Twins Expect to Add Starting Pitcher This Offseason

[Brock Beauchamp]

It shouldn't surprise anyone but both Nightengale Jr and Dan Hayes have mentioned that the Twins expect to add a starting pitcher to their rotation this offseason.

Given the self-imposed payroll constraints the Twins face this offseason and their relative pitching depth in the upper minors, a one-year deal remains the most likely result should they opt for the free agent market. Wade Miley, 37 years old, remains a well above-average lefty when he's healthy. It's hard to expect more than 120 innings out of him in any given season but that might actually make him appealing to the Twins, who have Louie Varland waiting to step into the rotation at any time.

Other options include reclamation projects like Frankie Montas or, if he's available on a one-year deal, Lucas Giolito.

The Twins are equally likely to opt for a longer-term trade candidate and at that point, there are a dozen viable names who may be on the market.

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[tony&rodney]

Giolito would provide innings and may see the Twins as a team to boost his stock on a one year deal. the one year could cost though (up to $20M).  However, Giolito may also get someone to throw a 4/$50M or better deal his way. Giolito has money already and should be looking to put himself at the top of a post 2024 pile of SP. Maybe the Twins get him for $13M.

I always liked both Miley and Montas, but they are not likely to throw as many innings. Their contracts will decide if the Twins can gamble on one of them. I think Varland is a better bet straight up though.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Pretty sure its been mentioned several times on here.  Its also been mentioned that they are looking at the trade market for SP so I don't think this sets it in stone for a FA SP but it does leave an option if they find someone of reasonable value.  In general though the FA bargain have not worked out well for the Twins.   Would rather just go with Varland.  Frankie Montas is interesting but would most likely get out of our price range.   The milb deal for a back up SP I have mentioned as well, but prior to the winter meetings this is the type of news we get.  

[Reptevia]

A Shoemaker reunion!!!!

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

My guess is that they add 2 starting pitchers but that they will not be of the quality of the ones we lost (Gray and Maeda).  We need a few of the in-house SP kids to step up and provide the quality innings we lost last week.

I do think Paddack is going to, at minimum, cover the production that Maeda had in 2023 (100ish innings, low 4 era) and there is a chance he improves on that level.

I'm curious who the primary addition will be. This offseason is set to be super interesting for a ton of reasons.

[nicksaviking]

If the Twins go for Miley or Montas it will show they learned nothing from the Archer/Bundy/Happ/Shoemaker days. 

 

[wabene]

If every year the Twins have a young, MLB caliber starter with options they can stash at AAA to start the season, they will have an advantage over most teams. Just like they did last year. You need depth. This could go a long way towards having another top of the league rotation. Last year it was Ober's cross to bear. This year it is Varland's.

The goal should be to have Louie waiting and stretched out in St Paul refining his arsenal.

[Cory Engelhardt]

16 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

If the Twins go for Miley or Montas it will show they learned nothing from the Archer/Bundy/Happ/Shoemaker days. 

 

I don't put Montas in the same book as Shoemaker, as he has had actual success before. But yeah, I'd prefer someone who was healthy at least at the end of 2023 compared to Montas

[DJL44]

Ideally they add someone to the top of the rotation that bumps Varland to the #6 spot in AAA and a young pitcher for the minor leagues they can use as the #7/8 option.

Worst case they add a veteran lefty who can move to the bullpen if they get beat out of a spot in the rotation.

 

[jmlease1]

47 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

If the Twins go for Miley or Montas it will show they learned nothing from the Archer/Bundy/Happ/Shoemaker days. 

 

How things have changed from when in almost every thread someone would post "Where Frankie?"

[Doctor Gast]

The feeling I got was when they mentioned looking to clear Kepler, Polanco, Farmer & Vazquez salary due to trade, to me it sounds that the salary they cut from trading these guys they will go out & look for a FAs. If this is their focus then this is a recipe for disaster. Trying to find a SP to replace Gray in FA won't work it never has. Trading anyone of these players especially Vazquez will create a big hole if they are looking to trade all of them the hole will be insurmountable. If they want to destroy the Twins & their fanbase this would be good way to do it. 

Just when you see them making good off season trades with Gray & Lopez you think they finally got things right. I hope I don't see them go back to their old pitiful ways.

[Jocko87]

Can we have a moratorium on the phrase “self-imposed payroll constraints“? That’s not at all what is happening. 

[DocBauer]

The more I've reflected on it, checked out the numbers, Miley could be a really solid 1yr option. I'm still of the belief Giolito is a bounce back candidate with huge potential. Could we really get him for 1yr? Maybe a 2yr deal with some incentives the first season, and a bump in pay for season #2? (I know some guys get bumps next season, but a 2019-2021 Giolito would be worth the wallet pain). 

I still think they probably go the trade route first, looking for another Gray/Lopez type deal. Then they grab a really cheap rehab/bounce back veteran, maybe even on a milb deal.

SEASON WISE, I'm not so sure Paddack and player X, along with some progression from Ryan and Ober and Varland, doesn't come close to matching last year's rotation numbers. We might not feel as good about that second "playoff caliber" starter, but as a unit for the regular season, we might match or come close to 2023.

[nicksaviking]

4 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I don't put Montas in the same book as Shoemaker, as he has had actual success before. But yeah, I'd prefer someone who was healthy at least at the end of 2023 compared to Montas

 

4 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

How things have changed from when in almost every thread someone would post "Where Frankie?"

Montas was only ever good when he pitched in the Oakland Colosseum. The Yankees were absolute fools for not bothering to check even the most easily accessible road stats on this guy.

[Cory Engelhardt]

9 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

 

Montas was only ever good when he pitched in the Oakland Colosseum. The Yankees were absolute fools for not bothering to check even the most easily accessible road stats on this guy.

Still better than Shoemaker

[nicksaviking]

4 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Still better than Shoemaker

That bar is still significantly lower than I want this team to jump over.

Unless they only care about winning a terrible division, they need to trade for a Sonny Gray replacement. I get that you may not get Cy Young runner up results, but they need two pitchers they can feel confident in to start games 1 and 2 of the post season series. That's not Ryan, Ober, Paddock, Varland, Montas, Wiley, Shoemaker, Bundy, Maeda or any of these other nice mid-to-back end pieces.

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

Can we have a moratorium on the phrase “self-imposed payroll constraints“? That’s not at all what is happening. 

But that absolutely is what's happening. You can understand and agree with their decision, that's fine. I happen to disagree. A business wholly owned by the Pohlads (and therefore not under pressure from minority stakeholders) can decide whether to be profitable and to what extent, particularly over the short-term of a season or two. Businesses do it all the time. 

I don't recall the team giving money back to the fans when they were wildly profitable running barebones payrolls from 2013-2014. Why is it okay for them to reap the rewards during boon times but play the role of the pauper when things temporarily go sideways?

[Cory Engelhardt]

38 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

That bar is still significantly lower than I want this team to jump over.

Unless they only care about winning a terrible division, they need to trade for a Sonny Gray replacement. I get that you may not get Cy Young runner up results, but they need two pitchers they can feel confident in to start games 1 and 2 of the post season series. That's not Ryan, Ober, Paddock, Varland, Montas, Wiley, Shoemaker, Bundy, Maeda or any of these other nice mid-to-back end pieces.

I do believe Ryan and Ober are close to playoff level starters. Some improvement from both of them (maybe even just getting pre-injury Ryan) will help the overall staff’s numbers right? But for sure either this offseason, or at the trade deadline, be ready to add a high level guy

[TopGunn#22]

I agree Brock.  It's not as if the Twins will go the entire 2024 season with zero TV or broadcasting revenue.  They'll have some, maybe a lot.  If this was a team that just finished 3rd in the division that had 3 promising rookies but wasn't close to contending, I'd understand this "SELF IMPOSED PAYROLL CONSTRAINT."  

But we're talking about a division champion who finally got the winless playoff monkey off their back.  They really have a 5-year window where they could rule the division.  But the other teams of the A.L. Central aren't just going to give the division to the Twins.  The ballclub needs to improve each year.  

I see a trade for a SP first.  They will probably use a Polanco or Kepler to acquire this pitcher and cut some payroll in the process.  Who in free agency they have their sights on is anybody's guess.  Luis Severino just signed with the Mets for one-year $13 million.  Severino has a better track record than Montas but he also pitched for better teams.  He's still a bit fragile which makes me lean more toward Giolito and gamble on the bounce back or take a chance on Trevor Bauer, who is healthy, can eat innings and if he has his velo and stuff back, like it appeared he did in Japan could be a one or two year option.  

Bauer is not "young" and I would prefer someone younger.  I'm not afraid of the clubhouse with a vet like Correa around.  But he could be an cost effective and solid rotation piece.  

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

But that absolutely is what's happening. You can understand and agree with their decision, that's fine. I happen to disagree. A business wholly owned by the Pohlads (and therefore not under pressure from minority stakeholders) can decide whether to be profitable and to what extent, particularly over the short-term of a season or two. Businesses do it all the time. 

I don't recall the team giving money back to the fans when they were wildly profitable running barebones payrolls from 2013-2014. Why is it okay for them to reap the rewards during boon times but play the role of the pauper when things temporarily go sideways?

I’ll grant you self imposed if you grant me that they impose it so as not to go out of business.  Self imposed as in mildly responsible business practices.

When businesses decide to do what you are describing, running in the red for a longer term goal, they do with an expectation that the payoff will make them good on their investments.  No other reason. Never mind that the season or two of loss have already happened, the expectations of return are known.

They know they are losing revenue from the TV deal, set that aside.  How many years in a row would you suggest they lose all the money they made in the “wildly profitable” years each year?  With a decent TV deal, by the way, all available information points to 5-8% margins it those glory years.  Public utility numbers.

It’s an unfortunate set of circumstances, to be sure, but absent a dying billionaire raining millions they are bound by basic business rationality.  Kinda sad but cool we got to see how well the other way worked in San Diego but I’d much rather be in the Twins shoes than theirs.  

They know what 3m attendance means to revenue. They know how many beers and jerseys come with that. They know what a World Series win brings to the bottom line.  They know what kind of revenue a Japanese market brings in case of an improbable signing.  

They are well aware of all the revenue levels that each step of success brings which in turn limits how many years in a row they can operate at a loss.  They don’t have a path to some untapped discovery that all of sudden brings in 100s of millions to climb out of the hole.

The businesses that do it all the time usually go out of business, unless they cure cancer and hit a revenue jackpot.  Just look around your local neighborhoods and think about what survives and doesn’t.  A bailout from MLB would not count as a revenue jackpot, I’m pretty sure.

The self imposed is redundant anyway, every team has payroll constraints and they are all self imposed.  Disagree with the level that is set if you wish, but the self imposed modifier is an unnecessary dig at a front office that doesn’t deserve it here.  

[old nurse]

6 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

I’ll grant you self imposed if you grant me that they impose it so as not to go out of business.  Self imposed as in mildly responsible business practices.

When businesses decide to do what you are describing, running in the red for a longer term goal, they do with an expectation that the payoff will make them good on their investments.  No other reason. Never mind that the season or two of loss have already happened, the expectations of return are known.

They know they are losing revenue from the TV deal, set that aside.  How many years in a row would you suggest they lose all the money they made in the “wildly profitable” years each year?  With a decent TV deal, by the way, all available information points to 5-8% margins it those glory years.  Public utility numbers.

It’s an unfortunate set of circumstances, to be sure, but absent a dying billionaire raining millions they are bound by basic business rationality.  Kinda sad but cool we got to see how well the other way worked in San Diego but I’d much rather be in the Twins shoes than theirs.  

They know what 3m attendance means to revenue. They know how many beers and jerseys come with that. They know what a World Series win brings to the bottom line.  They know what kind of revenue a Japanese market brings in case of an improbable signing.  

They are well aware of all the revenue levels that each step of success brings which in turn limits how many years in a row they can operate at a loss.  They don’t have a path to some untapped discovery that all of sudden brings in 100s of millions to climb out of the hole.

The businesses that do it all the time usually go out of business, unless they cure cancer and hit a revenue jackpot.  Just look around your local neighborhoods and think about what survives and doesn’t.  A bailout from MLB would not count as a revenue jackpot, I’m pretty sure.

The self imposed is redundant anyway, every team has payroll constraints and they are all self imposed.  Disagree with the level that is set if you wish, but the self imposed modifier is an unnecessary dig at a front office that doesn’t deserve it here.  

It wouldn’t be the internet without a dig when you disagree with something 

[wabene]

The Pohlads are more than a billion ahead on this deal.

The Pohlads had many seasons when they did not spend to their market size.

In the Falvey era their spending has improved, but has been adequate, nothing more.

They choose not to strategically up their spending to make a run when they have an opportunity. 

A banker would definitely approve of their tight grip on financials. A fan? Not so much.

The Pohlads run a first class operation in many respects, but as St Peter's tone deaf comments illustrated, some of their sensibilities are lacking.

It surely is a self imposed spending limit. 

Edit: I apologize for the thread drift

[DJL44]

8 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

They know they are losing revenue from the TV deal, set that aside.  How many years in a row would you suggest they lose all the money they made in the “wildly profitable” years each year?

Until the window for contention is over. Then they can dump all the expensive guys, play rookies and watch the money flow in again.

Goddamn it, I want to see the Twins take a shot at winning when they have an opportunity - like the freaking Brewers do. I don't want to see them put their profits ahead of wins at every opportunity. Otherwise I think I could care more about my bank account balance than whether the Twins win, too.

[Brock Beauchamp]

8 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

I’ll grant you self imposed if you grant me that they impose it so as not to go out of business.  Self imposed as in mildly responsible business practices.

When businesses decide to do what you are describing, running in the red for a longer term goal, they do with an expectation that the payoff will make them good on their investments.  No other reason. Never mind that the season or two of loss have already happened, the expectations of return are known.

They know they are losing revenue from the TV deal, set that aside.  How many years in a row would you suggest they lose all the money they made in the “wildly profitable” years each year?  With a decent TV deal, by the way, all available information points to 5-8% margins it those glory years.  Public utility numbers.

It’s an unfortunate set of circumstances, to be sure, but absent a dying billionaire raining millions they are bound by basic business rationality.  Kinda sad but cool we got to see how well the other way worked in San Diego but I’d much rather be in the Twins shoes than theirs.  

They know what 3m attendance means to revenue. They know how many beers and jerseys come with that. They know what a World Series win brings to the bottom line.  They know what kind of revenue a Japanese market brings in case of an improbable signing.  

They are well aware of all the revenue levels that each step of success brings which in turn limits how many years in a row they can operate at a loss.  They don’t have a path to some untapped discovery that all of sudden brings in 100s of millions to climb out of the hole.

The businesses that do it all the time usually go out of business, unless they cure cancer and hit a revenue jackpot.  Just look around your local neighborhoods and think about what survives and doesn’t.  A bailout from MLB would not count as a revenue jackpot, I’m pretty sure.

The self imposed is redundant anyway, every team has payroll constraints and they are all self imposed.  Disagree with the level that is set if you wish, but the self imposed modifier is an unnecessary dig at a front office that doesn’t deserve it here.  

I'm actually pretty moderate on the entire payroll situation. I disagree with the Twins here because I think the TV revenue will re-stabilize at a lower number than 2023 pretty quickly, which means they will need to move payroll downward at some point in the near future.

I happen to think 2024 and 2025 are the wrong seasons to do it. You have prime Lopez, Buxton, Correa, et al. Spend a little more today knowing that those players aren't going to be in their primes forever.

But anyway, we've both explained our opinions, let's not derail the topic any more than we already have.

[Jocko87]

59 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I'm actually pretty moderate on the entire payroll situation. I disagree with the Twins here because I think the TV revenue will re-stabilize at a lower number than 2023 pretty quickly, which means they will need to move payroll downward at some point in the near future.

I happen to think 2024 and 2025 are the wrong seasons to do it. You have prime Lopez, Buxton, Correa, et al. Spend a little more today knowing that those players aren't going to be in their primes forever.

But anyway, we've both explained our opinions, let's not derail the topic any more than we already have.

I’m pretty down in the stabilization of TV revenue unfortunately. It’s going to be much lower than we think for quite a while.  The system is dead, but the head will keep twitching for years. The Hollywood studios are still around only because the union chose not to snuff them. 

Back on topic, I think they will be in on all kinds of pitchers and rightly so but will be spending prospects instead of money.  Kudos to them for being in a position to do that. 

Burnes and the Brewers are my #1 target but they need to do it preseason to keep the QO intact.  With the signing of Churio I’ll try to take one of the young controllable preferably RH outfielders in a package and call it most of an off-season.  Another depth/make good signing would be fine but less needed if they can get someone at the top. 

[Cris E]

13 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

But that absolutely is what's happening. You can understand and agree with their decision, that's fine. I happen to disagree. A business wholly owned by the Pohlads (and therefore not under pressure from minority stakeholders) can decide whether to be profitable and to what extent, particularly over the short-term of a season or two. Businesses do it all the time. 

I don't recall the team giving money back to the fans when they were wildly profitable running barebones payrolls from 2013-2014. Why is it okay for them to reap the rewards during boon times but play the role of the pauper when things temporarily go sideways?

You can stay with your "self-imposed budget cuts" if I can go to "catastrophic collapse of broadcast revenue" sixteen times a day.   Be advised it makes everything annoying to read.

[Brock Beauchamp]

6 minutes ago, Cris E said:

You can stay with your "self-imposed budget cuts" if I can go to "catastrophic collapse of broadcast revenue" sixteen times a day.   Be advised it makes everything annoying to read.

First, if you say anything 16 times a day, perhaps consider stopping doing that.

Second, "catastrophic collapse of broadcast revenue" is accurate and I have no problem with it.

Both things can be and are true.

[MABB1959]

Same old situation every off season.  We watch the good players get signed and wait until there is nothing left.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Cris E said:

if I can go to "catastrophic collapse of broadcast revenue"

I will believe it when I see it. Apple just paid $85M a year for 2 games a week. ESPN is paying $550M per season. I'm supposed to believe that the Twins TV rights are worthless the very next season.

[Fatbat]

Back on topic, It is possible to get a decent FA SP or via trade this offseason. Looking back on what the FO has done previously makes me hope they have learned their lesson on reclamation guys. We also have 2 guys(Varland &Festa) that look better than any of the guys in the same position over the last 7-8 years. I will have to exclude Ober because he was last years Varland situation. Having Ober be the odd man out worked perfectly. The same strategy should work to motivate Varland to up his game as well in ‘24. We need some depth but more importantly, we need a guy in October to shut down game 2. Is Giolitto that guy? How about Paddack? Someone has to be that guy or we don’t win 2 let alone 3 playoff series.  Its a huge gamble to wait until the aug trade deadline to get that guy. 
I see a team that can get to October as we stand now with a couple guys to round out the 40 man but we need to do better and get the guy that is going to drop the game 2 hammer.  Just get the guy.