Twins 8, Phillies 1: Script Flipped: Pablo López Dominates; Joey Gallo Carries the Offense

[Hans Birkeland]

Trying to end a four-game skid on the road against one of baseball's hottest teams, the Twins played one of their best games of the season. Joey Gallo hit two home runs and wasn't retired on the night. Pablo López had perhaps his best start of the year, going six scoreless against a tough Phillies lineup.

Image courtesy of Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports

Coming off of a loss that is certainly in the running for worst loss of the year (the second game against the Mariners at Target Field is my choice), the Twins needed to bring a lot more energy to stop their losing streak and establish some positive momentum at the end of a difficult road trip. The Guardians did their part, blowing a 5-3 lead in the ninth inning against Tampa Bay to extend their run of futility, and giving the Twins a chance to retake a 4.5 game lead in the AL Central. The Twins delivered, and then some.

Box Score
Starting pitcher: Pablo López: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K (92 Pitches, 60 Strikes, 65.2%)
Home Runs: Matt Wallner (8), Joey Gallo 2 (20), Carlos Correa (15)
Top 3 WPA: López (.329), Gallo (.152) Correa (.083)
Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):

Things started out promising. Facing a solid but unspectacular right-handed pitcher in Taijuan Walker, the night began with walks to Edouard Julien and Jorge Polanco. After Carlos Correa hit a grounder soft enough to avoid a double play and advance the runners, Max Kepler hit a grounder up the middle to score Julien. Ryan Jeffers also drew a walk before Matt Wallner lined out sharply to Jake Cave in center. The Twins put runners on base in the second and third innings, as well, but came up empty even as Walker's control wavered.

Pablo López also started out positively, getting dominating strikeouts against Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper sandwiched around a liner from Alec Bohm that struck López on the inner thigh. López was fortunate to avoid injury and didn't appear any worse for the wear.

After drawing five walks against Walker in the first three innings, the Twins decided to do some actual damage in the fourth, starting with an impressive homer off the bat of Wallner. He stayed back on a curveball on the outside edge of the plate and hammered it 108 MPH, a homer in all 30 parks.

Wallner's ability to adjust to a pitch he may have been fooled by caused me to outwardly exclaim that he is fundamentally a different hitter than Joey Gallo, someone I was worried would represent Wallner's ceiling. Wallner is still no sure-thing, but being able to adjust mid-pitch and crush a breaking ball is something Gallo rarely does.

On queue, Gallo took a splitter from Walker and bashed it the other way, just over the fence in left field. Is it possible that Gallo is making an adjustment to let the ball travel a bit more? Testing the theory, he later managed to line a 1-2 slider of the right field wall facing lefty Matt Strahm in the sixth. Finally, he broke the game open with a three-run homer in the seventh. He added a two-strike single in the ninth. If nothing else, he at least is giving himself a chance in deeper counts, and that's a nice development.

Meanwhile, López cruised through the fourth inning, racking up strikeouts and spotting his sweeper and change-up where he wanted. He got away with a few fastballs in the middle of the plate, but Phillies' hitters were late on it, perhaps with offspeed on their minds.

Things got hairier in the fifth inning, López allowed a sharp single to the red-hot Trea Turner before striking our JT Realmuto on a 3-2 fastball way outside the zone. With López's sweeper seemingly not cooperating, Cave then looped one to right field for a single before Rodolfo Castro got the barrel on a 2-1 change-up and lined out to Kepler. That brought up reigning NL home run champ Kyle Schwarber, capable of tying the game at three with one swing, but López got the Phillies' leadoff hitter to pop out to end the threat, preserving the 3-0 advantage.

The Phillies put up a potential rally in the sixth, as well. Bryce Harper ripped a one-out double before Nick Castellanos roped a line drive to the left-center gap. Somehow, Michael A. Taylor caught up to the hooking liner, making an excellent diving catch to quell the uprising. Bryson Stott grounded out to end the inning, giving López six shutout innings when the Twins really needed them.

Correa then added some insurance off tough lefty Gregory Soto, hitting a 1-1 slider out to left field to extend the lead to 4-0, but the Twins weren't done. Kepler followed with a booming double off Soto and scored on a single from Wallner. Gallo then added his second home run, a three-run shot that put the game out of reach. The add-on runs are a welcome sight.

The good:
Kepler stroking a 99 MPH fastball from a lefty off the wall in right-center after battling back from an 0-2 count;

Whatever strides Gallo is making; his OPS (.770) and batting average (.185) are now higher than Schwarber's, who somehow continues to hit leadoff for a playoff team.

López has managed to string together a few great starts, and has his ERA down to 3.66. He has to be the front-runner to start game one of a playoff series.

The bad:
Julien looks like he has lost his timing a little. He still is only swinging at strikes, but is also swinging and missing a lot. He also has not yet had an extra-base hit in August.

Correa looked a little slow rounding the bases on his home run, and was removed for Farmer in the seventh. The team was up 8-0 at that point, so it may have been just a precautionary move.

What’s Next: Sonny Gray (5-5, 3.18 ERA) faces lefty Ranger Suarez (2-5, 3.96 ERA) as the Twins try for a series victory in Philadelphia. Suarez has been solid for the Phillies since coming up in 2021, but never dominant, and his baseball savant page is hardly impressive. However, he is a lefty.

Postgame Interviews:

 

 

Bullpen Usage Chart:

	TUE	WED	THU	FRI	SAT	TOT
Winder	42	0	0	43	0	85
Balazovic	0	39	0	0	18	57
Sands	28	0	0	0	0	28
Floro	0	0	28	0	0	28
Durán	0	0	18	0	0	18
Jax	0	0	0	0	15	15
Thielbar	0	0	0	0	15	15
Pagán	0	14	0	0	0	14

 

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[USAFChief]

Really fantastic game write-up. Mr Birkeland. Kudos.

 

[jkcarew]

Pablo Cruised.

2-11 RiSP. But really good starting pitching and HR’s cure all ills.

[Hashim]

Great Team effort. Good pitching is always an antidote to teams woes. Lopez is fast becoming our bonafide ace. Long it may continue. 

[USAFChief]

Just a little reminder that some "advanced stats" aren't necessarily actually advanced:

Joey Gallo's blast to right, 400 plus feet on a line into the second deck in right, had an expected batting average of .750.

Somehow, whoever came up with that measurement thinks that's an out one fourth of the time.

I nonconcur with that estimation, good sir. In fact, I strongly nonconcur.

[ashbury]

With this monster game, I believe* Joey Gallo now leads the Twins in OPS. 

OPS, that is, for situations where his team is already in the lead.

When the Twins are behind, his OPS of .574 is ahead of only Nick Gordon and (in very small sample) Jordan Luplow.

In tie games, his OPS is an uninspiring .634.

Don't get me wrong, because I like insurance runs.  Every additional run has the probability of moving the team closer to a win.  Also, it's not his "fault" that in tonight's game someone else pushed across the first run and the team never trailed.

But I don't believe I've ever seen an aggregate OPS near .800 that was more misleading.  And the seasonal trend has intensified.  Perhaps it's is just a statistical blip, and not predictive of future performance.  But I'm not so much interested in forecasting, as in looking back at the season so far and trying to understand the disappointment in the face of seemingly positive batting stats.

*   I haven't done the math and will wait to see the new totals when sites update tomorrow.

/ confirmed - his OPS when the team's ahead is now 1.041, passing Julien who dropped to .923 with last night's o-fer.

[BH67]

I expected a lot of Gallo's humor here.

[Jocko87]

22 minutes ago, ashbury said:

With this monster game, I believe* Joey Gallo now leads the Twins in OPS. 

OPS, that is, for situations where his team is already in the lead.

When the Twins are behind, his OPS is ahead of only Nick Gordon and (in very small sample) Jordan Luplow.

In tie games, his OPS is an uninspiring .634.

Don't get me wrong, because I like insurance runs.  Every additional run has the probability of moving the team closer to a win.  Also, it's not his "fault" that in tonight's game someone else pushed across the first run and the team never trailed.

But I don't believe I've ever seen an aggregate OPS near .800 that was more misleading.  And the seasonal trend has intensified.  Perhaps it's is just a statistical blip, and not predictive of future performance.  But I'm not so much interested in forecasting, as in looking back at the season so far and trying to understand the disappointment in the face of seemingly positive batting stats.

*   I haven't done the math and will wait to see the new totals when sites update tomorrow.

A reminder that contracts and especially arbitrations are largely decided on the aggregate and by the end of this Gallo cycle the FO might look pretty good. Schwarber got 79m, Gallo might still get in QO range. Gallo is accumulating some money stats and can catch too.

[Jocko87]

30 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Just a little reminder that "advanced stats" aren't necessarily actually advanced:

Joey Gallo's blast to right, 400 plus feet on a line into the second deck in right, had an expected batting average of .750.

Somehow, whoever came up with that measurement thinks that's an out one fourth of the time.

I nonconcur with that estimation, good sir. In fact, I strongly nonconcur.

It also returned a 30 for 30 home run estimation. 108.2, 412ft and 38 degrees is caught 25% of the time in a bizarro galaxy. Those two facts don't add up.

I've said it a million times. The teams that can process the data properly will be successful. Any team that takes the data as presented will fail. As in business, success is found in others mistakes.

I firmly believe no major league team is using the public statcast data as presented to us rubes. They would be fools to.

[VivaBomboRivera!]

23 minutes ago, BH67 said:

I expected a lot of Gallo's humor here.

Where's the darn "Bronx Cheer" button?

[darwin22]

50 minutes ago, Hashim said:

Great Team effort. Good pitching is always an antidote to teams woes. Lopez is fast becoming our bonafide ace. Long it may continue. 

Since his awful start in OAK after the ASB (7 ER in 5.2 IP), Lopez over his last 5 starts has been flat out outstanding as evidenced by the following numbers:

W-L  3-1*---should've got another W from 7-25 start when bullpen (Moran) gagged away a 6-2 lead

IP:  31

ER allowed:  5

ERA:  1.45

WHIP:  0.935

K:  35

BB:  4

If Twins have any hope to be playing into October, Lopez MUST be the staff ACE over his last 8-9 starts.  Will be hard to continue to put up these numbers the remainder of the year, but he can do A LOT to quell the ongoing critics that continue to lament the loss of Arraez.

[DocBauer]

I just love Lopez and I'm glad we have him. He's really had an excellent season in evry single way except one: he's had a few games that I tongue-in-cheek refer to as "Radke Disease". As great as Radke was, as wonderful a career as he had...still somewhat undervalued to this day, IMO...he had some stretches where bad luck or bad control lead to a bad inning in otherwise excellent performances. Stuff happens.

Despite his BA and OB%, I think Taylor has been a tremendous acquisition by the Twins and has performed very well to help this team, despite being pressed in to full time duty, which was never the original plan. His defense remains excellent. He's provided some power...occasionally in big moments...speed, and even some key bunts. I think he's been just fine as a #9 hitter with outstanding defense.

I'm becoming more and more impressed with Wallner the more I watch him.

It's nothing personal, but Gallo isn't part of the future, and I maintain he should have already been gone to give someone else a shot who might actually produce better, and might BE part of the future. But I root for every player who wears a Twins uniform. So despite all his struggles, a tip of the proverbial cap for a great night.

I liked the comment from Lopez in the post game about the beat down the night before. He succinctly stated it was just one game. And he's 100% correct! It was one horrific night, on the road, against a quality team. But it's the sweep in KC and the recent losses in Detroit on this trip that stick in my craw. Wasted opportunity!

They have a chance to take the series Sunday and return home on a positive note. But they face a mediocre LH Sunday and not to be a downer after a really, really good win, but I'm just not expecting the W. I hope we're all pleasantly surprised.

[mrtwinsfan]

Gallo and Harper in little league,    could it be his last 4 hit day, -  kidding, he had one in

[IndyTwinsFan]

1 hour ago, DocBauer said:

I just love Lopez and I'm glad we have him. He's really had an excellent season in evry single way except one: he's had a few games that I tongue-in-cheek refer to as "Radke Disease". As great as Radke was, as wonderful a career as he had...still somewhat undervalued to this day, IMO...he had some stretches where bad luck or bad control lead to a bad inning in otherwise excellent performances. Stuff happens.

Despite his BA and OB%, I think Taylor has been a tremendous acquisition by the Twins and has performed very well to help this team, despite being pressed in to full time duty, which was never the original plan. His defense remains excellent. He's provided some power...occasionally in big moments...speed, and even some key bunts. I think he's been just fine as a #9 hitter with outstanding defense.

I'm becoming more and more impressed with Wallner the more I watch him.

It's nothing personal, but Gallo isn't part of the future, and I maintain he should have already been gone to give someone else a shot who might actually produce better, and might BE part of the future. But I root for every player who wears a Twins uniform. So despite all his struggles, a tip of the proverbial cap for a great night.

I liked the comment from Lopez in the post game about the beat down the night before. He succinctly stated it was just one game. And he's 100% correct! It was one horrific night, on the road, against a quality team. But it's the sweep in KC and the recent losses in Detroit on this trip that stick in my craw. Wasted opportunity!

They have a chance to take the series Sunday and return home on a positive note. But they face a mediocre LH Sunday and not to be a downer after a really, really good win, but I'm just not expecting the W. I hope we're all pleasantly surprised.

Nicely put, Doc!

[Vanimal46]

10 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

Schwarber got 79m, Gallo might still get in QO range. Gallo is accumulating some money stats and can catch too.

Not a chance this happens. I’m glad he had a good day yesterday. Let’s not start talking crazy here. 

[jmlease1]

Lopez was excellent. He did a great job mowing through the Phillies lineup and it's a good one overall. His pitch mix is just so tough to contend with; he's got options to go to if one of his pitches isn't landing or he's struggling a little with his command. He's been good and healthy all season and I'm thrilled to have him locked up for the long-term.

Gallo...great game. But it doesn't erase the trash-fire he's been for the last 6 weeks, or the fact that he wasn't particularly good in May or June either. I still think he needs to be the guy to go when Buxton and Kirilloff and Lewis and Solano (yikes, that's a list) are back off the injured list, because Julien and Wallner simply can't be sent down, Castro has earned his spot, Solano has been more consistent, we need Farmer as the backup at SS, and there's just no other option. Sorry, Joey. It's a harsh business sometimes.

This is a strange Twins team: every time they get on a roll, they trip on a rock. every time they look like they might go in the tank, they right the ship. 

Let's go get the series in on the road today.

[Blyleven2011]

GALLO  , game ball , unbelievable  .... 

Team effort , Taylor's defense is very good ....

[JD-TWINS]

11 hours ago, ashbury said:

With this monster game, I believe* Joey Gallo now leads the Twins in OPS. 

OPS, that is, for situations where his team is already in the lead.

When the Twins are behind, his OPS is ahead of only Nick Gordon and (in very small sample) Jordan Luplow.

In tie games, his OPS is an uninspiring .634.

Don't get me wrong, because I like insurance runs.  Every additional run has the probability of moving the team closer to a win.  Also, it's not his "fault" that in tonight's game someone else pushed across the first run and the team never trailed.

But I don't believe I've ever seen an aggregate OPS near .800 that was more misleading.  And the seasonal trend has intensified.  Perhaps it's is just a statistical blip, and not predictive of future performance.  But I'm not so much interested in forecasting, as in looking back at the season so far and trying to understand the disappointment in the face of seemingly positive batting stats.

*   I haven't done the math and will wait to see the new totals when sites update tomorrow.

He puts the ball in play 35-40% of his PA’s …….less than half of those are hits. The fact that he has more HR than singles is tough to fathom. His stats don’t fall in line with a normal, productive .770OPS hitter.

[VivaBomboRivera!]

59 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

The fact that he has more HR than singles is tough to fathom.

His "single" was nearly a home run.  Couldn't be a double because it reached the wall so fast and bounced back to the fielder.

[USAFChief]

1 minute ago, VivaBomboRivera! said:

His "single" was nearly a home run.  Couldn't be a double because it reached the wall so fast and bounced back to the fielder.

Pretty sure the poster you quoted meant season totals. 

So far this year, Gallo has 20 HRs and 17 singles.

[chinmusic]

12 hours ago, VivaBomboRivera! said:

Where's the darn "Bronx Cheer" button?

Good line. Well, at least Gallo's game yesterday, and it was a very good one, allows me to dream that he may stay hot today, and be named AL player of the weekend. Wait a minute, Suarez is a southpaw. Are you up to the challenge, Joey?

[VivaBomboRivera!]

21 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Pretty sure the poster you quoted meant season totals. 

So far this year, Gallo has 20 HRs and 17 singles.

Yes. Yesterday's "single" illustrates why. The guy mashes every ball he connects with. All or nothing.

[USAFChief]

2 minutes ago, VivaBomboRivera! said:

Yes. Yesterday's "single" illustrates why. The guy mashes every ball he connects with. All or nothing.

Eh, I think it mostly illustrates how seldom he puts the ball in play.

[Jocko87]

3 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Not a chance this happens. I’m glad he had a good day yesterday. Let’s not start talking crazy here. 

I'm not one prone to hyperbole and not reacting to one game. The Schwarber comp is a good one.  He hits leadoff for a legit contender and can't catch a cold.

[USAFChief]

4 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

I'm not one prone to hyperbole and not reacting to one game. The Schwarber comp is a good one.  He hits leadoff for a legit contender and can't catch a cold.

The year before signing that contract Schwarber had 477 PAs of .266/.374/.554

[Vanimal46]

6 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

I'm not one prone to hyperbole and not reacting to one game. The Schwarber comp is a good one.  He hits leadoff for a legit contender and can't catch a cold.

Joey Gallo is closer to never playing in the majors again vs. making $20 million. 

[Jocko87]

12 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

The year before signing that contract Schwarber had 477 PAs of .266/.374/.554

And couldn’t break 3 WAR.  I also don’t need him to sign that same contract. It won’t be the money that stops it.

[Hashim]

14 hours ago, darwin22 said:

Since his awful start in OAK after the ASB (7 ER in 5.2 IP), Lopez over his last 5 starts has been flat out outstanding as evidenced by the following numbers:

W-L  3-1*---should've got another W from 7-25 start when bullpen (Moran) gagged away a 6-2 lead

IP:  31

ER allowed:  5

ERA:  1.45

WHIP:  0.935

K:  35

BB:  4

If Twins have any hope to be playing into October, Lopez MUST be the staff ACE over his last 8-9 starts.  Will be hard to continue to put up these numbers the remainder of the year, but he can do A LOT to quell the ongoing critics that continue to lament the loss of Arraez.

Yes brother. We’ve waited for an ace for a long time. Hopefully Ryan can figure it out and Ober bounces back.