Resolutions for the Twins to Adopt in 2024

[Ted Schwerzler]

The 2023 Minnesota Twins were arguably the most successful team in the last 30 years of the franchise. While they didn’t win as often or as convincingly as the Bomba Squad, they were well-constructed and made noise in October. Still, tweaks should be made if the franchise wants to see that success sustained.

Image courtesy of © Kyle Schwab-USA TODAY Sports

Rocco Baldelli will come into 2024 as the longest-tenured American League Central manager. With Terry Francona retiring, Baldelli will have seen it all within the division. Only A.J. Hinch will rival him from an experience standpoint at the helm, and Baldelli must get the most out of his team daily.

As good as the Twins were last year, they had plenty of frustrating narratives and trends, too. Adopting a few new resolutions in 2024 wouldn’t hurt, and may go a long way to reaching the next level in the postseason. Here are a few to consider:

1. Get on the Run
It took the Twins quite a while to get on the board with stolen bases, and even when the dust settled, two players accounted for most of the team's running game. Michael A. Taylor is a free agent, and while Willi Castro is back, he can’t be the only guy on the move. Minnesota has a plethora of talented potential base stealers, and utilizing their legs in a sport that now begs you to take 90 feet is a must.

Byron Buxton has racked up steals previously, and while he doesn’t need to be at second base to score, utilizing that part of his game makes sense. Royce Lewis can also fly, and finding ways to free him on the basepaths will be an important source of dynamism for what was sometimes a static offense. Edouard Julien racked up stolen bases on the farm, but left that part of his game in the minors; it’s something he could bring back. There will also be plenty of opportunities for Brooks Lee and Austin Martin to contribute on the bases when they arrive.

2. Stifle the Whiff
A greater sense of lineup balance would be great for Minnesota. The juiced ball and Bomba Squad season may have had the front office leaning into the home run a bit too much. This lineup can still punish the baseball, but there were far too many empty at-bats a season ago. Strikeouts are part of the game, and minimizing them at all costs involves making too many tradeoffs in other aspects of offense, but far too often, the Twins racked them up in a way that compromised their entire offense.

It’s great that Minnesota has a player like Julien, who can work at the top of the lineup. Finding ways to enhance the on-base production of every player in the mix will be important. Getting Buxton and Lewis to draw more walks should be a focal point. Ensuring Matt Wallner remains locked-in and looking for his pitch will help. Rather than hunting a single pitch or taking early, the Twins being more aggressive (with a balanced approach) could corral the gaudy strikeout numbers.

3. Shore Up the Defense
Minnesota's defense has been very up-and-down over the last few years. Advanced metrics are difficult to assess in a small sample, but stack them up year upon year, and they begin to tell a story. Alas, it can be a conflicting one. Although the Twins were top-10 in Sports Info Solutions's Defensive Runs Saved during 2023, they were bottom-10 by Statcast's Outs Above Average.

Plenty of the issues took place on the dirt, and that is an area where Baldelli can have his team improve. Carlos Correa remains a talented shortstop, but that was the only spot where consistency was established. Royce Lewis was in and out at third base, and Julien didn’t start trending upward with the glove at second until later in the year. What happens at first base or with Alex Kirilloff remains to be seen, but having less of a revolving door there would be great.

4. Lock in Late
The Twins had one of baseball’s best starting rotations during 2023, but found themselves squandering opportunities due to an inability to maintain offensive consistency. Baldelli had to watch starters go multiple times through a lineup, only to be given a single run or two of support. It left the team with a 19-27 record in one-run games and put significant stress on the bullpen.

Minnesota has high-leverage arms like Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, and Caleb Thielbar. They could see someone like Louie Varland continue to grow in the bullpen or another option emerge as reliable. Those guys have to be given some breathing room, and the lineup must produce more consistently. Threading needles in the late innings shouldn’t be such a constant need, and capitalizing on solid starts is necessary.

Although the American League Central shouldn’t be expected to turn into a juggernaut this season, Minnesota still must handle business if they expect to repeat. They did many things well a year ago, but making a few key tweaks could help them substantially.

What new resolutions would you like to see Baldelli’s Twins adopt in the year ahead?

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[Whitey333]

Very good article.  If the Twins do basically nothing this off season they should still be favored to win the Central.  Not that great of an accomplishment but what the heck.  I think they were a good but not great team last year.  I think they won by beating some very poor teams in our division.  There is a lot of wholes on this team and that's before losing up to 8 players in free agency.  The payroll reduction is understandable.  Signing Correa and especially Buxton to a total of 300 million was not.  Now they take up 50 million in payroll each year.  Not too much left to pay others and upgrade the roster.

[Karbo]

They absolutely must run more. this station to station is outdated with the new rules and the Twins were way behind the rest of the league last season.

Please cut down the K's! Most players (not all) should develop a 2 strike approach. Watching the team strikeout with guys in scoring position is driving me crazy! It would probably help with more scoring later also.

[stringer bell]

46 minutes ago, Karbo said:

They absolutely must run more. this station to station is outdated with the new rules and the Twins were way behind the rest of the league last season.

The team has to have the personnel to run. Adding Lewis for a full season might net 20 bags, but losing Taylor would negate that. Castro stole more than 30 for two reasons--he played a lot more than anyone forecast and he ran often and more effectively than he had when he was with the Tigers. I don't know if Willi will get the same amount of opportunities this year. Adding an Austin Martin would also help the stolen base numbers, but over all, this still isn't a running team.

 

[chpettit19]

1. I don't know that we're going to see much more steals next year. Buxton likely snags some extra, but are they really going to just cut him loose to steal a ton of bags when he couldn't play a single MLB inning of CF last year? Find that unlikely. Lewis is probably the best bet to add some steals as he has the wheels for it. I think Julien is capable of adding a few since he's a good base runner, but he's not fast (41st percentile sprint speed) so it's not like he's going to go crazy. I'm interested to see where Martin's sprint speed comes in, and what kind of base stealer he is in the majors. I'd hope they green light him early, but it'll be interesting to see his success rate as he's more of a good athlete than a super speedy guy (at least that's what my eyes tell me watching him in St Paul, but that's why I want to see the sprint speeds). Lee? Lee is not a base stealer. Yes, he has about a dozen in the minors, but he's not fast at all. The Twins need to be much better base runners, but I think pointing to Lee as a hopeful boost to the base stealing is a good indication that we shouldn't expect a ton because they're just not a very fast team. Taking extra bases on hits would be a welcome improvement as well. But you need more athleticism than this Twins team has before we see a big spike in steals.

2. They can't set more K records, that's for sure. Need to get under 25% K rate next year. But that's an interesting write-up for that section. Julien had a 31.4% K rate last year. Yes, he takes walks, but he was in the 8th percentile for K% last year. He K's a ton. And part of that is because he's so selective at the plate. The more hitters who take Julien's approach the better, but don't expect to see a dramatic reduction in K's that way. He's the model hitter for their approach. Look for pitches to drive, swing hard when you get them, don't swing at all when you don't. Leads to power, walks, and strike outs. I don't think we need Lewis hunting for anymore walks. His K rate was quite reasonable, and his walk rate was good enough.

3. Good defense is always important. Would expect the left side to be quite solid if both Lewis and Correa can stay healthy. Julien and Kirilloff are less solid for sure. Julien was trending closer to acceptable as the year went on so maybe there's a decent enough fielder in there. I think Kirilloff can be quite good at 1B when he's healthy. His shoulder appeared to be causing him to short-arm some stuff later in the year. Room to grow for both of them to be sure. Not sure you can take either of their healthy bats out of the lineup, though, so it's really up to them to figure out how to be better with the glove.

4. It's hard to really judge a lineup by time of game. Innings 7-9 were their best trio of innings by OPS (.769) with 1-3 coming in second (.761) and 4-6 coming in a distant 3rd (.729). In terms of runs scored it goes 1-3 (278), 7-9 (252), 4-6 (218). Definitely like to see those middle innings come more in line with the start and end of games. And because every conversation about their offense has to include talk about strikeouts...innings 1-3 had a 27.6 K%, 7-9 was 27%, and 4-6 was 25.4%. Maybe they need to boost those middle inning Ks to see that runs scored total go up!

[Doctor Gast]

Quote

 It left the team with a 19-27 record in one-run games

It's in direct correlation to the hitting philosophy of never varying from hitting an HR every pitch. This produces a ton of HRs (we led the AL) but when we needed a hit they'd struck out in clutch situations in close games when the opposing pitcher was on. 

We need to change this philosophy, Maybe we hit fewer HRs during the year but getting clutch hits to win the great majority of those close games (that especially includes postseason games), it'd be well worth it. I'd prefer wins over HRs any day.

[ashbury]

The resolution I would ask of the team is to teach the young lefty batters how to cope with lefty pitchers, at least as well as Max Kepler and (yes) Joey Gallo were able to do last season.  All of Kirilloff, Wallner, Larnach and Julien put up putrid numbers (OPS below .500) against left handed opponents, and I remain convinced that those numbers do not truly reflect their talent, merely a missing bit of coaching on how to deal with challenging pitches coming from that direction.  Wallner in particular I know is a very tough guy, from observation at the Arizona Fall League with Chief a few Novembers ago when he took a pitch on the jaw* and yet came back to play some more in the AFL with no decrease in performance; there is no reason he can't learn and the others should be able to too.

Left handed hitters you don't have to platoon for would raise the floor for this team by a lot.  They already murderized righty pitchers for the most part.

* No more tough than Kyle Farmer this season, just a bit luckier

[Parfigliano]

They could help themselves greatly if they quit the wishful thinking regarding Buxton being a contributor.  He wasnt offensively or defensively.  The only thing that has changed is he is a year older.

[chpettit19]

39 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

It's in direct correlation to the hitting philosophy of never varying from hitting an HR every pitch. This produces a ton of HRs (we led the AL) but when we needed a hit they'd struck out in clutch situations in close games when the opposing pitcher was on. 

We need to change this philosophy, Maybe we hit fewer HRs during the year but getting clutch hits to win the great majority of those close games (that especially includes postseason games), it'd be well worth it. I'd prefer wins over HRs any day.

FYI, a higher batting average in late and close games does give you the highest correlation to winning% in 1 run games. But it wasn't that strong of a correlation. Both it and slugging have r values that come in at the very low end of moderate correlations (BA had an r value of .42 and SLG had a .41 in 2023). K% had almost no correlation at all (-.07), though. HR rate had a .22 r value so wasn't much there either. OBP was at .19, and OPS was .35.

So you definitely want a better batting average and slugging, but striking out in late and close games has almost no correlation at all to winning 1 run games. All these numbers based on winning% in 1 run games last year, and team stats in late and close games as pulled from b-ref. For anyone reading who isn't versed in r value, it's basically a quick look at a correlation between data sets. 1 shows a positive correlation, -1 shows a negative correlation, and 0 shows no correlation. So the closer to +/- 1 you get the stronger the correlation.

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

The resolution I would ask of the team is to teach the young lefty batters how to cope with lefty pitchers, at least as well as Max Kepler and (yes) Joey Gallo were able to do last season.  All of Kirilloff, Wallner, Larnach and Julien put up putrid numbers (OPS below .500) against left handed opponents, and I remain convinced that those numbers do not truly reflect their talent, merely a missing bit of coaching on how to deal with challenging pitches coming from that direction.  Wallner in particular I know is a very tough guy, from observation at the Arizona Fall League with Chief a few Novembers ago when he took a pitch on the jaw* and yet came back to play some more in the AFL with no decrease in performance; there is no reason he can't learn and the others should be able to too.

Left handed hitters you don't have to platoon for would raise the floor for this team by a lot.  They already murderized righty pitchers for the most part.

* No more tough than Kyle Farmer this season, just a bit luckier

Excellent post Ash! It seems to me that the lefty hitters are still becoming who they will be as major leaguers. None of them have much more than a full season of plate appearances and it would figure that hitting same-handed pitchers would improve as they got more experience. They do have to produce to get extended chances, but I'm pretty confident that all can improve on their performance of 2023.

[Schmoeman5]

The #1 resolution should be to burn the vest. Land of 10,000 rakes.

[CharlieDee]

How about more bunts in 2024?  I know I'm asking for a lot, but I can hope.  

[Blyleven2011]

 

The pitching In 2023 was very good , the starting pitching kept us in alot of games   ...

I would like Rocco to use more old school technics along with the new school approach  ...

But if we don't add a quality starting pitcher we are going to need the offense to step and score more runs , a bunt to move a player up a base would be okay,  depending on who's in thexon deck circle  , hitting behind the runner would help put a runner in scoring position , hit and runs , stealing we did improve on in 2023  ,,

Adjustments on two strikes with runners on base needs to be addressed  , again  we need adjustments to the offense  and we will need more runs per game for a winning team if the FO doesn't add a quality starter  , less double plays would be nice too  ...

Seattle traded or dfa'd  alot of there strikeout hitters , not everybody likes strikeouts ...

[Blyleven2011]

6 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

It's in direct correlation to the hitting philosophy of never varying from hitting an HR every pitch. This produces a ton of HRs (we led the AL) but when we needed a hit they'd struck out in clutch situations in close games when the opposing pitcher was on. 

We need to change this philosophy, Maybe we hit fewer HRs during the year but getting clutch hits to win the great majority of those close games (that especially includes postseason games), it'd be well worth it. I'd prefer wins over HRs any day.

Singles , doubles and triples can score runs too , having the most runs after nine innings will win you alot of games  , they need some adjustments with runners in scoring position and with 2 strikes  ...

The games are alot more exciting when the player's hit the ball  , it makes a world of difference  , homeruns are nice , but how many  were solo homeruns this past season  , clutch homeruns  are game changers , solo homeruns are not  ...

Got to have a better plan at the plate , we need runs to win ...

[stringer bell]

I don’t like all of the Ks, but it is part of today’s game. Even the best players strike out more than players of 20 years ago.

The Twins need to be better with two strikes and more experience from the young players should trim the strikeouts. Also, having players with better bat-to-ball skills like Martin and Miranda to replace guys like Gallo and Taylor will decrease the K numbers a bit. 

[rv78]

The first thing Rocco can do is look in the mirror and see who throws games away. Too many times he goes with a get away lineup on the last day of a series resting his best players. It costs them wins. If you are going to expect the players to try to win every game when they play then the Manager should be managing games that way too. You speak of his experience yet he constantly makes the same mistakes, batting guys that can't drive in runs in the middle of the lineup, putting guys in the leadoff spot that are terrible at getting on base, rarely if ever tries to advance runners, or never goes for 1 run when that is all they need, instead hoping for the 3 run homer when they can't even get 2 hits in an inning. Platooning and changing the lineup almost every day doesn't automatically make you a good manager. It makes you look like you don't know who to play and where to put them in the lineup. 

[wabene]

Only about half the people like strikeouts. They are the catcher, the pitcher, the players behind the pitcher, the people in the pitcher's dugout and the fans of that pitcher. Oh and the pitcher's pals in the bullpen. 

[JD-TWINS]

21 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Very good article.  If the Twins do basically nothing this off season they should still be favored to win the Central.  Not that great of an accomplishment but what the heck.  I think they were a good but not great team last year.  I think they won by beating some very poor teams in our division.  There is a lot of wholes on this team and that's before losing up to 8 players in free agency.  The payroll reduction is understandable.  Signing Correa and especially Buxton to a total of 300 million was not.  Now they take up 50 million in payroll each year.  Not too much left to pay others and upgrade the roster.

Agree that Twins should be a favorite for Division at this point.

If CC hits .265 & has 20 HR’s & 30 doubles (all very likely) along with his defense, he’s a value because he has a presence that breeds winning with the young guys…….can’t pay much for intangibles (we all agree) but it seems to have value with this younger club.

If Buxton hits .235 with 25 HR & 25 doubles & is healthy for October, he’s a real value. He had 17 HR & 17 doubles in 80 starts while playing hurt 50% of the time (86 total games) in ‘23. Need him healthy for 100 - 110 starts (30-40 in CF) and all is good. 

Last year Twin’s payroll was 17th in baseball at $154M……..leaving $104M to spend outside of CC & Buxton. Supposedly, in ‘24, the team’s payroll will be at a ceiling of $130M, a 15.5% reduction. That’s $80M to spend on the rest of the club outside the two expensive guys ……….Mahle - Maeda - Gallo - Gray - Taylor - Solano - Pagan…….these guys add up to $45M & are all gone. If we trade Polanco, we have the team, as it sits, plus $20-$25M to spend prior to Opening Day.

Doesn’t seem to be that much of an issue IF they actually spend $130M.

[JD-TWINS]

22 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

1. I don't know that we're going to see much more steals next year. Buxton likely snags some extra, but are they really going to just cut him loose to steal a ton of bags when he couldn't play a single MLB inning of CF last year? Find that unlikely. Lewis is probably the best bet to add some steals as he has the wheels for it. I think Julien is capable of adding a few since he's a good base runner, but he's not fast (41st percentile sprint speed) so it's not like he's going to go crazy. I'm interested to see where Martin's sprint speed comes in, and what kind of base stealer he is in the majors. I'd hope they green light him early, but it'll be interesting to see his success rate as he's more of a good athlete than a super speedy guy (at least that's what my eyes tell me watching him in St Paul, but that's why I want to see the sprint speeds). Lee? Lee is not a base stealer. Yes, he has about a dozen in the minors, but he's not fast at all. The Twins need to be much better base runners, but I think pointing to Lee as a hopeful boost to the base stealing is a good indication that we shouldn't expect a ton because they're just not a very fast team. Taking extra bases on hits would be a welcome improvement as well. But you need more athleticism than this Twins team has before we see a big spike in steals.

2. They can't set more K records, that's for sure. Need to get under 25% K rate next year. But that's an interesting write-up for that section. Julien had a 31.4% K rate last year. Yes, he takes walks, but he was in the 8th percentile for K% last year. He K's a ton. And part of that is because he's so selective at the plate. The more hitters who take Julien's approach the better, but don't expect to see a dramatic reduction in K's that way. He's the model hitter for their approach. Look for pitches to drive, swing hard when you get them, don't swing at all when you don't. Leads to power, walks, and strike outs. I don't think we need Lewis hunting for anymore walks. His K rate was quite reasonable, and his walk rate was good enough.

3. Good defense is always important. Would expect the left side to be quite solid if both Lewis and Correa can stay healthy. Julien and Kirilloff are less solid for sure. Julien was trending closer to acceptable as the year went on so maybe there's a decent enough fielder in there. I think Kirilloff can be quite good at 1B when he's healthy. His shoulder appeared to be causing him to short-arm some stuff later in the year. Room to grow for both of them to be sure. Not sure you can take either of their healthy bats out of the lineup, though, so it's really up to them to figure out how to be better with the glove.

4. It's hard to really judge a lineup by time of game. Innings 7-9 were their best trio of innings by OPS (.769) with 1-3 coming in second (.761) and 4-6 coming in a distant 3rd (.729). In terms of runs scored it goes 1-3 (278), 7-9 (252), 4-6 (218). Definitely like to see those middle innings come more in line with the start and end of games. And because every conversation about their offense has to include talk about strikeouts...innings 1-3 had a 27.6 K%, 7-9 was 27%, and 4-6 was 25.4%. Maybe they need to boost those middle inning Ks to see that runs scored total go up!

Agree on the left side & right side defense. Hope CF works out. I think it is covered with existing, rostered options.

K% will go down w/o Gallo & an improvement by Buxton ……..gotta say it bothers me to see Julien strike out looking as much as he does - no stats, but seems like about 1 of 4 are looking? Walking is a great tool but with 2 strikes one needs to protect the plate on some level - he comes off like he thinks he’s earned Ted Williams status.

Steals are a nice add but we can’t manufacture speed out of a mostly set line-up. Seems it will fall to Lewis - Castro …..maybe Wallner & Kepler sprinkling some in here & there………Buxton’s ability to contribute will depend, as usual, upon his health.

[FlyingFinn]

20 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Julien strike out looking as much as he does - no stats, but seems like about 1 of 4 are looking? Walking is a great tool but with 2 strikes one needs to protect the plate on some level - he comes off like he thinks he’s earned Ted Williams status.

He comes from the robo umps in the minors and actually knows the strike zone better than the umps. Look at the strike calls he disagrees with and 90% of the time they are outside the strike zone box (of course, this is assuming that strike zone box is correct). I also strongly disagree with Ted Williams type veterans getting smaller strike zones than rookies. Just call a strike a strike.

[JD-TWINS]

Just now, FlyingFinn said:

He comes from the robo umps in the minors and actually knows the strike zone better than the umps. Look at the strike calls he disagrees with and 90% of the time they are outside the strike zone box (of course, this is assuming that strike zone box is correct). I also strongly disagree with Ted Williams type veterans getting smaller strike zones than rookies. Just call a strike a strike.

One can disagree with certain players getting a slight advantage due to reputation/years of experience/etc. - it’s real and has been for 100 years (i.e. Maddux - Glavine - many hitters). Not right, but real. Bottom line is he was a rookie and after striking out looking a half dozen times, one needs to adjust - I realize he may have had an argument or was correct a few times. Walking back to the dugout shaking your head is not the answer. Gotta protect the plate with two strikes - one of oldest adages in Baseball.

[saviking]

15 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I don’t like all of the Ks, but it is part of today’s game. Even the best players strike out more than players of 20 years ago.

The Twins need to be better with two strikes and more experience from the young players should trim the strikeouts. Also, having players with better bat-to-ball skills like Martin and Miranda to replace guys like Gallo and Taylor will decrease the K numbers a bit. 

I agree we need to add some old school with our high-tech ways. But then, I'm an old fart. I don't mind strikeouts as long as the hitter is productive. There were 29 times last year I would have rather had Correa strike out instead of hit into a double play. 

[1985Fan]

Successful stolen bases are not entirely dependent on speed. Yes it helps, but reading the pitcher to get a good jump is probably as important as speed. With today’s rules, advantage is tilted to the runner. When pitcher uses up their two throws, the runner can expand their lead and are practically guaranteed 2nd base. I’m sure the stats are out there on success rate for that situation. The old adage is the base is not stolen on the catcher, it’s the pitcher not holding the runner. 
Correa, if healthy, should be able to steal 20 bases easily. If he can get on base to get chances to steal. One and four are related. Less strikeouts should put more runners on base and add to stolen base opportunities. 
Less strikeouts also opens up other tools for Baldelli, if he chooses to use other tools. Hit and run is a great way to advance runners. Doesn’t work unless you can put the ball in play. Hitting behind runners on first base is another great way to set up scoring opportunities. Those are the types of tools that can be valuable in one run or low scoring games and can add a few wins to the record. 
 I’d like to watch the Twins steal bases, hit behind runners, and hit and run. Station to station baseball is very boring. I’m not saying a total shift in game management or style, but using more tools to manufacture runs would be welcome! 

[sluap2]

These are some brilliant ideas!

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 minute ago, Paul Schleper said:

These are some brilliant ideas!

Welcome to TD

[DocBauer]

Look, you can call me an apologist or a realist, but here we go:

1] RUNNING:

Casto was great. Buxton tried the best he could on 50% wheels and got a couple. I think Taylor would have stolen more if it wasn't for a bad back. Lewis has the potential to steal more, and he might, but they weren't going to ask for that this soon. After doing NOTHING the first month, Rocco began to run more. But the 2023 Twins weren't built to run. If you haven't been paying attention to recent drafts and the milb system, you might not see that they are looking for more speed. Julien isn't exactly overly fast, but he's stolen some bases and might do better in 2024. MARTIN is a guy who could add to SB when he's ready. The Twins have a couple guys in the non-rostered Helman and Keirsey who can run, and might make an appearance at any time. And there are other prospects coming up with speed. But baserunning is also about taking the extra base, not only SB. And if you weren't paying attention, the 2023 Twins deployed a lot more bunts and "suicide bunts" than I have seen in years. Rocco gets it, wants it, but you need the players who can do it.

2 K's:

Sorry, but as much as Taylor was a CF savior for 2023, with his defense and pop and limited SB, he was a K machine. I STILL wouldn't mind him back for his defense and potential to SB more, but I'm just not certain he fits for next season. I understand Rocco and the Twins wanting an elite defensive CF option for 2024, but maybe they will "settle" for a slight downgrade defensively who can provide similar offense. And let's get real and just admit the Gallo experiment was a failure. So Gallo is gone. Taylor's K might be gone. Improvement from the players on hand might improve as well. Julien, and I'd argue Lewis and Wallner as well, have shown good eyes that maybe have to sharper some. But this is not a record setting K team with Gallo and Taylor gone and improment from the kids. 

3] DEFENSE :

Julien showed real improvement, but might still end up as a 1B/2B/DH rotation player if Lee is kept. And I'm fine with that. He can play defense fine if you've watched him. He's still growing. He'll never be great,  but he's fine, average, and maybe better. If you've actually watched him, he's gone from "I'm not sure" to quality reaction.  But Lewis or Lee will be the primary options at 2B/3B if Lee is kept.

Sorry, 1B doesnt scare me. Kirilloff's shoulder injury was minor. His wrist seems to be good. Unless something else suddenly happens, I think he's going to FINALLY reach his talent base. 

Kepler isn't going anywhere unless the deal makes sense. Wallner had shown vast improvement defensively last year, and will move to RF eventually. 

How good is Correa offensively with his great defense if he's healthy ? 

4] BULLPEN: 

The base is there. But i will say over and over again that the pen looks good if they can just add one arm to deepen the pen. Maybe it's another find. Maybe it's one of our current arms. But I think this pen is very close to being very good if they can sign someone or resurrect someone, or see someone like Alcala or Balazovic, etc, suddenly take charge. Or maybe a Staumont does a Stewart kind of improvement. There ARE possibilities. 

5] LOCK IN LATE;

This is a quality team with depth. And the FO always sits and waits for opportunity.  (I like and understand and sometimes hate that approach, but I get it) They WILL add a rotation arm. And we might love that addition while hatIing what we gave up. But in the long run, we just might love what we got more than we gave up. HOPEFULLY. 

 

[JD-TWINS]

10 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Look, you can call me an apologist or a realist, but here we go:

1] RUNNING:

Casto was great. Buxton tried the best he could on 50% wheels and got a couple. I think Taylor would have stolen more if it wasn't for a bad back. Lewis has the potential to steal more, and he might, but they weren't going to ask for that this soon. After doing NOTHING the first month, Rocco began to run more. But the 2023 Twins weren't built to run. If you haven't been paying attention to recent drafts and the milb system, you might not see that they are looking for more speed. Julien isn't exactly overly fast, but he's stolen some bases and might do better in 2024. MARTIN is a guy who could add to SB when he's ready. The Twins have a couple guys in the non-rostered Helman and Keirsey who can run, and might make an appearance at any time. And there are other prospects coming up with speed. But baserunning is also about taking the extra base, not only SB. And if you weren't paying attention, the 2023 Twins deployed a lot more bunts and "suicide bunts" than I have seen in years. Rocco gets it, wants it, but you need the players who can do it.

2 K's:

Sorry, but as much as Taylor was a CF savior for 2023, with his defense and pop and limited SB, he was a K machine. I STILL wouldn't mind him back for his defense and potential to SB more, but I'm just not certain he fits for next season. I understand Rocco and the Twins wanting an elite defensive CF option for 2024, but maybe they will "settle" for a slight downgrade defensively who can provide similar offense. And let's get real and just admit the Gallo experiment was a failure. So Gallo is gone. Taylor's K might be gone. Improvement from the players on hand might improve as well. Julien, and I'd argue Lewis and Wallner as well, have shown good eyes that maybe have to sharper some. But this is not a record setting K team with Gallo and Taylor gone and improment from the kids. 

3] DEFENSE :

Julien showed real improvement, but might still end up as a 1B/2B/DH rotation player if Lee is kept. And I'm fine with that. He can play defense fine if you've watched him. He's still growing. He'll never be great,  but he's fine, average, and maybe better. If you've actually watched him, he's gone from "I'm not sure" to quality reaction.  But Lewis or Lee will be the primary options at 2B/3B if Lee is kept.

Sorry, 1B doesnt scare me. Kirilloff's shoulder injury was minor. His wrist seems to be good. Unless something else suddenly happens, I think he's going to FINALLY reach his talent base. 

Kepler isn't going anywhere unless the deal makes sense. Wallner had shown vast improvement defensively last year, and will move to RF eventually. 

How good is Correa offensively with his great defense if he's healthy ? 

4] BULLPEN: 

The base is there. But i will say over and over again that the pen looks good if they can just add one arm to deepen the pen. Maybe it's another find. Maybe it's one of our current arms. But I think this pen is very close to being very good if they can sign someone or resurrect someone, or see someone like Alcala or Balazovic, etc, suddenly take charge. Or maybe a Staumont does a Stewart kind of improvement. There ARE possibilities. 

5] LOCK IN LATE;

This is a quality team with depth. And the FO always sits and waits for opportunity.  (I like and understand and sometimes hate that approach, but I get it) They WILL add a rotation arm. And we might love that addition while hatIing what we gave up. But in the long run, we just might love what we got more than we gave up. HOPEFULLY. 

 

Forgot about displacing Taylor’s K’s - that’s a welcome change even though we step back defensively a bit. I like Castro’s odds of being pretty good in CF given steady opportunity …….fast, good arm, very athletic overall & a real solution.

Anyway, my thought was to kill two birds with a few stones in a trade. Hopefully, SOONER THAN LATER. Help the staff/Pen both for under $20M. Trade the stones for Devin Williams of the Brewers. They are going to step back and move Burnes at some point - Woodruff is gone. They are rebuilding with youth no matter how they portray the short-term to their fans. They always want to get cheap controllable pieces. We send them 3-4 guys for 2 years of Williams starting at $6.25M in ‘24. Any package we may give up for one year of Burnes is worth 2 years of Williams………then sign Clevinger to fix our rotation depth. $13.5M/yr. for two years with a player option for 2nd year, so if he is tremendous and wants to test the market he can. 131 innings & 3.77 ERA in ‘23.

Rotation fixed - Pen is elite ………$ to afford both by trading Polanco.