How the Twins' Best Player Reveals Their Biggest Postseason Concern

[Nick Nelson]

Sonny Gray has been, without question, one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. And yet the Twins have managed to lose a lot of his starts in spite of it.

Image courtesy of Ken Blaze, USA Today Sports

Twins Daily writers and contributors recently received their annual end-of-September request to fill out awards ballots for the concluding campaign. As always, the first question: Who was the Twins MVP this year? 

There have been times in the past where that question felt difficult to answer. This year presents an especially vexing conundrum.

Royce Lewis probably made the biggest impact while on the field. But he only played 58 games. Max Kepler was probably the single most instrumental player in the offense's second-half resurgence. But he was also downright horrible in the first half. 

Edouard Julien, Ryan Jeffers and Willi Castro also have cases, but they are at best incomplete cases.

The most straightforward and obvious answer, when you take all the narratives out of it, is Sonny Gray. Spoiler alert – he was at the top of my ballot.

For me, it's as simple as this: Gray was the best performer on the team, and by a considerable margin. He easily led all Twins players in fWAR and bWAR, more than doubling any position player in either category. In fact, Gray ranked third in the major leagues according to both mainstream valuation metrics. His ERA is third-lowest in baseball, and he's been especially lights-out as the Twins have sewn it up down the stretch, with a 2.01 ERA and 2.72 FIP in 10 August/September starts.

A pretty open-and-shut case, until you start asking yourself what "valuable" means. Because here's the thing: Despite his brilliance, the Twins have gone just 14-17 in Gray's starts. That's a .452 winning percentage compared to .552 in games where he didn't appear.

Does that mean his performance was "less valuable"? Not at all, which is why I've never prescribed to this model of thinking in evaluating baseball's Most Valuable Player. The sport, by nature, limits the impact of individual contributions, making it all too easy for superlative performances to be offset and outweighed once the dust settles. Just ask Shohei Ohtani! 

I'm not breaking any new ground here, but the subject feels highly relevant as we look ahead to the Twins hosting a best-of-three Wild Card Series at Target Field, as they did three years ago when we saw the very same example play out. 

Facing a Houston Astros team that could very well be returning to Minneapolis next week, Kenta Maeda and Jose Berrios delivered the kinds of performances you almost ideally hope for from this year's stacked playoff rotation. They combined for 10 innings of one-run ball, doing all they could to set up the offense and bullpen for streak-shattering success.

It wasn't enough. Successive afternoons saw the same script play out, with Minnesota's sleepy offense leaving the door wide open for late rallies by the Astros against the Twins bullpen. 4-1, 3-1. Within barely 24 hours, the whole ride was over. 

For that matter, it was the same story last time Target Field hosted a playoff game before that, one year earlier, when Jake Odorizzi tossed five solid innings against the Yankees in a 5-1 elimination loss.

If you don't score, it doesn't matter how well you pitch. This cold truth has haunted the Twins in October, with just five total runs scored in their last four postseason games hosted at Target Field.

Memories of such failure and futility were evoked on Saturday as the Twins, fresh off celebrating their clinched division title Friday night, wasted a stellar performance from Gray in a 1-0 loss. Under the circumstances it was nothing all that meaningful or worrisome, but given how many times we've seen a similar story play out with Gray this year – and with the Minnesota Twins in postseasons past – no one could be blamed for finding the experience a rather ominous follow-up to the climactic high point of the season. 

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[Karbo]

Saturday was a loss IMO that was due to sitting 5 regular starters. In other words, the "B" team lost.

[mike8791]

Couldn't agree more, Nick!  What good is great pitching if your offense is AWOL.   While this rotation is the deepest we've seen in many years(probably since 1991), great starts in our last 2 playoff series did little good.  And the comparisons are chillingly the same this year: a hot and cold offense that can explode but still comes up short in too many close games  and a shaky pen headed by a very vulnerable-looking closer, followed by our other pseudo "shutdown" arms(I'm looking at you Jax, Pagan, and Thielbar to a lesser extent).

Yes, the Twins offense's numbers look much better post-All Star but they still have the very disturbing habit of failing to support good pitching(Gray is the obvious example here).  In the playoffs there will be no weak pitchers to feast on.  This lineup has no real sparkplug, save Lewis< who can be labeled a clutch hitter.  If he is absent or not fully recovered to pre-injury performance, name one other player you can count on to deliver a key hit?? It should have been easy to answer Correa and Bux, but that hope is greatly diminished by now, I'm afraid.  Solano, Castro and Farmer are great role players but can they be counted on in pressure situations?  This team's propensity to K in clutch situations has become a regular signature of the 2023 season.  Will it change in October?

Not all doom and gloom here.  I expect them to break their horrible streak, assuming Rocco is smart enough to bring in guys like Varland, Maeda, and hopefully Stewart/Paddack in place of Jax and, yes, even Duran if necessary.  But unless this offense takes their collective hands away from their necks, I find it unlikely this team can pull off a series win.  Hope I'm dead wrong!!

 

[Patzky]

Spot on. I have wondered if there's something about Sonny's pace or kismet that lulls the team to sleep when the Twins batters step to the plate. Is that even possible? Pablo gets a ton of run support, does he do something on the mound outside of pitching well that fires up the team? Just wondering.. there 'shouldn't' be a correlation, but..

[old nurse]

In a 2 win series one pitcher gets you only half the way there. Winning baseball is a team effort. It will take a few of the hitters to come through. 

[IndianaTwin]

With the way Gray pitched, if the Twins were 14-17 in his starts, I think the more logical response is, "Thank goodness for Gray. If it hadn't been for him, the Twins likely would have been 10-21 in those games" (or some other number, but you get the point).

[MinnInPa]

Lopez and Gray will keep us in games....but this enemic K prone offense will be our doom....I'm hoping we do NOT see Buxton, Wallner or Larnach in the lineup often( i d rather see Solano, Farmer, Stevensen come up in a pressure situation than these 3)..and please please please...maybe consider moving a guy into scoring position with a bunt ..instead of seeing the never ending double play ball by Correa and company.. so many innings of single, single...K, double play..) 0 runs.. so exhausting watching these double digit K games

[JD-TWINS]

26 minutes ago, MinnInPa said:

Lopez and Gray will keep us in games....but this enemic K prone offense will be our doom....I'm hoping we do NOT see Buxton, Wallner or Larnach in the lineup often( i d rather see Solano, Farmer, Stevensen come up in a pressure situation than these 3)..and please please please...maybe consider moving a guy into scoring position with a bunt ..instead of seeing the never ending double play ball by Correa and company.. so many innings of single, single...K, double play..) 0 runs.. so exhausting watching these double digit K games

Gotta use some logic & not 100% emotion, IMO. Solano & Farmer don’t play in the OF so they aren’t displacing Wallner. Doubtful Larnach nor Stevenson are on the October roster. If Stevenson starts in a game we are toast!!

I like the bunt move to get things going from a run scoring standpoint!

………………..

Is Sonny Gray our MVP is the question?

If Lewis’ 50 plus games is not enough to be considered for this honor then I struggle with Gray’s 31 games being more valuable.

Has Gray performed “closest to expectations” or has he “outperformed expectations” ……I grant those. He’s been healthy as well - that’s a big deal!

We took off early when Kirilloff showed up & he stabilizes the middle of this line-up. Not enough time in the line-up for MVP.

Honestly, the only guy worthy of this & a guy that has affected enough games/played enough games is one I screamed for to be DFA’d in middle of June. Max Kepler. If he doesn’t turn it around Big Time, we are not where we’ve ended up. Since July 1 he’s been one of the best all-around RF in the game. Him gathering himself after a terrible start…..terrible first 80 games, earns him this honor.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

So far this year there are 143 SP in all of MLB with at least 15 starts, here are the Twins starters with their ranking and run support:

#27  Maeda  5.45 runs per game
#28  Lopez   5.42 rpg
#41   Ryan    5.14 rpg
.
.
.
#126  Gray   3.81 rpg

[Nine of twelve]

The contrast between "best" and "most valuable" is interesting. A great case study is Steve Carlton in 1972. He had one of the best seasons a starting pitcher has ever had but he pitched for a Phillies team that finished in last place by a wide margin. So as great as he was that year he was not valuable. At all. Sonny Gray's situation is different. Even though the Twins lost an inordinate number of games he started his consistency was a significant contribution to the team's success, and from what I understand the intangibles of having him on the roster were also an asset. I wouldn't say he's the clear-cut team MVP but neither is anyone else on the roster. I certainly think he's a legitimate choice.

[RIP BYTO]

One thing that scares me the most about this post season is the appearance of the 12K Twins offense.

The pitching will be fine, but you don't win in the postseason striking out in double digits.

[Swing Batter-Batter]

2 hours ago, MinnInPa said:

Lopez and Gray will keep us in games....but this enemic K prone offense will be our doom....I'm hoping we do NOT see Buxton, Wallner or Larnach in the lineup often( i d rather see Solano, Farmer, Stevensen come up in a pressure situation than these 3)..and please please please...maybe consider moving a guy into scoring position with a bunt ..instead of seeing the never ending double play ball by Correa and company.. so many innings of single, single...K, double play..) 0 runs.. so exhausting watching these double digit K games

Agreed, all the way around. You can't score on a strikeout, put the ball in play, things do happen.

[Fatbat]

Someone should do a deep dive into why we lost 17 games that Sonny pitched. I can’t take “Gray team MVP” seriously. Seriously. 

[dogsday]

It's great that the Twins will enter the playoffs with good starting pitching. But so will the other playoff teams. If the Twins face Seattle in the first round, in games one and two, they will face Castillo and Gilbert. If it's Toronto, it's Berrios and Gausman. If it's Houston it's Verlander and Valdez. The Texas starters are harder to predict (because of injuries) but they also have potentially good front line starting pitching (Dunning, Scherzer, Gray, Eovoldi...).

As the article notes, The Twins will need to score some runs (and get good pitching) to advance.

[ToddlerHarmon]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

If Lewis’ 50 plus games is not enough to be considered for this honor then I struggle with Gray’s 31 games being more valuable.

Royce Lewis was on the field for 200 plate appearances and maybe 50 chances at third. Sonny Gray got 540 outs (180 innings) and gave up about 200 base runners. As much as I love Lewis, I have no problem saying Gray made more impact.

[python85]

25 minutes ago, dogsday said:

If the Twins face Seattle in the first round, in games one and two, they will face Castillo and Gilbert. If it's Toronto, it's Berrios and Gausman. If it's Houston it's Verlander and Valdez

Not necessarily. Right now the race for the third Wild Card is close. If it stays close those teams are going to have to use their top starters on Saturday and Sunday just to get in leaving them unavailable for at least game 1. That is what the Twins should really be hoping for.

[JD-TWINS]

41 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Someone should do a deep dive into why we lost 17 games that Sonny pitched. I can’t take “Gray team MVP” seriously. Seriously. 

Am assuming he’s pitching against top of rotation opponents……,we are scoring 1.5 runs less for him than we do for Ryan - Maeda - Lopez. Difficult for him to get wins if he’s behind or even when he leaves the game.

[Brandon]

The solution to preventing the bullpen implosion we see in past years is easy.  Gray and Lopez will have to pitch complete games to secure their wins.  If Berrios or Meada stayed in their games longer and pitched more than 5 innings.  They could have saved the bullpen from themselves and the streak would have ended back then.  

[Wizard11]

I would love to hear some fan’s theories on why we are going to win in the postseason.  It is boring and a buzzkill to keep reading so many entries about why we are going to lose.  

Could all you predictors of doom (someone actually used that term) go descend on an Astros fan site and work your dark magic there?  You will have all winter to come back here and kvetch about the “terrible” Twins and the leadership you despise.  

1987 & 1991 were filled with good vibes.  Long time Twins fans deserve the same for 2023..

[IaBeanCounter]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

Someone should do a deep dive into why we lost 17 games that Sonny pitched. I can’t take “Gray team MVP” seriously. Seriously. 

Of Gray's 31 starts the Twins scored 3 or less 17 times with a record of 6-11 a winning percentage of 35.3%.  Of the 11 losses the bullpen had a BS in 5 of them.  The BP has had 26 games with a BS (1 game had 2 BS), 10 of which Gray was the starter.   Gray had a BS in 32.3% of his starts.  There were 16 games with BS over the remaining 125 games, or 12.8%

The Twins have a total of 64 games scoring 3 runs or less with a 15-49 record so the bats have been consistent with the other starters.  In the 47 other games scoring 3 runs or less the record is 9-38, a winning percentage of 19.1%

IMHO Gray gave the the Twins a greater chance to win when the bats weren't performing and had the bullpen let him down more often that the other starters.  Therefore I believe he is the Twins 2023 MVP, as a replacement starter would have lost substantially more games than Gray.

 

[dex8425]

3 hours ago, dogsday said:

It's great that the Twins will enter the playoffs with good starting pitching. But so will the other playoff teams. If the Twins face Seattle in the first round, in games one and two, they will face Castillo and Gilbert. If it's Toronto, it's Berrios and Gausman. If it's Houston it's Verlander and Valdez. The Texas starters are harder to predict (because of injuries) but they also have potentially good front line starting pitching (Dunning, Scherzer, Gray, Eovoldi...).

As the article notes, The Twins will need to score some runs (and get good pitching) to advance.

Scherzer is likely done for the year. I do think the Twins' low scoring during Gray's starts has to do with frequently facing the other teams' staff ace. 

[Blyleven2011]

8 hours ago, mike8791 said:

 

Not all doom and gloom here ...  i find it unlikely this team can pull off a series win.  Hope I'm dead wrong!!

 

I hope your dead wrong too ...

Let's just say the Twins have a 50 /50 chance of advancing ...

Or Rocco cannot continue to manage the same way he manages during the season  ...

It's win or go home , a manager needs to make things happen for his players , play small ball if necessary  , let's see how he does ,  2019 and 2020 I was not impressed  ...

[Nine of twelve]

5 hours ago, Swing Batter-Batter said:

You can't score on a strikeout, 

Actually, you can, if the pitch is not held by the catcher. A runner can score on a wild pitch, a passed ball, or an error.

[Fatbat]

23 hours ago, IaBeanCounter said:

Of Gray's 31 starts the Twins scored 3 or less 17 times with a record of 6-11 a winning percentage of 35.3%.  Of the 11 losses the bullpen had a BS in 5 of them.  The BP has had 26 games with a BS (1 game had 2 BS), 10 of which Gray was the starter.   Gray had a BS in 32.3% of his starts.  There were 16 games with BS over the remaining 125 games, or 12.8%

The Twins have a total of 64 games scoring 3 runs or less with a 15-49 record so the bats have been consistent with the other starters.  In the 47 other games scoring 3 runs or less the record is 9-38, a winning percentage of 19.1%

IMHO Gray gave the the Twins a greater chance to win when the bats weren't performing and had the bullpen let him down more often that the other starters.  Therefore I believe he is the Twins 2023 MVP, as a replacement starter would have lost substantially more games than Gray.

 

Your conclusion is pure conjecture.  Those games that gray pitched would have been completely different. You cant just remove gray and not have 1000 other consequences. 

[IaBeanCounter]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

Your conclusion is pure conjecture.  Those games that gray pitched would have been completely different. You cant just remove gray and not have 1000 other consequences. 

I don't believe that is "pure conjecture" as it based on the following assumptions:

1) Twins scoring results will not change based on whether Gray is pitching or "replacement player".  To say otherwise is to believe that the Twins batters have a bias against Gray and don't want score runs when he pitches.

2) Any "replacement player" will have a worse ERA as evidenced by Gray leading the team starters in ERA.

3) Any "replacement player" will pitch fewer innings, putting more stress on the bullpen.  Gray averaged 5.8 innings per start (second only to Lopez).  In the 22 games not started by Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Maeda or Ober the pitchers average 4.95 innings per start, almost a full inning worse than Gray meaning that the bullpen will have to pick up an additional  26.4 innings over the 31 Gray starts.  

Based on the above, I do agree that the results "would have been completely different", in that the Twins would have had more losses. 

What assumptions do you have that the Twins would have had results better than Gray's with a "replacement player" pitching? 

[Fatbat]

5 hours ago, IaBeanCounter said:

I don't believe that is "pure conjecture" as it based on the following assumptions:

1) Twins scoring results will not change based on whether Gray is pitching or "replacement player".  To say otherwise is to believe that the Twins batters have a bias against Gray and don't want score runs when he pitches.

2) Any "replacement player" will have a worse ERA as evidenced by Gray leading the team starters in ERA.

3) Any "replacement player" will pitch fewer innings, putting more stress on the bullpen.  Gray averaged 5.8 innings per start (second only to Lopez).  In the 22 games not started by Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Maeda or Ober the pitchers average 4.95 innings per start, almost a full inning worse than Gray meaning that the bullpen will have to pick up an additional  26.4 innings over the 31 Gray starts.  

Based on the above, I do agree that the results "would have been completely different", in that the Twins would have had more losses. 

What assumptions do you have that the Twins would have had results better than Gray's with a "replacement player" pitching? 

Its not as easy as just penciling in “a replacement player” but if thats your parameters I understand what your saying and how you come to those conclusions.