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This offseason it appeared that Max Kepler’s days in Minnesota were numbered. Going into 2022, it could have been argued that the time to trade him had presented itself, but never more did it feel necessary than this winter. Despite a banning of the shift, expecting the German native to reinvent who he is as a player seemed lofty at best.
There were stories written about Kepler going to Paris in hopes of finding himself. There was a discussion that the limiting of defensive shifting would help his average. The reality though, is that Kepler remains the same flawed player he has always been.
Aside from 2019, when the Twins turned into the Bomba Squad and Rob Manfred gave us the joys of a juiced baseball, Kepler has struggled to be an average producer in the lineup. His current career 100 OPS+ puts him at exactly replacement level, and that’s propped up by the 123 OPS+ he generated in 2019.
In the four seasons since 2019, Kepler has owned a 94 OPS+ with a .307 on-base percentage. His approach at the dish is one that simply does not work, and it’s made the entirety of his value be derived from defense. An inability to put lift on the ball, his insistence to roll ground balls to the second baseman is as guaranteed of an out as there is.
Now, rather than trading Kepler for whatever value there was this offseason, he’s little more than a boat anchor taking the Twins down with him.
Derek Falvey and Thad Levine suggested that they had suitors for Kepler this winter, but it seemed the return wasn’t up to the standards they saw as a fair return. Having dipped into the negative numbers for fWAR, Kepler’s defensive value isn’t even providing a net-positive impact at this point for Minnesota. If he could have generated a relief pitcher or some sort of a flier this offseason, that’s now even less likely.
Making $8.5 million in the final year of his extension (with a $1 million buyout for 2024), the Twins fumbled an opportunity to allocate those funds elsewhere. Had Kepler been traded, the assumption would be that another team is taking on that contract, and Rocco Baldelli’s roster may have had additional opportunity to supplement.
With the Twins holding onto Kepler, they never moved those dollars to another asset, and his presence is actively stopping Matt Wallner from making a leap. Despite a strong showing in a brief cameo with Minnesota this year, and continued dominance at Triple-A for the Saints, Wallner must watch patiently as Kepler keeps his roster opportunity at bay.
Over the weekend, it didn’t go unnoticed that Kepler was benched across multiple games, and while right-handed pitchers were on the mound. Alex Kirilloff manned right field at times, and the Twins basically defined Kepler as little more than a defensive replacement. When he misplayed a Javier Baez triple on Sunday, only to casually lob the ball back in, the effort then becomes a question.
The reasons for which Kepler remains on the Minnesota roster are likely few and far between. After an offseason of opportunity, it seems as though an attempt to save face could be the culprit. Overplaying their hand, the Twins may have had a higher belief in Kepler despite what the market was telling them, and now they are watching it all go belly up right in front of their eyes.
Whether by a DFA, release, or unlikely trade, finding a way to move on from Kepler at this point is a must. Wallner presents an opportunity for a team treading water to take a step forward, and ripping off the band-aid has to happen sooner rather than later. Minnesota made a mistake this winter, and it only gets worse the longer they let it take place.
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