Can Carlos Correa Get Back on Track for the Hall of Fame?

[Cody Christie]

Carlos Correa had a nightmare season in 2023, but fans can hope he is past his plantar fasciitis injury. Can he get back on track for a future induction into Cooperstown?

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Joe Mauer is in his first year of eligibility for the National Baseball Hall of Fame, and Twins fans have monitored the votes as the writers have slowly revealed them. He has a strong chance to be selected on the first ballot. However, even if he falls short during the current voting cycle, he will almost assuredly be elected next year. Mauer would join a strong contingent of former Twins players in the Hall of Fame, including Harmon Killebrew, Tony Oliva, Jim Kaat, Bert Blyleven, and Kirby Puckett. So, who will be the next Twins Hall of Fame electee following Mauer?

MLB.com’s Mike Petriello attempted to identify how many potential Hall of Famers fans will see play in 2024. For the piece, he identified 40 names, which is a nice round number, but it leaves some room at the edges for other candidates. In his piece, he tiers the players into different categories, including no-doubters; veterans who are well on their way; Shohei Ohtani; and young players on the way. No Twins player cracked his top 40, with the most obvious omission being Carlos Correa.

Correa won’t turn 30 until next September, and has already accumulated more than 40 WAR for his career. This total puts him ahead of other players on the top-40 list who are older than him, including Trea Turner and Alex Bregman. Obviously, 2023 was tough, and his 1.4 WAR was lower than in any other season, even the shortened 2020 campaign. Correa is still in the prime of his career, and Twins fans certainly hope he has some big seasons left in the tank.

Correa’s résumé already includes many items voters prefer when checking a player’s name on the ballot. He was the first overall pick in the 2012 MLB Draft, won the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2015, was selected to multiple All-Star teams, won the 2021 Platinum Glove, and has enjoyed extensive playoff success. It’s certainly the start of a Hall of Fame career, but he will need to continue to produce on both sides of the ball.

Jay Jaffe created the JAWS system to measure a player’s worthiness for the Hall of Fame. He averages a player's total WAR with their seven-year peak WAR to get a score that balances longevity with peak greatness. JAWS allows fans to compare players from different eras, while also establishing a quantitative baseline for Hall induction. Correa enters the 2024 season with the 36th-highest JAWS total among shortstops (39.4). There have been 23 Hall of Famers elected at shortstop, and their average JAWS is 55.4, but there are some outliers on the high end (Honus Wagner, 98.2 JAWS) and low end, with some players elected from the Negro Leagues. 

Jimmy Rollins is an interesting comp for Correa at this point in his career. According to JAWS, Rollins ranks only two spots ahead of Correa and is currently on the Hall of Fame ballot. He is in his third year of eligibility and has slowly gained support, going from 9.4% in 2022 to 12.9% in 2023. Currently, he sits above 14% on the ballots that have been revealed. That’s a long way from the 75% needed for induction, but it shows the level Correa has already achieved, with all of his 30s left for him to continue adding to his résumé. 

Historically, there are milestones a player can reach to make his Hall of Fame candidacy an almost automatic success. Some of those markers are 3,000 hits, 500 home runs, or a .300+ batting average. Correa passed 1,000 hits for his career last season, and finished the campaign with 1,051. He has averaged 135 hits per season with the Twins, so it's out of the question that he'll reach 3,000 hits, but 2,000 might be plausible. Home runs and a high batting average (at least by broad historical standards) also aren’t part of Correa’s repertoire. He enters next season with 173 home runs and a .272 batting average. Voters will likely need to consider Correa’s defensive numbers to paint a complete picture of his Cooperstown case. 

Players see a natural decline in the WAR total through aging in the second half of their careers. There will also be a time when Correa can no longer handle the rigors of shortstop, and will be forced to move to a different defensive position. Other Hall of Fame players have shifted from shortstop to third base to continue providing value while moving down the defensive spectrum. It will also be interesting to see how voters treat players associated with the Astros' cheating scandal. Carlos Beltrán, a player on that team, seemed like a lock for Cooperstown, but he finished last year's balloting at 46.5%. Correa will be able to watch how voters treat players like Beltrán and José Altuve before he gets to the ballot.

Correa wouldn’t be a Hall of Famer if his career ended today, but his résumé certainly ranks among the top 40 players currently playing. Do you think Correa will have a strong Hall of Fame case at the conclusion of his career? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[RpR]

He has to string together a LOT of well above average years to do so.

[TwinsDr2021]

IMO, he is going to have to pick it up, because being compared to Lindor and Machado is going to hurt him (as of right now).

On a different note, I have to disagree with Petriello on letting this generation of pitchers in because they have to elect somebody. How can you elect the likes of Sale/Wheeler/Burnes/Nola and leave out pitchers like Johan? It seems like all the older pitchers that have just missed would have been just as good as the current pitchers if they would have been asked to do less.

 

[nicksaviking]

33 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

IMO, he is going to have to pick it up, because being compared to Lindor and Machado is going to hurt him (as of right now).

On a different note, I have to disagree with Petriello on letting this generation of pitchers in because they have to elect somebody. How can you elect the likes of Sale/Wheeler/Burnes/Nola and leave out pitchers like Johan? It seems like all the older pitchers that have just missed would have been just as good as the current pitchers if they would have been asked to do less.

 

Pitching changes with the generations. It wouldn't be accurate to compare them as they're being asked to do different things.

I'm sure Walter Johnson and Cy Young supporters said the same things about Whitey Ford and Bob Feller.

[Schmoeman5]

Back on track? I didn't know he was on track for a HOF career. He was replaced almost seamlessly in Houston by Pena. No knock on Pena but I don't know how hard the Astros went after Correa to retain him. A better comp for Correa would be Seager. They both come up around the same time. Seagers WAR is 32 Correas 36. Is Seager on track for the Hall? He has a WS ring too.Correa can't have anymore 2023 type seasons. Regardless of injuries. 

[Riverbrian]

9 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Pitching changes with the generations. It wouldn't be accurate to compare them as they're being asked to do different things.

I'm sure Walter Johnson and Cy Young supporters said the same things about Whitey Ford and Bob Feller.

I'm not even going to be greedy with him. 

If he can just produce his career averages... It would be a needed boost to our overall. 

25 dingers... .820 OPS would be just fine with me. 

 

[Blyleven2011]

Correa won't hit 500 homers or maybe not 3000 hits , but  ...

Correa is a good defensive shortstop  with a cannon arm  ...

On offense  he needs to pick up more rbis , runs scored per year , be a clutch hitter and lead the team  , he's a good teammate  and most players respect him except the dodgers ...

everyone says you start to decline at a certain age  , but there are exceptions  that some players  just continue on pace ,  who  knows maybe he'll start hitting 200 hits per year ...

If he can win mvps , allstar selections , gold gloves that will help his status for the hall of fame ...

In any case if he hits around 280 and plays great defense for his career he will be considered for the HOF ...

[MMMordabito]

All he needs is to eventually have three of AJ Hinch, Rocco Baldelli, Joe Pohlad or Jim Crane on the Veteran's Committee.  Worked for Harold Baines.

[FilthyMogwai]

I didn't see him as a HOFer, so I've been surprised by the number of videos and articles that I've seen online suggesting that due to his career WAR and age, he's on a HOF track.

Just another example of where WAR and I disagree.

[tony&rodney]

This season should tell people where Correa is headed for the next few years. Hopefully, the foot and all minor aches, pains, and little injuries are completely healed and that Carlos enters the year at 100% health. Plantar fasciitis is brutal, but Correa managed to fight through the year. Fully healthy and with a stronger lineup all around him, perhaps we see CC go back to career averages or better. Then folks can revisit his candidacy in five years time.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

The question is, when you look at his career body of work, was he the best (or nearly so) at his position in his generation of players.  If that answer is yes, then he is certainly on a HOF track.  If the answer is no, then he'll get some votes and stick around for a couple of years but never be close (aka Torii Hunter).  He's going to need to continue to compile for a few more years to know for sure.  I would say this, if he is still earning his salary by the end of his contract, he'll definitely be on the right path. 

As fans, we give a lot more weight to what a player did in the past year or two, and often don't look at the overall picture.  Hall of Fame voters are more likely to look at the big picture, as well as peak years and longevity.  I don't know if he will get in or not, but he's the most likely Twin at this point and I think it will be close.

[sweetmusicviola16]

On track for HOF? Better just get on track for being a more valuable commodity for the Twins.

imo, this guy is about to fall off the cliff. His career is headed downward. Mets and Giants probably knew a bit of what they were doing.

[RpR]

17 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

On track for HOF? Better just get on track for being a more valuable commodity for the Twins.

imo, this guy is about to fall off the cliff. His career is headed downward. Mets and Giants probably knew a bit of what they were doing.

Unless he falls apart with the bat like Simmons did, he is NOT going downward and he is too young for that .

[chpettit19]

I think his lack of games from 2017-2019 put a pretty big hole in his HOF candidacy already. He'll have to have a pretty incredible stretch through his early 30s to get on a HOF track. Wouldn't at all be surprised to see him last a year or 2 on the ballot, but I don't think he's really been on a HOF track to this point because he played 352 games during a 4 year stretch from 2017-2020 (2020 obviously not being his fault at all). If he'd put up career norm numbers over 150+ games during that stretch he'd be in a pretty good position to make a run at the HOF, but I don't think he can get there on longevity and his peak was cut down by injuries so he doesn't really have a great 6 or 7 year stretch to point to.

[Karbo]

Wow, some serious Correa bashers on here. I don't know how things will turn out for HOF, but I sure am glad the Twins signed him!

[tony&rodney]

Don't give a #*&@ about the Hall of Fame, but Carlos Correa is a mighty fine baseball player. The amount I pay for a game is not determined at all by his salary, so forget his contract and try to enjoy a magnificent shortstop playing for our Minnesota Twins. 

[nicksaviking]

10 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I think his lack of games from 2017-2019 put a pretty big hole in his HOF candidacy already. He'll have to have a pretty incredible stretch through his early 30s to get on a HOF track. Wouldn't at all be surprised to see him last a year or 2 on the ballot, but I don't think he's really been on a HOF track to this point because he played 352 games during a 4 year stretch from 2017-2020 (2020 obviously not being his fault at all). If he'd put up career norm numbers over 150+ games during that stretch he'd be in a pretty good position to make a run at the HOF, but I don't think he can get there on longevity and his peak was cut down by injuries so he doesn't really have a great 6 or 7 year stretch to point to.

Yeah, the lack of games was already going to hurt his stats.

And we probably also should consider the difficulty Carlos Beltran is having getting votes. He'd probably have been in on the first ballot had it not been for the whole trashcan bit.

[Schmoeman5]

55 minutes ago, RpR said:

Unless he falls apart with the bat like Simmons did, he is NOT going downward and he is too young for that .

Can't dispute those hard data points.

[mikelink45]

He will make the Twins HOF.  But he is not the generational SS talent that is there or even close at this point.  Right now Lewis has a HOF start - not a track to HOF, but a showy beginning with great stories and stories do help.  After all isn't MVP really a story season?  Or ROY?  

I would love to see another HOF career in MN.  But the team HOF is still a great accomplishment and if we do not trade him and he plays another 3 - 5 years Polanco will be honored too. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Seems a tad silly.  The average HOF WAR is between 50 and 70,  Correa is sitting at 40.  If you expect him to put up 1 WAR or less in the next few years then yes.  However,  his steamer is a 3.4 WAR for 2024.  I honestly wouldn't be surprised at a 4-5 WAR.  Any down year he has immediately bounce back.  I think the plantar fasciitis, and a bit of free swinging hurt him last year.  I think the bats will be much better this year.   The one concern I do have is that I don't think Correa does well in the cold weather, so is prone to slow starts.   So wait and see, but Buxton is more of a ? to me than the performance of Correa.  All he needs is 2 really good years,  4-5 War,  2 good years,  2-3 War,  and 4  years of 1 WAR.  That is 19 more WAR and puts him firmly in the HOF discussion.  Now if he can lead the Twins deep into the playoffs and a possibly WS like Puckett, with his other WS in Houston I think he would be a lock.  Yes those are lofty goals,  but I think that is what the Twins envisioned when they signed him.  The pitching is really starting to round into shape and I think the hitters will do very well this year, with more quality players on the farm.   I think in a year or Two we will see 2023 was just a blip for Correa.  

[Nashvilletwin]

6 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

He will make the Twins HOF.  But he is not the generational SS talent that is there or even close at this point.  Right now Lewis has a HOF start - not a track to HOF, but a showy beginning with great stories and stories do help.  After all isn't MVP really a story season?  Or ROY?  

I would love to see another HOF career in MN.  But the team HOF is still a great accomplishment and if we do not trade him and he plays another 3 - 5 years Polanco will be honored too. 

Well, you will get to see Mauer inducted - maybe/probably this year.

But if you can hang on another twenty or so years, I think there’s a good chance you will see another Twin make it in.  I’m betting on one of our young guys coming up soon. It’s just a feeling I have.  Correa is good too, in fact really good, but he is not going to make it.  Age, lack of numbers and trash can banging will be hard to overcome.

[Nashvilletwin]

55 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Don't give a #*&@ about the Hall of Fame, but Carlos Correa is a mighty fine baseball player. The amount I pay for a game is not determined at all by his salary, so forget his contract and try to enjoy a magnificent shortstop playing for our Minnesota Twins. 

I agree.  Correa is really good and super fun to watch. I love it when he shows off his arm to first base. 

Having said that, given the particular financial characteristics of our franchise, the opportunity cost of each player on the team is a real thing (less so for many other franchises).  Some of those costs are big and some small. Correa’s is our largest, which is not necessarily a bad thing, of course. At the moment though, the liability associated with Correa (i.e. his remaining contract) does not appear to match up with the asset he represents/that its funding (i.e. his projected output over the remaining life of that liability/contract). No biggie per se; every team has those mismatch situations.  Ideally, you have more positives than negatives and, if you have a negative, it’s not your associated with your biggest liability. 

We would all be ecstatic to see Correa make the HOF.  But even if he doesn’t, we will be rooting hard for him to have a couple of great years going forward to make that contract (i.e. his opportunity cost) pay off handsomely for the Twins.

[rv78]

If all you need to do to get in the hall is play defense then he has a shot. When you factor in his bat he isn't good enough. Has only hit .300 or better once in his entire career and that was in a season when he only had a little more than 400 AB's. Has never hit 30 HR's in a season, has never had 100 RBI's. Can't steal bases. I just don't see it. If being ROY and being elected to a couple All-Star games makes you a HOFer then there are a lot of guys that should be there that aren't. He's got to finish his career at a higher level that he's never played at to be worthy. And he shouldn't be a Twins HOFer either. He's not a Twin by choice, only by chance.

[Muppet]

I'd be happy with him getting it back together enough to be in the Hall of Really Good Regionally Almost Famous players. 

[Nashvilletwin]

2 hours ago, RpR said:

Unless he falls apart with the bat like Simmons did, he is NOT going downward and he is too young for that .

It’s clear you are big fan of Correa. As you should be, because he’s really good. At the end of the day, all TDers are probably big fans as well. And we are all cheering hard for him. Really hard. And, yes, maybe someday he will vie for the HOF.

But just keeping things a bit real:

A. To date, has Correa underperformed, outperformed, or performed more or less to expectations as a Twin?

B. Has that performance to date been better, worse, or about commensurate with the perceived value of his contract?

C. Of course, no one knows what the future holds, but at the moment, does the “market” believe the Twins are underwater, level or above water as it relates to the remaining obligations of Correa’s contract.

D. What specifically provides hope that Correa’s performance will improve over the next five years?

E. What concerns are there that his performance might diminish?

Objectively, IMO (as if anyone cares):

A. Slightly underperformed.

B. Slightly worse.

C. Underwater - not sure any team would sign him now per the remaining terms of his deal (but we probably expected some of that when we signed him anyway).

D. He’s still young, has had solid lengthy periods of outperformance, he’s a pro and very talented, he’s had better years so he’s capable, regression to the mean, he gets healthier, the young guys inspire/push him, he embraces the leadership role.

E. He’s not getting younger, his recent injury issues, overall downward trend.

There’s more to like about his upside than not. We’d all like to see five great years, and yes, maybe even legitimate HOF consideration. But he probably hasn’t shown to this point all of what the Twins/we had hoped to be getting. We are all invested in seeing that change a bit more for the positive because he’s a really important/critical part of this team and its success.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Having said that, given the particular financial characteristics of our franchise, the opportunity cost of each player on the team is a real thing (less so for many other franchises).  Some of those costs are big and some small. Correa’s is our largest, which is not necessarily a bad thing, of course. At the moment though, the liability associated with Correa (i.e. his remaining contract) does not appear to match up with the asset he represents/that its funding (i.e. his projected output over the remaining life of that liability/contract). No biggie per se; every team has those mismatch situations.  Ideally, you have more positives than negatives and, if you have a negative, it’s not your associated with your biggest liability. 

Good that you enjoy Correa. The reality of contracts for MLB teams is that rarely does any contract actually hinder their financial approach. Of course, we can look to Tampa Bay and the pathetically run Athletics as a couple of examples where contracts are dumped. The Twins have the money by the tens of millions. I don't care how the Pohlads  spend their money because there is no way I can control their habits. I'm also fine with them doing their mega big business deal approach to profit because .... again, i have no say in the matter. We should never confuse any contract, Mauer, Buxton, Correa, etc., for a drain or some minimal limitation on the Twins financial decisions simply because none exists. This has been argued endlessly but I will just close by saying, enjoy Correa for what he brings to the game and completely forget about the money because you have no say in the matter.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, rv78 said:

He's not a Twin by choice, only by chance.

Did the Mafia force Correa to play for the Twins? Don't be silly, dude, he had choices. Of course he took the larger salary. Is that a first in MLB history?

[ashbury]

There is the Bus Test: "if this guy got hit by a bus tomorrow, would he get in the HoF?"

I think the answer's a clear, if reluctant, no, as does Cody in the OP.  He checks some boxes, and his defense carries him farther than the raw offensive stats would.  But right now he's barely over 1000 base hits, and that doesn't cut it except for very special cases like some awfully, awfully good Negro Leagues players held back by spotty league schedules.  He's only got 9 seasons, short of the customary minimum of 10.

Another 600 base hits and now he's maybe in Hank Greenberg and Mickey Cochrane territory.  Assuming those 600 base hits don't take 6 seasons to accumulate.

Anyway, way premature.  Hall of Fame is a marathon, not a sprint.  But you can't just walk the whole way, either.

[DocBauer]

To me, the question is does Correa care? 

Of course he does...to a degree.

EVERY MLB player wishes they could win multiple WS trophies and be in the HOF.

Correa loves the game. He's going to be fine if not excellent in 2024 defensively and offensively now that his foot is fine.

Correa loves the game so much he knows the Twins milb system. He's the first in and last out.

Just STOP this crap. HOF doesn't matter right now. 

 

[jeffp]

I think he will bounce back this year. However, he has had a number of injury impacted seasons and I don’t think he will put together a string of ~5 WAR type seasons over the next few years that he would likely need. 

I think the Torii Hunter comparison mentioned earlier is a good one - a really good player not quite deserving of the HOF.