Did Taylor and Castro Save the 2023 Twins?

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins acquired both Willi Castro and Michael A. Taylor this offseason. Neither were expected to be impact performers, but now barreling down the stretch towards the postseason, it appears both have been catalysts for a roster that has severely needed them.

 

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Kicking off the season, Rocco Baldelli was immediately without Jorge Polanco and Alex Kirilloff. Despite reports of them both initially being set for Opening Day, neither were on the roster. Then there was the reality that Byron Buxton wouldn't be an option in center field for a while, and the need for depth became even more imperative.

Fast forward to the beginning of August, and Michael A. Taylor has contributed the sixth-highest fWAR for Minnesota among position players. His 1.1 fWAR mark trumps both stars, Carlos Correa and Buxton, while he has played 100 of the Twins' 113 games in center field. Buxton's failure to launch has put incredible pressure on Taylor, but he has been everything the organization has needed so far.

There was hardly an expectation that Taylor would suddenly become an offensive stalwart. That has never been his game, but the Gold Glove-caliber defense has been as good as advertised. With no Buxton behind him, the rotation could have been better, with Nick Gordon, Joey Gallo, and even Willi Castro filling in.

Offensively, Taylor has also done more than enough to carry his weight. His 90 OPS+, while below the Major League average, is above his career 82 OPS+ tally. He's never been much of an on-base guy, and the strikeouts are there in bunches with few walks. His 13 doubles are the most since 2021, and he should surpass that total with an eye on his 2017 career best. He has also never hit more than 19 home runs in a single season, launching just nine last year, but has already posted 15 in 102 games.

Like Taylor, Willi Castro has filled gaps unlike anyone could have predicted. Seemingly behind Gordon as a utility player, Castro's fit seemed odd as a Detroit Tigers castoff. Early in the year, there appeared to be multiple situations in which his remaining option could place him on the chopping block, but all he has done is continue to produce.

Castro's 96 OPS+ is his best career mark throughout an entire season. Like Taylor, Castro isn't expected to be an offensive juggernaut, but everything else he brings to the table makes him so valuable. Those things have equated to a 1.6 fWAR, trailing only Edouard Julien and Ryan Jeffers for Minnesota.

The only positions Castro has not played this year are first base and catcher. He has logged multiple innings everywhere else and has taken strides as a replacement centerfielder. Castro's bat is not loud in that significant power contact isn't his game. Still, he's taken plenty of walks and has primarily controlled the zone. He could be in for a career year in both doubles and home runs if things continue to trend positively.

Where Castro may have made the most difference is on the basepaths. Castro has led the charge for a Twins team that virtually ignored running multiple weeks into the season despite the new rule changes promoting it. Having never previously stolen more than nine bases in a single season, Castro owns 28 stolen bases this year and has been thrown out only four times. For Hank Conger, who is often watching Castro break from first, it has to be refreshing seeing a player put pressure on the opposing pitcher.

When Derek Falvey and Thad Levine grabbed both Taylor and Castro, they likely had visions of talented players rounding out the fringes of the big league rosters. Thanks to injury and ineffectiveness, each has been pushed into a much more substantial role, and it's hard to scoff at either production.

Minnesota being without a healthy or competent Buxton would always hurt. Needing a utility man ready every day can be a bit much. For the Twins, though, both Taylor and Castro have gone above and beyond expectations to play a part in a successful season that could have gone very differently.

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[terrydactyls]

Exactly!  Not too much was expected when they were signed but both are performing above expectations.

[DJL44]

Farmer and Solano have also been good depth pickups.

[Patzky]

I'd hate to imagine where the team would be without the so called supporting staff. 

[Karbo]

If the Twins make the playoffs a major reason why is the backup and utility players. I don't think they're in 1st without them.

[Brandon]

It’s cheaper to have a strong bench than it is to sign everyday players.  We usually have a good bench because of this.  Compare our bench to other teams and you will see we have a top 3 bench in the league if not the best.  
 

We would probably have a better pen if the Twins would sign some 3-6 million per season players like we do on our bench instead of only dumpster diving.  

[old nurse]

For the what ifs maybe a full season of Wallner and Bechtold and Williams getting a chance the Twins wouldn’t be running away with the division. Castro and Taylor have been fine role players but saving a season is hyperbole.

[DJL44]

12 minutes ago, old nurse said:

For the what ifs maybe a full season of Wallner and Bechtold and Williams getting a chance the Twins wouldn’t be running away with the division. Castro and Taylor have been fine role players but saving a season is hyperbole.

Bechtold has a 9.39 ERA and 3 times as many walks as strikeouts in AAA. He's clearly not ready to contribute to a major league team.

[mikelink45]

I totally agree and have really hated to read so many negative statements about both.  There is more to baseball than OPS+

[HokieRif]

Its guys like these two that put a team in serious contention for the playoffs when supplementing the team's stars - they stay relatively healthy and are consistent in their performance.  In the case of this year's team - they are part of the core reason why we're still in the hunt.  If three players - Correa, Buxton, and Gallo (throw-in Kepler's first-half performance if you want, too)- had played up to their potential, we would be in a significantly different position than we are right now.  I think I counted 27 losses this year where we lost by 1-2 runs.  Assuming those players played to their potential I'm easily willing to bet half of those loses (lets round down to 13) become wins, and we're looking at a record of 73-43 today... which would be the best record in baseball.

[Brandon]

34 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Bechtold has a 9.39 ERA and 3 times as many walks as strikeouts in AAA. He's clearly not ready to contribute to a major league team.

I thought he was a 3B

[Doctor Gast]

Agree with you all along, I've said that the bench of Castro, Taylor, Farmer, Solano & have saved our butts especially in the beginning because the main guys weren't getting it done. OPS isn't the tell all as far the value of a player. It's defense, base running, getting on base & not striking out and clutch hitting which are often overlooked that IMO is more important & these guys are doing the little things which helps us win games. 

[KBJ1]

Yes! I have been saying this all year.

We would be well under 500 without Solono, Castro, Farmer & Taylor.

If the starting 9 had been healthy AND performing as expected we would be serious contenders. But injuries, a poor approach at the plate and bullpen injuries have kept us stuck in neutral and 500 most of the season.

If Correa, Lewis, Kiriloff, Polanco, Wallner, Kepler, Julien heat up (notice I didn't say Buxton, if he can't play CF, he's done) they have a chance to make a run.

The starting pitching is there, but the bullpen injuries along with Alcala, Moran & no one else stepping up will still be their Achilles heel. Maybe Ryan goes to the pen and "saves" the day? Stewart miraculously comes back?

There are a lot of ifs, but the pieces are there!

[KirbyDome89]

Starting pitching and some of the young position players are the reason this team hasn't cratered. 

Castro has been a solid utility guy. That isn't saving a season. 

Taylor is hitting .216 with an atrocious .265 OBP, a 34% K rate, and a career low 5.3% BB rate. He has an 86 OPS+ (not 90) and he has posted 1.2 WAR 116 games into the season as the everyday CF'er.

C'mon...

[Five minute major]

What exactly are the saving.  We are barely in first place in the worst division in baseball.  Would have preferred to See Steer and CES in the lineup as well as Wallner called up way sooner.  We should not have needed to sign all of these guys to start with (Farmer, Solana, Castro and Taylor).   I can understand Taylor to play CF and he is done a fine job.  But saving the season is a bit much.   This FO needs to be dismissed.

[dogsday]

Hmm...headline begins with the premise that the 2023 Twins have been saved. Still seems very much in the balance, whatever the merits of the players (Castro and Taylor) themselves.

[USAFChief]

17 minutes ago, dogsday said:

Hmm...headline begins with the premise that the 2023 Twins have been saved. Still seems very much in the balance, whatever the merits of the players (Castro and Taylor) themselves.

Indeed.

[jmlease1]

well, this is why one of the easiest ways to improve your team is to raise the floor. It's hard to find star talent; that takes patience, development, money, luck, etc. It's easier to raise the floor by creating more depth, shoring up the weakest positions, etc. It's amazing how much better a team is by simply not giving innings to bad players. And I do think this front office understands that and tries to mitigate against it.

"Saved" is a little loaded and probably overstates things a little. Taylor has been pretty good, but in fact has been a little below what we might have expected; he's shown good pop in the bat (and it's made for some big moments) but even less patience than usual and his defense has slipped a bit from outstanding to good/very good. The extra value we've gotten from him has been mostly about his availability, which we needed with Buxton's knee keeping him out of center.

Castro has been the real revelation; his OPS+ of 96 shows that he's still not a plus player at the plate, but the baserunning, defense, and positional flexibility has made him a real asset, a far better one than I had expected. His OBP is good enough to make him ok at the plate even if he has no real power, especially since he's a serious threat on the basepaths. (did anyone see 5th in MLB in SBs coming? the guys above him on the list have gotten a lot more ABs this season too.) He's not just stealing a lot of bases; he's doing it without giving up many outs, he's going from 1st to 3rd, is a threat to score from 2nd on anything to the OF at all times, etc. You can bring in Castro to pinch run any time in a game and not worry about screwing up your defense. That's awfully nice.

I absolutely understood the Taylor signing, and it's done as intended: ensuring that if Buxton can't play in CF that we don't get stuck giving time to a 9th choice in the OF like last season. Sorry, Mark Contreras. I wasn't sure about the Castro acquisition; he seemed redundant with other guys on the roster like Gordon or Farmer, but he's been a great fit and they've played to his strengths without over-using him.

[jkcarew]

In an extremely sad and frustrating way...yes.

Between the two of them, could end up being the difference between 80 and 85 wins, with their 'above-expectation' performances.

Maybe just enough to clear the extremely low hurdle to win this division....for whatever that may prove to be worth.

[old nurse]

6 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Bechtold has a 9.39 ERA and 3 times as many walks as strikeouts in AAA. He's clearly not ready to contribute to a major league team.

Try again

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=bechto000and

[Oldtimer]

Castro... Team MVP!!!

[DJL44]

14 hours ago, old nurse said:

Try again

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=bechto000and

You and I are talking about the same player. Bechtold also has an .800 OPS in AAA which also shows clearly he's not ready to contribute at the major league level with his bat. Hitters who are ready for a promotion are above 1000 OPS in AAA. He's currently a Triple-A bench player.

[The Mad King]

I still think Castro was signed to be minor league depth, but maybe with Taylor it was the plan all along to play center field. The offense has been a plus.

[DocBauer]

Is "save" a bit hyperbolic? Hmmm....maybe. But where would the Twins be without Taylor in CF with Buxton out, Gordon out, Martin out, and Celestino out? Stevenson maybe? So having, potentially, next to nothing vs an experienced veteran, Gold Glove winner with some power and speed, definitely a tip of the cap to Taylor as  smart add a life preserver, if not an actual raft/boat.

And Castro rising to his best season as a ML and providing solid defense wherever put, and an element of speed we have seldom seen the past few years...with the exception of Buxton when reasonably healthy...he may be slightly below ML average in OPS, but that's why he was never intended to be a true starter to begin with, even though he's been practically forced to do so. Again, maybe not a full raft/boat but definitely a life preserver.

Really scary to realize that the role players and the young players are the ones that have mostly carried this team. (Due respect to the best Kepler has played in about 3yrs the past couple of months). How much better might this team be if Wallner had been up earlier? If some of the other younger players might have had a shot before now? If the veterans hadn't decided to all have horrible seasons all at the same time?

And how much worse might this team have been without the young players and bench players coming through?