Twins 8, Phillies 1: Script Flipped: Pablo López Dominates; Joey Gallo Carries the Offense

With this monster game, I believe* Joey Gallo now leads the Twins in OPS. 

OPS, that is, for situations where his team is already in the lead.

When the Twins are behind, his OPS of .574 is ahead of only Nick Gordon and (in very small sample) Jordan Luplow.

In tie games, his OPS is an uninspiring .634.

Don't get me wrong, because I like insurance runs.  Every additional run has the probability of moving the team closer to a win.  Also, it's not his "fault" that in tonight's game someone else pushed across the first run and the team never trailed.

But I don't believe I've ever seen an aggregate OPS near .800 that was more misleading.  And the seasonal trend has intensified.  Perhaps it's is just a statistical blip, and not predictive of future performance.  But I'm not so much interested in forecasting, as in looking back at the season so far and trying to understand the disappointment in the face of seemingly positive batting stats.

*   I haven't done the math and will wait to see the new totals when sites update tomorrow.

/ confirmed - his OPS when the team's ahead is now 1.041, passing Julien who dropped to .923 with last night's o-fer.

22 minutes ago, ashbury said:

With this monster game, I believe* Joey Gallo now leads the Twins in OPS. 

OPS, that is, for situations where his team is already in the lead.

When the Twins are behind, his OPS is ahead of only Nick Gordon and (in very small sample) Jordan Luplow.

In tie games, his OPS is an uninspiring .634.

Don't get me wrong, because I like insurance runs.  Every additional run has the probability of moving the team closer to a win.  Also, it's not his "fault" that in tonight's game someone else pushed across the first run and the team never trailed.

But I don't believe I've ever seen an aggregate OPS near .800 that was more misleading.  And the seasonal trend has intensified.  Perhaps it's is just a statistical blip, and not predictive of future performance.  But I'm not so much interested in forecasting, as in looking back at the season so far and trying to understand the disappointment in the face of seemingly positive batting stats.

*   I haven't done the math and will wait to see the new totals when sites update tomorrow.

A reminder that contracts and especially arbitrations are largely decided on the aggregate and by the end of this Gallo cycle the FO might look pretty good. Schwarber got 79m, Gallo might still get in QO range. Gallo is accumulating some money stats and can catch too.

30 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Just a little reminder that "advanced stats" aren't necessarily actually advanced:

Joey Gallo's blast to right, 400 plus feet on a line into the second deck in right, had an expected batting average of .750.

Somehow, whoever came up with that measurement thinks that's an out one fourth of the time.

I nonconcur with that estimation, good sir. In fact, I strongly nonconcur.

It also returned a 30 for 30 home run estimation. 108.2, 412ft and 38 degrees is caught 25% of the time in a bizarro galaxy. Those two facts don't add up.

I've said it a million times. The teams that can process the data properly will be successful. Any team that takes the data as presented will fail. As in business, success is found in others mistakes.

I firmly believe no major league team is using the public statcast data as presented to us rubes. They would be fools to.

1 hour ago, DocBauer said:

I just love Lopez and I'm glad we have him. He's really had an excellent season in evry single way except one: he's had a few games that I tongue-in-cheek refer to as "Radke Disease". As great as Radke was, as wonderful a career as he had...still somewhat undervalued to this day, IMO...he had some stretches where bad luck or bad control lead to a bad inning in otherwise excellent performances. Stuff happens.

Despite his BA and OB%, I think Taylor has been a tremendous acquisition by the Twins and has performed very well to help this team, despite being pressed in to full time duty, which was never the original plan. His defense remains excellent. He's provided some power...occasionally in big moments...speed, and even some key bunts. I think he's been just fine as a #9 hitter with outstanding defense.

I'm becoming more and more impressed with Wallner the more I watch him.

It's nothing personal, but Gallo isn't part of the future, and I maintain he should have already been gone to give someone else a shot who might actually produce better, and might BE part of the future. But I root for every player who wears a Twins uniform. So despite all his struggles, a tip of the proverbial cap for a great night.

I liked the comment from Lopez in the post game about the beat down the night before. He succinctly stated it was just one game. And he's 100% correct! It was one horrific night, on the road, against a quality team. But it's the sweep in KC and the recent losses in Detroit on this trip that stick in my craw. Wasted opportunity!

They have a chance to take the series Sunday and return home on a positive note. But they face a mediocre LH Sunday and not to be a downer after a really, really good win, but I'm just not expecting the W. I hope we're all pleasantly surprised.

Nicely put, Doc!

3 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Not a chance this happens. I’m glad he had a good day yesterday. Let’s not start talking crazy here. 

I'm not one prone to hyperbole and not reacting to one game. The Schwarber comp is a good one.  He hits leadoff for a legit contender and can't catch a cold.

12 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

The year before signing that contract Schwarber had 477 PAs of .266/.374/.554

And couldn’t break 3 WAR.  I also don’t need him to sign that same contract. It won’t be the money that stops it.