The Big Question: Minnesota Twins Right Field

[Ted Schwerzler]

Guess who’s back? Back again? Max is back. Tell a friend.

Image courtesy of © Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

This offseason could have zeroed in on two veterans worthy of being traded. With the Minnesota Twins immediately coming out and playing poor, err, suggesting that payroll would drop, the contracts of both Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler were in the crosshairs. Ultimately, the front office flipped Polanco for solid value, but Kepler is still here playing out the final year of his contract extension.

Last season, Kepler owned a 121 OPS+, his highest total since the 2019 Bomba Squad season when he launched 36 juiced baseballs into the stands. It was a strong year for the German right fielder, but it wasn’t all rainbows and butterflies. Through 46 games, he owned a putrid .625 OPS with a .189 batting average. He was drawing the ire of fans everywhere, and conventional wisdom could have made him a candidate to be DFA’d.

Then he figured it out again. From that point forward, a period of 84 games, Kepler slashed .297/.368/.545. He had 17 doubles and 17 home runs while being among the best hitters in Rocco Baldelli’s lineup. Needing to replicate that for the duration of the 2024 season, it’s a relatively straightforward process for the Minnesota right fielder.

Through May, Kepler had a launch angle hovering around 12 degrees. He had produced nearly a 50% ground ball rate just a year prior. He has previously suggested that his goal was to drive the ball on the ground through the defense. That has almost always been the culprit whenever he’s been going bad in his career. From the point he turned his season around, Kepler owned nearly a 16-degree launch angle and supplemented that with a solid hard-hit rate.

Banning the shift would never fix the problem for a guy like Kepler. Mentally, it could have affected him as to where the defenders were standing, but there were very few hits to be had when putting the baseball on the ground. Major league players are outstanding, and slowing the progress of a batted ball will give them ample opportunity to generate outs. For Kepler, it wasn’t about going the other way or hitting through the shift but instead lifting over it.

As Kepler has been able to elevate the baseball and generate harder contact, he has seen that directly correlate to more productive batted balls. His 16.1% HR/FB rate last season was the second-best of his career (behind 2019’s 18%), and he combined that with a career-best hard-hit percentage (47.6%) as well as barrel rate (12.2%). The Twins continuing to implore Kepler to wallop the baseball with a slight upward trajectory is what will have him finding a new payday this offseason.

Defensively, Kepler has been among the better right fielder’s in the game for quite some time. That should continue in 2024, and Minnesota will benefit by having Byron Buxton patrolling centerfield on a routine basis. While Matt Wallner is not a defensive stalwart in left field, Manuel Margot can rotate in as a late-game replacement. Baldelli’s outfield configuration will look like a better version of the “Nothing Falls but Raindrops” group.

Ultimately, how much value Kepler provides to Minnesota in his 14th year with the organization will result from how much he wants to stick with a known process. As a veteran, the hope would be that he sees value in how his season turned a year ago, and the Twins getting something close to 150 games of that would have him getting MVP votes and All-Star consideration.

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[TopGunn#22]

We all want "Good Max" in 2024 and it seemed like he had finally figured out how to get back to lifting the ball the second half of last year.  I agree that the shift ban helped but only a little bit.  The thing about hitting, is that when things go well EVERYTHING seems to fall into place.  When they don't, things can go to hell in a handbasket quickly.  

If we get the "Good Max" in 2024, it will be tough to see him move on after the season. He will simply price himself out of Minnesota with Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins pushing for 2025.  As you stated, the key for Max is launch angle, I am looking forward to him launching balls into the right field stands early and often this season.  

[Parfigliano]

He is auditioning for free agency and a huge contract next year.  I expect his usual top level D and a big year with the bat.

[chpettit19]

This should be an interesting thread.

Hitting the ball hard and in the air is good even if it leads to a slight (don't ignore me saying slight when you yell at me about Ks) increase in Ks. It's what all the best hitters in baseball do (outside of the extreme outlier Arraez).

[Linus]

I was thinking the same thing. It will also be one of the more interesting story lines this year. No clue what to predict for Max in 2024. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

19 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

This should be an interesting thread.

Hitting the ball hard and in the air is good even if it leads to a slight (don't ignore me saying slight when you yell at me about Ks) increase in Ks. It's what all the best hitters in baseball do (outside of the extreme outlier Arraez).

I think I'll take a pass on this thread on my usual rants against SO's. Go Twins! 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

I am a big Kepler fan,  I also think he has figured something out.  In 21 at bats so far, and a .693 OPS he is not quite showing it.  Granted, he may be trying to work on something.  I am beginning to think he may be a player that takes a while to get in a groove and once there does well.   How quickly can he get to that point this year.  .700 is still better than what he did last spring,  but I want him in the .800 to .900 range this year.  

[Craig Arko]

I think the big question is: will Max still be here after the trade deadline?

[Doctor Gast]

I like Kepler, & I hope he has a great season. After '19 pitchers adjusted to the HR mentality which produced more FOs & SOs,  '20-'23, Kepler had a tough time readjusting. '23 Kepler decided to totally commit to the moonshot philosophy with great results. The pitchers will adjust, Twins are banking they won't. Hope I'm wrong.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Max Kepler is a puzzle to me (and to everyone else, the Twins, and probably to himself).  He has had basically 2 seasons of being really good and several seasons of being just barely OK and needing to play defense exceptionally enough to keep his job.  He seems to be a smart and dedicated guy as well.  So it seems crazy that his issue with hitting is some sort of conscious decision to try to hit in a way that will produce bad results.  I don’t really think he’s dense enough or stubborn enough or egotistical enough to do that.  Yet, last year in the middle of one of the worst stretches of his career, he catches fire and hits like crazy for 2/3 of a season.  Was there an unreported injury?  Did he take it upon himself be the guy who would single-handedly cure the team strikeout problem?  Was he trying too hard?  Good Max is great.  Bad Max is not.  Go Good Max!!! And don’t listen to anyone (even yourself) who suggests you change anything from last year’s approach. 

[MMMordabito]

If Kepler is "The Big Question" in right field, then, according to BRefs projected PA and Reliability projections, there are "Humungous Questions" at six of the other seven non-pitcher positions on the team.

[CRF]

There's no question about his defense, it's what he does at the plate, that needs stay at the same level as what he did the second half of last season. If he can do that, he's worthwhile. If he reverts to what he did in the first half last season, then he needs to ride some pine. I honestly thought he'd get traded this off season. I don't think his value had ever been higher. I do think he's finally a goner...either at the deadline, or after this season. No way they give him another contract.

[Parfigliano]

48 minutes ago, CRF said:

There's no question about his defense, it's what he does at the plate, that needs stay at the same level as what he did the second half of last season. If he can do that, he's worthwhile. If he reverts to what he did in the first half last season, then he needs to ride some pine. I honestly thought he'd get traded this off season. I don't think his value had ever been higher. I do think he's finally a goner...either at the deadline, or after this season. No way they give him another contract.

Someone will offer him the keys to the fault.  It wont be the Twins.

[bean5302]

The shift was not banned. It's frustrating to see misleading statements in print so often. The shift was limited. FWIW, no player had a bigger discrepancy between xBA and real batting average than Max Kepler, and teams employed shifts against Kepler more frequently than any other hitter in MLB prior to last year as I recall. The shifting absolutely hurt Kepler's production at the plate, arguably more than any other player in MLB. 

Teams didn't stop shifting against Kepler last year, either. Fangraphs recorded plate appearances as 32 (No shift) 280 (Shift). Teams still shifted against Kepler literally 90% of the time. The 10% they didn't were almost certainly times when there were runners on base.

Kepler talked about a strategy of just trying to hit the ball over the infield (in the air) to try and bypass the shift altogether. It helps, but Kepler's production will likely always be hindered at least somewhat by the shift. I'm not sure what to expect from Kepler going forward given the fact Kepler put up career high barrel rates, average exit velocity and hard hit rates last year. Clearly other MLB teams aren't sold on Kepler's turn around or he wouldn't be on the team at this point as somebody would have offered Falvey a return which couldn't be ignored this past offseason. 

Here's hoping Kepler tears it up this year. There's still even more ceiling in his game at the plate than what he's shown, but if he goes back to bouncing batted balls off the ground again, it's just going to be another quality regular starting position player season for him. 2 WAR floor 2.5-3.0 WAR good year, 4 WAR ceiling.

[rv78]

What would the offensive lineup of Twins players look like if they all had numbers from their best season?

C-Jeffers = 335PA, 14HR, .276BA, .369OBP

C-Vazquez = 345PA, .290BA, .330OBP

1B-Kirilloff = 281PA, .270BA, .348OBP

1B-Santana = 686PA, 34HR,  .281BA, .397OBP

2B-Julien = 408PA, 16HR, .263BA, .381OBP

3B-Lewis = 239PA, 15HR, .309BA, .372OBP

SS-Correa = 640PA, 26HR, .279BA .366OBP or 481PA, 24HR, .315BA, .391OBP

OF-Wallner = 254PA, 14HR, .249BA, .370OBP

OF-Buxton = 254PA, 19HR, .306BA, .358OBP or 511PA, 16HR, .253BA, .314OBP

OF-Kepler = 596PA, 36HR, .252BA, .336OBP

UT-Farmer = 529PA, 16HR, .263BA, .316OBP

UT-Castro = 409PA, 33SB, .257BA, .339OBP

There you have it.... the "best" of each player. Some are almost a guarantee they will never replicate it again, like Santana. There are those highly unlikely to ever do it again like Vazquez and Kepler. 2 players named Buxton and Correa need to perform like it, and the new core of Jeffers, Kirilloff, Julien, Lewis, and Wallner will need to continue with their success from last year. I'm more excited to see the 5 youngsters play and take over this team. What I don't want to see is another season of Buxton, Correa and Kepler drag this team down or hold them back like they did in 2023, and yes, Kepler did that for the first half of the year while Buck and C4 did it all year.

 

[JD-TWINS]

6 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

We all want "Good Max" in 2024 and it seemed like he had finally figured out how to get back to lifting the ball the second half of last year.  I agree that the shift ban helped but only a little bit.  The thing about hitting, is that when things go well EVERYTHING seems to fall into place.  When they don't, things can go to hell in a handbasket quickly.  

If we get the "Good Max" in 2024, it will be tough to see him move on after the season. He will simply price himself out of Minnesota with Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins pushing for 2025.  As you stated, the key for Max is launch angle, I am looking forward to him launching balls into the right field stands early and often this season.  

Shift ban didn’t change 50 games into the season - his approach to make loud contact v. protective contact is what changed. He was one of 5 guys in the entire game to have 30XBH & hit over .300 for the 2nd half. That’s very impressive!!! I expect a better start & not as good in 2nd half, with similar totals for the season as a whole. Fingers crossed.

[gman]

I don't see Kepler back after this year, like most others. If he hits 230 with 22 homers, I think thats the most we should expect.

[JD-TWINS]

8 minutes ago, rv78 said:

What would the offensive lineup of Twins players look like if they all had numbers from their best season?

C-Jeffers = 335PA, 14HR, .276BA, .369OBP

C-Vazquez = 345PA, .290BA, .330OBP

1B-Kirilloff = 281PA, .270BA, .348OBP

1B-Santana = 686PA, 34HR,  .281BA, .397OBP

2B-Julien = 408PA, 16HR, .263BA, .381OBP

3B-Lewis = 239PA, 15HR, .309BA, .372OBP

SS-Correa = 640PA, 26HR, .279BA .366OBP or 481PA, 24HR, .315BA, .391OBP

OF-Wallner = 254PA, 14HR, .249BA, .370OBP

OF-Buxton = 254PA, 19HR, .306BA, .358OBP or 511PA, 16HR, .253BA, .314OBP

OF-Kepler = 596PA, 36HR, .252BA, .336OBP

UT-Farmer = 529PA, 16HR, .263BA, .316OBP

UT-Castro = 409PA, 33SB, .257BA, .339OBP

There you have it.... the "best" of each player. Some are almost a guarantee they will never replicate it again, like Santana. There are those highly unlikely to ever do it again like Vazquez and Kepler. 2 players named Buxton and Correa need to perform like it, and the new core of Jeffers, Kirilloff, Julien, Lewis, and Wallner will need to continue with their success from last year. I'm more excited to see the 5 youngsters play and take over this team. What I don't want to see is another season of Buxton, Correa and Kepler drag this team down or hold them back like they did in 2023.

 

Good news is Wallner - Kirilloff - Jeffers - Julien - Lewis - Castro all had their best years last year!!! …….If 4 of the 6 repeat or better their numbers & if CC - Buxton - Kepler - Santana - Vazquez - Farmer are average, things are looking up!

[Joe A. Preusser]

11 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

He is auditioning for free agency and a huge contract next year.  I expect his usual top level D and a big year with the bat.

This is a great take.  I would love for Kep to destroy the ball this year and earn 100+M next off-season.  Everybody wins.

[Jocko87]

This may sound odd, but I think we may have had good Kepler all year last year.  He struggled coming back from an IL stint in late May for the hamstring and apparently had a heart to heart with Rocco mid season but it also matches recovery from a hamstring. 

The mention of launch angle reminded me of a post I made last season, May 7th to be exact.  I don't post it to boast, because I also was ready to give up on Max midseason and had forgotten, but because I wanted to look back at the numbers I had snipped. 

When compared to the year end numbers everything is stable, still well up from his best years and the launch angle came around.  Barrel, Hard Hit and Sweet spot % were all career highs, just as they were pacing in early May.  My theory at the time was that the lack of launch angle was hurting production and that he was actually playing very well at the time.  He immediately followed my proclamation with 6 horrible weeks and I felt dumbish.

I'm starting to look at 2023 Kepler as a solid overall season with a horrible stretch in May and June that in hindsight was probably highly effected by the IL stint for the hamstring from 05/13 - 05/29.  I think its probably more accurate than crappy first half, amazing second half.  He's a very good baseball player.

[mikelink45]

I suspect that Max would be gone if other teams valued him as much as our FO.  The trade Max and drop payroll theme has been two years now.  Maybe he goes by the end of ST.  But part of the issue is who takes his spot?  When Polanco was traded it a situation where we had so many 2B that it was hard to see where we would play them all.  

I think Max is a FA, I do not see an in-season trade.  Out hope is that we will have Jenkins ready to bust out in 25

[AlGoreRythm]

11 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

This may sound odd, but I think we may have had good Kepler all year last year.  He struggled coming back from an IL stint in late May for the hamstring and apparently had a heart to heart with Rocco mid season but it also matches recovery from a hamstring. 

The mention of launch angle reminded me of a post I made last season, May 7th to be exact.  I don't post it to boast, because I also was ready to give up on Max midseason and had forgotten, but because I wanted to look back at the numbers I had snipped. 

When compared to the year end numbers everything is stable, still well up from his best years and the launch angle came around.  Barrel, Hard Hit and Sweet spot % were all career highs, just as they were pacing in early May.  My theory at the time was that the lack of launch angle was hurting production and that he was actually playing very well at the time.  He immediately followed my proclamation with 6 horrible weeks and I felt dumbish.

I'm starting to look at 2023 Kepler as a solid overall season with a horrible stretch in May and June that in hindsight was probably highly effected by the IL stint for the hamstring from 05/13 - 05/29.  I think its probably more accurate than crappy first half, amazing second half.  He's a very good baseball player.

I believe this was also the IL stint where he came back without a rehab assignment. Seems to back the idea as he'd have been catching back up to game speed in the Majors for a bit after the injury.

[Trov]

My concern for Kepler is he had a great second half, MVP level if played a full year.  However, he has been around for years.  You do not just figure it out at age 30.  I think he was just on a nice hot run for a few months, In the playoffs he did okay, not like he had been.  He struck out 25% of the time, 1 walk and had 2 doubles and 3 singles with 1 run scored. Sure, we are not likely to make playoffs without his second half, but I am not expecting him to carry his second half into this year.  If he does, great, but do not count on it.  Expect he will be his normal self. He will be a good defender with stretches of good hitting and stretches of bad hitting ending with an average season basically. 

[saviking]

22 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Max Kepler is a puzzle to me (and to everyone else, the Twins, and probably to himself).  He has had basically 2 seasons of being really good and several seasons of being just barely OK and needing to play defense exceptionally enough to keep his job.  He seems to be a smart and dedicated guy as well.  So it seems crazy that his issue with hitting is some sort of conscious decision to try to hit in a way that will produce bad results.  I don’t really think he’s dense enough or stubborn enough or egotistical enough to do that.  Yet, last year in the middle of one of the worst stretches of his career, he catches fire and hits like crazy for 2/3 of a season.  Was there an unreported injury?  Did he take it upon himself be the guy who would single-handedly cure the team strikeout problem?  Was he trying too hard?  Good Max is great.  Bad Max is not.  Go Good Max!!! And don’t listen to anyone (even yourself) who suggests you change anything from last year’s approach. 

Max got off to a slow start this spring but is starting to hit now. I just hope he gets off to a hot start thus year because he seems to let failure get into his head and prolongs his slumps. I guess you you could say that about a lot of players though.

[Eric Blonigen]

Kepler has had two great seasons - 2019 and 2023. He demonstrated the same approach both seasons. And, in the second half of 2023, he APPEARED to be having the most fun of his career. There were multiple times he showboated a HR or a double off the wall. He also seemed happier, with multiple clips of him smiling and laughing with his teammates rather than being as stoic as he has normally been. As a pending free agent, I’ll bet he continues with what will potentially get him a $100M contract as opposed to trying to be the player he would like to be, stylistically. I’m a believer for this year and beyond (for another team).