Week in Review: Bumpy Road

[Nick Nelson]

An uninspiring road trip saw the Twins drop two series against division foes, failing to expand their AL Central lead as the bats remained bottled up.

Image courtesy of © David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 5/1 through Sun, 5/7
***
Record Last Week: 2-4 (Overall: 19-16)
Run Differential Last Week: +0 (Overall: +26)
Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (2.5 GA)

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 30 | CWS 3, MIN 2: Another Ryan Gem Wasted in Walk-Off Loss
Game 31 | CWS 6, MIN 4: Missed Chances Lead to Late Swing of Fortunes
Game 32 | MIN 7, CWS 3: Twins Grind Out Extra-Inning Win to Avoid Sweep
Game 33 | MIN 2, CLE 0: Pitchers Dominate Hapless Cleveland Lineup
Game 34 | CLE 4, MIN 3: Gray Loses Control, Bats Remain Cold
Game 35 | CLE 2, MIN 0: Lineup Held to One Hit as Twins Drop Series

NEWS & NOTES

Things came to a head more quickly than expected with the Alex Kirilloff situation. Despite being pronounced physically ready, and affirming that billing with his play at Triple-A, the 25-year-old was seemingly stymied by a lack of opportunity on the big-league team.

That is, until Trevor Larnach made the decision easier for the front office by slumping very badly at the exact wrong time. An 0-for-9 series in Chicago, including eight strikeouts, sealed Larnach's fate as he was shipped out prior to the Cleveland series, making room in the lineup for Kirilloff.

The handling of the move was a little odd – Larnach had been announced as the No. 8 hitter on Friday night before being optioned ahead of the game. There was no apparent reason for urgency in promoting Kirilloff, who didn't start on Friday or Saturday anyway. Perhaps the Twins are angling to make Larnach available again as soon as possible, since a player must wait 10 days after being optioned to return.

This dynamic actually might've played a role in the timing at play here. Given that 10 days hadn't passed since Kirilloff was optioned, an injury was needed to bring him back, so he was actually swapped for Caleb Thielbar. The lefty reliever went on the injured list with a right oblique strain.

With that, it looks like we're back into full rotating-door mode at the back end of the bullpen. Long reliever Dereck Rodríguez was called up to temporarily fill Thielbar's spot, and then Josh Winder was swapped out for Jorge Alcala the following day.

To make room for Rodríguez on the 40-man roster, Tyler Mahle was placed on the 60-day IL, meaning he won't return until at least the 4th of July, with the season half over.

HIGHLIGHTS

Starting pitching continues to be this team's calling card, and a fine one at that. The Twins are in basically every game; while the losses are frustrating, they almost never feel out of reach. The rotation is setting a really high floor and a strong basis for success with their routinely quality work.

Bailey Ober has been sensational since getting his opportunity to step in, and kept the momentum rolling on Friday with seven shutout innings against the Guardians. Ober allowed just three hits while lowering his ERA to 0.98, and he has yet to allow a home run through three starts. 

 

A day earlier, Pablo López got back on track in a dignity-salvaging victory against the White Sox, hurling seven innings of two-run ball with eight strikeouts and one walk. Only three American League pitchers have tallied more strikeouts than López, who has pitched at least into the seventh in four of his seven starts. The righty has been everything the Twins could've hoped, which is great news as Luis Arraez continues to tear it up in Miami with a league-leading .420 average. 

Joe Ryan started twice and turned in a couple more quality starts, hurling six shutout innings against the White Sox and then limiting the Guardians to two runs in six frames on Sunday, although his charmed run support finally ran dry in the latter when he suffered his first loss of the season. 

Nonetheless, Ryan's numbers are stellar across the board: a 5-1 record, 2.45 ERA, 2.88 FIP, 0.84 WHIP and 47-to-6 K/BB ratio in 44 innings of work. He's completed six-plus innings every time out. 

 

While Thielbar's loss hurts for a bullpen that has been quite strong in the early going, the addition of Brock Stewart has proven to be a huge boost. The right-hander made three appearances last week and didn't allow a hit. He has now provided six scoreless innings since being called up, and leads all Twins relievers in Win Probability Added.

LOWLIGHTS

Wednesday's loss to the White Sox was symbolic of the larger trend that's held Minnesota back from a true breakthrough this season. 

The offense was having a decent game, knocking Dylan Cease out after five innings and erasing an early deficit. In the seventh inning, with the game tied 4-4, the Twins had a chance to open up a big lead against Chicago's bullpen when they loaded the bases with no outs for the 3-through-5 spots in their lineup.

And then: Carlos Correa grounded out, Byron Buxton grounded out, and Larnach struck out swinging. Threat over. Chicago scratched across runs in each of the next two innings to take the series. 

Correa has been a prevalent contributor to the ongoing offensive misfires. His production continues to not materialize as he keeps appearing in the most critical lineup spots. The past week saw Correa go 4-for-25, dropping his season slash line to .193/.271/.378.

You may recall Correa getting off to a slow start last year but it was nothing compared to this. Through 31 games in 2022, he was comparatively slashing .275/.346/.400, with his bat already awakening from an early swoon that was far less drastic.

Correa might be the most high-profile culprit in this offense's woes but he's hardly the only one. With the exception of Buxton and Max Kepler, bats have pretty much gone ice-cold throughout the lineup – even those that had previously been productive:

• Joey Gallo went 0-for-15, and has seen his OPS plummet by nearly 200 points here in June. On the bright side, he's not striking out a crazy amount and is still drawing walks, but the hits and homers have gone amiss.
• Christian Vazquez, whose offensive output in the first couple of weeks was a pleasant surprise, has fallen into a deep slump. He went 1-for-13 in four starts last week and is slashing .200/.262/.250 in the past month. 
• Donovan Solano went 0-for-10 in the series, dropping his OPS to .637. His usefulness to the team is waning with Kirilloff back in the mix, so it'll be interesting to see how much longer the Twins stick with the struggling veteran. The last time he played a full nine-inning game for Minnesota was April 18th, nearly three full weeks ago.

Then of course there is Jose Miranda, who remains unable to snap out of his prolonged funk. His 2-for-21 week, which included six strikeouts and zero walks, dropped his line on the season to .219/.275/.313. What might seem like a mere five-week slump at the plate is actually considerably more substantial if you extend it back to last year, after his rookie hot streak faded.

 

To make matters worse, Miranda also had some brutal defensive moments at third base, cementing his current status as a two-way liability. Something needs to change. It's likely about to.

TRENDING STORYLINE

Kyle Farmer has been rehabbing in Triple-A (I watched him hit a home run in St. Paul on Sunday) and it sounds like he'll be ready to be activated and rejoin the team at Target Field on Tuesday.

So who goes to make room? 

While Willi Castro is a possibility, it's looking like the more likely candidate is Miranda, whose broken plate approach is pretty clearly meriting of a minor-league reset. 

The idea of both Larnach and Miranda in Triple-A, optionally, five weeks into the season is not something anyone would've envisioned as an ideal scenario. But it speaks to the strength and depth of the Twins roster that they not only have readily available quality alternatives in Kirilloff and Farmer, but that they'll soon have prospects potentially pushing those replacements in Matt Wallner, Edouard Julien, and Royce Lewis. 

LOOKING AHEAD

Here comes the National League! Fans who are interested in catching a few visiting teams we've rarely had the opportunity to see are in luck, with the Padres and Cubs coming to Target Field as part of Major League Baseball's newly diversified schedule mix. Both clubs are off to solid starts and should present a challenge – especially the star-studded Padres who will be rolling in with Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, and our old friend Nelson Cruz.

TUESDAY, 5/9: PADRES @ TWINS – RHP Michael Wacha v. RHP Louie Varland
WEDNESDAY, 5/10: PADRES @ TWINS – RHP Seth Lugo v. RHP Pablo Lopez
THURSDAY, 5/11: PADRES @ TWINS – RHP Yu Darvish v. RHP Bailey Ober
FRIDAY, 5/12: CUBS @ TWINS – LHP Drew Smyly v. RHP Sonny Gray
SATURDAY, 5/13: CUBS @ TWINS – RHP Hayden Wesneski v. RHP Joe Ryan
SUNDAY, 5/14: CUBS @ TWINS – RHP Marcus Stroman v. RHP Louie Varland

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[Parfigliano]

Dead horse beating here but they have to score by means other then HR.  Their whole approach stinks if swinging for the fences every pitch whatever situation can even be considered an approach.  

[OvertheHill]

6 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Dead horse beating here but they have to score by means other then HR.  Their whole approach stinks if swinging for the fences every pitch whatever situation can even be considered an approach.  

I'll gladly flog that horse. I think it would be giving them too much credit for having any approach lately. Here's to hoping that there's a more enlightened approach to plate appearances in the near future.

[Nashvilletwin]

Although it’s early, we had a chance to make a real statement and create the type of early separation that can demoralise chasers.  We flat out blew it.

We should still win the division, but this team as it’s currently playing is more of a pretender than contender. Let’s hope we can improve.

[William K Johnson]

Is James Rowson employed?   If not, someone give him a call.   Our current hitting philosophy is not working.

[chpettit19]

31 minutes ago, William K Johnson said:

Is James Rowson employed?   If not, someone give him a call.   Our current hitting philosophy is not working.

James Rowson was let go by that offensive juggernaut known as the Miami Marlins over the offseason, and is now employed by the 2nd lowest scoring team (Miami is the lowest scoring team) the Detroit Tigers. But, to his credit, his team is currently striking out in .4% fewer PAs than the Twins.

[Rosterman]

Lots of looking at pitches and free swinging. Need to at least try and manufacture runs, guys.

[Whitey333]

Great well written article.  Twins are what they are.  A very boring team that can't even play station to station baseball.  The going for the home run type of swing in every situation is ludicrous.  It obviously isn't working.  Great pitching, which is unusual in Minnesota is being wasted.  What a shame.  I hope things improve soon but I'm not sure how it will change.  

[lukeduke1980]

Curse of the hats.  Send them back to miami

[Minny505]

While many in the lineup have been ugly for most of the season, the slump "Gallo" is in is still encouraging. He seems more like a BABIP victim right now than a poor plate appearance offender. 

Correa looks terrible, but his career 135ish wRC+ has me not worried in the long run. I would drop him in the lineup though until he gets it going a bit. Some good-to-great players just go thru this: Jeter, Ramirez, Soto, Arenado, etc.

Miranda, Larnach, Vasquez, and Solano are much more concerning for the rest-of-the-season.

[HawksNest]

Just when you think the lineup may be starting to wake up...they face plant. My guess is that they'll eventually heat up while the pitching cools down and everything will even out. Finish as a 85-90 win team, probably win the division and then we'll see what happens in the postseason.

[Johnny Ringo]

They may win the Central by default. They might not be able to help it in this trainwreck of a division. But what is worse right now? Miranda's approach at the plate (yesterday he swings at ball 2 in a 1-0 count with the bases loaded after the 3 prior batters either walked or got HBP. Naturally, he weakly pops up); Rocco's managing (he is for literally 1 for the season on challenges); the Little League baserunning or something else?

Take your pick kids. We have a smorgasbord here! 

 

  

[Blyleven2011]

Bumpy road , I think not ...

The road series had so many pot holes  , I now have to get a front-end alignment  ....

Rocco talks about all the skill the  players have , I've yet to see it perform in harmony  ...

[Carnegie]

7 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Dead horse beating here but they have to score by means other then HR.  Their whole approach stinks if swinging for the fences every pitch whatever situation can even be considered an approach.  

... and can't steal a base either. Thought the team was over the idea that everyone swings for the bleachers or nothing after the Sano experience. Small ball is more fun to watch in my opinion.

[David HK]

End of this month, we'll be looking up at the Tigers, and battling the Sox for 3rd place.

[David HK]

4 hours ago, HawksNest said:

Just when you think the lineup may be starting to wake up...they face plant. My guess is that they'll eventually heat up while the pitching cools down and everything will even out. Finish as a 85-90 win team, probably win the division and then we'll see what happens in the postseason.

The usual one-and-done dance, methinks.  

[Brazilian Twins Fan]

14 hours ago, HawksNest said:

Just when you think the lineup may be starting to wake up...they face plant. My guess is that they'll eventually heat up while the pitching cools down and everything will even out. Finish as a 85-90 win team, probably win the division and then we'll see what happens in the postseason.

We know exactly what happens in the postseason. Sadly.

[theBOMisthebomb]

10 hours ago, David HK said:

The usual one-and-done dance, methinks.  

When/if our beloved Twins complete the one and done dance, all four of the major league men's professional sports teams from Minnesota will have been eliminated in the first round of the playoffs in 2023. Quite a sports accomplishment for the state!

[rv78]

C'Mon man, drink the Kool-Aid and believe. This is a good team assembled by Falvine that spends money wisely and effectively and is led by a top-notch Manager who knows how to win. He's the next Earl Weaver and knows that 3 run homers win a lot of games, Too bad 2 guys can't get on base before the HR. Too bad Rocco can't adjust to new rules that are suppose to make stealing bases easier, or that he just refuses to even try to manufacture a run. Too bad his team plays listless baseball and the players are uninspired by their manager. Too bad $68M dollars gets you 4 guys that can barely hit. 200. Too bad Maeda and Mahle are toast and injuries are ignored when acquiring players. Too bad Buxton will probably never play in the field and the Twins are more than willing to throw away the best part of his game even though his last 2 injuries never happened when he was playing defense. Too bad that not just the manager but his coaches are not held accountable for the poor play that has become the norm. Put this team in any other division and they don't even make the playoffs. 

[Blyleven2011]

51 minutes ago, rv78 said:

C'Mon man, drink the Kool-Aid and believe. This is a good team assembled by Falvine that spends money wisely and effectively and is led by a top-notch Manager who knows how to win. He's the next Earl Weaver and knows that 3 run homers win a lot of games, Too bad 2 guys can't get on base before the HR. Too bad Rocco can't adjust to new rules that are suppose to make stealing bases easier, or that he just refuses to even try to manufacture a run. Too bad his team plays listless baseball and the players are uninspired by their manager. Too bad $68M dollars gets you 4 guys that can barely hit. 200. Too bad Maeda and Mahle are toast and injuries are ignored when acquiring players. Too bad Buxton will probably never play in the field and the Twins are more than willing to throw away the best part of his game even though his last 2 injuries never happened when he was playing defense. Too bad that not just the manager but his coaches are not held accountable for the poor play that has become the norm. Put this team in any other division and they don't even make the playoffs. 

It's the worst uninspiring baseball since the 2019 juiced ball ...

Too bad someone isn't  intelligent enough to tell  the manager that the ball isn't juiced anymore  ...

To bad I just don't get it that they can't make adjustments  to make the game more exciting to compete   ...

[mikelink45]

The comments capture the malaise that has swept over the Twins fans.  Lopez has been good - not great and we have extended him which is wise, but he has 0.7WAR, 2.77 era and has slumped like the bats since his hot start.  Meanwhile we need a bat like Luis Arraez - 2 WAR, 414/469/509/978.  Where do we find it?  Is Julien heating up enough to step in the majors and do something?  Farmer coming back gives us some options and luckily Miranda still has some minor league options, but Farmer is not the bat that will make a difference.

Kiriloff has to go on a tear, make up for the last two years and be the star that he has been projected to be..  Correa looks like a spring time underachiever - two years in a row.  Not go for our rich star.  The Polanco effect has worn off.  Gallo has gone back to what he was, Vasquez too has returned to norm. 

Solano has less than zero glove value and his bat is not holding up - Lee and Lewis need to prosper and he needs to be gone. That is a lot of failure and we thought we had one of our best rosters.  '

Now we have to wait to see what the BP is going to be like with Thielbar out, Winder sent down.  

With the only above 500 record in the Central we should hold on for another week.  But what is happening in Detroit?  Second place.  We had a week losing in the division.  We are also the only team in the division with a positive run differential despite our batting frustrations. We are 10 - 6 in our division (5-2 vs KC).  Which means we are 9 - 10 versus the other divisions.  I was hoping we would be more than a weak division leader this year and still hope that happens.   We are 12th overall in the total MLB standings.  7th in overall AL standings (at least we are 1/2 game ahead of the Yankees).  And, other than the pathetic A's who are the bottom four teams - yes the AL Central teams.

Finally we are 30th in team BA - 220.  29th in SB. 29th in OBP.  21st in slugging. 9th in HR.  station to station one commentor stated.  The stats bear him out. 

 

 

[JD-TWINS]

17 hours ago, Minny505 said:

While many in the lineup have been ugly for most of the season, the slump "Gallo" is in is still encouraging. He seems more like a BABIP victim right now than a poor plate appearance offender. 

Correa looks terrible, but his career 135ish wRC+ has me not worried in the long run. I would drop him in the lineup though until he gets it going a bit. Some good-to-great players just go thru this: Jeter, Ramirez, Soto, Arenado, etc.

Miranda, Larnach, Vasquez, and Solano are much more concerning for the rest-of-the-season.

Gallo is what his history said he would be - no hits over last 29 plate appearances isn’t a good trend though. He’s getting me concerned. (0-23 with 6 walks)

Agree on CC coming around at some point - he seems slow to the ball - big, wound up swing. Would love to see a line drive over SS head a couple times per week. Never saw Jeter get moved down in line-up……don’t see this as a benefit with a team BA of .220. Lots of holes to fill in line-up.

Can release Solano & back fill his role with Miranda. Gotta assume guys will hit better over time………whole organization can’t remain in prolonged slump.

[JD-TWINS]

Farmer’s return may not be a big shot in the arm but his ability to give Polanco a day off - Correa a day off - displace Miranda at 3B for a bit………ability to hit an even keeled .240 or so, way better on days we see a LH pitcher. Stability.

Don’t see how Walner helps this year prior to late July. Can’t imagine trading Kepler to make room for him because if Kepler sucks we can’t trade him & if he’s moderately OK, we’ll keep him. Walner, in my mind, only plays RF? If he could play LF he might get an opportunity instead of Larnach?

Also, don’t see how Julien gets people excited. He only plays 2B. He’s not getting more than 1 start at 2nd every 2 weeks with Polanco healthy. He may get 1 start every 2 weeks at DH with Buxton currently cemented there. He may pinch hit twice per week. 6 AB’s per week is not worth a roster spot for him. Would probably stunt his development as well, not playing regularly.

Polanco - Kiriloff both back for next few weeks should tell us a lot. CC needs to slowly creep back to the norm between now through June.

Gallo - Buxton - Kepler gotta keep going deep once per week.

Nick Gordon has the rest of May to get it going or we’ll need to consider a move with him. .279 BA & 28 doubles in ‘22 with defensive flexibility should keep him around for a while.

[Minny505]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Gallo is what his history said he would be - no hits over last 29 plate appearances isn’t a good trend though. He’s getting me concerned. (0-23 with 6 walks)

Agree on CC coming around at some point - he seems slow to the ball - big, wound up swing. Would love to see a line drive over SS head a couple times per week. Never saw Jeter get moved down in line-up……don’t see this as a benefit with a team BA of .220. Lots of holes to fill in line-up.

Can release Solano & back fill his role with Miranda. Gotta assume guys will hit better over time………whole organization can’t remain in prolonged slump.

Agreed on Gallo. He looks like the allstar form of himself so far, but may regress back to career norms. Even that is a win in FA and an upgrade over any other corner outfield option. The underlying numbers, even since his injury

0h-fors are common for hitters like him. When you are not putting a lot of balls in play you are reducing your chances for random bloops, bleeders, misplays, etc, to land in to break up the hitless streak. But those walks mean he is still contributing offensively. 

His Statcast box is beautiful, especially that xwOBA. He is a player that has underperformed his xwOBA in his career by 12 bips, but that K% might level him out.

[wornsmooth]

7 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

Agreed on Gallo. He looks like the allstar form of himself so far, but may regress back to career norms. Even that is a win in FA and an upgrade over any other corner outfield option. The underlying numbers, even since his injury

0h-fors are common for hitters like him. When you are not putting a lot of balls in play you are reducing your chances for random bloops, bleeders, misplays, etc, to land in to break up the hitless streak. But those walks mean he is still contributing offensively. 

His Statcast box is beautiful, especially that xwOBA. He is a player that has underperformed his xwOBA in his career by 12 bips, but that K% might level him out.

Correa has hit a rocket at least once in each recent game on the road. Most went for outs. 

Gallo was doing the same in his 0 for 20 stretch.  Gordon is starting to.

The hits will start hitting the gaps. Pitching, with just a little more timely hitting, will win more games.

If the Twins could cut down on the whiffs, maybe a bit more hit and run could help.

[TwinsAce]

When I look at the Savant profile for the Twins, a few things stick out.

Miranda, Gordon, and Solano (and Vazquez) have struggled quite a bit.  Their stats seem to confirm the struggle for the most part.  Gordon does have slightly higher increase in expected stats, but his launch angle stinks.  Gallo has too high of a launch angle, but otherwise I think he is hitting pretty close to what we can expect.  Kepler seems to be doing slightly better than normal surprisingly...curious to see how that goes the rest of the year. 

Correa is at 15.5 launch angle, which seems slightly higher compared to his ideal number.  In looking at his profile more, it confirms he hasn't been hitting fastballs and off-speed as much as normal and when he does, it is going opposite field or a pop-up.
I probably trust Correa more to correct his issues the rest of the year.  Seems like every game he has a great hard hit ball, but then follows it up with a pop up.
Miranda, Gordon, Solano, and Vazquez seem to be of more concern.  Of those, only Vazquez provides the defense to offset the hitting struggles.  Hopefully the Twins can fix Miranda and Gordon otherwise I'd look for replacements by the summer.  (Lewis anyone?)

[TwinsAce]

A few other snips below that are similar to the previous post.  Not enough barrel% or Solid %, topped % too high, and too many GBs or PUs for a few players.  (Buxton and Gallo stick out again with the Pop up and Under %.) 
Chase contact % is super high for some of these struggling players too in addition to some of the 1st Pitch swing percentages confirming what we see far too often.

[ashbury]

Bumpy Road, indeed.

Getting nearly no-hit in multiple games has shaken my faith in either the talent level I thought was there, or the strategic approach being preached by the coaching staff that is undermining that talent.

[LewFordLives]

Definitely time to start calling out Correa. Most players without his pedigree would have already been optioned or DFA'd by now. I have no illusions that he will ever live up to $33 million per year, but he's better than what he's given us so far.  It's not fair to the fans who buy the tickets, hot dogs, jerseys, and TV packages that ultimately pay for his salary.