Twins Expect to Add Starting Pitcher This Offseason

Giolito would provide innings and may see the Twins as a team to boost his stock on a one year deal. the one year could cost though (up to $20M).  However, Giolito may also get someone to throw a 4/$50M or better deal his way. Giolito has money already and should be looking to put himself at the top of a post 2024 pile of SP. Maybe the Twins get him for $13M.

I always liked both Miley and Montas, but they are not likely to throw as many innings. Their contracts will decide if the Twins can gamble on one of them. I think Varland is a better bet straight up though.

Pretty sure its been mentioned several times on here.  Its also been mentioned that they are looking at the trade market for SP so I don't think this sets it in stone for a FA SP but it does leave an option if they find someone of reasonable value.  In general though the FA bargain have not worked out well for the Twins.   Would rather just go with Varland.  Frankie Montas is interesting but would most likely get out of our price range.   The milb deal for a back up SP I have mentioned as well, but prior to the winter meetings this is the type of news we get.  

A Shoemaker reunion!!!!

If every year the Twins have a young, MLB caliber starter with options they can stash at AAA to start the season, they will have an advantage over most teams. Just like they did last year. You need depth. This could go a long way towards having another top of the league rotation. Last year it was Ober's cross to bear. This year it is Varland's.

The goal should be to have Louie waiting and stretched out in St Paul refining his arsenal.

Ideally they add someone to the top of the rotation that bumps Varland to the #6 spot in AAA and a young pitcher for the minor leagues they can use as the #7/8 option.

Worst case they add a veteran lefty who can move to the bullpen if they get beat out of a spot in the rotation.

47 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

If the Twins go for Miley or Montas it will show they learned nothing from the Archer/Bundy/Happ/Shoemaker days. 

 

How things have changed from when in almost every thread someone would post "Where Frankie?"

The feeling I got was when they mentioned looking to clear Kepler, Polanco, Farmer & Vazquez salary due to trade, to me it sounds that the salary they cut from trading these guys they will go out & look for a FAs. If this is their focus then this is a recipe for disaster. Trying to find a SP to replace Gray in FA won't work it never has. Trading anyone of these players especially Vazquez will create a big hole if they are looking to trade all of them the hole will be insurmountable. If they want to destroy the Twins & their fanbase this would be good way to do it. 

Just when you see them making good off season trades with Gray & Lopez you think they finally got things right. I hope I don't see them go back to their old pitiful ways.

I agree Brock.  It's not as if the Twins will go the entire 2024 season with zero TV or broadcasting revenue.  They'll have some, maybe a lot.  If this was a team that just finished 3rd in the division that had 3 promising rookies but wasn't close to contending, I'd understand this "SELF IMPOSED PAYROLL CONSTRAINT."  

But we're talking about a division champion who finally got the winless playoff monkey off their back.  They really have a 5-year window where they could rule the division.  But the other teams of the A.L. Central aren't just going to give the division to the Twins.  The ballclub needs to improve each year.  

I see a trade for a SP first.  They will probably use a Polanco or Kepler to acquire this pitcher and cut some payroll in the process.  Who in free agency they have their sights on is anybody's guess.  Luis Severino just signed with the Mets for one-year $13 million.  Severino has a better track record than Montas but he also pitched for better teams.  He's still a bit fragile which makes me lean more toward Giolito and gamble on the bounce back or take a chance on Trevor Bauer, who is healthy, can eat innings and if he has his velo and stuff back, like it appeared he did in Japan could be a one or two year option.  

Bauer is not "young" and I would prefer someone younger.  I'm not afraid of the clubhouse with a vet like Correa around.  But he could be an cost effective and solid rotation piece.  

6 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

I’ll grant you self imposed if you grant me that they impose it so as not to go out of business.  Self imposed as in mildly responsible business practices.

When businesses decide to do what you are describing, running in the red for a longer term goal, they do with an expectation that the payoff will make them good on their investments.  No other reason. Never mind that the season or two of loss have already happened, the expectations of return are known.

They know they are losing revenue from the TV deal, set that aside.  How many years in a row would you suggest they lose all the money they made in the “wildly profitable” years each year?  With a decent TV deal, by the way, all available information points to 5-8% margins it those glory years.  Public utility numbers.

It’s an unfortunate set of circumstances, to be sure, but absent a dying billionaire raining millions they are bound by basic business rationality.  Kinda sad but cool we got to see how well the other way worked in San Diego but I’d much rather be in the Twins shoes than theirs.  

They know what 3m attendance means to revenue. They know how many beers and jerseys come with that. They know what a World Series win brings to the bottom line.  They know what kind of revenue a Japanese market brings in case of an improbable signing.  

They are well aware of all the revenue levels that each step of success brings which in turn limits how many years in a row they can operate at a loss.  They don’t have a path to some untapped discovery that all of sudden brings in 100s of millions to climb out of the hole.

The businesses that do it all the time usually go out of business, unless they cure cancer and hit a revenue jackpot.  Just look around your local neighborhoods and think about what survives and doesn’t.  A bailout from MLB would not count as a revenue jackpot, I’m pretty sure.

The self imposed is redundant anyway, every team has payroll constraints and they are all self imposed.  Disagree with the level that is set if you wish, but the self imposed modifier is an unnecessary dig at a front office that doesn’t deserve it here.  

It wouldn’t be the internet without a dig when you disagree with something 

The Pohlads are more than a billion ahead on this deal.

The Pohlads had many seasons when they did not spend to their market size.

In the Falvey era their spending has improved, but has been adequate, nothing more.

They choose not to strategically up their spending to make a run when they have an opportunity. 

A banker would definitely approve of their tight grip on financials. A fan? Not so much.

The Pohlads run a first class operation in many respects, but as St Peter's tone deaf comments illustrated, some of their sensibilities are lacking.

It surely is a self imposed spending limit. 

Edit: I apologize for the thread drift

8 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

They know they are losing revenue from the TV deal, set that aside.  How many years in a row would you suggest they lose all the money they made in the “wildly profitable” years each year?

Until the window for contention is over. Then they can dump all the expensive guys, play rookies and watch the money flow in again.

Goddamn it, I want to see the Twins take a shot at winning when they have an opportunity - like the freaking Brewers do. I don't want to see them put their profits ahead of wins at every opportunity. Otherwise I think I could care more about my bank account balance than whether the Twins win, too.

13 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

But that absolutely is what's happening. You can understand and agree with their decision, that's fine. I happen to disagree. A business wholly owned by the Pohlads (and therefore not under pressure from minority stakeholders) can decide whether to be profitable and to what extent, particularly over the short-term of a season or two. Businesses do it all the time. 

I don't recall the team giving money back to the fans when they were wildly profitable running barebones payrolls from 2013-2014. Why is it okay for them to reap the rewards during boon times but play the role of the pauper when things temporarily go sideways?

You can stay with your "self-imposed budget cuts" if I can go to "catastrophic collapse of broadcast revenue" sixteen times a day.   Be advised it makes everything annoying to read.

Same old situation every off season.  We watch the good players get signed and wait until there is nothing left.

2 hours ago, Cris E said:

if I can go to "catastrophic collapse of broadcast revenue"

I will believe it when I see it. Apple just paid $85M a year for 2 games a week. ESPN is paying $550M per season. I'm supposed to believe that the Twins TV rights are worthless the very next season.

Back on topic, It is possible to get a decent FA SP or via trade this offseason. Looking back on what the FO has done previously makes me hope they have learned their lesson on reclamation guys. We also have 2 guys(Varland &Festa) that look better than any of the guys in the same position over the last 7-8 years. I will have to exclude Ober because he was last years Varland situation. Having Ober be the odd man out worked perfectly. The same strategy should work to motivate Varland to up his game as well in ‘24. We need some depth but more importantly, we need a guy in October to shut down game 2. Is Giolitto that guy? How about Paddack? Someone has to be that guy or we don’t win 2 let alone 3 playoff series.  Its a huge gamble to wait until the aug trade deadline to get that guy. 
I see a team that can get to October as we stand now with a couple guys to round out the 40 man but we need to do better and get the guy that is going to drop the game 2 hammer.  Just get the guy. 

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

Back on topic, It is possible to get a decent FA SP or via trade this offseason. Looking back on what the FO has done previously makes me hope they have learned their lesson on reclamation guys. We also have 2 guys(Varland &Festa) that look better than any of the guys in the same position over the last 7-8 years. I will have to exclude Ober because he was last years Varland situation. Having Ober be the odd man out worked perfectly. The same strategy should work to motivate Varland to up his game as well in ‘24. We need some depth but more importantly, we need a guy in October to shut down game 2. Is Giolitto that guy? How about Paddack? Someone has to be that guy or we don’t win 2 let alone 3 playoff series.  Its a huge gamble to wait until the aug trade deadline to get that guy. 
I see a team that can get to October as we stand now with a couple guys to round out the 40 man but we need to do better and get the guy that is going to drop the game 2 hammer.  Just get the guy. 

If you wanna take the next step, a frontline starter is the price of admission.