Still No Clarity On Potential Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco Trades

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I don’t think the double play pivot is anywhere near as dangerous as it used to be when guys were taking out second baseman frequently with takeout slides.

According to guys that are plugged into the Twins, Lewis is better equipped to play second and Lee’s more of a 3B. 

Ditto!

[JD-TWINS]

9 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I don't think Farmer's 6M gets the team the kind of pitching they need. It's got to be a trade unless they go nuts and chase Yamamoto or Montgomery. No other free agents fit their needs.

A big Montgomery proponent here!!

As of today, I think Mike Clevinger may be a good value? He came off arm surgery re-hab in late ‘22 with San Diego & looked OK. In ‘23 he played on a poor White Sox club & went 9-9 in 131 innings with a 3.77 ERA. He’s got good stuff and is probably a low teens guy ($13M/year) that could supplement what we lost in rotation along with Paddack & Varland.

[stringer bell]

13 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Farmer would get snapped up on waivers.

 

1 hour ago, Fat Calvin said:

Don't forget that he got hit in the face with a fastball early last season.  It did quite a bit of damage both physically and mentally.  He was eventually able to shake it off, but it did bring his numbers down.  The guy's a tough competitor and he brings that elusive "grit" to the team.  Of course, it's hard, if not impossible, to measure grit; there are no metrics for it.  But if we lose Farmer, I think we'd lose a lot more than statistics can suggest.

The discussion was about non-tendering, which would make Farmer a free agent. 

While Farmer did indeed take one in the face and it might have affected him, he hit up to his career standards, as a matter of fact, he had his best OPS+ of his career. I expect that Father Time is an adversary for going into his age 33-34 season. 

The Twins used Farmer well and maximized his contribution IMHO. He's a good player, but his ability to play shortstop is less important with Lewis on the roster and Lee available in St. Paul. I also believe that Castro showed enough to be considered a possible fill-in at short. 

[D.C Twins]

12 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Let's look at last off-season. 

On November 18th... The Twins traded Urshela to the Angels and acquired Farmer from the Reds. 

December 16th... The Twins signed Free Agent Christian Vazquez.

December 20th... The Twins signed Joey Gallo. 

January 11th... The Twins signed Carlos Correa. 

January 24th... The Twins acquired Michael A. Taylor. 

February 23rd... The Twins signed free agent... Donovan Solano. 

It might be quiet but it's not like other off-seasons are loud by this time. 

And we haven't signed Gallo (yet) this offseason, so perhaps silence is golden...

[DocBauer]

So, kind of seems everyone is reaching beyond the OP and being impatient for January and just wanting something to talk about, LOL. 

Just learned from the most Gleeman and the Geek Patreon that very POSSIBLY the TV situation is settled as far as the Twins still having an actual video broadcast for 2024, supposedly with no blackouts, but the actual financial numbers are still up for debate through court and negotiations. That just means the Twins will be televised, but who knows, right now, how the $ numbers affect 2024.

But let's stop there for a moment.

The Twins aren't desperate to move either Polanco

or Kepler. Farmer and Vazquez are lower down the line.

Our FO seldom does much of anything until January. And while there have been a couple of major moves, a few minor ones, a couple that might still happen, MLB is about to shut down for a couple of weeks until January. This is normal.

But to just address a couple items presented:

1] Polanco is a very good ballplayer. As fans, we sometimes overvalue prospects to a degree, but we also under value current players because we ONLY see, at times, what they DON'T do. A healthy Polanco is one of the best 2B in MLB. He's solid defensively, can be moved around, and is willing to do so, and is a quality hitter with good OB and contact and power numbers. Frankly, he's a difference maker ONLY AVAILABLE because the Twins have depth there. Of course there's "tons of interest" there. The biggest question is can the Twins "make hay" with him individually, or with more added, to bring something back?

2] We've seen the best and the worst of Kepler. I would tell you that right now, based on his 3/4 2023 season, I think his value is MUCH higher than 2019. I think the Twins, and everyone else, has seen what I've/We've seen in 2023 and the ONLY negative is him being on a 1yr deal. That either means the Twins keep him, MAYBE look at a re-sign, or a trading team looking at a great defensive player, a strong offensive player for their own re-sign.

3] Farmer is a really good, solid player. Despite everything he does, he's still questionable worthy of anything other than a solid milb prospect, or, a ML CF back up, or a BP piece. But he is what he is. He's a fine temporary SS, or a great utility player and teammate for a year or two. I believe the Twins kept him to hope his $ made sense for one more year as a solid backup and team leader, unless it makes sense to move him sometime after the 1st of the year. Especially if someone suddenly has a hole to be filled. 

4] I love trade prospects about Jeffers...not mentioned in the OP....as he's just not going anywhere. How can anyone blast the Twins for not developing catchers and then want to trade away the best one they HAVE DEVELOPED for the first time in over a decade?

The Twins don't WANT to trade Polanco. It's just smart to do so. They don't WANT to trade Kepler, they just might have to. And they WON'T TRADE both Kepler and Wallner. They absolutely WON'T trade BOTH Lee and Julien. But it's possible they might have to trade one. 

But we're also 20-30 days before we see anything happen. So there is no "clarity" to be seen at this time. But I'm betting there are a lot of teams chomping at the bit to add Polanco to their team when the calendar turns over.

[Otwins]

I hope they don't trade any of their players.  Their best player last year was named Depth. I would keep him for this year.

They have enough money to sign a major league starter.  Clevinger was mentioned a couple times in this thread.  He would be fine. Add a couple cheaper relievers. Worry about playoff starters at the trade deadline. 

[DJL44]

10 hours ago, stringer bell said:

The discussion was about non-tendering, which would make Farmer a free agent. 

Yes, but I was stating that the Twins could be rid of his contract immediately if they put him on waivers. Therefore, it can't be a mistake to tender a contract.

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Yes, but I was stating that the Twins could be rid of his contract immediately if they put him on waivers. Therefore, it can't be a mistake to tender a contract.

When players are waived, if no one claims them, isn't the team that lets the player go liable for all but the major league minimum of their salary? I believe this is the case or tender/non-tender wouldn't be such a big deal.

[DJL44]

17 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

When players are waived, if no one claims them, isn't the team that lets the player go liable for all but the major league minimum of their salary? I believe this is the case or tender/non-tender wouldn't be such a big deal.

If a player is claimed the claiming team takes the whole contract. If they pass through waivers then the team waiving is responsible for all but the minimum. Farmer would not get past all 30 teams without being claimed.

[stringer bell]

4 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

If a player is claimed the claiming team takes the whole contract. If they pass through waivers then the team waiving is responsible for all but the minimum. Farmer would not get past all 30 teams without being claimed.

Not so sure on that. Why pay over $6M when you can grab him a week later for $800K? My assumption is that Farmer is a backup on a good team and too expensive and too old for non-contenders. Is there a team he gets 500 plate appearances for? I don't think so. If a team wants to use him like the Twins did last year (quite possible), then $6M is a hefty salary. 

[DJL44]

11 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Not so sure on that. Why pay over $6M when you can grab him a week later for $800K?

Because you are guaranteed to get him if you pay him $6M but he can sign anywhere if he makes it through waivers.

[jorgenswest]

Farmer’s value is the short side of a platoon. Last year his overall numbers were better than 2022 but in 2022 he was a regular facing a greater ratio of right handed pitching. The change in use gave the illusion that he had a better year.

I question whether many teams see him as a regular shortstop. They must not have last seen him as a regular SS last year given his low cost to the Twins. His numbers against right handed pitching in 2023 didn’t do anything to change that view. If their view of his value hasn’t changed and his salary has gone up I am not sure there are many buyers. There are low cost options in free agency that are better bats against right handed pitching or better gloves at shortstop.

The Twins have use for a short side platoon right handed bat to pair with Julien. Farmer also would be a useful late inning defensive replacement for Julien. If they trade Polanco there probably isn’t a better fit for Farmer than the Twins pairing him with Julien. 

[darin617]

There are still too many free agents available for a trade to happen. This includes pitching. With so many top pitchers still available teams like Seattle won't make a move until the amount of free agents decrease. Supply and demand at its finest. Unless a team gets blown away they won't trade a guy right now.

[Road trip]

18 hours ago, twinsfansd said:

I don't think the Twins will ever move Lewis to 2B. Why would you put a guy that has had 2 knee surgeries on 2B and need to make a pivot. I think that would be asking for trouble.

Agree.  I also look at Lewis and see a young guy with a big frame.  He's still listed at 200lbs, but that is an old number.  It wouldn't shock me if he fills out with just a bit more muscle and ends up playing at the 215-220lbs range, which is really large for a 2nd baseman.  I'd keep him at 3rd.

[Mike Sixel]

Outside Atlanta trading and cutting guys.....not much has happened on the trade front. I just don't get why anyone expected anything different than this, and why anyone cares yet. Has anyone the Twins could realistically get been traded or signed, that you'd want?

[Trov]

There are too many outfielders and middle infield FA left to sign before we know what teams will be looking for either from us.  Until that starts to shake out we will not know the true market.  The Twins could look to make a trade early, but that could result in a smaller return.  The Twins have normally tried to wait out the market and not overpay for either FA or get poor returns on deals. I have no issue waiting, there is still months until spring training. 

[DocBauer]

On 12/18/2023 at 5:02 PM, twinsfansd said:

I don't think the Twins will ever move Lewis to 2B. Why would you put a guy that has had 2 knee surgeries on 2B and need to make a pivot. I think that would be asking for trouble.

I get your point. Even though the rules have changed, for the better, in regard to outs and interference and the such, I'd rather have Lewis at 2B and Lee at 3B.

Lee is smart and smooth and has a good arm. He's a good athlete. I think he has the potential to be a solid, OK ML SS. And thats great with his bat! But I just think Lewis is an even better, faster, quicker athlete where his 2B skills would make him an even better defensive player than Lee at 2B. 

But honestly, do we care? LOL. We're talking about a pair of dynamic talents who could plug in anywhere.

[cmoss84]

Here's a weird one that might help 2 teams in the same division:

Polanco and Kepler for Dylan Cease. Thoughts?

[cmoss84]

RpR you love throwing the hands down. How about some words...you know...feedback? You can disagree with me 100%, but it would be nice to read thoughts. 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, cmoss84 said:

Here's a weird one that might help 2 teams in the same division:

Polanco and Kepler for Dylan Cease. Thoughts?

If they can get 2 years of Cease for Polanco and Kepler I'd be very happy with that. I'd guess Chicago is looking for younger players with more control, though.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, cmoss84 said:

RpR you love throwing the hands down. How about some words...you know...feedback? You can disagree with me 100%, but it would be nice to read thoughts. 

You got my thought , bad idea, he is not worth a hole in the defense and offense.

[randy_moist]

9 hours ago, cmoss84 said:

Here's a weird one that might help 2 teams in the same division:

Polanco and Kepler for Dylan Cease. Thoughts?

Chicago seems poised for a big rebuild, not trying to add short term ML contracts, Burns will take more than just that, but I wonder if Milwaukee is more amenable to this sort of structure. They are a competitive team with a dire need to address the offense (93 team OPS+). Include Larnach, who could still entice the Brewers imo, as he's a high minors bat-first prospect, with some upside remaining. Finally, a prospect such as as Schobel or Keaschall (or Yasser Mercedes since BTV loves him for some reason..) rounds it out.

Milwaukee gets 2 immediate starters added to their line-up, Larnach can compete in spring training for another spot or be the first call up, and the 4th prospect isn't that far away from the Majors either. It requires Milwaukee to be interested in present value over future value, otherwise the Twins aren't likely going to be shopping for a 1 year rental that costs a top prospect. Twins get an ace looking to hit FA in top form, and very likely a comp pick when he does that. They give up a lot of ML calibre talent, but their depth is a strength. The OF will be thinned, but that's mostly a 2024 issue that Castro papers over.

[Guest]

Exhibit A of people not having enough to do is a TD news bulletin that nothing is going on.... 

[cmoss84]

19 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

If they can get 2 years of Cease for Polanco and Kepler I'd be very happy with that. I'd guess Chicago is looking for younger players with more control, though.

You're probably right. My thought process was there are 2 different versions of Cease, and if the sox do not want to roll the dice on the bad version, maybe they would take some major league talent to help bridge an IF and OF position...

[chpettit19]

17 minutes ago, cmoss84 said:

You're probably right. My thought process was there are 2 different versions of Cease, and if the sox do not want to roll the dice on the bad version, maybe they would take some major league talent to help bridge an IF and OF position...

It's by no means the worst trade proposal to ever grace the forums on Twins Daily. I think in a vacuum it's a reasonable trade in terms of value on each side. I just don't think Chicago is at a point where they'd be interested in vets over what I'd guess are pretty nice prospect packages they could get in return. Will be interesting to see where he ends up, though.

[Thebigalguy]

Package Max and Jorge together to get a solid rotation pitcher. The right team will pull the plug on such a two-for-one in no time flat. I could name several such teams but will leave it to my friends onsite to do the math.

[Greglw3]

On 12/17/2023 at 10:17 PM, Paul D said:

I had thought that the Twins would match up with the Red Sox because the Sox have no useful second baseman on their roster.  There have been Merrifield rumors, but I have yet to see anything on Polanco.  I did make a comment on the Red Sox page of The Athletic and Jen McCaffrey commented that the Sox are looking for a good defender.  To my eyes it looks like Polanco fits the bill, but she stated that his analytics have him as below average.  I'm guessing that this may be contributing to the lack of activity at this point.

Another baseball person deceived by the almost always wrong defensive analytics. It amazes me that they wouldn't refer to a scouting report or if they really know baseball, watch lots of film on them. Relying on these unproven and counter-intuitive, new and unproven def analytics is both lazy and foolish. Polanco is a fine 2nd baseman, not so much at 3rd.

[harmony55]

Seattle blogs and podcasts frequently mention Max Kepler as a trade target for the Mariners.

Predictably the Seattle commentators think the trade cost should be low for one year of Kepler at $10 million. Presumably Minnesota fans have a contrasting view.

What would it take for the Twins to part with Kepler in a trade with the Mariners?

A fit might be difficult to find because Seattle is unlikely to trade from the current starting rotation of Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo. Emerson Hancock or bullpen pieces could be available.

Thoughts?

 

 

[LA Vikes Fan]

Kepler is worth more to the Twins than Polanco since we have replacements for 2B in Julien and Lee but not really for RF unless we move Wallner to RF and go with someone from the group of Larnach, Castro, Gordon, Keirsey, Prato, Kirilloff (with Julien playing 1B). Two trade thoughts - (1) Kepler is worth Emerson Hancock PLUS an established late inning reliever like Topa or Speier from Seattle with the Twins throwing in a lower level prospect to even things out. or (2) alternatively, Kepler PLUS Festa AND Tanner Schobel should get you Miller or Woo. 

I would do either trade with a preference for #2.  

 

[nicksaviking]

On 12/28/2023 at 11:03 PM, harmony55 said:

Seattle blogs and podcasts frequently mention Max Kepler as a trade target for the Mariners.

Predictably the Seattle commentators think the trade cost should be low for one year of Kepler at $10 million. Presumably Minnesota fans have a contrasting view.

What would it take for the Twins to part with Kepler in a trade with the Mariners?

A fit might be difficult to find because Seattle is unlikely to trade from the current starting rotation of Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo. Emerson Hancock or bullpen pieces could be available.

Thoughts?

 

 

I wouldn't look to trade Kepler by himself; I want to maximize the return. If they want Kepler and the Twins offered good prospects in addition, they might be able to get one of the starters.