Rumor: Will the St Louis Cardinals Trade Nolan Arenado?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Nolan Arenado seems like a perfectly reasonable chap who was kinda done dirty by the Colorado Rockies (though being forcibly booted out of that organization is something of a blessing). Jon Heyman asked him a few questions the other day and Arenado says he isn't expecting a trade but wouldn't be surprised by one, either.

Things are bleak in St Louis. The Cardinals aren't used to losing like this and it appears no one really knows how to handle their current struggles. Things were obviously very wrong when Marmol heaved Willson Contreras under the bus and while the Cards have put together a couple of small winning streaks, they've gone right back to losing again afterward.

Truth be told, I hadn't even considered an Arenado trade. While he's aging toward his mid-30s, he's still very productive with the bat and his contract is quite reasonable through 2027, given that the Rockies are on the hook for $5 million per year for the next three years.

It's quite obvious the Cardinals will be selling but to what extent? And given the Twins' offensive woes, can they simultaneously afford and not afford to pursue an expensive-but-good player with loads of control remaining?

View full rumor

[Mike Sixel]

I'd be for this, but I think the price will be too high. But it sure would help the team until Lewis returns, at which point what do you do with Lewis, if he refuses to play CF (sure would be nice to have him there instead of Taylor). That's a lot more runs if those two things happen......

Miranda and a corner OF from AAA and a middling prospect? IF they can get Lewis to move to the OF, I do that all day. 

[CRF]

I'd be all in on that one, but the Cards need pitching, not position players. 

[Jocko87]

14 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'd be for this, but I think the price will be too high. But it sure would help the team until Lewis returns, at which point what do you do with Lewis, if he refuses to play CF (sure would be nice to have him there instead of Taylor). That's a lot more runs if those two things happen......

Miranda and a corner OF from AAA and a middling prospect? IF they can get Lewis to move to the OF, I do that all day. 

I watched a bunch of Cardinals games when I lived in Illinois, he is only behind Buxton in players fun to watch play defense for me.  It's spectacular in person, so easy for him.

The middling prospect here with Miranda is Julien and I would do that in a second.  Get them to throw a couple youngsters somewhere to balance it out.  Lewis plays 2nd as Polo comes and goes and bounces around the infield.  CF maybe next year but I don't like moving him mid-season.  All of a sudden that infield defense will be what we expected the outfield to be. 

Contract is reasonable, but how do the deferred payments work for the years not yet incurred?  Assuming they come with for the remainder of the years unless negotiated? 

[TwinsDr2021]

Arenado is a weird situation. He just turned 32 so he should be plenty good though the rest of his contract. And it looks like a ton of that money is deferred. Yet on the MLB simulator he has a negative trade value (assuming because of the contract size or full no trade clause)

I would be very open to trading for him, basically wraps up the left side of the infield for next 3/4 years. With that said it would really depend on who the Cards wanted, I wouldn't trade Festa, Erod, Lee or Raya. But if Miranda, Miller and a younger pitcher I would do it. (or something like that)

 

[nicksaviking]

Maybe it's just because the Cardinals are never in position to sell so I'm unaccustomed to it, but I'm of the mind Arenado and Goldschmidt are staying put. Their offense is a pretty good mix of high quality vets and promising youth, I think they hold tight and try to fix the rotation in the offseason to try to make another run next year. There are quite a few good looking starting pitchers available in free agency, and they're not shy about spending.

But would I go for Arenado if he's available? For sure.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I think the Twins need to add a solid bat prior to the deadline. Whoever that is, at least show they are open to adding. If it is a big name player like this, the fit will work.

[wsnydes]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Maybe it's just because the Cardinals are never in position to sell so I'm unaccustomed to it, but I'm of the mind Arenado and Goldschmidt are staying put. Their offense is a pretty good mix of high quality vets and promising youth, I think they hold tight and try to fix the rotation in the offseason to try to make another run next year. There are quite a few good looking starting pitchers available in free agency, and they're not shy about spending.

But would I go for Arenado if he's available? For sure.

This is kinda where I sit too.  I don't see them tearing it down completely.  I'd be pretty surprised to see Goldschmidt dealt, even more so for Arenado.  And I'd believe the sky is falling if they dealt both.

The thing with their pitching is that they're typically the one dealing it rather than bringing it in.  They've been pretty good at developing pitchers for a while, but it appears that injuries have taken their toll on their pitching core.  

[nicksaviking]

58 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

This is kinda where I sit too.  I don't see them tearing it down completely.  I'd be pretty surprised to see Goldschmidt dealt, even more so for Arenado.  And I'd believe the sky is falling if they dealt both.

The thing with their pitching is that they're typically the one dealing it rather than bringing it in.  They've been pretty good at developing pitchers for a while, but it appears that injuries have taken their toll on their pitching core.  

Yeah. The Cardinals always seem to have these HOF/legacy types and I don't think they've dealt one since 2003 when they traded JD Drew, Tino Martinez and Scott Rolen in the same offseason. Whether they have them for two years, or 20 years, guys like Jim Edmonds, Albert Pujols, Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Larry Walker, Yadier Molina, Troy Glaus, Matt Holliday, Lance Berkman, Carlos Beltran, Lance Lynn, Matt Carpenter or Marcell Ozuna always leave or retire when their contract is done, not before.

Also, dang, that list makes me jealous.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I really can't imagine this would happen, but I would happily deal Miranda and Larnach/Julien for Arenado.  If Lewis moves over to 2B, then he takes over there long term and you don't need Julien.  If everyone (Polanco, Lewis) is healthy, you still are one man long, but that doesn't seem like an imminent situation.  I have a feeling that they won't care much about a returning hitter, so which other pitcher could you send?  SWR? Varland? Headrick? Festa?

Is there any chance that this works on their end?  Not sure, but it would certainly help the Twins. 

[Cap'n Piranha]

I pass.

Arenado's walk rate is the lowest it's been since 2015.  His k rate is the highest it's ever been.  His ISO is the lowest (save 2020) it's been since 2014.  He makes more soft contact than league average.  He's chasing more, but swinging at balls in the zone less.  He's making less contact, despite getting more pitches in the zone, and he's swinging and missing more.  At least according to fangraphs, he's been clearly worse defensively across the board (for what those metrics are worth-having not watched a single Cardinals game this year, I have no other source of evaluation).

That all sounds to me like an aging, declining, very expensive player (even with COL paying $4M/year, he's $31M next year, $28M in 2025, $23M in 2026, although only $11M in 2027); the Twins might already have one of those in Correa, so to have those two eating up $50M+ for the next 3 years is a big risk if they both continue to decline from their late-2010's heydays.

Now if the Cardinals wanted to eat most of the contract and take back Miranda and a low A flier?  I could possibly get on board, but I have no idea why STL would do that.

[nicksaviking]

6 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

I pass.

Arenado's walk rate is the lowest it's been since 2015.  His k rate is the highest it's ever been.  His ISO is the lowest (save 2020) it's been since 2014.  He makes more soft contact than league average.  He's chasing more, but swinging at balls in the zone less.  He's making less contact, despite getting more pitches in the zone, and he's swinging and missing more.  At least according to fangraphs, he's been clearly worse defensively across the board (for what those metrics are worth-having not watched a single Cardinals game this year, I have no other source of evaluation).

That all sounds to me like an aging, declining, very expensive player (even with COL paying $4M/year, he's $31M next year, $28M in 2025, $23M in 2026, although only $11M in 2027); the Twins might already have one of those in Correa, so to have those two eating up $50M+ for the next 3 years is a big risk if they both continue to decline from their late-2010's heydays.

Now if the Cardinals wanted to eat most of the contract and take back Miranda and a low A flier?  I could possibly get on board, but I have no idea why STL would do that.

I'd still trade for him, but good research.

[notoriousgod71]

I would guess St Louis will be contending again next season if they keep them both.

[jkcarew]

The “don’t want to play center” with Lewis is a problem. And it will eventually hurt his value if it doesn’t change.
 

It’s pretty damning that no matter what you do, you still have Buxton DH’ing, and MAT in center. Best case scenario (offensively) is you put Lewis in a corner OF spot (if he blesses the club with his willingness), and you added Arenado AB’s at the expense of Castro and/or Kepler AB’s. That’s good. Is it enough to make the club legit offensively. Doubtful.

On the other hand, if you do the above, plus replace MAT’s AB’s with Buxton in CF…AND you then give a bunch more AB’s to Julien without compromising the defense (and Jeffers some) at DH…now maybe you have something.

I’d be very interested in Arenado based on the likelihood that he has at least a couple real good years remaining. But, it would depend on the price and/or the willingness to solve or at least steps to TRY to mitigate the suboptimization of the roster, which looks more ridiculous by the day. 

My bet is Saint Louis will dangle Arenado in case someone looses their mind and offers a kings ransom, but I doubt they’re very motivated…simply due to their track record of knowing what they’re doing.

[Craig Arko]

 Clearly CF at Target Field is cursed. We should be looking into an exorcism before asking anybody else to risk damnation there. 

[dxpavelka]

2 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I know this thread is about Arenado, but can somebody please explain to me whey Kepler and Lewis refuse to play CF?  Players are being paid to play and should do whatever the team asks them to do.  If I am a teammate, I'd be ticked off at my teammate for not doing what the team needs to win.  Very frustrating.

Not quite sure where this "Kepler & Lewis refuse to play CF" noise is coming from.  I've heard no such thing.  I'm sure we might be able to guess that Lewis might be a bit gun shy about playing there since he got hurt there last year but I've not heard on thing about him "refusing" to play there.  Same with Kepler.  I've never heard anything about either one not being willing to do whatever they might be asked to do.  If I'm missing something I'd love know what it is.  Other than random fans talking S$@#!

[Squirrel]

5 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Not quite sure where this "Kepler & Lewis refuse to play CF" noise is coming from.  I've heard no such thing.  I'm sure we might be able to guess that Lewis might be a bit gun shy about playing there since he got hurt there last year but I've not heard on thing about him "refusing" to play there.  Same with Kepler.  I've never heard anything about either one not being willing to do whatever they might be asked to do.  If I'm missing something I'd love know what it is.  Other than random fans talking S$@#!

Lewis’ agent said something early this season or during ST about him not playing in the OF. Don’t remember the exact quote but it was clear that that wasn’t an option. Not sure if it was for this season or for always but the Twins have honored that. And Kepler has stated numerous times about not liking CF and that he’s uncomfortable out there. I don’t think either player has stated outright or publicly that they refuse to play CF but it’s been clear they don’t want to and those wishes have been honored.

[weitz41]

It would depend on who we would have to part with to bring him onboard. I'd guess a package that starts with Ober. They shouldn't have much interest in our position players. They're dealing with too many young position players as is. So probably a no ty in the end.

 

[Riverbrian]

42 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

Lewis’ agent said something early this season or during ST about him not playing in the OF. Don’t remember the exact quote but it was clear that that wasn’t an option. Not sure if it was for this season or for always but the Twins have honored that. And Kepler has stated numerous times about not liking CF and that he’s uncomfortable out there. I don’t think either player has stated outright or publicly that they refuse to play CF but it’s been clear they don’t want to and those wishes have been honored.

They don't have to state it publicly. It's out there. 

Let's say the Twins trade for Nolan Arenado. 

Does the agent of Royce Lewis than say my client would rather ride the bench than play OF? 

Royce Lewis has 135 major league AB's. Royce Lewis will not be a free agent until 2029.

Max Kepler is a couple of months from signing a minor league contract. 

I must be getting old but back in my day... People actually accomplished stuff before they were honored. 

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

14 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

I pass.

Arenado's walk rate is the lowest it's been since 2015.  His k rate is the highest it's ever been.  His ISO is the lowest (save 2020) it's been since 2014.  He makes more soft contact than league average.  He's chasing more, but swinging at balls in the zone less.  He's making less contact, despite getting more pitches in the zone, and he's swinging and missing more.  At least according to fangraphs, he's been clearly worse defensively across the board (for what those metrics are worth-having not watched a single Cardinals game this year, I have no other source of evaluation).

That all sounds to me like an aging, declining, very expensive player (even with COL paying $4M/year, he's $31M next year, $28M in 2025, $23M in 2026, although only $11M in 2027); the Twins might already have one of those in Correa, so to have those two eating up $50M+ for the next 3 years is a big risk if they both continue to decline from their late-2010's heydays.

Now if the Cardinals wanted to eat most of the contract and take back Miranda and a low A flier?  I could possibly get on board, but I have no idea why STL would do that.

Thank you for this excellent research. 

[dxpavelka]

1 hour ago, Squirrel said:

Lewis’ agent said something early this season or during ST about him not playing in the OF. Don’t remember the exact quote but it was clear that that wasn’t an option. Not sure if it was for this season or for always but the Twins have honored that. And Kepler has stated numerous times about not liking CF and that he’s uncomfortable out there. I don’t think either player has stated outright or publicly that they refuse to play CF but it’s been clear they don’t want to and those wishes have been honored.

All fine and dandy but if the team wants one of them in CF I'm willing to bet it ends up happening.  Besides, I fairly certain most fans on this site would be highly upset if Kepler played were in a position which impeded his departure.

 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

20 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'd be for this, but I think the price will be too high. But it sure would help the team until Lewis returns, at which point what do you do with Lewis, if he refuses to play CF (sure would be nice to have him there instead of Taylor). That's a lot more runs if those two things happen......

Miranda and a corner OF from AAA and a middling prospect? IF they can get Lewis to move to the OF, I do that all day. 

Interesting regarding Lewis and while I get where he's coming from, this just solidifies what a joke the front office is. Lewis might turn into a franchise player. But he is no where near the point where he should be dictating the position that he plays. If the Twins had a legitimate opportunity to get Arenado, they shouldn't think twice about it - go ahead and make a trade. Let the dust clear afterwards and figure things out with Lewis.

[USAFChief]

3 hours ago, Squirrel said:

Lewis’ agent said something early this season or during ST about him not playing in the OF. Don’t remember the exact quote but it was clear that that wasn’t an option. Not sure if it was for this season or for always but the Twins have honored that. And Kepler has stated numerous times about not liking CF and that he’s uncomfortable out there. I don’t think either player has stated outright or publicly that they refuse to play CF but it’s been clear they don’t want to and those wishes have been honored.

Off topic, but can someone find this quote from his agent? Not saying it's not out there, but I can't find it. I do remember the TWINS saying Lewis would be playing 3rd in his rehab, which seemed to be a reaction to Miranda's struggles more than anything. 

[chpettit19]

I'm in the same spot here as I am with the Goldy trade ideas. I love it, but I don't see the fit. The Cards need pitching, and I don't think the Twins have the prospect arms to make this kind of deal happen. I'd love Arenado on the Twins, though. Should've beat that terrible Cards package they sent to Colorado in the first place.

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Off topic, but can someone find this quote from his agent? Not saying it's not out there, but I can't find it. I do remember the TWINS saying Lewis would be playing 3rd in his rehab, which seemed to be a reaction to Miranda's struggles more than anything. 

https://www.twincities.com/2023/05/15/royce-lewis-takes-next-step-forward-in-rehab-assignment/
I think his comments are pretty clear that he doesn’t want Royce playing the OF. To me that doesn’t mean ever and forever, but I don’t think it will happen this season. I don’t know if it was a response to the Twins saying he’d be in the IF or if discussions were had behind the scenes. Kinda sounds like the latter, not that Boras was dictating anything, but I could see him having discussions with the Twins in the best interests of his client. Again, to me, doesn’t say to me that Lewis is forever an infielder, but I don’t think he’s going to spend any time in the OF this season. Next season is a different story.

[Squirrel]

2 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

All fine and dandy but if the team wants one of them in CF I'm willing to bet it ends up happening.  Besides, I fairly certain most fans on this site would be highly upset if Kepler played were in a position which impeded his departure.

 

Imo, if we see either in CF this season, it will be Kepler, but defensively, at this point in his career, I don’t think it would be good. And I don’t think we see Lewis in CF at all this season, however, I wouldn’t be surprised if during the off-season something comes of that. 

[TopGunn#22]

Here's a deal that I would propose because as others have pointed out, the Cards need pitching.   Using BBTV's:

Twins Get:  Arenado 3B  -11.6 value  32 y/o   Goldschmidt 1B  21.1 value  35 y/o and CASH to lower Arenado's cost and mitigate his negative value.  The cash contribution puts the Twins Total Value acquired at 24.50

Cards Get:  L. Varland RHSP 10.3  Josh Winder RHP  5.8  Miranda 3B/1B  8.9   Total value:  25.00.

These two bats would instantly upgrade the Twins offense and we'd have Goldy & Noley for all of 2024.  We haven't touched anyone in our current starting rotation.  Bullpen help would still be needed.  Maybe the deal could be expanded slightly to include a BP piece the Cards would be willing to part with.  But I would also contend that this type of deal would lead to other deals. 

This is what I'm talking about when I urge that the Twins should be buyers as well as sellers.  We need to remake the composition of our roster.  Polanco would be at the top of my list before his value completely craters (it's currently at 7.3).  Gallo  2.7   Kepler 1.2  Theilbar 12.7, Larnach 16.4,  Solano 2.4, Winder 5.8, should ALL be considered in various forms of buying or selling type of trades.  What else could we add if we parted with some of these players?

Adding Goldy & Arenado means Lewis is playing 2B and/or CF (or certainly LF).  Kirilloff moves to RF fulltime.  Julien is playing 2B when Lewis isn't and maybe DH'ing a bit more too.  Julien should also get a look in LF.  

Possible Lineup:  (assuming Buxton can only play DH)

Julien 2B (Farmer comes in for defense 7th inning)

Goldy 1B

Kirilloff RF   (the power isn't there yet, but he gets on base considtently)

Arenado 3B

Correa  SS (counting on a better 2nd half of the season)

Lewis  LF (when he returns)  2B full time if an OF also acquired at deadline moving Julien to DH

Buxton  DH

Jeffers  C

Kepler/MAT CF  (either or both should be moved so acquiring a Bellinger type would be low cost and necessary).

That's a MUCH better lineup than what we currently have obviously.  This lineup has some positional flexibility even if Lewis doesn't play OF but other moves would be needed.

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Off topic, but can someone find this quote from his agent? Not saying it's not out there, but I can't find it. I do remember the TWINS saying Lewis would be playing 3rd in his rehab, which seemed to be a reaction to Miranda's struggles more than anything. 

I most distinctly remember hearing it from Gleeman, who is generally an accurate source. As for seeing it in writing... I'm not sure. I think I've seen it somewhere but given how much media I consume, I could absolutely be making that up in my head.

[Squirrel]

7 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I most distinctly remember hearing it from Gleeman, who is generally an accurate source. As for seeing it in writing... I'm not sure. I think I've seen it somewhere but given how much media I consume, I could absolutely be making that up in my head.

I posted a link above

[Parfigliano]

5 hours ago, Squirrel said:

Lewis’ agent said something early this season or during ST about him not playing in the OF. Don’t remember the exact quote but it was clear that that wasn’t an option. Not sure if it was for this season or for always but the Twins have honored that. And Kepler has stated numerous times about not liking CF and that he’s uncomfortable out there. I don’t think either player has stated outright or publicly that they refuse to play CF but it’s been clear they don’t want to and those wishes have been honored.

Time to un-honor Kepler's wishes about CF and pencil him in multiple games per week.