3 Spring Training Stat Lines that Matter for the Twins

[Cody Christie]

Spring training can allow players to showcase new pitches, swing changes, or improved health. Here are three spring training stat lines that will matter for the 2023 Twins.

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

Fans should take spring training stat lines with a grain of salt. Sometimes pitchers are working on one specific pitch, and there are times when batters are honing their swing. There can still be signs that a player will have a breakout season or start the season on a hot streak. As spring training ends, three Twins players are setting themselves for breakout seasons. 

Stats are through games played on March 26th. 

Jose Miranda, 3B/1B
Spring Stat Line: 10-for-36, 3 2B, 5 HR, 5 BB, 3 K
Miranda fought through an injury this spring with a sore shoulder that prevented him from playing defensively for multiple weeks. His swing didn’t suffer, with eight of his ten hits being for extra bases. Miranda entered camp after spending the winter slimming down and getting into better playing shape. He tired at the end of the 2022 season, and his on-field results suffered in the season’s final weeks. His improved results speak for themselves, as his five barrels were more than any other Twins player in camp. He had the highest percentage of hard-hit balls among Twins players, with over 100 pitches. The Twins are hoping Miranda can take over the full-time third base job, and his spring training may point to a strong 2023 campaign. 

Trevor Larnach, OF
Spring Stat Line: 12-for-32, 2 2B, 4 HR, 3 BB, 5 K
Larnach wasn’t a guarantee to make the Opening Day roster, but injuries to other key players and his spring performance have him poised to head north with the club. He has shown stretches of being a strong hitter during his first two big-league seasons, including a 1.077 OPS last May. MLB.com believes his breakout could be real because his 96.4 mph exit velocity this spring ranks seventh among the nearly 300 hitters with ten or more batted balls. Larnach is getting an opportunity on the Opening Day roster due to injuries to other players. He needs to prove he can stay healthy, which should help him continue producing at a high level. Otherwise, plenty of young hitters will be fighting for a big-league spot in St. Paul. 

Bailey Ober, SP
Spring Stat Line: 4 G, 10 IP, 3 ER, 2 HR, 9 K, 3 BB
Ober won’t start the season at the big-league level despite a tremendous spring training. When the Twins traded for Pablo Lopez, Ober became the sixth starting pitcher in what was expected to be a five-man starting rotation. When the Twins drafted Ober, his velocity topped out in the high-80s, but he’s made multiple improvements since 2017. So far this spring, his fastball has reached 94 mph, which helps his other pitches to increase his strikeout totals. His 6-foot-9 frame also helps him to release the ball closer to the plate, which gives batters less reaction time. Ober will have to bide his time in St. Paul, but he is one injury or poor performance from breaking back into the major league level. 

Which spring performance is much more likely to transition to the 2023 season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[stringer bell]

I'd rank all three impressive performances (1) Larnach (2) Miranda and (3) Ober. 

1. Larnach plays "bat first" positions and is 26 years old. I think this year is perhaps his last chance to establish himself as a regular. I believe he can be a very good all-around corner outfielder, but the clock is ticking. 

2. Miranda, similar to Larnach, needs to hit well above average playing at bat-first positions (first and third) and not being a particularly adept defender. For most of last season and this spring he has looked the part of a middle-of-the-order masher. 

3. Ober has stepped up his velocity which moves his ceiling up, almost commensurate with his height. It is important for him to remain healthy and provide the Twins with innings when he is called on. His performance this year will play a big part in his role with the Twins in 2024 and beyond. 

[chpettit19]

Miranda just seems to be a guy who knows how to put the bat on the ball. Looks real "hitterish" to me. Has the chance to establish himself as a heart-of-the-order bat this year. I never really expected great pop out of him (not bad, but not 30-homer type), but he's hit a couple balls this spring that sure make him look like he may get to 30 bombs in a season a time or 2. I'd be more than happy with 20 homers and 40 doubles.

I like Larnach's new Freeman-esque looking swing. Up the middle oriented swing with plenty of power to hit it out there while also using "the big part of the field" to maintain a nice BA. Health is the only real question I have with him. If he stays healthy I think he establishes himself as the #4 or 5 hitter in this lineup for the next 5 years.

Ober is simply all about health. He can't become a trusted starter for this team if he can't get to 100-120 innings this season. Can he stay healthy? That's the only question with him. If he can't make it to 100-120 innings this season he's got to go to the pen and try to stay healthy there. Kid can pitch, but can he pitch enough to be a starter?

[Dave Borton]

Miranda at 3B still scares me (.950 career wise if memory serves me).. My guess is that he moves to DH when Buxton is ready to go in CF. Farmer moves to 3B. Lots of flexibility with this roster.

[roger]

I would add a fourth, Cody.  And that is a stat line that didn't exist, the one from Kirilloff.  In my opinion, he can be the best player of this group.  The Twins need him to get 100% comfortable with his wrist and then get back to the big club no later than the end of April.  They then need him to remain healthy all season and hit like we all believe this young man can.

[Doctor Gast]

All these ST statlines are impressive.

I'd rate Ober #1

I'd rate the other 2 lower because of their gloves. IMO it's  very close

My #2 is Miranda because he's really mashing and is in better shape where he'll have more stamina to sustain his hitting. Hopefully they have his shoulder under control.

#3 Larnach has had a pretty good ST but the only one I saw was with him in RF. He played too far back which tells me he has difficulty going back on the ball. Against a RH batter he was playing deep & not that far off the line. A lazy fly ball that Kepler would have caught w/o any problems dropped in front of him.

They should be able to transfer it to some extent in regular games and to sustain it depends on their health.

[Tyler from Oregon]

I can't believe how intimidating Larnach has looked at the plate. Pretty cool to see since we weren't sure he'd ever properly recover from last year's injury.

[D.C Twins]

1 hour ago, davidborton said:

Miranda at 3B still scares me (.950 career wise if memory serves me).. My guess is that he moves to DH when Buxton is ready to go in CF. Farmer moves to 3B. Lots of flexibility with this roster.

Miranda will find his way to 1B sooner rather than later (I don't think Krill's wrist is going to hold long term but I hope I'm wrong)

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I put very little stock in pitching stat lines for ST.  The first half of ST is about getting the feel for your pitches, working on command, trying a different pitch.  They aren't necessarily pitching to win or put up big numbers.

[JD-TWINS]

#3 Miranda seems to be having an extension of last season - nothing new. He needs to settle in at 3B since Kiriloff will suck up 75% of the starts at 1B. Good hitter with pop!

#2 Ober too seems to be an extension of last year. His health seems to be his only barrier & the capability of the other starters to stay healthy in front of him.

 #1 Larnach could big a really nice offensive addition that wasn’t going to be on roster 2 weeks ago. If he keeps hitting and gets to DH regularly v. RH pitching he just may stick. If he can hit 25 HR & play some LF & RF …..maybe .270 BA with a bunch of doubles…..hooray!

[JD-TWINS]

What do we do with Larnach - Castro - Solano when Kiriloff & Polanco come back in a month?

With today’s information, Castro & Solano get moved.

Thoughts?

[Bodie]

I think the most important numbers in ST are "10 and 14.2".  Walks and innings for Maeda. 

Kenta Maeda looks like he is going to take a while to regain his control (and apparently velocity).  

 

My opinion is that he is the key to not the rotation, or even the pitching staff, but to the Twins season.

As much as many people are psyched about the rotation, its actual history is pretty thin (at best).  Gray and Maeda have enough history that a realistic estimate of their performance can be expected  - except Maeda is coming off a major surgery (that isn't wholy unexpected at his age and due to his much more onerous workload when still in Japan) that regularly requires a full season pitching (after rehabbing) to get back the control and "feel" they had pre-surgery.

Lopez has an established track record, but changing teams can mess with a player's mojo.  I don't expect it to be a big deal, but you just can't tell until he pitches...

I understand being excited about Mahle and Ryan (especially Ryan!) but neither has much of a major league track record.  A very nice season is far from a guarantee of a repeat the next year (especially for pitchers), let alone for a career.  Add in Minnesota's atrocious record in developing pitching, and I am not yet sold on either Ryan or Mahle.  Excited? You bet!  But it will take a season or so more of quality pitching by either (or preferably both!) for me to become a true believer.

Circling back to Maeda, his track record says that (ignoring his TJ surgery for second) he is not only the Twins number one starter, but the best bet to be an actual ace.  He may (now taking into account his TJ surgery) still be, but his seeming lack of control (and the numbers could be misleading as they are a small sample size in ST, and he may be trying something new/different with a fully healed arm) and, reportedly, velocity is a cause for concern.  Due to his age  this concert is both short and long-term. 

"Ace" as I use the term is sort of nebulous, but to paraphrase an an old Supreme Court ruling, I know one when I see one.  He is your stopper.  He is unquestionably the guy you send out to start game one of a playoff series and pray is available for game seven.  Not just your number one guy, but something even better.  Johan Santana was an ace, Radke was a a number one (if only by default some years).  Viola at his best was an ace, Scott Erickson (no-hitter and all) never was.

An ace not only solidifies a rotation (and a whole pitching staff) but usually it's personality is a reflection of him.  He is a leader by default, if not otherwise.  He eats innings.  He doesn"t get pulled because his opponents are seeing him a third time in a game.  An ace is necessary for a great staff.  He is special!!!

As I said above, Meada is the only one with that track record that says he can be that guy.  That is not to say that the 3 young guys (including Lopez as he is new to us and still about 25/6 years old, and a 4th guy if you are to count Ober) can't or won't develop into an ace, but it takes a world of talent, the ability to adapt and learn, and to an extent time to have that reputation that makes your opponent think that today is a good day to take off.

Maeda, if fully recovered, is the best bet to anchor a special, if not great rotation. 

Just my opinion(s) take it for what it is worth..

 

 

[stringer bell]

11 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

What do we do with Larnach - Castro - Solano when Kiriloff & Polanco come back in a month?

With today’s information, Castro & Solano get moved.

Thoughts?

Three different players. 1) I think Larnach should have and will have an opportunity to play himself into a regular role with the Twins. He' s youngish, has big power and a decent defensive OF. Displacing someone (Taylor, Kirilloff, Gallo) could happen if Trevor emerges. 2) Castro is young for a three-plus year vet and has an option remaining. I don't think he's in a fair fight for a regular job, but he might be a valuable piece as the year progresses. 3) Solano isn't in the team's long-term plans, but I'm sure he will get some ABs to see if he's still "Donny Barrels"

[stringer bell]

3 hours ago, roger said:

I would add a fourth, Cody.  And that is a stat line that didn't exist, the one from Kirilloff.  In my opinion, he can be the best player of this group.  The Twins need him to get 100% comfortable with his wrist and then get back to the big club no later than the end of April.  They then need him to remain healthy all season and hit like we all believe this young man can.

I don't think anything other than activation from the IL will tell me that Kirilloff is going to help this club. Yes, he's "progressing" and all, but until the Twins think he's ready to play in Minneapolis, I'll doubt his recovery. 

[JD-TWINS]

1 minute ago, stringer bell said:

Three different players. 1) I think Larnach should have and will have an opportunity to play himself into a regular role with the Twins. He' s youngish, has big power and a decent defensive OF. Displacing someone (Taylor, Kirilloff, Gallo) could happen if Trevor emerges. 2) Castro is young for a three-plus year vet and has an option remaining. I don't think he's in a fair fight for a regular job, but he might be a valuable piece as the year progresses. 3) Solano isn't in the team's long-term plans, but I'm sure he will get some ABs to see if he's still "Donny Barrels"

My point is, question is, when the starting 1B & 2B come back in 2-4 weeks, who is coming off the roster?

It’s 2 of 3 guys, Solano - Castro - Larnach. Castro is essentially a “for sure” demotion.

[stringer bell]

Just now, JD-TWINS said:

My point is, question is, when the starting 1B & 2B come back in 2-4 weeks, who is coming off the roster?

It’s 2 of 3 guys, Solano - Castro - Larnach. Castro is essentially a “for sure” demotion.

I'd bet a bit of money that someone will go on the IL before both Kirilloff and Polanco are back. I agree Castro would be the easy choice, particularly because he can be optioned. Performance would matter. If Larnach struggles out of the gate, he could be demoted. If Solano get little playing time and looks bad, they might DFA him, but as I said, I would bet on someone going on IL.

[Bodie]

8 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I'd bet a bit of money that someone will go on the IL before both Kirilloff and Polanco are back.

Sad, but too likely true...

2 days, 4 hours to go - Light 'em up Twins!

[FlyingFinn]

5 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I'd bet a bit of money that someone will go on the IL before both Kirilloff and Polanco are back. I agree Castro would be the easy choice, particularly because he can be optioned. Performance would matter. If Larnach struggles out of the gate, he could be demoted. If Solano get little playing time and looks bad, they might DFA him, but as I said, I would bet on someone going on IL.

100% agreed. Even a minor injury to one of these players on the back end of the roster would probably put them on the IL for 10 days. Or, you just wait a few more days to activate Kirilloff or Polanco to let them heal/recover even more and someone is sure to get a minor injury. 

[DJL44]

I have been impressed by Alcala so far. He looks healthy and effective.

[jkcarew]

Man, would love to see Larnach turn a corner...would be huge.

I hope Buxton's 8 PA (with 5 K) doesn't mean anything. Obviously, it doesn't mean he's going to K in 62% of his PA this year...but you'd think if they are going to make him an every-day DH to start the year, they would have peeled him out of his bubble enough to establish some live/game timing. Seems like he's always been a fast starter. This year should put that to the test.

[old nurse]

Positive spring training numbers are good, but really indicative of nothing. It is not like teams run out even half a roster for the whole game. Derek Rodriguez hasn’t allowed an earned run. Nobody is saying he needs to be on the roster. 

[Craig Arko]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I have been impressed by Alcala so far. He looks healthy and effective.

Yes, he could be a real difference maker for this ‘pen.

[Major League Ready]

I also thought Jax looked good this spring.  His breaking balls look improved.

[nicksaviking]

I'm really excited for Miranda, he just seems like a professional hitter who could do this for years. I really hope they let Larnach have a full time corner OF job even when the vets are healthy enough to make the decision to bench one of them uncomfortable.

Funny thing about Ober is, that I want him to have Maeda's spot in the rotation right now, yet he still ranks behind SWR and Varland on my enthusiasm meter. He probably shouldn't since he's already shown to be a good MLB starter, but that's just how excited I am to see this new batch of Twins.

[Major League Ready]

15 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm really excited for Miranda, he just seems like a professional hitter who could do this for years. I really hope they let Larnach have a full time corner OF job even when the vets are healthy enough to make the decision to bench one of them uncomfortable.

Funny thing about Ober is, that I want him to have Maeda's spot in the rotation right now, yet he still ranks behind SWR and Varland on my enthusiasm meter. He probably shouldn't since he's already shown to be a good MLB starter, but that's just how excited I am to see this new batch of Twins.

I would love to see the trio of Ober / Varland and SWR pitch so well that they force or at least influence the Twins to trade one of the pending free agent SPs.  Maeda seems the most likely of the three to get traded.   The thought being they need to test these young guys this year given we have three pending FAs.   

[nicksaviking]

6 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I would love to see the trio of Ober / Varland and SWR pitch so well that they force or at least influence the Twins to trade one of the pending free agent SPs.  Maeda seems the most likely of the three to get traded.   The thought being they need to test these young guys this year given we have three pending FAs.   

Right. How many innings do they need to give these guys to trust them next year? They can’t keep trading for starters every year, so they need to plan on giving these guys MLB innings whether the current starters are healthy or not.

[Mike Sixel]

12 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

#3 Miranda seems to be having an extension of last season - nothing new. He needs to settle in at 3B since Kiriloff will suck up 75% of the starts at 1B. Good hitter with pop!

#2 Ober too seems to be an extension of last year. His health seems to be his only barrier & the capability of the other starters to stay healthy in front of him.

 #1 Larnach could big a really nice offensive addition that wasn’t going to be on roster 2 weeks ago. If he keeps hitting and gets to DH regularly v. RH pitching he just may stick. If he can hit 25 HR & play some LF & RF …..maybe .270 BA with a bunch of doubles…..hooray!

25 HR and .275 would be all star level hitting in this environment. 

[Mike Sixel]

58 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Right. How many innings do they need to give these guys to trust them next year? They can’t keep trading for starters every year, so they need to plan on giving these guys MLB innings whether the current starters are healthy or not.

Well, two are likely gone after this year..... So there will be space next year. 

[Mike Sixel]

10 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I have been impressed by Alcala so far. He looks healthy and effective.

That would be huge

[Wizard11]

Maybe Kirilloff just needs some time and wine in Paris.