Mets 2, Twins 0: Lopez's Gem is Wasted as Twins Take Sunday Off at the Plate

[Steven Trefz]

Pablo Lopez brought his Sunday best, setting two personal milestones on the mound, and the Twins still lost. Here's how this getaway dud of a game went down.

Image courtesy of Michael McLoone - USA Today

Box Score
Starting Pitcher: Pablo Lopez - 8 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 14 K (106 Pitches, 73 Strikes, 69% Strikes)
Home Runs: None
Bottom WPA: Griffin Jax (-.410), Alex Kirilloff (-.178), Matt Wallner (-.140)
Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

Sunday brought last-minute changes to the line-up, a pitching milestone, and the opening of the NFL season a few blocks down the street from Target Field. Jorge Polanco was placed on the bereavement list hours before game time, and Gilberto Celestino made his 2023 return to the ball club as the corresponding move. Donovan Solano took over at second base, bumping Edouard Julien into the DH spot. Pablo Lopez got the start one day after his "Los Twins" jersey was distributed to the masses. While the Vikings attempted to begin anew, the Twins were busy trying to finish off a series sweep. Fans of both teams were left wanting.

It's Been "Pablo Day" All Year Long
The first out of the game was a momentous one, as Lopez struck out his 200th batter of the season. Lopez became the ninth Twins to reach the feat, and it was his first season for such an accomplishment. 2018's version of Jose Berrios was the last Twin to achieve the mark, and Twins fans would agree that that if Lopez could reach a happy middle ground between Berrios and four-time 200 strikeout man Johan Santana, its going to be a good few seasons enjoying Lopez' contract extension! 

Lopez didn't stop at 200. Will he reach the 265 mark set by Santana in 2004? Probably not. But he's getting closer to his idol inning by inning. 

Scoring Runs is Hard to Do...Apparently
Last year's opening day pitcher for the Mets, Tylor Megill (also known as former Twins pitcher Tyler's brother) tried to silence the Twins lineup. The first time through, all was quiet on the offensive front. In the bottom of the third, the second run through the lineup brought better plate appearances but still no runs. Alex Kirilloff laced a sinking liner to left, and Julien got caught in no-man's land between first and second, and was forced out at second on the trapped ball. Royce Lewis had a chance to open up the scoring with Castro on third, Kirilloff on second, and two outs, but a soft liner down the left field line landed just foul. Eventually Lewis squared up the ball, directly to the third baseman, and on to the middle innings we went still tied at 0-0.

In Sunday games this season, the Twins have reflected their overall summer vibe. They've gone 11-12, averaging 3.91 runs per game. While this screams "average," in 10 of the 23 games the Twins have scored two or fewer runs. This is the offensive element that gives me the most pause heading into the playoff push.

Lopez Keeps Dealing K's, but the Twins Bats Stay Quiet
Maybe Lopez will reach Santana's record at this rate! He struck out the side in the fourth, and other than a hit batter he was spotless through five. The top of the sixth brought two more, to put Lopez's six inning total to 10 K's on only 77 pitches.

Kirilloff's double-play ball to second ended a threat for the Twins in the bottom of the fifth, as Megill limited the Twins to two hits. Megill's pitch count was not nearly as tidy, however, and he was finished at 93 pitches after five innings of work.

Mets Bullpen = Runs?
Statistically speaking, the Mets bullpen has not enjoyed facing the Twins this week. In the first two games of the series, Mets relievers have surrendered eight runs in four innings of work. Phil Bickford got the call in the sixth, and he walked Lewis to start the inning. Max Kepler was next up, and Dick Bremer erroneously cried "Home Run wolf" for what felt like the 90th time this series, and as Kepler's ball failed to reach the warning track, Lewis scampered to third on the tag. With a runner at third, and less than two outs, the Twins were back in September's version of "bases loaded no outs" with Carlos Correa up at the plate. Correa fanned, putting the slumping Matt Wallner into the hero's spot. A weak pop fly to center ended yet another threat in a game where one run feels like 1,000,000.

How Far Can He Go?
With the Twins having placed themselves well into the driver's seat of the AL Central, one of the talking points heading into the final weeks of the season revolved around pitch counts and innings for the playoff-caliber starting staff. How far would Rocco Baldelli allow Lopez to go in this game? In the seventh inning, Lopez struck out two more on only 14 pitches, to equal his career high mark at 12 K's for the game. The eighth inning brought the Twins ace back onto the mound (or, perhaps it was the utter failure of the Twins offense that did it...). Two more strike outs, a career high 14 for the game, and the Target Field faithful who chose baseball over football today gave him a well-deserved standing ovation.

Does Someone Want to Win This Game?
Unfortunately the Mets did. Griffin Jax came in for the ninth, and immediately got Francisco Lindor to hit a weak fly ball to left. Wallner got there eventually, dove for it but for some reason turned his glove upside down at the exact moment the glove should have been open, and a gift double was the result. Jax then hit Jeff McNeil on an 0-2 pitch. Two batters later, DJ Stewart hit the ball a long ways to the gap and it was 2-0 Mets.

Adam Ottavino entered to attempt the save. Correa greeted his second pitch with 110 mph of angst for a lead-off double. Wallner's offensive woes continued with a strike out. Trevor Larnach, your table is ready.

Lopez's brilliant start was wasted, a winnable game was placed yet again on the Sunday afternoon disinterested offensive effort pile, and attention in Twins Territory can once again promptly turn towards yelling at the Vikings.

Next Up
The Twins look to avenge their mid-season sweep in Tampa Bay by sending RHP Sonny Gray (7-6, 2.98 ERA) up against his ERA doppleganger RHP Tyler Glasnow (8-5, 2.98 ERA). Thanks to Cleveland wasting a gem by their ace Tanner Bibee, the Twins still hold a 7.5 game lead on the AL Central and saw their magic number drop to 12 on Sunday. First pitch at Target Field is scheduled for 6:40pm CDT on Monday.

Up-to-Date Standings

AL Central	W	L	Pct	GB
Minnesota	75	68	.524	0.0
Cleveland	68	76	.472	7.5

Post-Game Interviews

 

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

	WED	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN	TOT
Varland	43	0	0	20	0	63
Jax	0	0	8	0	24	32
Funderburk	11	0	0	15	0	26
Thielbar	0	0	15	10	0	25
Durán	0	0	14	0	0	14
Pagán	0	0	11	0	0	11
Floro	0	0	0	11	0	11
Headrick	0	0	0	0	0	0
Winder	0	0	0	0	0	0

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[BH67]

Starting pitching for the Twins in the playoffs will provide a huge advantage against teams of similar skill.

Maybe Rocco wanted to see if Jax could put together stops in consecutive appearances. He could afford that luxury today.

Bats were stymied. It happens occasionally. The overall trend is very good.

The Guardians may yet lose today.

Kirk Cousins reverted to pre-2022 form. PJ Fleck is wasting another good defense. All good reason to focus on baseball entirely. Go Twins!

(UPDATE: GUARDIANS LOSE. Magic number 12.)

[rwilfong86]

Cleveland lost so today's result isn't as bad as it could have been.

[rwilfong86]

Wallner is also starting to look like Gallo 2.0, way too many strikeouts 

[mikelink45]

I am concerned about Jax.  Does he have times to get right?

And Wallner has disappeared.  I agree with another comment - Larnach time.

But most important Lopez is ready for the playoffs. 

[SwainZag]

12 minutes ago, rwilfong86 said:

Wallner is also starting to look like Gallo 2.0, way too many strikeouts 

Unfortunately that has always been Wallner's issue.  Expecting anything below a 30% K rate probably isn't going to happen.

[stringer bell]

I was in my car in the middle innings when Castro was on second, Julien on first with one out when Kirilloff hit a ball the fell in front of the left fielder, but Julien was forced out. Was that a mistake by Julien or just one of those things. If Julien gets to second, it is bases loaded with one out. 

[tony&rodney]

Pablo is so much fun to watch pitch and he is also such a well spoken person in interviews.

Wallner seems to have forgotten about left field and has resorted to more uppercuts as well. He doesn't look like a tough out right now. Julien is in a slump but still is giving pitchers a headache by fouling off pitches and taking walks. He sure is missing some pitches that look like he should mash though, which means he is in a slump.

[Dave Borton]

26 minutes ago, rwilfong86 said:

Wallner is also starting to look like Gallo 2.0, way too many strikeouts 

Are stats piling up in the data dept for other clubs and pitches/weak spots ID'd?

[tony&rodney]

6 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Was that a mistake by Julien or just one of those things.

Did Gladden or Provus comment on it? Dick is pretty clueless and the camera did not show us anything to show a mistake. Perhaps someone else saw something to indicate what happened but it was a big out and tough for Kirilloff to lose a base hit too.

[rwilfong86]

16 minutes ago, davidborton said:

Are stats piling up in the data dept for other clubs and pitches/weak spots ID'd?

It looks like other teams are learning how to pitch him, now it is up to him to make adjustments and not try to hit homeruns every time when any contact would be useful. 

[rwilfong86]

30 minutes ago, SwainZag said:

Unfortunately that has always been Wallner's issue.  Expecting anything below a 30% K rate probably isn't going to happen.

Yep, I remember his scouting report said he was a high K guy, unfortunately he needs to work on making contact in key moments and not try to crush the ball every single time. 

[jimbo92107]

Frustration is the diagnosis. Pressure is the answer. 

Pro hitters like to talk about "process," rather than isolated instances of success or failure. They spend years refining their processes, which consist of purifying their swings, analyzing game situations, reading subtle physical signs that pitchers  and other players give off, etc. The result of all that work isn't a guarantee of getting a hit at any particular time, but it is supposed to make hits more likely.

That is where pressure comes in. If a hitter is doing all the stuff he has been practicing, then the pitcher should face maximum pressure from each of that player's at bats. If that is not happening, the first thing to look at is if each batter appears to be applying as much pressure as possible, in the form of plate discipline, situation analysis, swing mechanics, etc. 

Even acknowledging how hard it is to hit a baseball thrown by a major league pitcher, it is hard for me to believe that the entire Twins lineup was applying as much pressure as they could. 

[Steven Trefz]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

I was in my car in the middle innings when Castro was on second, Julien on first with one out when Kirilloff hit a ball the fell in front of the left fielder, but Julien was forced out. Was that a mistake by Julien or just one of those things. If Julien gets to second, it is bases loaded with one out. 

I viewed it as a mistake.  The fielder dove, and he would have plenty of time if he even went halfway.  

[Woof Bronzer]

2 hours ago, BH67 said:

Starting pitching for the Twins in the playoffs will provide a huge advantage against teams of similar skill.

Looks like we're in line to play Toronto or Seattle.  I'm not sure we'll have a starting pitching advantage against either team, much less a "huge" one.

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Did Gladden or Provus comment on it? Dick is pretty clueless and the camera did not show us anything to show a mistake. Perhaps someone else saw something to indicate what happened but it was a big out and tough for Kirilloff to lose a base hit too.

Provus said he misread it. Could have been big with Lewis coming up with the sacks juiced. 

[Schmoeman5]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

I was in my car in the middle innings when Castro was on second, Julien on first with one out when Kirilloff hit a ball the fell in front of the left fielder, but Julien was forced out. Was that a mistake by Julien or just one of those things. If Julien gets to second, it is bases loaded with one out. 

I want to say it was on Julien. The play was right in front of him. I mean if Castro was able to reach 3rd Julien should have been able to make 2nd before the force out. Kind of a tough call. The umpire did signal no catch. But I guess you could say damned if you do, damned if you don't.  And you're right. There really wasn't much comment on that play. 

[Fatbat]

The score should have been 5 or 6 to zero entering the 9th. So many lost opportunities.

[Blyleven2011]

Great pitching from Lopez  , the loss hurts cause this was a winnable game ....

If this was a playoff game and  we lost 2-0  , I'd take it  if the twins had better results at the plate  , 9 strikeouts  , 6 walks but 4 hits  , now if they had possibly had 8 hits with 6 walks maybe  we could have scored or not but it would have been  a better game , got to take advantage of opportunities  ...

I've said this a zillion times  ,,, if Jax is on his game he pitches less than 15 pitches in the inning and gets 3 outs  , you will know within the 3 batters  , Jax pitched to 6 batters  and threw 24 pitches ,,, 

Why Rocco  ? , why ??? ...

This has happened  quite a few times this year where Rocco leaves Jax in the whole inning , he only needs to pitch to 3 batters , I like captn Jax  but get him out of there when you know he's not on his game ,,, not all was his fault today though , wallner  gifted a hit , Jax hit a batter and the rest is history  

[LastOnePicked]

Twins, last week I know I urged you to "just win every series," but I hope it was clear that I would have also been okay with the occasional sweep, too. Apologies for the confusion, and thanks for taking my earlier request seriously.

[Linus]

Hmmm.   Solano plays second over Julien. 

[tony&rodney]

4 minutes ago, Linus said:

Hmmm.   Solano plays second over Julien. 

Noted. Interesting to an extent.

[jorgenswest]

In defense of Jax he got Lindor to pop up with an expected batting average of .070. Instead of an out it was ruled a double. A left fielder with any kind of range makes that play. Later Stewart fights through a 9 pitch at bat. Credit to Stewart for the at bat but I also think Jax can pitch a little differently if Lindor isn’t standing on third with one out instead of two.

The run expectancy of a runner on second with no outs vs bases empty and one out is very different. If the Twins make that play I don’t think the Mets score.

[Dave Borton]

3 hours ago, rwilfong86 said:

...unfortunately he needs to work on making contact in key moments and not try to crush the ball every single time. 

Az Fall League or is he too high to get sent?

[stringer bell]

On the Lindor double, did anyone see what kind of read and jump that Wallner got on the ball?

Jax was the victim of a soft contact extra base hit, then back-footed the next hitter on 0-2. He lost the battle to Stewart after making a bunch of good pitches. That’s just the way it goes sometimes. 

[stringer bell]

8 minutes ago, davidborton said:

Az Fall League or is he too high to get sent?

Big league players don’t go to the AFL.
 

I think part of the problem for both Wallner and Julien might be fatigue. It was noted that Miranda struggled in September of his rookie year. These guys aren’t used to playing after Labor Day especially facing major league pitching every day. Neither has been on the IL all year, so I’m sure this is their longest professional season. 

[Dave Borton]

Even from way up in section 319, I could tell how tall Lopez is.

Bud remarked how "stork-like" the delivery is with a very deep delivery point. You could tell that from the landing point on the mound. I said, looks like he has ball bearings in his joints.

From up top, looked like he was working the upper zone a great deal. Looked just a bit tired in the 8th inn but radar gun said I was wrong.

Reported crowd of 22,000. And I am the pope. All the season tix holders were at US Bank. I put the crowd, BISs, at about 13,000. Noisy crowd -- great. Very responsive to Lopez. The standing O at end of 8th (believe he was at 100 pitches) was very spontaneous and he professionally acknowledged the cheers.

The whole scoreboard arrangement, the ads, the "visual litter" all over the place makes it hard to focus on pitch count, outs, pitch speed, type of pitch, etc. I just find it visually noisy.

The incessant noise is overdone. I admit to being my 8th decade. But when my bud and I can't converse about the game, it is annoying as heck. And don't even get me started on "let's make some noise." The applause and ovation for Lopez were ball fans reacting quite naturally to superb performance. Isn't that sufficient.

And the throwing of rubber dice over the balcony for what, a T-shirt. Come on. Professionalize it.

Lines were short. 

The ushers and staff were once again some of the most cordial, inviting, and professional sports venue staff I have experienced. Hats off to the team you have built in customer service.

[TwinsDr2021]

8 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Big league players don’t go to the AFL.
 

I think part of the problem for both Wallner and Julien might be fatigue. It was noted that Miranda struggled in September of his rookie year. These guys aren’t used to playing after Labor Day especially facing major league pitching every day. Neither has been on the IL all year, so I’m sure this is their longest professional season. 

Fatigue? 24 and 25 year old men that have played 126-129 games? and lets be honest this downward trend didn't just happening in the last week or two it started the beginning of August.

Miranda's OPS was .743 in September last year and for the year was .751, his September was actually better than August. So I don't think he is a good comparison for these two. I still have high hopes for Julien and not so much for Wallner, but if the Twins keep Polanco, Julien could find himself without a spot. As for Wallner my take hasn't changed they need to bring in a starting left fielder, because I believe they will keep Kepler.

[jmlease1]

To be fair to Bremer on the Kepler deep fly...Kepler clearly thought it was out off the bat and so did I. Dick's had more of these these year than usual, but the Twins have also had a LOT of towering flies that have died at the wall, on the track, and at the edge of the track this season.

Lopez was really great, that was fun to watch. I'm really happy with his season, and he sure looks the part of a #1 starter.

Bats just couldn't get it going. They did a good job grinding out some walks, but just couldn't find the hits.

[Ricky Vaughn]

10 hours ago, davidborton said:

The whole scoreboard arrangement, the ads, the "visual litter" all over the place makes it hard to focus on pitch count, outs, pitch speed, type of pitch, etc. I just find it visually noisy.

 

Couldn't agree more. Info is moved all over the place constantly. By the time you find what your looking for the at bat is over. I also agree about the noise, you have to pick your spots to have any kind of conversation. Maybe their just trying to get people to look up from their phones.

This was our first game this year so you can blame me for the loss if you want. Pablo looked great but the hitting uninspired. Seems to happen every time their in position for a sweep.