The Cleveland Guardians Don't Look Like a Team That's Going to Push

[Nick Nelson]

Is anyone in the AL Central going to mount a serious threat against the Twins in 2024? Cleveland's outlook does not inspire confidence.

Image courtesy of David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

A recently published offseason FAQ with Mandy Bell, the Guardians beat writer for MLB.com, included this passage:

"Will the Guardians be active in free agency?

After their two big (and uncharacteristic) free-agent signings in Josh Bell and Mike Zunino failed to pan out for them this year, let’s assume they’ll avoid that for 2024."

I don't begrudge Mandy for the response, which probably reflects the team's actual point of view with accuracy. But it's a statement that is sad on multiple levels. 

The uncharacteristically "big" free agent contracts referenced here, signed at a point where Cleveland was defending AL Central champs and looking to take the next step forward:

• Josh Bell: 2 years, $33 million
• Mike Zunino: 1 year, $6 million

Neither of these were terribly ambitious signings. Zunino was a bargain-bin pickup who performed accordingly. Bell was a relatively high-profile FA acquisition by Cleveland's standards, but he barely cost more than Minnesota paid for their eventual backup catcher.

Bell was actually decent in the first half before the Guardians traded him at the deadline to dump his salary, while still in the middle of a tight race. He'd have certainly helped them down the stretch, as he posted a 119 OPS+ with Miami after being traded, so claiming he "failed to pan out" is a bit disingenuous. 

What the question-and-answer above really gets at, in essence, is that the Cleveland Guardians under owner Larry Dolan are cheap as hell. It reminds me of the Twins back in their late-Metrodome era, which is a period I'd gladly never revisit as a fan. It's ironic how the Twins have now swung into the position of Goliath to Cleveland's David from a spending perspective, adding to their advantages in talent and continuity.

The Guardians franchise is in a weird moment of transition. Terry Francona has retired, leaving them to search for a new manager and preparing for a culture reset. This doesn't seem like the most attractive gig – trying to fill the shoes of a legend while dealing with the encumbrance of limited spending. 

I'll be honest, if I'm an in-demand manager on the hunt for a job (hello, Craig Counsell), and seeing some prime vacancies open with the Mets and Astros for example, I'm gonna look at what Cleveland did in 2023 – basically giving up in the middle of a wide-open race during Tito's last hurrah – and be really soured by it. This franchise exudes "don't give a s***" vibes. 

Will that same mentality guide their offseason? If Mandy Bell's inclination about their free agency intentions is correct, this seems like a fair expectation. And if they're not looking to upgrade aggressively following a 76-win season, with the reigning division champs ready to come back strong, then what is Cleveland's offseason strategy? 

It makes you wonder about a guy like Shane Bieber, who is set to make more than $12 million in his final year of arbitration and team control. Now would be the time to trade him, albeit at less than peak value following an injury-marred season. If Cleveland isn't going to make any kind of competitive push, you even have to wonder about Jose Ramirez, who's got five years remaining under contract but could be open to waiving his no-trade clause if it means going somewhere with a real motivation to win.

Minnesota will be keeping a close eye on the team that has most often been their chief rival in the AL Central over the past five years. The White Sox are in disarray and the Royals are hopeless. Detroit might be the most credible threat in the division if the Guardians aren't even going to mount an offensive.

I wouldn't dismiss the Tigers off-hand, but they've got work to do. They finished below .500 with a minus-79 run differential this year (expected W/L = 73-89) and they, like the Twins, are losing a top starter to free agency in Eduardo Rodriguez. 

I don't think these developments should be impact Minnesota's offseason approach per se – the goal for 2024 should be to win 100 games and earn a first-round bye, regardless of what the rest of the division does – but a passive winter from the rest of the Central might make them more inclined to stand pat, hold court, and wait until the trade deadline to make their big push.

At the very least, it all contributes to why I view this as a likely slow-moving offseason for the Twins, who are tracking a number of external factors that will influence their own path forward.

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[CRF]

Detroit is the team that I'd be concerned about. They're definitely improving.

[RickOShea]

Maybe Cleveland has a genuine disrespect for the Twins,   Maybe, they don't feel they have to do very much in having a team overtake the Twins in 2024.

[Parfigliano]

Det picked up Mark Canha in a trade yesterday.

[ashbury]

If the lack of credible competition within the division dissuades the Twins' FO from making moves that strengthen them for a post-season run, I'll be very disappointed.  So this insight into the Guardians' plan really doesn't move me.

[Vanimal46]

7 minutes ago, ashbury said:

If the lack of credible competition within the division dissuades the Twins' FO from making moves that strengthen them for a post-season run, I'll be very disappointed.  So this insight into the Guardians' plan really doesn't move me.

Bingo. I don’t care too much about what others in the division are planning. What are the Astros/Yankees/Rays/Rangers/Blue Jays planning? We need to, as you said, strengthen the team for a post season run. Regardless if the Guardians take a step back and the other teams in the division aren’t ready for prime time. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The Guardians need some upgrades for sure, but they lost Bieber and McKenzie to injury last season, which the writer fails to mention. Imagine if the Twins had lost Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray to injury. 

Cleveland is young and well run. They actually advanced further in the postseason in 2022 than the Twins did in 2023, if that means anything. No reason to think they are entering a dark age based off of one bad season.

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

Cleveland has completely forgotten that they need to score runs to win games. The focus and emphasis on their club is has always been the famed pitching pipeline, but the offenses of the '16/'17/'18 teams were fantastic, with Lindor/J-Ram/Brantley/Santana spearheading a patient and powerful lineup. Today, they seem to focus on these Denard Span-style slap hitters and the Naylor brothers. It's too hard to try and win 90 games 2-1, I am much more concerned with a Detroit team that can spend money and field and above-average offense.

[old nurse]

Josh Bell returned them a 20 year old prospect that was once highly ranked.. The signing was not all that bad. 

[Nashvilletwin]

Cleveland lost their biggest advantage - Terry Francona. He will be hard to replace.

The Guardians, and for that matter the Tigers, White Sox, or Royals either, are not keeping me up at night.  The Twins should be focused on what it will take to win the American League - not just the Central.

[tony&rodney]

While my confidence may be solid that the Twins can repeat as AL Central winners, I do remember that Cleveland won the division in 2022 by more games than the Minnesota team did in 2023. Don't dismiss any team, the games are always won on the field. Who had Arizona in the World Series?

I, too, believe that Terry Francona shed an aura of calm and competence that gave young players the confidence to play without looking over their shoulder. That said, the Guardians need to add some players who can drive the ball. 

The Twins need to think holistically about how they can repeat their advantages of the depth of 2023 while adding to their talent. While I have no clue if Falvey will take any measured chances this offseason as he did last year, I believe the opportunities are there. 

[roger]

Not directly related to Cleveland, but on topic for moves that would help the Twins in '24, is today the day minor league players who are eligible to become free agents must be added to the 40-man to retain their rights?  Was curious if the Twins would act to keep that catcher from St. Paul.

[Riverbrian]

When was the last time Cleveland did something significant in the free agent market?

They will do significant things elsewhere and be competitive. 

[mikelink45]

I agree with the comments about the other division leaders - if we are serious we are not just competing in the central.  

[Patzky]

12 hours ago, CRF said:

Detroit is the team that I'd be concerned about. They're definitely improving.

Solid pitching and defense with a good young core. I could see their 'window' coinciding with ours in a year or two.

[Trov]

This division, outside of the Twins, do not look like anyone really trying to win next season.  KC barring a huge surprise is still deep in rebuild.  They have a superstar at SS, but outside of him they lack much.  White Sox appear to be blowing it up with the new FO and go full rebuild.  Detroit keeps trying but always seem to be just missing something, mainly pitching.  They could come up next year and had some good stretches, doing well against the division, I expect they will be in second place next year.  Cleveland is out their HOF manager, and that alone should be huge because I feel he kept that team going like Lou Brown.  They cannot find offense outside of really 2 or 3 main guys.  They always seem to find pitching, and should have a good rotation again, but they cannot score enough runs, the pen really hurt them last year, with their closer blowing a ton of saves.  

[Dman]

11 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

The Guardians need some upgrades for sure, but they lost Bieber and McKenzie to injury last season, which the writer fails to mention. Imagine if the Twins had lost Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray to injury. 

Cleveland is young and well run. They actually advanced further in the postseason in 2022 than the Twins did in 2023, if that means anything. No reason to think they are entering a dark age based off of one bad season.

I am with you. Don't write Cleveland's obituary quite yet.  They had a tough season injury wise and were still a threat to the Twins into September.  While they will likely trade Bieber and come out with great pieces they also have a young pitching staff that pitched well until later in the season. 

The bat's regressed for Cleveland last year but they will likely bring up Manzardo early next year and he has been an exceptional hitter all the way up to AAA where he finally struggled a little.  DeLauter looks like a fast mover.  Hard to say how quickly he will handle the higher levels but he could be an option for them as early as next year.  That doesn't include what they might get for Bieber.

Their pen and rotation are still top of the league.  They might not do much in FA but the pieces are still there to hang tough and have a good to great season depending on the injury bug.  The one thing they do lack is depth almost everywhere.  Injuries could hurt them more than other teams.

Still IMO if they could compete with the broken down team they had last year then they can compete with the team they will put out in 2024.  

[jorgenswest]

They have very promising young talent. They had 5 starters 25 and under last year with a lot of promise in Bibee, McKenzie, Allen, Williams and Curry with Clase at the top of the bullpen.  They have Daniel Espino returning sometime midseason and certainly a factor in 2025. They almost can afford to trade Bieber. He will bring in even more young talent,

Several of their young 25 and under bats from last year will be adding power as they enter their primes and have seen a few years major league pitching. Easily to join them are Rocchio and Manzardo.

Like the Rays, I would never dismiss this organization from putting together a competitive team.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

When was the last time Cleveland did something significant in the free agent market?

They will do significant things elsewhere and be competitive. 

Josh Bell was a pretty significant add but he was below league average.  Now that he was traded, they only project at $90M for payroll so it's all together possible they spend some money on a bat or two.  If the Twins can spend $150, Cleveland should be able to spend in the neighborhood of $120M.  One big bat would be pretty impactful for them.

[miracleb]

12 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Det picked up Mark Canha in a trade yesterday.

Probably deserves a "yawn," but an upgrade from Akil Baddoo...from either side of the plate......

[Cory Engelhardt]

13 hours ago, CRF said:

Detroit is the team that I'd be concerned about. They're definitely improving.

2nd'd over here.

[Jeff K]

10 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

While my confidence may be solid that the Twins can repeat as AL Central winners, I do remember that Cleveland won the division in 2022 by more games than the Minnesota team did in 2023. Don't dismiss any team, the games are always won on the field. Who had Arizona in the World Series?

I, too, believe that Terry Francona shed an aura of calm and competence that gave young players the confidence to play without looking over their shoulder. That said, the Guardians need to add some players who can drive the ball. 

The Twins need to think holistically about how they can repeat their advantages of the depth of 2023 while adding to their talent. While I have no clue if Falvey will take any measured chances this offseason as he did last year, I believe the opportunities are there. 

I'm of the opinion that the Twins will be moderately aggressive.  I think the organization wants more and knows that teams like the Orioles, Rangers and Astros are who we should be thinking about competing with.  I would be surprised if we don't land one of the better starting pitchers on the market.

[Woof Bronzer]

I'm already very nervous about the vibes I'm getting around the team, which seem to be, this division is so bad we can cut payroll and still win it, and since two mediocre teams made the WS this year, winning the division will give us as good a shot as anyone at winning the Series.  All I can say is, good luck to the FO with that approach.  

I also don't think a comment made by a beat reporter gives us any sort of meaningful insight into their offseason plans.

 

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Jeff K said:

I think the organization wants more and knows that teams like the Orioles, Rangers and Astros are who we should be thinking about competing with. 

I agree with this. While the Twins are very competitive in a series with any of these teams, they still need to take a few steps to become equals with the top teams over the long haul. The key, as always, is talent. I'm still not convinced the Twins will add a SP from free agency. I do think they make a gamble on a few trades. Personally, I'm hoping for four trades.