolish use of resources. 

[garn from vancouver]

i see trimming of the excess rather than adding or subtracting by trades. move margot and farmer along to make room.

[DJL44]

22 minutes ago, garn from vancouver said:

i see trimming of the excess rather than adding or subtracting by trades. move margot and farmer along to make room.

They have a $7.5M commitment to Chris Paddack next season that they may want to get out of. I could see them bringing in a better starting pitcher and sending Paddack out as part of the return. The Angels will probably deal Tyler Anderson. The Twins could deal Paddack + a prospect for Anderson and then trade Anderson away in the offseason with little impact to their budget. Maybe they go nuts and send the Sheriff to Houston and get Verlander for the playoff run.

[Paul Walerius]

6 hours ago, DJL44 said:

They have a $7.5M commitment to Chris Paddack next season that they may want to get out of. I could see them bringing in a better starting pitcher and sending Paddack out as part of the return. The Angels will probably deal Tyler Anderson. The Twins could deal Paddack + a prospect for Anderson and then trade Anderson away in the offseason with little impact to their budget. Maybe they go nuts and send the Sheriff to Houston and get Verlander for the playoff run.

I don't see them trading Paddock.  Outside of 3 games (2 against Yankees) he has been pretty good, coming off of injury.  Yes he only has 3 QS, however, I feel like that is more of a coaching thing than him pitching poorly.   7 of 12 starts have been 3 or less runs and only 3 have been over 4 runs.   7 games he hasn't even thrown 90 pitches and only 2 of those did he get blown out.  

I am not saying he won't be traded in the offseason (although I doubt he would), just for sure not now.  

[Paul Walerius]

6 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

You can do both by trading from a strong area on the team to acquire help for a weak area on the team.  Just not sure that they have many strong spots on this team other than possibly relief pitching.  Could one of those stronger depth guys get us something to help in the way of a RH'ed hitting LF?

As for Kepler, I also doubt that they'd trade him.  The only team that may pay for his services would be the Braves IMO to fill in for the loss of Acuna.

They may overpay to get a bat like Kep and we have Rodriguez waiting in the wings.  (although 2025 is more likely for debut) 

 

[DocBauer]

They aren't trading Kepler. Not only is he a favorite, but moving him lowers OF defense, he's been one a very good offensive run since June/July last season. Maybe the best overall run of his career. While it might be SSS, he's actually hitting LHP well this year and should be playing daily and forget platooning RF.

The offense needs to step up. It's not bad, but not what was expected or hoped for. Lewis back makes a major difference. IMO, Larnach has FINALLY taken the step forward we've all been waiting for. He's been a bit limited in the OF due to his toe, but hopefully that starts to get better in the near future and he's able to play the field more. LF has been about league average this year due to Castro, Larnach, and a little bit of Kirilloff. I don't see corner OF as being a major need unless there is an injury. Miranda is looking like the player he was in 2022, and that we hoped for in 2023. I'd be shocked if Julien doesn't get in a groove and come back up and take over 2B fairly soon. And it's starting to look like Wallner is getting back to being the player we've seen the past 3yrs at all levels. I don't want to give up on Kirilloff, and I don't think the Twins have, but I can see Wallner replacing him come July. Lee might just replace Farmer at some point, though they've got to find room for him to play often, and not languish on the bench. Julien filling in some at 1B? More than enough bats to make DH much stronger than it's been.

I just don't see the Twins adding payroll for a rental bat and sacrificing any prospects when what they really need is the hitters on hand just performing as they are capable of.

In no particular order, I COULD see any of these happening:

1] The whole having a RH bat on the bench to help with platoons is a good idea. But it really only works well if that RH bat doesn't stink against RHP. That's not Margot, and I don't know if it's Martin yet. A cheap deal for a solid RH hitting OF who can actually hit RHP might be on the table.

2] IF Stewart has lingering issues, I can see an arm added. If Thielbar continues to be up and down with his performances, and Funderburk doesn't settle down on his control, I could see a LH arm added. BUT, a healthy Stewart, Varland as a pen option come September, Thielbar settling in, and Funderburk getting his control back, (he's got good stuff), might make this a moot point.

3] While I think this highly unlikely, if a team like the Marlins are going to move arms to build their bats for 2025 and beyond, it could be a surprising time to add a controllable arm. If the bidding doesn't get crazy, I can see prospects like Keaschall, Gonzalez, maybe Wallner or AK?, Rosario, Schobel, and a few others, with a solid arm included, in a deal. A 3 or 4 for 1 kind of deal that doesn't touch our top 3, or Festa, or Matthews, but makes about everyone else available, COULD happen in a surprise addition. 

The #1 and #2 moves are the most likely, IMO. And injuries could affect if they make any moves at all. But I think the talent on hand is what they're going to run with, a few roster changes happening here and there.

[Jocko87]

Quote

Because of irrational ownership-mandated payroll reductions

Is there an editor on the staff? Seriously, wtf?

[Brandon27]

Well if the twins front office weren't dumb and not trade away players like luis Gil and chase petty they could have one hell of rotation 

[bean5302]

13 hours ago, old nurse said:

You can sell a left hand bat and buy a RH bat. You can sell an expiring contract and buy one .it all depends on the prospects offered, and if anyone likes the prospects you don’t 

If you want to re-write the definition of words to mean something they don't, sure.

[AKTwinsFan]

They should trade for younger more aggressive players. Or just utilize the players they got and effectively fire sale the other underporforming veteran players to keep the younger talent they already have. Look to the future since this season doesn't have much promise.

[old nurse]

6 hours ago, bean5302 said:

If you want to re-write the definition of words to mean something they don't, sure.

Your definitions to meet your agenda 

[David Maro]

All I can say it is laughable to think this team will be a playoff team.

[SotaSports in NM]

12 hours ago, Brandon27 said:

Well if the twins front office weren't dumb and not trade away players like luis Gil and chase petty they could have one hell of rotation 

Dude, Luis Gil was a lottery ticket for the Yankees. That's what Johan Duran was for us, too...

I'm more beat up about Code Povich than Luis Gil. With Povich it was more obvious what he was.