jeffp

I think he will bounce back this year. However, he has had a number of injury impacted seasons and I don’t think he will put together a string of ~5 WAR type seasons over the next few years that he would likely need. I think the Torii Hunter comparison mentioned earlier is a good one - a really good player not quite deserving of the HOF.

Just scanning baseball reference, I’m a bit surprised at the low hit rate on first rounders, even top 10. At best only 50% of the top 10 and 30% of the entire first round turn into solid major league players or better. (Most of the stars are drafted early in the first round however.) The Twins have had 7 top 10 picks in the last 12 years (including Buxton and Kohl Stewart) and had 4 in a row from 2012-2015. Terry Ryan only went 1 for 4, The early returns on Falvey/Levine look much better on the last three top 10s, but I know it’s still early.