This Former Divisional Foe Could Provide Stability at Third Base

Since the departure of Trevor Plouffe after the 2016 season, third base has been a revolving door of sorts for the Twins. They tried handing the position to top prospect Miguel Sano, signing Josh Donaldson to a four-year contract, and then trading Donaldson to the Yankees, hoping to replace him with Gio Urshela. Sadly, none of these attempts to improve at third base worked.

After trading Urshela to the Los Angeles Angels this past offseason, the plan was to hand third base to Jose Miranda. Whether it be a nagging shoulder injury or succumbing to the pressure those who follow the Twins placed on him, Miranda has been nearly unplayable at third base, offensively and defensively. 

After demoting Miranda to Triple-A St. Paul, the Twins immediately activated Royce Lewis from the 60-day IL and anointed him as the full-time starting third baseman. 

Lewis thrived at third, hitting .326/.354/.474 (.828) with a wRC+ of 132 over 99 plate appearances, but unfortunately, suffered a left oblique strain while running to first while facing the Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards and has been on the 10-day IL since July 2.

Fortunately, Lewis has recently begun playing catch and swinging the bat and plans to return around mid-August. 

Lewis feels destined to take over the full-time role once he returns from injury. Even so, with rumors of Jorge Polanco planning on playing third base during his rehab assignment at Triple-A due to the grand emergence of Edouard Julien, the Twins plan for the position appears to be up in the air. 

Lewis, Polanco, and the rotation of Kyle Farmer, Donovan Solano, and Willi Castro feel like adequate solutions for third base, but what if there was a more reliable option?

That option may be current Washington Nationals third baseman Jeimer Candelario.

Despite flying under the radar to the average baseball fan, Candelario is all too familiar to Twins fans.

Candelario, 29, was the starting third baseman for the Detroit Tigers, spanning six years from 2017-2022. Candelario has played 76 total games versus the Twins, including three earlier this season with the Nationals. 

In 2023 with the Nationals, Candelario has been outstanding. Through 386 plate appearances, Candelario is hitting .257/.334/.478 (.812) with 15 home runs with a wRC+ of 117. Candelario has also accumulated 2.7 fWAR while sporting an Isolated Power (ISO) of .222, 59 points above the league average.

Candelario, a switch-hitter, is hitting the ball hard and far from both sides of the batter's box, but he is hitting exceptionally well against left-handed pitching, a trait this Twins team needs. 

Let's take a look.

When Facing Left-Handed Pitching: 119 PA, 25 H, 8 Doubles, 3 HR, 11 BB, 24 K, .240 AVG, .740 OPS
When Facing Right-Handed Pitching: 267 PA, 63 H, 19 Doubles, 12 HR, 20 BB, 57 K, .264 AVG, .843 OPS

Candelario, unlike Farmer and Solano, has been able hit left-handed pitching at an exceptional level this season, and would instantly provide a spark to that element of the Twins lineup.

Candelario is also an incredible defensive third-baseman. Through 91 games, Candelario has generated six (6) Outs Above Average (OAA), ranking him as the sixth-best defensive third baseman in baseball. 

Here is how Candelario's OAA is divided:

• To the left: 5 OAA
• To the right: 0 OAA
• Going back: 1 OAA

Candelario is average while ranging back and to his right, but he excels when going to his left.

This is interesting as Candelario's potential life side of the infield partner, Carlos Correa, does exceptionally well going to his right, generating three OAA. With Candelario and Correa's strengths coinciding with one another, the Twins, in theory, could effectively cover the "5.5 hole", which is something the Twins have struggled with this season.

To put Candelario's defensive performance into perspective, here is how Twins third baseman have fared when it comes to generating OAA this season:

• Miranda, 38 games (-6 OAA)
• Farmer, 27 games (-2 OAA)
• Castro, 26 games (1 OAA)
• Lewis, 24 games (-1 OAA)

Castro has been the Twins best defensive third baseman, and he has done so by being merely average. Admittedly, Castro is a solid defensive third baseman, but his value resides in being a utility player who can also play every outfield spot, shortstop, and second base. 

Lewis was fine when healthy, although he is better suited as a center fielder or second baseman. Farmer has been serviceable, and Miranda has unsurprisingly been one of baseball's worst defensive third baseman this season. 

Regardless, no current Twins third base options are on par with Candelario defensively.

With a mix of power, contact, and an overall presence that, whether the concept of lineup protection is real or not, would add a sense of protection to this Twins lineup at a corner infield spot, Candelario is a player the Twins should strongly consider investing in. A hypothetical infield of Kirilloff, Julien, Correa, and Candelario is intriguing and would make the Twins one of the best offensive infields in the American League. 

Admittedly, having Farmer, Solano, and Castro, as well as Polanco, Lewis, and Miranda likely returning soon from injury, makes adding Candelario seem redundant on the surface. Yet, the addition of Candelario would bring a sense of consistency and resolution to one of the more critical positions on the field and in the lineup.

Hypothetically, when the Twins face a left-handed pitcher, Lewis could play third, Candelario could play first, and Polanco could play second alongside Correa at shortstop.

Then, when the Twins faced a right-handed pitcher, Candelario could play third, Kirilloff could play first, and Julien could play second with Correa at shortstop.

Adding Candelario would give the Twins a plus corner infield bat that would give them an abundance of options when facing different-handed pitchers. 

Also, and arguably more importantly, trading for Candelario would provide the Twins a sense of stability at third base that has yet to be present since Plouffe departed in 2016.

A right-handed hitting corner outfielder that hits left-handed pitching well (i.e., Hunter Renfroe, Teoscar Hernandez, Tommy Pham, etc.) should be the Twins main priority, but adding a corner infielder who hits left-handed pitching well is an area the team the Twins shouldn't shy away from improving.

Should the Twins trade for Candelario? How do you think the Twins have fared at third base this season? Comment below.