This Former Divisional Foe Could Provide Stability at Third Base

[Cody Schoenmann]

The Twins have lacked stability at the third base all season. Could a past divisional foe provide consistency at the hot corner?

Image courtesy of © Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Since the departure of Trevor Plouffe after the 2016 season, third base has been a revolving door of sorts for the Twins. They tried handing the position to top prospect Miguel Sano, signing Josh Donaldson to a four-year contract, and then trading Donaldson to the Yankees, hoping to replace him with Gio Urshela. Sadly, none of these attempts to improve at third base worked.

After trading Urshela to the Los Angeles Angels this past offseason, the plan was to hand third base to Jose Miranda. Whether it be a nagging shoulder injury or succumbing to the pressure those who follow the Twins placed on him, Miranda has been nearly unplayable at third base, offensively and defensively. 

After demoting Miranda to Triple-A St. Paul, the Twins immediately activated Royce Lewis from the 60-day IL and anointed him as the full-time starting third baseman. 

Lewis thrived at third, hitting .326/.354/.474 (.828) with a wRC+ of 132 over 99 plate appearances, but unfortunately, suffered a left oblique strain while running to first while facing the Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards and has been on the 10-day IL since July 2.

Fortunately, Lewis has recently begun playing catch and swinging the bat and plans to return around mid-August. 

Lewis feels destined to take over the full-time role once he returns from injury. Even so, with rumors of Jorge Polanco planning on playing third base during his rehab assignment at Triple-A due to the grand emergence of Edouard Julien, the Twins plan for the position appears to be up in the air. 

Lewis, Polanco, and the rotation of Kyle Farmer, Donovan Solano, and Willi Castro feel like adequate solutions for third base, but what if there was a more reliable option?

That option may be current Washington Nationals third baseman Jeimer Candelario.

Despite flying under the radar to the average baseball fan, Candelario is all too familiar to Twins fans.

Candelario, 29, was the starting third baseman for the Detroit Tigers, spanning six years from 2017-2022. Candelario has played 76 total games versus the Twins, including three earlier this season with the Nationals. 

In 2023 with the Nationals, Candelario has been outstanding. Through 386 plate appearances, Candelario is hitting .257/.334/.478 (.812) with 15 home runs with a wRC+ of 117. Candelario has also accumulated 2.7 fWAR while sporting an Isolated Power (ISO) of .222, 59 points above the league average.

Candelario, a switch-hitter, is hitting the ball hard and far from both sides of the batter's box, but he is hitting exceptionally well against left-handed pitching, a trait this Twins team needs. 

Let's take a look.

When Facing Left-Handed Pitching: 119 PA, 25 H, 8 Doubles, 3 HR, 11 BB, 24 K, .240 AVG, .740 OPS
When Facing Right-Handed Pitching: 267 PA, 63 H, 19 Doubles, 12 HR, 20 BB, 57 K, .264 AVG, .843 OPS

Candelario, unlike Farmer and Solano, has been able hit left-handed pitching at an exceptional level this season, and would instantly provide a spark to that element of the Twins lineup.

Candelario is also an incredible defensive third-baseman. Through 91 games, Candelario has generated six (6) Outs Above Average (OAA), ranking him as the sixth-best defensive third baseman in baseball. 

Here is how Candelario's OAA is divided:

• To the left: 5 OAA
• To the right: 0 OAA
• Going back: 1 OAA

Candelario is average while ranging back and to his right, but he excels when going to his left.

This is interesting as Candelario's potential life side of the infield partner, Carlos Correa, does exceptionally well going to his right, generating three OAA. With Candelario and Correa's strengths coinciding with one another, the Twins, in theory, could effectively cover the "5.5 hole", which is something the Twins have struggled with this season.

To put Candelario's defensive performance into perspective, here is how Twins third baseman have fared when it comes to generating OAA this season:

• Miranda, 38 games (-6 OAA)
• Farmer, 27 games (-2 OAA)
• Castro, 26 games (1 OAA)
• Lewis, 24 games (-1 OAA)

Castro has been the Twins best defensive third baseman, and he has done so by being merely average. Admittedly, Castro is a solid defensive third baseman, but his value resides in being a utility player who can also play every outfield spot, shortstop, and second base. 

Lewis was fine when healthy, although he is better suited as a center fielder or second baseman. Farmer has been serviceable, and Miranda has unsurprisingly been one of baseball's worst defensive third baseman this season. 

Regardless, no current Twins third base options are on par with Candelario defensively.

With a mix of power, contact, and an overall presence that, whether the concept of lineup protection is real or not, would add a sense of protection to this Twins lineup at a corner infield spot, Candelario is a player the Twins should strongly consider investing in. A hypothetical infield of Kirilloff, Julien, Correa, and Candelario is intriguing and would make the Twins one of the best offensive infields in the American League. 

Admittedly, having Farmer, Solano, and Castro, as well as Polanco, Lewis, and Miranda likely returning soon from injury, makes adding Candelario seem redundant on the surface. Yet, the addition of Candelario would bring a sense of consistency and resolution to one of the more critical positions on the field and in the lineup.

Hypothetically, when the Twins face a left-handed pitcher, Lewis could play third, Candelario could play first, and Polanco could play second alongside Correa at shortstop.

Then, when the Twins faced a right-handed pitcher, Candelario could play third, Kirilloff could play first, and Julien could play second with Correa at shortstop.

Adding Candelario would give the Twins a plus corner infield bat that would give them an abundance of options when facing different-handed pitchers. 

Also, and arguably more importantly, trading for Candelario would provide the Twins a sense of stability at third base that has yet to be present since Plouffe departed in 2016.

A right-handed hitting corner outfielder that hits left-handed pitching well (i.e., Hunter Renfroe, Teoscar Hernandez, Tommy Pham, etc.) should be the Twins main priority, but adding a corner infielder who hits left-handed pitching well is an area the team the Twins shouldn't shy away from improving.

Should the Twins trade for Candelario? How do you think the Twins have fared at third base this season? Comment below.

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[Fatbat]

Brooks. Lee. 

[CRF]

Well...I'd much rather have Nolan Arenado. Can we do that instead please?

[Puckett34]

7 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Brooks. Lee. 

Has played a grand total of 9 innings of professional baseball at 3B, along with 2 games when he was at Covallis in 2018. If he had been playing there with any significant time there this year, I'm probably with you.  But I don't think he's it, at least at 3B anyway. Especially if Royce is 2+ weeks away.

[chpettit19]

Not a fan of turning Lewis into a platoon player at this point. Basically all of their offensive talent is in the infield. They can move Kirilloff to a cOF spot, but it doesn't sound like Lewis is stepping on the grass at all this year, and I have to assume Julien was brutal out there in his brief stint in 2021 so they don't want to put him back out there. I don't see any room for Candelario. 6 IFers for 4 spots, and maybe some DH time if they're willing to sit Buxton, is too many. They need OF and bullpen talent upgrades, not IF. I do like Candelario's bat, though. Just doesn't fit on this roster, in my opinion.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I would be a fan, as it would be just for this season, and who knows where Royce will play next year ongoing. I'd be MORE than fine with having Lewis in the outfield the rest of this year (or as a super utility) if he can stay healthy, and next year as an outfielder once Lee is ready.

He is clearly a good defender and is hitting well. He would help the team.

[Fatbat]

@puckett_34 so we need a 3rd baseman for a couple weeks. Bringing Lee up provides both him and the Twins with playing time and developmental data. No one will ever convince me that Lee doesn’t have the talent to play 3rd in mlb.

[MABB1959]

What about DH when not needed in the infield?

[USAFChief]

When Facing Right-Handed Pitching: 119 PA, 25 H, 8 Doubles, 3 HR, 11 BB, 24 K, .240 AVG, .740 OPS
When Facing Left-Handed Pitching: 267 PA, 63 H, 19 Doubles, 12 HR, 20 BB, 57 K, .264 AVG, .843 OPS

 

You have that backwards. 119 PAs vs LH pitching, not RH.

267 PAs vs RH pitching

There are always way more RH pitchers than left, so when I looked at the above I thought, "weird...Candelario has faced over twice as many lefthanders as righties this year?? That cant be right."

So I looked it up. It isnt. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=candeje01&year=2023&t=b

 

Career wise he's a little better vs LH pitching, 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=candeje01&year=2023&t=b

But what Candelario's career really shows is 2023 to date is most likely not sustainable. He's got 8 yrs of .736 OPS behind him.

Pass. 

 

 

[Karbo]

Not unless he can play OF or pitch in relief!

[jorgenswest]

Nationals would be wise to sell high. His 2022 performance was abysmal. This year his batting average and slugging percentage exceed his xBA and xSLG. I would go with Polanco.

[Doctor Gast]

Our biggest problem this year at 3B, is Miranda. Lewis with more time at 3B will only get better, Castro, Farmer & Solano shows plenty of good depth there.  We aren't hurting at 3B, keep Polanco at 2B and we're a better team w/ Julien at 1B

[MABB1959]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I would be a fan, as it would be just for this season, and who knows where Royce will play next year ongoing. I'd be MORE than fine with having Lewis in the outfield the rest of this year (or as a super utility) if he can stay healthy, and next year as an outfielder once Lee is ready.

He is clearly a good defender and is hitting well. He would help the team.

I don't have any confidence about him staying healthy.  The next Buxton IMO.

[Puckett34]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

@puckett_34 so we need a 3rd baseman for a couple weeks. Bringing Lee up provides both him and the Twins with playing time and developmental data. No one will ever convince me that Lee doesn’t have the talent to play 3rd in mlb.

Never said he didn't have the talent.  I'm sure he does. I was talking about experience.  So you would rather DFA someone, anyone at the expense of trying an inexperienced 3B that has barely played there in any capacity for the sake of needing a 3B for a minimum of a few weeks? I surely don't.

[Major League Ready]

So we need a place to play Polanco and Lewis but we should trade for another guy?

[Mike Sixel]

I don't think Lewis will ever be fully healthy. I've advocated for polanco to play third on his return, and that looks possible. Between those two, third is covered. They need an OFor two... And RP. 

I'd be happy if prato had come up for Buxton....or Severino....or Lee, who is still playing SS exclusively even though CC is going nowhere....

So, hard pass on this idea that I previously thought might be a good Idea. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

The problem with the many proposals to trade for a player that would improve the Twins is that no one wants to give anything up — or severely overvalues the trade chips and wants to trade Miranda and Winder for Ohtani.  Let’s face it, trading our 21st or 24th best prospect isn’t going to get much.   I think Candelario would be a fine player to have, but I don’t see how we find room for Kiriloff, Correa, Julian, Lewis, Polanco, Farmer, Solano, Castro AND Candelario.  There just isn’t space on the roster.  Granted, they won’t all be healthy at the same time, but if they are on the team, you want as many reps and AB’s for Lewis and Julian as possible.  If Candelario comes on board, then someone needs to leave, and it might need to be someone that we are attached to.  

[Lagputter]

How about a different Nationals Player?  I think Lane Thomas would be a great fit for the Twins.  RH hiitting corner OF who still has some team control time.  Give up 2-3 mid level prospects, maybe Austin Martin and Pitcher or 2?  Just spit balling here.

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Our biggest problem this year at 3B, is Miranda. Lewis with more time at 3B will only get better, Castro, Farmer & Solano shows plenty of good depth there.  We aren't hurting at 3B, keep Polanco at 2B and we're a better team w/ Julien at 1B

I am not sure Julien has the hands to play 1B. There will be plenty of bounced throws and scoops he will need to handle and that he hasn’t shown that ability at 2B mishandling throws from catcher and some grounders.

I certainly would want to see him there for two or three weeks in AAA before playing him there for the Twins. We need his bat and I think the only spots are DH and 2B.

[tony&rodney]

No room at the inn. In the days of 9-11 pitchers on a roster, there was a uniform for Candy. Now you have to ask who he replaces: Lewis, Castro, Polanco, Farmer, Solano, Julien. Who goes? Perhaps some teams gets all anxious and offers too much for Farmer and Solano, but that is close to a zero chance.

[Cody Schoenmann]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

When Facing Right-Handed Pitching: 119 PA, 25 H, 8 Doubles, 3 HR, 11 BB, 24 K, .240 AVG, .740 OPS
When Facing Left-Handed Pitching: 267 PA, 63 H, 19 Doubles, 12 HR, 20 BB, 57 K, .264 AVG, .843 OPS

 

You have that backwards. 119 PAs vs LH pitching, not RH.

267 PAs vs RH pitching

There are always way more RH pitchers than left, so when I looked at the above I thought, "weird...Candelario has faced over twice as many lefthanders as righties this year?? That cant be right."

So I looked it up. It isnt. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=candeje01&year=2023&t=b

 

Career wise he's a little better vs LH pitching, 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=candeje01&year=2023&t=b

But what Candelario's career really shows is 2023 to date is most likely not sustainable. He's got 8 yrs of .736 OPS behind him.

Pass. 

 

 

Thanks for letting me know @USAFChief . I corrected it. I appreciate it!

[SotaSports in NM]

4 hours ago, CRF said:

Well...I'd much rather have Nolan Arenado. Can we do that instead please?

It would take 2 of our top 5 prospects and more to get him. No thank you.

[Fatbat]

@Puckett34 no need to DFA anyone, trade gallo for a prospect which will open up a roster spot.  Work out the other roster spots as  needed. Lewis will most likely get his shot at sticking at 3rd. Polanco hopefully returns to health and Julien can DH while buck changes diapers….

[jkcarew]

Is Lewis coming back?

If yes…

Will Candelario be free?

And will he come with an active roster exemption?

[Puckett34]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

@Puckett34 no need to DFA anyone, trade gallo for a prospect which will open up a roster spot.  Work out the other roster spots as  needed. Lewis will most likely get his shot at sticking at 3rd. Polanco hopefully returns to health and Julien can DH while buck changes diapers….

Who of sound mind and body is trading for Gallo given how his season is going?

[Fatbat]

23 minutes ago, Puckett34 said:

Who of sound mind and body is trading for Gallo given how his season is going?

🙋‍♂️

[JD-TWINS]

7 hours ago, Karbo said:

Not unless he can play OF or pitch in relief!

Exactly right. We need somebody to pitch the 7th & 8th innings………pretty sure Royce Lewis with CC/Farmer - Julien/Polanco - Kirilloff/Solano give us enough offense in the IF. Easily, Lewis is offensively on a better level than Candelerio. Don’t get it other than for 2-3 weeks on a fantasy team.

[bigdave]

No thanks on Jeimer. He's never been any good until this season. He could be this season's Jorge Lopez.

[Otaknam]

19 hours ago, Fatbat said:

@Puckett34 no need to DFA anyone, trade gallo for a prospect which will open up a roster spot.  Work out the other roster spots as  needed. Lewis will most likely get his shot at sticking at 3rd. Polanco hopefully returns to health and Julien can DH while buck changes diapers….

Who would trade for Gallo, given his nearly 50% strikeout rate? More likely he will be DFA’d when a roster move is made. It’s better to keep the younger players who have potential. 

[saviking]

I spend all of my time trying to figure out who we can get rid of so kids like Lewis and Lee have a spot on the twins roster. In my dreams I invasion seeing a line up sometime next year of:

Julien 2B

Lee 3B

Lewis CF

Krilloff 1B

Wallner RF

Larnach LF

Correa SS 

Jeffers C

Buxton DH

Anyone else think this lineup could do damage?