The Twins Overplayed Their Hand With Max Kepler

[Ted Schwerzler]

More than 60 games into the 2023 season it seems as though players are settling in, and the landscape of the sport is starting to take shape. No matter how drastic the rules have changed, one thing remains constant; Max Kepler is holding back the Twins.

 

Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

This offseason it appeared that Max Kepler’s days in Minnesota were numbered. Going into 2022, it could have been argued that the time to trade him had presented itself, but never more did it feel necessary than this winter. Despite a banning of the shift, expecting the German native to reinvent who he is as a player seemed lofty at best.

There were stories written about Kepler going to Paris in hopes of finding himself. There was a discussion that the limiting of defensive shifting would help his average. The reality though, is that Kepler remains the same flawed player he has always been.

Aside from 2019, when the Twins turned into the Bomba Squad and Rob Manfred gave us the joys of a juiced baseball, Kepler has struggled to be an average producer in the lineup. His current career 100 OPS+ puts him at exactly replacement level, and that’s propped up by the 123 OPS+ he generated in 2019.

In the four seasons since 2019, Kepler has owned a 94 OPS+ with a .307 on-base percentage. His approach at the dish is one that simply does not work, and it’s made the entirety of his value be derived from defense. An inability to put lift on the ball, his insistence to roll ground balls to the second baseman is as guaranteed of an out as there is.

Now, rather than trading Kepler for whatever value there was this offseason, he’s little more than a boat anchor taking the Twins down with him.

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine suggested that they had suitors for Kepler this winter, but it seemed the return wasn’t up to the standards they saw as a fair return. Having dipped into the negative numbers for fWAR, Kepler’s defensive value isn’t even providing a net-positive impact at this point for Minnesota. If he could have generated a relief pitcher or some sort of a flier this offseason, that’s now even less likely.

Making $8.5 million in the final year of his extension (with a $1 million buyout for 2024), the Twins fumbled an opportunity to allocate those funds elsewhere. Had Kepler been traded, the assumption would be that another team is taking on that contract, and Rocco Baldelli’s roster may have had additional opportunity to supplement.

With the Twins holding onto Kepler, they never moved those dollars to another asset, and his presence is actively stopping Matt Wallner from making a leap. Despite a strong showing in a brief cameo with Minnesota this year, and continued dominance at Triple-A for the Saints, Wallner must watch patiently as Kepler keeps his roster opportunity at bay.

Over the weekend, it didn’t go unnoticed that Kepler was benched across multiple games, and while right-handed pitchers were on the mound. Alex Kirilloff manned right field at times, and the Twins basically defined Kepler as little more than a defensive replacement. When he misplayed a Javier Baez triple on Sunday, only to casually lob the ball back in, the effort then becomes a question.

The reasons for which Kepler remains on the Minnesota roster are likely few and far between. After an offseason of opportunity, it seems as though an attempt to save face could be the culprit. Overplaying their hand, the Twins may have had a higher belief in Kepler despite what the market was telling them, and now they are watching it all go belly up right in front of their eyes.

Whether by a DFA, release, or unlikely trade, finding a way to move on from Kepler at this point is a must. Wallner presents an opportunity for a team treading water to take a step forward, and ripping off the band-aid has to happen sooner rather than later. Minnesota made a mistake this winter, and it only gets worse the longer they let it take place.

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[mikelink45]

It is so obvious to everyone on twin's daily and probably everyone everywhere else and that we can only assume that the front office has a tremendous stubborn streak and does not like to admit the mistake. 

[dberthia]

Seems like this front office displays little accountability with its consistently under-performing players- until it's literally years past the time they should've been jettisoned.

[roger]

It is highly likely Keps run with the Twins will soon come to an end.  Will that be at the trade deadline, maybe, more likely not.  Will it be at the end of the season, probably.  But as long as he is a Twin, there is a chance, albeit tiny, that he is back next year.

So with the likelihood that Max will be leaving either soon or at year end, why do writers like you continue to pile on.  Does a week go by without someone on this site writing a negative article about Max?  Heck, this is the second in the last 24 hours.  Everyone in the Twins universe knows Max hasn't been hitting for a long time.

He is a heck of a defensive right fielder and that ball the other night was a crazy bounce that I don't think anyone could have played right.  Will he build on the last couple games and put a charge into the Twins for the rest of the year?  Probably not.  But Max has been a class act who I for one am happy was a Twins for these last whatever years.  And should the Twins move on from him at year end, I wouldn't be surprised if Max retires at a very young age.

[D.C Twins]

Yes...yes they did...

[Winston Smith]

15 minutes ago, roger said:

It is highly likely Keps run with the Twins will soon come to an end.  Will that be at the trade deadline, maybe, more likely not.  Will it be at the end of the season, probably.  But as long as he is a Twin, there is a chance, albeit tiny, that he is back next year.

So with the likelihood that Max will be leaving either soon or at year end, why do writers like you continue to pile on.  Does a week go by without someone on this site writing a negative article about Max?  Heck, this is the second in the last 24 hours.  Everyone in the Twins universe knows Max hasn't been hitting for a long time.

He is a heck of a defensive right fielder and that ball the other night was a crazy bounce that I don't think anyone could have played right.  Will he build on the last couple games and put a charge into the Twins for the rest of the year?  Probably not.  But Max has been a class act who I for one am happy was a Twins for these last whatever years.  And should the Twins move on from him at year end, I wouldn't be surprised if Max retires at a very young age.

After the homerun last night he will be signing an extension soon.

[RpR]

If Wallner was good enough for the majors he would be up; he may earn his way up, or he may not.

[August J Gloop]

Kepler is better right now than he was at the end of last year. Would you trade for him now? Of course not. It's just fantasy land stuff to think they really had any offer that wasn't garbage. Gotta stop telling yourself any different. It can and should be argued they should just eat his contract and let him go. Larnach is as good, if not better and is would only add 400K to the total or whatever the prorated rest of the season looks like. Gallo out for Wallner. Might as well see what you got there. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

I'm with August. Nothing against Kepler or Gallo, they are what they are. They're unlikely to improve by much if at all over the course of the season. Occasional good games aside, neither is really helping this team have a chance win on a consistent basis. More of ten than not, they are getting in the way of winning. I would at least lose one of them so Wallner can get a shot. Frankly, if Rocco is willing to treat Kepler as a 4th OF/defensive replacement, start  2 games a week guy - which is what the really is - I would prefer to lose Gallo. 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

If Wallner was good enough for the majors he would be up; he may earn his way up, or he may not.

What does he need to do in the minors to show he's "good enough for the majors?" How does he "earn his way up?"

What does Kepler have to do in the majors to show he's not good enough for the majors? I know you love your veterans, but if one of the young guys were playing like Kepler has been for the last 3 years you'd be talking about how they aren't good enough for the majors, and should go back to the minors. Are the standards different for Kepler? Why?

[MMMordabito]

Yawn.  The Kepler whining is getting so old.

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, RpR said:

If Wallner was good enough for the majors he would be up; he may earn his way up, or he may not.

If Wallner was good enough for the majors... whose spot would he take? 

[DocBauer]

I GET holding on to Kepler since Kirilloff and Larnach were coming off surgery and Wallner...despite a tremendous 2022...only had a half season at AAA. I think he should have been moved for "whatever", but I can still GET why he was brought back.

But after signing Gallo, I absolutely would have moved Kepler during the offseason and trusted a little hope and faith in my collection of prospects to fill his spot. Period. There was even the possibility of Gordon taking on a more full time role. Additionally, there were a handful of AAAA types to give a shot to if everything fell apart that could potentially provide similar offense to the downturning Kepler.

There just wasn't a "depth" problem. Further, his $8M could have been used to take a shot at a solid pen arm. If you add Pagan to the "no way back" option, they would have had about $12M to spend elsewhere, very likely the pen, for a COUPLE of shots. 

Considering how volatile FA BP options are, would there be any guarantee the arm, or arms, they brought on board would be great? Absolutely not. And I don't think the Twins pen has been as bad as others feel. But why Pagan vs a shot for someone better? Why trust/hope for Alcala...who I still think might turn out...vs a veteran arm who might turn out? 

The Twins got a gift in Stewart who looks very good as a 6-7th inning arm who has 8th inning potential. They MIGHT have gotten a smaller gift in DeLeon who might stay healthy now in the pen and reach some of his previous promise as a solid middle man. Those two help mitigate the underperformance and now injury to Alcala and Lopez. But building a roster is about utilizing ALL of your available resources, both player and payroll. They should have TRUSTED in their prospects and younger players and depth in the OF. They should have TRUSTED in their scouts to bring in a pen arm, or two, to make at least one smart addition that would work out. 

Instead, they kept the declining Kepler and volatile Pagan instead or allocating their resources and TRUST elsewhere. And despite some good moves, the FO had misguided blinders on in regard to both of those players.

As I stated in another post, when something isn't working, and continues to not work, it's time to change things up. It's too late now to change what SHOULD have been done. Now it's about correcting mistakes mid year. That means moving on from Kepler ASAP, possibly Gallo in the near future, and probably having to add a pen arm at the deadline, unless someone else steps forward before then.

 

[Linus]

6 hours ago, RpR said:

If Wallner was good enough for the majors he would be up; he may earn his way up, or he may not.

And what would you like Wallner to do show he deserves a shot?

[dxpavelka]

yawn

 

[RpR]

8 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

What does he need to do in the minors to show he's "good enough for the majors?" How does he "earn his way up?"

What does Kepler have to do in the majors to show he's not good enough for the majors? I know you love your veterans, but if one of the young guys were playing like Kepler has been for the last 3 years you'd be talking about how they aren't good enough for the majors, and should go back to the minors. Are the standards different for Kepler? Why?

Kepler is a well above average fielder; Wallner is a below average fielder, simple as that.

Hitting well in the minors is not the yellow brick road to the majors.

[RpR]

8 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

If Wallner was good enough for the majors... whose spot would he take? 

If, if, if....

[RpR]

3 hours ago, Linus said:

And what would you like Wallner to do show he deserves a shot?

Only the Twins coaches can answer that.

[RpR]

9 hours ago, August J Gloop said:

Kepler is better right now than he was at the end of last year. Would you trade for him now? Of course not. It's just fantasy land stuff to think they really had any offer that wasn't garbage. Gotta stop telling yourself any different. It can and should be argued they should just eat his contract and let him go. Larnach is as good, if not better and is would only add 400K to the total or whatever the prorated rest of the season looks like. Gallo out for Wallner. Might as well see what you got there. 

If Larnach was that good he would not be in St.Paul.

[Jocko87]

13 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

It is so obvious to everyone on twin's daily and probably everyone everywhere else and that we can only assume that the front office has a tremendous stubborn streak and does not like to admit the mistake. 

I mean, how very Minnesota of them.  My inner (outer) Norwegian bachelor farmer approves.

10 hours ago, RpR said:

If Wallner was good enough for the majors he would be up; he may earn his way up, or he may not.

Ninja'd

On topic, the FO made a bet this off season and lost.  I get the logic of being sure Wallner, Larnach, AK et al are ready, there was a lot of risk there.  I don't hate it, and now its time to move on.  Its not a big deal except that he has 15 years in the organization.  I don't mind the loyalty either.  It could have gone the other way and the FO would be geniuses.

Now they will be forced to pickup salary to get a contributor in return and maybe throw in another piece as well to make it happen.  No big deal, only money.  I don't see a DFA coming, it would fly in the face of everything we think we know about why he is still here. 

Some GM somewhere, said something like 2 months evaluate, two months to adjust, two months to ride the wave.  We are in the second stage. 

[Eris]

I think most of the entire team is disappointing, not just Kepler. It is looking like total system failure for most of the hitters. Just looked up fWAR. Buxton remains the Twins leader with 0.9 which ranks at about 130th in MLB. (Or on average each team has 4 players who have had more production than the Twins best position player). Buxton’s 0.9 fWAR hasn’t moved in about 6 weeks. 

[chpettit19]

7 hours ago, RpR said:

Kepler is a well above average fielder; Wallner is a below average fielder, simple as that.

Hitting well in the minors is not the yellow brick road to the majors.

Simple as that? There's not more to it? We don't care what kind of overall player he is, just that he has historically been a "well above average fielder?" Don't care that he's a well below average hitter now? We also don't care that he hasn't been a well above average fielder this year? This year he's been a well below average hitter, and an average fielder. But Wallner is a below average fielder so he doesn't deserve a shot. I don't see how that math works out.

Yeah, hitting well in the minors is pretty much the yellow brick road to the majors. For position players, there's nothing more important, and it's what the vast majority of promotion decisions are built on. Especially if you play a corner position.

[August J Gloop]

Wallner and Larnach are not in the minors because they are inferior fielders to Gallo and Kepler. They are there because ownership is not ready to move on from their contracts / pay them to play for the opposition. There is little chance that right now Larnach would be worse that Kep on either side of the ball. He's faster, younger and actually seems to care. And while I agree that Wallner is behind Gallo and Kep, his arm will make up for a fair bit of his range limitations. And Wallner actually is pretty fast, so eventually his D could be a plus.

There really isn't any reason now to have those two continue at AAA while two vets with limited upside struggle with a .500 club. Another possibility would be to DFA Kep and bring up Miranda or Williams and have a platoon at first with Kirilloff. Let Gallo be everyday RF for another month and if he doesn't get it going, replace him with Wallner or Larnach, whoever is still raking at AAA. 

[roger]

14 hours ago, Linus said:

And what would you like Wallner to do show he deserves a shot?

I'll answer that.  I want to see him improve his defense a lot.  I haven't seen him play one inning at AAA and maybe he has improved, I don't know.  And maybe the few games I saw on tv late last year were plays he normally wouldn't blow.  I know he has a cannon for an arm, but letting ground balls go thru his legs doesn't cut it in high school, much less the Twins.

[HokieRif]

I need a refresher.  Kepler's contract was for 5 years and concludes at the end of this season, with a club option (@ $10M) for an additional season, right?  Based on my non-existent experience as a GM, isn't this about waiting for another team to lose a key player and now needing bench strength which will then start the trade engine?  This would easily be a rental for whoever would pick him up, but if all we get back in return in a couple AA prospects then its worth the deal.  We add a couple to the roster in the minors, Wallner slides up, and we've turned the page.

[Valdespino]

He has three HR’s in the last week.

[Twodogs]

What's interesting to me is that I totally understand all of the Kepler hate, but in 164 AB's he's hitting .207 with 10 HR's.  in 217 AB's Buck is hitting .207 with 13 HR's and Buck can no longer play in the field.  So I don't quite understand how Buck gets a pass and Kep gets all of the hate.  I don't live in Minnesota, grew up in that area, but I live in Cali and everyone I talk to, (who are obviously outsiders looking in because they know I'm a Twins fan), say the stupidest thing that they all think the Twins did is resign Buck to a big contract.  None of these outsiders, (non Twins fans), even talk about Kepler.  They all talk about how Buxton is holding the Twins back, now he's a DH who hits .200 and can't cant play the field.  These are reputable baseball people too, many of the people I deal with on a daily basis are college baseball coaches.  So yeah, Kep has not been good this year, but neither has Buck, but I don't really hear any negativity towards him from this board.  But people who are not from the Twins area are saying that Buxton is sinking the Twins ship?  

 

Most of the people I talk to say that Correa was a dumb signing too, especially with Lewis in the fold, but I get that Lewis is from Cali and many of these people are pulling for him.