Rumor: Tyler Mahle to undergo Tommy John Surgery

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 hour ago, CRF said:

First Paddack...now Mahle. Not the best luck when it comes to trading for pitchers. I suppose we should consider ourselves lucky that Lopez doesn't seem to be heading down this road. 

That ignores Gray, Lopez and Ryan.   Also part of the reason we got Paddack as cheap as we did was because of the elbow concern.  

[Craig Arko]

I just feel badly for the kid (and the team) and hope he bounces back, here or elsewhere. Seemed to be talented when healthy.

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, CoasterProductions said:

Per MLB Trade Rumors, Tyler Mahle will undergo Tommy John surgery and is expected to miss all of this year and part of next year.

Do the Twins re-sign him to an extension in hopes he'll take the free rehab facilities in trade for a year of pitching in 2025?

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/05/tyler-mahle-tommy-john-surgery-twins.html

 

View full rumor

 

Please don’t use the rumor function for actual news. Just post it. Thanks.

[LastOnePicked]

No thank you to resigning. Players who have had TJ surgery are much more likely to experience another injury later on. Long past time for this FO to prove their ability to draft and develop impact arms in the rotation.

[tony&rodney]

The Twins made a trade for Mahle in hopes he would be a difference both last year and this season. Mahle made his living with a variety of pitches located in the right place. While not strictly a finesse pitcher .Mahle never was a power arm. His return will come with hiccups as he must learn to harness his stuff in a slow process. I wish him luck, but there is no reason to spend more money on that shoulder and elbow. 

Trades are a part of baseball and if a team never takes those opportunities, the organization is handicapped. We all loved Arraez but right now Pablo Lopez is more than a good return as he heads our rotation. Turn the page and look for the next opportunity for a trade.

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, Musk21 said:

This is an interesting article about Paddack when looking at timelines as both Paddack and Mahle will have had their procedures done in May (Paddack in 22, Mahle in 23).

https://theathletic.com/4213207/2023/02/17/chris-paddack-contract-extension-surgery/

Paddack "likes having the carrot of potentially pitching for a team in a pennant race in September."

Some differences though include:

• This was Paddack's second operation, although this consisted of an internal brace instead of undergoing a second full Tommy John surgery.
• Because this is his 2nd elbow surgery, Paddack is taking a conservative approach and performing each step in his rehab three months later than normal at the advice of Dr. Keith Meister.

 

I haven't (yet) bought the Athletic subscription, but there are a lot of parallels. 

So I'll take that a step further and say...

• No need to do anything now.
• Wait until the offseason to make a tender/non-tender decision, which allows for incorporating prospect progress, midseason trades and Rule 5 considerations in addition to the progress they are seeing in his rehab.
• If tendered, revisit the extension conversation next spring like they did with Paddack. 

There's no need to rush into any decisions when they got months to make choices.

And as I type that scenario, it adds to my encouragement on how they feel about the progress for Paddack in his rehab. He's apparently checked the box on all three counts, so hopefully that good news continues. 

 

 

[Original_JB]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

The Twins and Yankees continue to be in an arms race over who made the biggest mistake of the 2022 trade deadline: Mahle vs. Montas.

Rodon? (oh wait, he was a FA).

Edited May 11, 2023 by Original_JB
corrected myself.

[twins_89]

1 hour ago, CRF said:

First Paddack...now Mahle. Not the best luck when it comes to trading for pitchers. I suppose we should consider ourselves lucky that Lopez doesn't seem to be heading down this road. 

 

First was Maeda. Mahle is the 3rd starter the Twins have traded for that has needed Tommy John in the last 2 years.

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Sunk cost fallacy.

Value buy opportunity.

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

An extension might or might not be the right course, but what we gave up for him has no bearing.  That's the Sunk Cost Fallacy in action.

Apart from that, I know we're always hopeful that TJS has the guy back and productive in a year, but just going from memory it doesn't seem to work out that way.  Rehab starts after a certain point and the player is throwing in earnest from the mound after a year or so, but that's not the same as being ready to win games like he used to.  Maeken would be the current example on our roster for that.

So if he works real hard, throwing for real at St Paul 14 months from now, maybe he's good to go for 2025.  If I'm negotiating, I want a commitment to 2025-26 both, and at not very much money relative to free agents.  His hopes of a big payday* are gone, whether the Twins are in the picture or not.  Guaranteeing him millions of dollars should get the team something really significant in return.

* relative to what he could have commanded on the open market before this happened

The trade value doesn't matter in the decision to resign him but resigning him and flipping for prospects or getting something on the mound does help define the scorecard on the trade down the road.  They won't get what they wanted but can still get something out of the deal.  We are far from knowing who won this deal.  CES and Steer are still one league wide adjustment from Mirandaing their way back to AAA.  Both teams might lose. 

I would resign on a pure asset control move and nothing to do with baseball.  A Paddock type deal would be great.  Doesn't break the bank and if one of them shows life in the arm flip them ASAP.  Functional SP with solid contracts are very valuable assets.  If they miss the 15m lost is not the worst thing,  The upside may be $60m value.

[Riverbrian]

A. We lost the trade. It happens, wasn't the first time... it won't be the last. The trade was made to improve a contending club. Buyers Buy... Sellers Sell. It's how it works. 

B. The future is what matters now... Steer and E-Strand have no bearing on weather Mahle is with us beyond this year. 

C. With his pending free agency after the season. Mahle should have been a light consideration in future plans before the injury. He should only be a minor league deal consideration now. Keep the farm pipeline clear of obstacles because it is starting to produce. The last thing we want is a veteran coming off injury that has to be released to dispose of.

D. If you want to bring in a vet starter... Aim higher. 

[ashbury]

27 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

I would resign on a pure asset control move and nothing to do with baseball. 

Not sure what "nothing to do with baseball" means, in regard to a baseball asset.    Fortunately the rest of what you said makes sense to me.  And every contract is an asset control move, when you come down to it.

If the upside is $60M worth of value (that's a lot of WAR but it's faintly possible as the ceiling) and lower but still appreciable values are also in the mix, then it becomes nearly an "expectation value" kind of physics/economics computation - probability times all the different outcomes, added up.  If that's above the $12M or so for a Paddack type of contract, then you offer it.

Of course Mahle himself has to want this contract, and not want instead to "bet on himself" as the saying goes.  Also, Paddack and Mahle are not very similar looking individuals, and the team might look at the two pitchers very differently when making such a decision.

But, and Brian alluded to this just above, there is an additional cost: the value of a 40-man roster spot over not just this off-season but also the next one.  Could that roster spot be used for something more valuable than the "expectation value" I just suggested be computed, minus the contract cost of that guarantee.  Maybe the roster spot is better used by protecting an additional Rule-5 candidate of our own, or drafting one ourselves, as just an example.

It's really complicated, in other words, and I'm sure the FO has very careful accounting practices that help them maintain the discipline to reach an answer they can be comfortable with.  At the moment, lacking information on how all the parties look at this, it's kind of a toss-up to me.  And then after all that, to circle back to your point about flipping the contract, that decision in turn comes down to whether they find the offer they receive to be better than just keeping him - assuming the trading partner sees value in Mahle, probably so would we.

[USAFChief]

Don't throw good money after bad. There's little to no benefit to any kind of contract. 

Trade turned out horribly, learn and move on.

[gman]

I think that Ober has established himself as a major league pitcher, just maybe not what level yet. Varland needs to do that. We know someone else will miss some time this year. When will Maeda be ready? Who is the next one up? I think that the next pitcher up will have a lot of impact on whether Malhe gets a 2-3 year deal from the Twins or someone. Because someone else will sign him.

[Mike Sixel]

13 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Don't throw good money after bad. There's little to no benefit to any kind of contract. 

Trade turned out horribly, learn and move on.

Agreed. 

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

Not sure what "nothing to do with baseball" means, in regard to a baseball asset.    Fortunately the rest of what you said makes sense to me.  And every contract is an asset control move, when you come down to it.

On field baseball.  Yes he will have to return to the field at some point but it’s a secondary reason.  Correa and the Mets is an example of a contract that had nothing to do with on field baseball. It was a pure asset strategy.  There would have been baseball involved but it was a business move.  

They may feel like chief, no value long term, and I wouldn’t blame them either. Most likely it comes down to how confident they are the arm will actually be fixed. 
 

If the medical staff thinks the arm will actually be fixed I would offer the Paddock deal as a business move. 

[Craig Arko]

Since there’s already a gamble being made on Paddack, I’d rather the dough be spent on a QO for Gray.

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

A. We lost the trade. It happens, wasn't the first time... it won't be the last. The trade was made to improve a contending club. Buyers Buy... Sellers Sell. It's how it works. 

B. The future is what matters now... Steer and E-Strand have no bearing on weather Mahle is with us beyond this year. 

C. With his pending free agency after the season. Mahle should have been a light consideration in future plans before the injury. He should only be a minor league deal consideration now. Keep the farm pipeline clear of obstacles because it is starting to produce. The last thing we want is a veteran coming off injury that has to be released to dispose of.

D. If you want to bring in a vet starter... Aim higher. 

I know Castillo was the biggest name available, but based on his numbers away from Cincinnati, Mahle was the guy I wanted most. I wanted nothing to do with Montas. Clearly I was wrong about Mahle, but I don't think I was the only one who felt that way. I don't think the problem was that they didn't aim high enough. 

Obviously there is a problem though. I like to roll the dice in my fantasy leagues with talented but injury prone guys, but clearly that's not a forever path in the real world. Probably need a different mentality than taking minimal monetary risks while dirking beer and talking trash with your buddies.

[RickOShea]

5 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Given that it's already approaching mid-May, I wouldn't worry about Mahle clogging up a rotation in 2024. The extension would have its eye on 2025.

For my 2 cents worth:  I don't believe you can say there is no room, when you talk about pitchers.  When there is no vacancy it's usually short lived.  

[Linus]

No way I extend him. He hasn’t been healthy in a while and not particularly effective for a while. Chalk it up to a trade that didn’t work out and move on. I’m not a fan of our FO but offer no criticism on this deal. They tried to push a contending team over the top which is the right move every time. 

[rwilfong86]

5 hours ago, Battle ur tail off said:

Do not under any circumstances extend him. It was his shoulder first when we traded for him. Now it is his elbow. If I am the GM, I cut my losses and move on. 

Yep, pitcher who was known damaged goods when they made the deal. Admit it was a mistake and move on and learn from the experience (wishful thinking).

[Brock Beauchamp]

39 minutes ago, RickOShea said:

For my 2 cents worth:  I don't believe you can say there is no room, when you talk about pitchers.  When there is no vacancy it's usually short lived.  

It almost always ends up being a non-issue within a week or two.

[wsnydes]

6 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

The Twins and Yankees continue to be in an arms race over who made the biggest mistake of the 2022 trade deadline: Mahle vs. Montas.

This team just can't beat the Yankees in anything, can they?

[wsnydes]

1 hour ago, Craig Arko said:

Since there’s already a gamble being made on Paddack, I’d rather the dough be spent on a QO for Gray.

Why not both?  If they can finagle a Dobnak type deal out of it with Mahle, we're not talking significant enough numbers to think that they couldn't do both.  

As far as the gamble part, prepare for the worst and hope for the best.  Make them earn their spot.

[Craig Arko]

5 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

Why not both?  If they can finagle a Dobnak type deal out of it with Mahle, we're not talking significant enough numbers to think that they couldn't do both.  

As far as the gamble part, prepare for the worst and hope for the best.  Make them earn their spot.

If both can be managed without shortchanging other areas, it’s all good.

[wsnydes]

Just now, Craig Arko said:

If both can be managed without shortchanging other areas, it’s all good.

I'm not sure that I want to do that, but I think both could be done.  I would agree that Gray should be the priority though.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I know Castillo was the biggest name available, but based on his numbers away from Cincinnati, Mahle was the guy I wanted most. I wanted nothing to do with Montas. Clearly I was wrong about Mahle, but I don't think I was the only one who felt that way. I don't think the problem was that they didn't aim high enough. 

Obviously there is a problem though. I like to roll the dice in my fantasy leagues with talented but injury prone guys, but clearly that's not a forever path in the real world. Probably need a different mentality than taking minimal monetary risks while dirking beer and talking trash with your buddies.

When I said aim higher.That wasn't directed as Mahle. 

I was talking about free agents or vets that we might bring in via trade. Vets that may be added in the off-season. I like the youth that we have bubbling up now. I really like that we didn't Archer or Bundy this year to fill out depth. If we are going to add pitching and we probably will because we have 3 guys hitting free agency. I'm hoping that we think big.

If they can't think big... OK... let's let the youngsters keep coming.  

I was OK with the trade when it happened. We needed to add for the playoffs. Steer I believe had to be added to the 40 man and we had 40 man decisions to make. I wish E-Strand wasn't part of it but... it's the cost of doing business. 

The trade feels a little worse because of the struggles that Jose Miranda is having but at the time of the trade the club was in position to win the division and do some post season.

We lost the trade... it happens. It had my full support. 

[Craig Arko]

I remember the Herschel Walker trade. This isn’t even in the same league as that.

[Brock Beauchamp]

12 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

I'm not sure that I want to do that, but I think both could be done.  I would agree that Gray should be the priority though.

The thing about Gray is that if he keeps pitching at such a high level, he's going to want 4-5 years and there's no way I want him for more than three.

[wsnydes]

8 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

The thing about Gray is that if he keeps pitching at such a high level, he's going to want 4-5 years and there's no way I want him for more than three.

This is true.  I'm not even sure that I want to sign him for 3 unless there's an opt out.  At that point, the QO is a moot point for sure.