TRADE: Twins Send Jorge Polanco to Mariners in Five-Player Deal

[PseudoSABR]

Just now, Dman said:

I knew Seattle had to be happy to get rid of DeScalfini, but since they gave the Twins a top 100 prospect I didn't see much money coming back.  The more money that comes back the more likely the Twins do another deal.  This deal could look better in the end will have to wait and see.

6 million plus more cash? I'm more than very surprised.  

Let's see where they use those additional funds.  Wouldn't be great to see a TV deal announced by Feb 1?!

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, PseudoSABR said:

You got it wrong. Seattle is sending money to Minnesota.

[sweetmusicviola16]

6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

A reliver, a top 100 prospect, and a flyer prospect..... What were people expecting for a guy that hasn't been healthy in several years? 

Maybe a hard initial reaction is a normal thing when a longtime fan favorite has just been traded away. Even as the trade sinks in with me I like it more than I did at first glance. Though I do hope that DeSclafani gets traded sooner than later. LOL

[PseudoSABR]

1 minute ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Where in that post did I advocate for unloading all prospects? You don't have to push this into absurdity. 

I don't think I'm "cherry picking," anymore than the group that's celebrating a return headlined by a top 100 prospect. YMMV

Let me get this straight:  It's stupid to acquire top 100 prospects (or prospects in general), but it's prudent to hold on to them?  Either you value (top 100) prospects or you don't.  Even Martin's and SWR's future aren't yet written in stone, and you speak as if they are.  

[wabene]

If the season started today, Louie is in AAA preparing as a starter. Waiting his turn. 

[2wins87]

My first reaction is that it is a good return for Polanco, but I don't love the fit with DeSclafani, who is the main piece for next year.

I would have been fine trading Polo for prospects if those prospects allowed for another trade for a starting pitcher in some way.

Gonzalez is a borderline top 100 prospect.  He was in the top 100 for MLB, but just outside for BA, and I suspect most other outlets.  It seems like a good bat, but there are enough questions with his defense and aggressive approach that I don't think I would like him as the headliner without the other pieces.

Bowen is kind of a throw in but probably top 30 for the Twins.

Topa actually could be a sneaky good get for the Twins.  He is already 32, and maybe the breakout last year will fade.  But if the breakout was for real he fills a need in the bullpen.

DeSclafani...

He provides depth, which they need.  But I don't like him better than Varland for the rotation.  He should not sniff a playoff roster.  I'm afraid they'll just stick with him too long "for depth" even if he's not good.  It's not really the kind of depth they need.

[lukeduke1980]

8 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

A reliver, a top 100 prospect, and a flyer prospect..... What were people expecting for a guy that hasn't been healthy in several years? 

Was going to make this point.  I loved watching Polanco especially in clutch situations but he played more than 105 games 3 out of 8 years less 2020.  We have too much of that on this team 

[PseudoSABR]

Just now, wabene said:

If the season started today, Louie is in AAA preparing as a starter. Waiting his turn. 

You could be right, with the acquisition of both a starting and relieving pitcher, but it's hard to ignore is production in the bullpen.

[chpettit19]

Not surprised to see Polanco dealt. Not surprised he went to Seattle. Expected both things. Disappointed that the best pieces coming back are a 33 year old reliever and 20 year old prospect with plate discipline concerns and limited projectability. Yes, I know he's a top-100 guy on MLB's list, but Fangraphs has him as a 40+ FV guy.

I'm with @DocBauer and would've much rather seen the Twins be the ones to send money and prospect(s) to get a legit arm for the rotation. DeSclafani accomplishes the goal of pushing Varland into the Ober role (I don't think they're putting him in the pen to start the year), but he's no better than the Happ/Shoemaker/Archer/Bundy signings I hoped we were past.

I fully expect more moves to be made, and hopefully that makes this move look better. But, to me, all they did tonight was turn an 87 win team into an 84 win team. Yes, Julien is likely taking on the 2B job, but there's no way they were planning on Buxton being a fulltime DH again, and Polanco was going to be the DH and 2 hole hitter on this team. They turned their 2 hole hitter into a prospect who flopped in A+ ball and a middle reliever. I don't think they got too little value for Polanco, but I don't see how this is anything but a downgrade for the 2024 team. And I'm not a fan of any move that takes a playoff team and makes it worse. But, again, I fully expect them to make more moves so they have the chance to do some things to improve the team from here on out. Let's hope they do it.

[Fatbat]

Got a few thoughts about this.

1. who cares if it’s basically a salary wash if it makes the ‘24 team better. 

2. It addresses our need for SP depth in the short term… for better or worse. 
3. It better defines where the FO is heading with the infield and who they expect to contribute going forward.

4. It reshapes the clubhouse more than the daily lineup. 
 

[LewFordLives]

As far as I'm concerned the Twins still need to add a starter.  DeScalfani might be cooked. I assume the Twins had to take him to help out Seattle's payroll.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't love this for this year, but the RP is likely more valuable than the starter. Frankly, I'd deal the starter for a PTBNL and not start him.....

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, LewFordLives said:

As far as I'm concerned the Twins still need to add a starter.  DeScalfani might be cooked. I assume the Twins had to take him to help out Seattle's payroll.

That's my guess also. 

[PseudoSABR]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

But, to me, all they did tonight was turn an 87 win team into an 84 win team.

No way is Polanco worth 3 wins more than Julien, Lee, etc at 2nd and the addition of Topa to the bullpen, and adding another above replacement level starter to give more flexibility.  

Again, those who don't like the trade, what other trade that added wins this year or better future value could be had? It's all just naysaying. 

[PseudoSABR]

2 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

As far as I'm concerned the Twins still need to add a starter.  DeScalfani might be cooked. I assume the Twins had to take him to help out Seattle's payroll.

Maybe, and it's still a good deal.  The Twins will roster the guy, and let the depth sort itself, which actually has value.

[jmlease1]

Considering where the Twins are (a playoff team trying to make a push to be a championship team, or at least that's how they should be viewing themselves), it's always going to be a little underwhelming to trade a quality MLB player, and the best player right now in exchange for multiple pieces. I don't love DeSclafani (which seems to be a consensus), but he does give us more starting pitching depth. Topa actually looks like a good fit, but middle relievers aren't usually that impactful even if they are necessary. So there's a lot riding on Gonzalez, and while he's talented...he's still an A-ball prospect, so there's a lot of risk. It's not really what I was hoping for in moving Polanco, a player that I still really like, even with Julien and others staking their claims on 2B.

Does this give the Twins more pieces to move for a higher quality starter? I think it does, especially because some of the players at the top of our prospect list looks like guys the Twins aren't interested in flipping for guys that might only have 1-2 years with the Twins because of the potential for stardom in the prospects. I certainly wouldn't be interested in flipping any of our top 3 prospects for mediocre starting pitching.

It's not an awful return or anything...but it doesn't fix the real need for higher end starting pitching, so the net effect is more about saving payroll, which sucks.

[sweetmusicviola16]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Not surprised to see Polanco dealt. Not surprised he went to Seattle. Expected both things. Disappointed that the best pieces coming back are a 33 year old reliever and 20 year old prospect with plate discipline concerns and limited projectability. Yes, I know he's a top-100 guy on MLB's list, but Fangraphs has him as a 40+ FV guy.

I'm with @DocBauer and would've much rather seen the Twins be the ones to send money and prospect(s) to get a legit arm for the rotation. DeSclafani accomplishes the goal of pushing Varland into the Ober role (I don't think they're putting him in the pen to start the year), but he's no better than the Happ/Shoemaker/Archer/Bundy signings I hoped we were past.

I fully expect more moves to be made, and hopefully that makes this move look better. But, to me, all they did tonight was turn an 87 win team into an 84 win team. Yes, Julien is likely taking on the 2B job, but there's no way they were planning on Buxton being a fulltime DH again, and Polanco was going to be the DH and 2 hole hitter on this team. They turned their 2 hole hitter into a prospect who flopped in A+ ball and a middle reliever. I don't think they got too little value for Polanco, but I don't see how this is anything but a downgrade for the 2024 team. And I'm not a fan of any move that takes a playoff team and makes it worse. But, again, I fully expect them to make more moves so they have the chance to do some things to improve the team from here on out. Let's hope they do it.

Great analysis. I agree, some more moves are likely on the horizon. They need to be. We have lost around 15-16 WAR from last season. Topa is now the very first positive addition we have made. I like getting him, but even he comes with a question mark.Is he going to e a one time wonder as he has next to zero succesful play aside from 2024. We shall see how all of this plays out.

[harmony55]

17 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Well I said I would say I'm wrong if the Twins traded Polanco for less than his worth to the Twins and it feels like that just happened, so .... I was wrong. 

Harmony55, you have continually championed Seattle and their players. I questioned how you felt DeSclafani had any worth and suggested that Trader Jerry would dump him. Did not suspect the foil. Questioned how you felt that Urias, Rojas, etc. were a representative group at 2B and 3B. I was sure Dipoto was after Jorge all offseason but did not suspect Polanco going so cheaply. Seattle moved much closer to AL West contention tonight and i will be watching some late night games. Polanco will be in the three hole for the Mariners. Hard to believe that Dipoto gets Polanco for a decent middle relief pitcher, a guy the Giants wanted to cut, and two prospects  who we shall be patient with as they hopefully develop.

Hey maybe DeSclafani rises from the ashes, but if the Twins use him above Louie Varland it will cost the Twins. There are still weeks to go before the season begins and I will be hopeful for a trade to improve the team. Right now, my personal projection system moved the Twins from 87 wins (+/- 5)  this morning to 85 victories tonight for the 2024 season. 

Those of you who wanted Polanco traded asap for a relief pitcher, any prospects, or whatever sure guessed correctly. 

 

I was just as wrong. We all tend to overvalue the players on our favorite team. From my perspective* the Mariners overpaid for Jorge Polanco by giving up a Top 80 prospect and a solid reliever. 

At any rate I am grateful for the civil and meaningful discourse on Twins Daily.

Jorge Polanco has a new fan.

* and FWIW the perspective of Baseball Trade Values

[wabene]

6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I don't love this for this year, but the RP is likely more valuable than the starter. Frankly, I'd deal the starter for a PTBNL and not start him.....

They could easily move Anthony D with the cash and then they have the salary room... 

[chpettit19]

17 minutes ago, PseudoSABR said:

No way is Polanco worth 3 wins more than Julien, Lee, etc at 2nd and the addition of Topa to the bullpen, and adding another above replacement level starter to give more flexibility.  

Again, those who don't like the trade, what other trade that added wins this year or better future value could be had? It's all just naysaying. 

DeSclafani isn't a replacement level starter, and even if he is I don't want him. He shouldn't be in the rotation for a team trying to win baseball games in 2024. Polanco would've hit 2 hole on opening day. If you want to bank on Lee stepping in and producing a 115+ OPS+ be my guest, but considering he was at about 78 in AAA I'm not going to bet on it. DH is a spot in the lineup. I don't care about just 2B. The Twins just traded one of their 4 or 5 best hitters and replaced him with a guy barely holding onto his job as a #5 starter and a 33 year old reliever with 1 good MLB season. They made the 2024 team worse tonight. But, as I said, they still have the chance to improve it with more moves.

Again, as I said and you just ignored, I would've added prospects and money to Polanco to get a better arm. It's not "just naysaying" because I don't just blindly fall in love with a borderline top-100 prospect because he's on 1 top-100 list. Have you read the scouting reports about him? Even the good ones have worries about his plate discipline and ability to stay in shape. He's 20 years old and they already think he can't stay in shape. He gets 40+ FV on Fangraphs. That's a replacement level player. You like the trade. That's totally fine. I don't. Also totally fine. But my opinion on it isn't "just naysaying." It's thought out and reasoned.

[DocBauer]

I'm behind on reading as I just off work and will have to catch up. And if someone touched on this, sorry to be repeating.

But I did a really quick injury check on DeScalfini and saw that he had a bad ankle in 2022 that is probably the reason his year was so poor and so brief. He began 2023 with a very good ERA and solid start through April, I believe I read, before his elbow started to flare up with what they said was a grade 1 elbow strain, whatever that entails. He thew longer to poor results, and was shut down to receive plasma rich platelet injections. He was basically shut down for the year at that point.

[tony&rodney]

11 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Got a few thoughts about this.

1. who cares if it’s basically a salary wash if it makes the ‘24 team better. 

2. It addresses our need for SP depth in the short term… for better or worse. 
3. It better defines where the FO is heading with the infield and who they expect to contribute going forward.

4. It reshapes the clubhouse more than the daily lineup. 
 

1. The team is worse off tonight than it was this morning. 

2. DeSclafani has bottomed out. Now we need to be open that any pitcher could contribute, but think Bundy. If Varland is not starting the team is worse off. 

3. The guy who bats in your three hole is gone and the return cannot make up the difference.

4. Polanco was among the most popular of players in the clubhouse due to his humility and friendliness. I'm concerned that Max Kepler make ask for a trade.

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

DeSclafani isn't a replacement level starter. He shouldn't be in the rotation for a team trying to win baseball games in 2024. Polanco would've hit 2 hole on opening day. If you want to bank on Lee stepping in and producing a 115+ OPS+ be my guest, but considering he was at about 78 in AAA I'm not going to bet on it. DH is a spot in the lineup. I don't care about just 2B. The Twins just traded one of their 4 or 5 best hitters and replaced him with a guy barely holding onto his job as a #5 starter and a 33 year old reliever with 1 good MLB season. They made the 2024 team worse tonight. But, as I said, they still have the chance to improve it with more moves.

Again, as I said and you just ignored, I would've added prospects and money to Polanco to get a better arm. It's not "just naysaying" because I don't just blinding fall in love with a borderline top-100 prospect because he's on 1 top-100 list. Have you read the scouting reports about him? Even the good ones have worries about his plate discipline and ability to stay in shape. He's 20 years old and they already think he can't stay in shape. He gets 40+ FV on Fangraphs. That's a replacement level player. You like the trade. That's totally fine. I don't. Also totally fine. But my opinion on it isn't "just naysaying." It's thought out and reasoned.

Is that arm available from a team that wants Polanco? No idea, but I'm hard pressed to find such a team right now. 

[KirbyDome89]

11 minutes ago, PseudoSABR said:

Let me get this straight:  It's stupid to acquire top 100 prospects (or prospects in general), but it's prudent to hold on to them?  Either you value (top 100) prospects or you don't.  Even Martin's and SWR's future aren't yet written in stone, and you speak as if they are.  

Where, in any of my posts, are you reading that prospects lack all value? Point to it, or stop with these weird tangential arguments. Valuing prospects and not wanting to trade for them right now aren't mutually exclusive. 

Is it stupid, in a vacuum, to swap Jorge Polanco for a top 100 prospect? No. Do we operate in a vacuum? Also, no. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

Anyway wishing for the very very best for Jorge Polanco as he starts a new chapter in his career. Thanks for your time as a Twin Jorge.

[wabene]

I'm hoping Anthony D is moved and a better starter is pushing Varland to AAA. Listening to Varland on G&G he now truly sounds open to either role. He just wants to be in the show. Personally I want to see him get one more real shot as a starter. 

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Is that arm available from a team that wants Polanco? No idea, but I'm hard pressed to find such a team right now. 

I have no idea, but we don't know that it isn't. If DeSclafani is worth having in a starting rotation why couldn't Seattle have been that team? Miami has openly stated they're willing to trade pitching for hitting, and they are always cheap so are into prospects, why couldn't they be a possibility? Would Milwaukee trade Burnes for Polanco+ since they need offense and likely don't want to lose Burnes for nothing after the year? There's always possibilities.

And if it's not available I'd much rather have just kept Polanco to hit in the 2 hole and OPS+ 115 than trade him for a middle reliever and a guy who belongs nowhere near a playoff rotation at this point in his career.

[RpR]

We won the first post season game in a looooooong time in 2023; I guess we will just have to wait for a loooooong time for it to happen again, now.

Gray is gone, Maeda is gone, Polanco is gone; Buxton is healthy, Correa is healthy, that does not make up for lack of pitching or the lack of Polanco's bat.

[Jocko87]

I'm just amazed at Flavine having the stones to say, in addition to that $6 m we are going to need an extra A ball reliever.  It's like taking a handful of candy on the way out the door when you close your bank account. 

[Fatbat]

4 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

1. The team is worse off tonight than it was this morning. 

2. DeSclafani has bottomed out. Now we need to be open that any pitcher could contribute, but think Bundy. If Varland is not starting the team is worse off. 

3. The guy who bats in your three hole is gone and the return cannot make up the difference.

4. Polanco was among the most popular of players in the clubhouse due to his humility and friendliness. I'm concerned that Max Kepler make ask for a trade.

I understand all that and you are not wrong. This whole offseason has been full of question marks and there are many more now that this trade is happening.