Joe Ryan is the Twins' Most Valuable Trade Asset

[Cody Christie]

Young and controllable starting pitching is one of the most valuable assets for any organization. Joe Ryan fits both categories, so would the team consider trading him to add future assets?

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Joe Ryan has established himself as an above-average big-league pitcher over the last three seasons, making him Minnesota's most valuable trade asset. Since joining the Twins in 2021, he has pitched 286 innings with a 3.68 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 312-to-73 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Some might argue that he deserved to be an All-Star in 2023 as he ranked 10th among AL pitchers in fWAR. He improved his split-finger this winter and has utilized it effectively in the first half to add to his projections in the coming years. 

Many national outlets are starting to compile trade deadline primers, including the value of potential trade assets. FanGraphs compiles a ranking of the top 50 trade assets, which uses ZiPS to project a player's five-year WAR and takes into account contract status, age, and team control. Ryan ranks 45th according to FanGraphs because he is under team control through 2027 and projects for 9.5 WAR over the next five years. Ryan's value comes from the fact that he is a reliable starting pitcher that will come at a bargain price for multiple years. 

His value is even higher because trading for a starting pitcher comes with the possibility of that player suffering an injury. Unfortunately, Minnesota fell victim to this last year when trading for Tyler Mahle, but not every pitcher has the same risk. Ryan comes with less risk because he can still provide value to a trading team even if he misses most of a season due to injury. 

FanGraphs said, "What gives Ryan the edge over the crop of rookie starters on the list of honorable mentions? It's the certainty, more or less. Pitchers always have some likelihood of injury, but they also have a likelihood of taking a leap forward into stardom. Ryan marries that potential leap with a high floor; the combination of that and the amount of time you could have him on your team makes him more valuable than you might think."

FanGraphs isn't the only outlet that believes in Ryan's high trade value. Baseball Trade Values (BTV) ranks Ryan number one among all assets in the major and minor leagues. According to BTV, Ryan's median value is $78.2 M with a potential high value of $93.8 M. Minnesota's following four highest-ranked players don't come close to the same value as Ryan's. Brooks Lee ($47.6 M), Pablo Lopez ($46.9 M), Bailey Ober ($45.2 M), and Jhoan Duran ($37.8 M) round out the team's top five, according to BTV. Based on this list, it's clear that controllable starting pitching has extreme value in any trade scenario. 

BTV also tries to identify the availability of players for their simulation models. They consider Ryan and Duran's availability "Low," while the other MLB players rank as "Medium" availability. Lee doesn't get an availability ranking since he is still in the minor leagues. Among these players, Lee is likely the only player with an opportunity to be traded, and that's only if the front office feels like they are getting significant value in return. Minnesota's front office made aggressive moves at last year's deadline to add a frontline starting pitcher, two relievers, and a backup catcher. Few of those deals worked out in the team's favor, but it shouldn't stop Derek Falvey and Thad Levine from making moves in the coming weeks. 

The Twins were lucky to get Ryan from the Rays for Nelson Cruz's expiring contract, so there is almost a non-zero chance that the club would move him before the trade deadline. He is part of the organization's long-term plans because he has found ways to consistently improve while coming at a low cost for multiple years. Ryan also debuted at age-25, so he can only reach free agency after his age-31 season. The Twins have him under team control for the prime of his career, and there's little chance they are letting him go. 

Should the Twins consider trading some of their highly valued assets? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[Taildragger8791]

No.

</thread>

[luckylager]

Sure, if the Twins want to force me to finally end my 50 years of team fandom, by all means, trade Joe Ryan.

[Karbo]

Nobody in their right mind would think Ryan is going anywhere, It would take a kings ransom and I don't see any other team parting with one!

[Tibs]

What?

[Cory Engelhardt]

I mean, the beyond obvious answer is no here. It's not happening and it won't happen.

What would even a fair deal look like? A near all-star level pitcher with 4+ years team control, who the team markets as a core player and is generally well loved by the fanbase? I have no idea how to wrap my head around that.

In 2025, if the Twins are way out of it prior to the deadline, and Joe only has 2+ years of team control left, then this conversation could possibly get started.

For now, with the team in 1st place in the division and on a path to make the playoffs, this kind of trade just doesn't happen. Thank goodness for that.

[Doctor Gast]

A top end SP is something very rare especially for the Twins (except this year), then you add his years of  availability. A diamond that you want to hold on to. I'm hopeful that the Twins will be competitive in the coming years where we'll need him.

[Twins GFP]

This has to be a hot take.

[old nurse]

4 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

This has to be a hot take.

My misreading was This must be a hot FAKE. 

[bloomwcjkl]

No. Don't trade Joe Ryan. 

[old nurse]

Since a trade of Ryan would mean that either you don’t see him having a future or you-do not see this team as constructed having a future.  Going with the latter the Twins trade Pablo Lopez, ,Sonny Gray, Ryan, and Julian to St Louis for Hence, their last 3 first round draft picks, as well as the rest of their top 10 picks from this year. The Twins would have included the other Lopez and Pagan to bolster the Cardinal bullpen but St. Louis wanted half their draft class back

[Unwinder]

He's such a valuable trade asset that it's nearly impossible to imagine an asset worth trading him for. If they traded him 1/1 for Ohtani, my knee-jerk response would be "they'd better have an extension worked out!"

[Walser]

My gut tells me no, especially after all the horrible pitching we had to endure in the 2010s, but if a desperate team were willing to massively overpay I might entertain the idea of trading Ryan.

[CRF]

Ridiculous. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

7 minutes ago, Walser said:

My gut tells me no, especially after all the horrible pitching we had to endure in the 2010s, but if a desperate team were willing to massively overpay I might entertain the idea of trading Ryan.

What does a massive overpay look like that you would even consider? I can't think of one. 

[Schmoeman5]

44 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I mean, the beyond obvious answer is no here. It's not happening and it won't happen.

What would even a fair deal look like? A near all-star level pitcher with 4+ years team control, who the team markets as a core player and is generally well loved by the fanbase? I have no idea how to wrap my head around that.

In 2025, if the Twins are way out of it prior to the deadline, and Joe only has 2+ years of team control left, then this conversation could possibly get started.

For now, with the team in 1st place in the division and on a path to make the playoffs, this kind of trade just doesn't happen. Thank goodness for that.

I was thinking similarly. Only my scenario was 2026. Hey while they're at it, the Twins might as well trade P. Lopez whom they extended earlier this season. Hed probably bring in a load of prospects too. Throw Ober in for good measure.

[Vanimal46]

11 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

I was thinking similarly. Only my scenario was 2026. Hey while they're at it, the Twins might as well trade P. Lopez whom they extended earlier this season. Hed probably bring in a load of prospects too. Throw Ober in for good measure.

Why stop there? Royce Lewis and Eddie Julien have a bit of value. Flip them too. 

[Walser]

22 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

What does a massive overpay look like that you would even consider? I can't think of one. 

Ryan to the Dodgers for Cartaya, Sheehan, Busch, Pepiot.

[Cory Engelhardt]

7 minutes ago, Walser said:

Ryan to the Dodgers for Cartaya, Sheehan, Busch, Pepiot.

I mean, that would be accepted by baseball trade values dot com, but it just isn't realistic for right now today. And BECAUSE it's accepted by that site, I'd argue it's not a massive overpay. 

It doesn't help the team in 2023, and I'd argue losing a pitcher of Ryan's caliber hurts the team MORE for 2024-2027 than whatever prospect capital would bring back.

[Schmoeman5]

17 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Why stop there? Royce Lewis and Eddie Julien have a bit of value. Flip them too. 

The Twins could become the 50s and early 60s Kansas City A's. Develope young players and supply them to the Yankees for old broke down glue horses 

[Nine of twelve]

For Pete's sake.

Any and every player should be traded if the transaction makes the organization better. But it's waaaaay doubtful that this would be the case in a Ryan trade. Giving up a very good, young, controllable starter like Ryan would happen only if the overpay from the other team(s) involved is huge. Jumbo. Ginormous! Woo! Woo!

[mnfireman]

He doesn't actually say they should trade him, he just points out that he is an obvious target for other teams. He is in the prime of his career, he has a team-friendly salary, and his actual and predictive stats are good. Also, only he, Ober and P. Lopez are guarantees for next season's rotation. Two open spots will be hard enough to fill.

Let's lighten up in here a bit guys!!

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

1 hour ago, Unwinder said:

He's such a valuable trade asset that it's nearly impossible to imagine an asset worth trading him for. If they traded him 1/1 for Ohtani, my knee-jerk response would be "they'd better have an extension worked out!"

I would think Ryan, Lopez, Ober, Duran, Lewis AND Lee would be enough to land Trout AND Ohtani.

Get er done!! 🤣

[tony&rodney]

I'm curious what initiated this post of the idea of trading Joe Ryan. That said, the Twins should always be listening. What if San Diego offered Jackson Merrill, Ethan Salas, and Dylan Lesko? But we can see that Washington is struggling with the haul they received for Juan Soto. So it becomes a question of looking at whether the Twins are capable of winning or need a rebuild. A team with Carlos Correa, Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and others doesn't look on paper like such a bad team. I would not likely accept the above mythical offer from San Diego. Ryan stays.

[Cory Engelhardt]

5 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

He doesn't actually say they should trade him, he just points out that he is an obvious target for other teams. He is in the prime of his career, he has a team-friendly salary, and his actual and predictive stats are good. Also, only he, Ober and P. Lopez are guarantees for next season's rotation. Two open spots will be hard enough to fill.

Let's lighten up in here a bit guys!!

Not attacking the writer; trying to understand the premise or logic of it though. 

Are you able to think of a realistic overpay that would actually be accepted? I'm of the belief that there isn't one out there that 1) Another team would offer, 2) The Twins wouldn't hang up the phone over, and 3) Would actually benefit the team for 2023-2027.

I'd also say that Chris Paddack is most likely in the rotation in 2024. I also think a QO for Maeda or Gray will be on the table, and it's POSSIBLE one accepts. Otherwise, the rest of free agency/offseason can be used to add to the team.

[mnfireman]

3 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Not attacking the writer; trying to understand the premise or logic of it though. 

Are you able to think of a realistic overpay that would actually be accepted? I'm of the belief that there isn't one out there that 1) Another team would offer, 2) The Twins wouldn't hang up the phone over, and 3) Would actually benefit the team for 2023-2027.

I'd also say that Chris Paddack is most likely in the rotation in 2024. I also think a QO for Maeda or Gray will be on the table, and it's POSSIBLE one accepts. Otherwise, the rest of free agency/offseason can be used to add to the team.

11 days until the trade deadline, some team is one little hot-streak from being in contention or one starting pitcher injury away from falling out of contention - there is and will be a market for him. I believe the team would have to be absolutely blown away by the offer to move him, and would also had to have fallen out of contention.

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

7 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

11 days until the trade deadline, some team is one little hot-streak from being in contention or one starting pitcher injury away from falling out of contention - there is and will be a market for him. I believe the team would have to be absolutely blown away by the offer to move him, and would also had to have fallen out of contention.

 

2 things that won't happen.

[mnfireman]

Just now, Cory Engelhardt said:

2 things that won't happen.

I believe 1 won't happen, and I hope 1 won't happen....

[Cory Engelhardt]

Just now, mnfireman said:

I believe 1 won't happen, and I hope 1 won't happen....

If you think the Twins lose the next 9 games, while the rest of the central doesn't lose between now and August 1, so they are what, 5 games back (in this hypothetical) AND they then trade Ryan, well, I don't know what to say.

Do you also want to purchase some oceanfront property in southern MN?

[Fatbat]

Straight up for Otani. Otani signs with us for 8 years $500,000,000.00. Otherwise. Hell to the no. Nope. NOPE.