Pros and Cons of a Jhoan Duran Extension

[Cody Christie]

If this offseason is any indication, elite relievers will continue to get paid. Here are the pros and cons of approaching Jhoan Duran with a contract extension.

Image courtesy of Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

There is no question about what Jhoan Duran meant to the Minnesota Twins during his rookie campaign. He immediately became one of baseball’s most dominant late-inning relievers. In 67 2/3 innings, he allowed 14 earned runs (1.86 ERA) with 89 strikeouts and 16 walks. He showed the Twins could use him in multiple situations, including closing games, multi-inning appearances, and getting the club out of jams. Duran led all AL pitchers in Win Probability Added while establishing himself as vital to the team’s long-term plans. 

Duran is entering his sophomore season so he won’t be eligible for arbitration until the 2025 season, and his earliest free agency is 2028. He has yet to make life-changing money, and that can be a good window for a club to approach a player about a long-term deal that buys out some of his free-agent years. For both sides, there isn’t a rush to do this, but these types of deals typically happen before a player reaches the arbitration process. Here are some pros and cons of getting a long-term deal for Duran. 

Pro: Cost Certainty 
Earlier in the offseason, the Mets signed Edwin Diaz to a five-year, $102 million contract, the richest reliever contract in history. He was scheduled to become a free agent, but the Mets ensured he didn’t reach the open market. It seems unlikely that the Twins will spend over $100 million to sign a relief pitcher because this front office has relied on internal options to fill bullpen roles. Other recent contracts might be more similar to what the Twins can offer to Duran. 

Entering last season, the Guardians signed Emmanuel Clase to a five-year, $20 million extension. The deal included a $2 million signing bonus and two option years (2027-28) at $10 million each. Incentives can make those option years worth $13 million, and they buy out his first two free agency years. Duran is a couple of months older than Clase, but Clase had roughly the same amount of service time as Duran when he agreed to his extension.

Pro: Investing in Bullpen
Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have shied away from multi-year contracts for relievers. Addison Reed is the only reliever signed to a multi-year contract during their tenure. The Twins gave him $16.75 million, and he was limited to 56 innings because of multiple injuries. Reed was only 29 when he signed with the Twins, and he had been one of baseball’s most reliable relievers. Unfortunately, he wouldn’t pitch again at the big-league level following the 2018 season. 

At some point, the Twins will need to invest in the bullpen. No one knows what baseball revenues will look like in five years, and Joe Pohlad has noted that he expects the team’s payroll to rise in the coming years. Minnesota is entering the 2023 season with the highest recorded payroll in team history at $157 million, which ranks 17th in baseball and second in the AL Central. Duran differs from many relievers, and the Twins should make a statement by investing in him.  

Con: Health
One of the main reasons Duran is in the bullpen is because of his health issues throughout his minor-league career. The Twins managed to keep Duran healthy during his rookie season, but there are no guarantees he will stay healthy in the future. Injuries highly impacted Minnesota’s roster last season, so the club might not want to invest significant capital into any pitcher, especially those with injury concerns. 

Reliever usage continues to evolve, and the Twins may continue using Duran in multi-inning appearances. Last season, the Twins were very careful with Duran and used him for more than an inning in 14 of his 57 appearances. It seems likely for that number to increase in the years ahead, but there are no guarantees his body can hold up to that increased workload. He has been a starter in the past, but there are scheduled rest days between appearances that aren’t guaranteed for a bullpen arm. 

Con: Age
The Twins already have Duran under team control through his age-29 season. Even if he is baseball’s best reliever during the next five seasons, do the Twins want to guarantee him money into his early-30s? Clase’s contract has team options ($10 million) with buyouts of $2 million per season. That could help the Twins to approach this contract since they could get out of the deal for a relatively small amount. 

Minnesota has been spoiled with All-Star caliber relievers in the past, like Joe Nathan, Glen Perkins, and Taylor Rogers. Duran can enter the same category, but not all relievers can be this good. Relievers tend to have a high-level performance window that only lasts a few seasons before burning out. The Twins saw this recently with Tyler Duffey, one of baseball’s best relievers for multiple seasons, before being released last season. Few relievers can be among baseball’s best for more than a few seasons. 

Can you see the Twins reaching out with a deal similar to Clase? Is the timing right for an extension or should the Twins wait until next offseason? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[sampleSizeOfOne]

Con. He hasn't signed one.

 

(I suppose some may argue this is a pro... Definitely he is a Pro.)

[Parfigliano]

He was dominant last year.  Last year was also his only year so its a really small sample size to base future results on.  He is under team control.  Those things make it unwise to be making a multi year offer.

[Nine of twelve]

I think it's been established pretty clearly that he is the REAL DEAL. He is already one of the most dominant relievers in MLB, and he could progress to the point of being the most dominant by a large margin. Whatever we can get him to sign for now will be dwarfed by what the market will pay him if he stays with one-year contracts until free agency. Of course there are risks, but in the long term this looks to me like it's a good, cost-effective investment for the Pohlad family fortune.

[Nine of twelve]

2 hours ago, Cody Christie said:

Relievers tend to have a high-level performance window that only lasts a few seasons before burning out. The Twins saw this recently with Tyler Duffey, one of baseball’s best relievers for multiple seasons, before being released last season.

 

I think someone pointed out that Duffey's drop-off in performance happened at the same time as the crackdown on grip-enhancers. Correlation does not imply causation, but the timing is noteworthy.

[Dman]

If they could get a Clase type deal I would do it.  Yeah arms can fall off at any time but if he works out the savings would be substantial.  Bullpen arms like that just don't come around that often.  He throws 102 easy and all his pitches have good movement so I don't see much regression there.  Only issue would be if his arm was damaged beyond repair for some reason.  If they can get an extra year or two with an extension that could be a real difference maker down the road.

[GKuehl]

I would ABSOLUTELY sign Duran to a long-term extension to buy out his arbitration years and his first 2-3 free agent years. We can say it’s a small sample size, but this isn’t some fluke — he throws 103 MPH with nasty breaking stuff. If anything, Duran should be even better this year than last year. He might be the best reliever in baseball. 

Injuries will always be a risk, but it’s not as if pitchers don’t consistently come back from TJ surgery in today’s MLB. Even if Duran needed TJ at some point, I’m guessing he would still come back as an elite reliever worth $12 million/year in 6 years, especially since team spending will only continue to increase. 

[chpettit19]

If Duran will sign a Clase style extension the Twins should do it tomorrow. Locking him up for an extra 2 or 3 years for less than $15 million per would be such a great advantage when he would normally be hitting free agency and demanding 25 per. Saving 10+ million a year on his contract would be huge for building the rest of the roster.

[MTV]

Let’s see what we can get in 2023. If he struggles and gets injured, probably not. But if he can be consistent and dominant sign him for a while. Also, if you will extend him, keep it under $30 million

[TL]

Both sides should want to get this deal done. For Duran $20mm guaranteed is life-changing and on balance, taking into account potential for injury, he should probably take it and not worry about what he left on the table. For the Twins $20mm over 5 years is immaterial and gives them a chance to buy-out two option years at below market value. 

And as a bonus I'll have peace of mind knowing that if he gets injured tomorrow and never throws again he'll be good financially. 

[Doctor Gast]

I'd normally say wait. But looking at that CLE has done this deal with Clase', I'd lean towards saying yes. CLE is a very economical club and Duran is in the same class as Clase' so it makes sense. If Clase' got this deal, Duran probably expect the same kind of deal. They should sign Duran to keep him happy, as they should have done with Johan Santana early in his career. My feel is that Duran should become our all time greatest RP, surpassing Joe Nathan, Glen Perkins, Taylor Rogers, Jeff Reardon and Rick Aguilera.

They'll do everything possible to keep him healthy, I hope.

[Karbo]

I would wait a couple months and see how he does. The injuries are a concern, but as good as he was last year would be a bet worth taking, if he looks as good thru maybe May?

[TopGunn#22]

I usually lean toward signing the young player because of the message it sends the players that if they perform they will be rewarded.  I liked the deals with Polanco and Kepler and I like the idea of cost certainty moving forward.  Teams like Cleveland and Atlanta have been very smart and calculated with this.  And I think Duran is certainly a piece we want to build around.  There is no question there is risk.  Pitchers are inherently a more risky proposition than hitters and Duran's own history is cautionary.  I think it's unlikely given his dominance as a RP, but there is always the possibility he could still be viewed as a potential starter.  

[weitz41]

It would seem like a wise move for the team and Duran. There is plenty of risk and reward on both sides. If the money being throw around this offseason continues, it would be a bargain for an average relief pitcher in a few years. 

[TwinsDr2021]

7 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'd normally say wait. But looking at that CLE has done this deal with Clase', I'd lean towards saying yes. CLE is a very economical club and Duran is in the same class as Clase' so it makes sense. If Clase' got this deal, Duran probably expect the same kind of deal. They should sign Duran to keep him happy, as they should have done with Johan Santana early in his career. My feel is that Duran should become our all time greatest RP, surpassing Joe Nathan, Glen Perkins, Taylor Rogers, Jeff Reardon and Rick Aguilera.

They'll do everything possible to keep him healthy, I hope.

Clase and Duran don't have that much in common when talking about extending. Clase pitched in the majors at age 21 (2019) for the Rangers and then again in 21, Cleveland bought out 4 arb year and they have the club option for his first two years of free agency. Don't the Twin have 5 years of control left with Duran? So are the Twins really going to sign a relief pitcher to a 7 year contract? And if they signed it similiar to Cleveland with two club options, and they turned down the options, they probably would have over paid the first 5 years. To be honest I would think it is both the team and player's best option to let it play out at least for a bit. Why would Duran sign a contract anything like Clase's when Josh Hader got 14 million to avoid Arbitration, Brooks Raley got a 2 year 10 million contract to avoid Arbitration, Scott Barlow got 5.3 and he has been better and expected to be better (closer to Hader). Clase took less than he probably would have gotten in Arbitration,

 

[wsnydes]

If you're going to do it, I would do it after next season.  You get a clearer picture of his health and a second season's worth of data points.  I don't think there's any real rush at this point though.

[TwinsDr2021]

17 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

If Duran will sign a Clase style extension the Twins should do it tomorrow. Locking him up for an extra 2 or 3 years for less than $15 million per would be such a great advantage when he would normally be hitting free agency and demanding 25 per. Saving 10+ million a year on his contract would be huge for building the rest of the roster.

For the Twins yes, Josh Hader made 34 million though his controllable years, so the Twins would likely be saving quite a bit of money buying them out plus the two years of FA at 20 million that would be less than 3 per year. But I don't see any agent thinking it would be a good idea to have the team buy out the arbitration for less then he is likely to make and the first two years of FA at way less than market value. If I was Duran I would say 5/30 and two additional years for 30. so a 7/60 with two club options. or lower like 5/22 with a player options at 15-18 million per year.

[Trov]

Every time I read one of these it always seems to be on the side of the should the team do it.  I rarely get much of the should the player do it?  Normally these early extensions work out much better for the team, or at least we do not hear much about it working out great for the player.  Dobnak so far is one that has worked out better for him than team.  The only reason Duran should agree to anything is if he is worried about his own health.  Provided he stays healthy, he should earn top dollar as a FA.  I bet he will get some high level pay in arbitration even if he pitches as well as we expect. 

[KBJ1]

Absolutely sign him! They have traded for 3 other pitchers with known injuries and that didn't stop them 

Duran's health is fine and so is he!

A similar deal to the one discussed above makes absolute sense!!

[JD-TWINS]

I don’t understand signing him for anything more than he may take & if you’ve had arm issues more than once it is crazy not to take an upgraded, guaranteed deal. I’m not cheap but giving a guy long term security buys down the price of his arbitration years……as with Clase……club options for $10.5 million a year once a free agent is the club’s benefit for giving him an early deal. I wait until mid year to keep this year’s cost static. 

I think this means 4 years (24 - ‘27) plus 2 years total. …….if he’s healthy, sign him mid-year this year.

$4.0 for 2 years …….$5.0 for 2 years …….. a 5th year at $10.0, also guaranteed! Club option at $11 for another year after year 5.

Year 5 is a good guarantee for Duran at this point in his career - Year 6 is a good deal for Twins in 2029 $$.

[Fatbat]

This kid is special. Lights out this year and the FO should be paying him thru his age 32 season. Probably around 60-70M. 

[Brandon]

On 3/10/2023 at 4:08 AM, Doctor Gast said:

I'd normally say wait. But looking at that CLE has done this deal with Clase', I'd lean towards saying yes. CLE is a very economical club and Duran is in the same class as Clase' so it makes sense. If Clase' got this deal, Duran probably expect the same kind of deal. They should sign Duran to keep him happy, as they should have done with Johan Santana early in his career. My feel is that Duran should become our all time greatest RP, surpassing Joe Nathan, Glen Perkins, Taylor Rogers, Jeff Reardon and Rick Aguilera.

They'll do everything possible to keep him healthy, I hope.

They did sign Johan early in his career. I think he got 4 years and 42 million after year 3 or 4.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Pitchers are always such a high risk investment.  RP even more so.  I am as high on Duran as anybody, but I do not believe there is a huge rush to lock in his years right now.  He is not going to sign a Dobnak-like contract.

Let the next year or two go by, then buy out his arbitration years plus a year or two if he continues down this path.  If he continues to be a rock star, the Twins will still be getting a discount on the contract (albeit a lesser discount then now). 

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

I don’t understand signing him for anything more than he may take & if you’ve had arm issues more than once it is crazy not to take an upgraded, guaranteed deal. I’m not cheap but giving a guy long term security buys down the price of his arbitration years……as with Clase……club options for $10.5 million a year once a free agent is the club’s benefit for giving him an early deal. I wait until mid year to keep this year’s cost static. 

I think this means 4 years (24 - ‘27) plus 2 years total. …….if he’s healthy, sign him mid-year this year.

$4.0 for 2 years …….$5.0 for 2 years …….. a 5th year at $10.0, also guaranteed! Club option at $11 for another year after year 5.

Year 5 is a good guarantee for Duran at this point in his career - Year 6 is a good deal for Twins in 2029 $$.

The Twins have control of him for 5 years (23,24,25,26,27), you offer is for 28 million total though his controllable years and 11 in his first FA year. Hader made 34 during his controllable years and Taylor Rogers made 17. So I would assume Duran if he pitchers close to last year is looking at something way closer to Hader's 34, with the amounts of contracts only going up I can't see this as much of a win for Duran, total win for the Twins though. IMO if they Twins want to extend him, it has to be around 40 plus million.

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, Brandon said:

They did sign Johan early in his career. I think he got 4 years and 42 million after year 3 or 4.

Thank you Brandon, Johan's time w/ MN seemed too short. As well as Duran's time here will seem after he's gone.

[dxpavelka]

5 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Thank you Brandon, Johan's time w/ MN seemed too short. As well as Duran's time here will seem after he's gone.

And he will be gone soon after he realizes that the role the  team is using him in will cost him tens (hundreds?) of millions of dollars over the course of his career.

[mnfireman]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

The Twins have control of him for 5 years (23,24,25,26,27), you offer is for 28 million total though his controllable years and 11 in his first FA year. Hader made 34 during his controllable years and Taylor Rogers made 17. So I would assume Duran if he pitchers close to last year is looking at something way closer to Hader's 34, with the amounts of contracts only going up I can't see this as much of a win for Duran, total win for the Twins though. IMO if they Twins want to extend him, it has to be around 40 plus million.

Clase's contract, with options and incentives, works out to 7/$36 MM and buys out his first 2 years of FA at $13 MM each (if exercised and he reaches incentives). The math of the contract suggested is 6/$39 MM, so very close to your "around 40 plus million."  If he were to get $34 MM during his controllable years, as suggested, he would be getting closer to $45-$46 MM over the 7 years, a very reasonable amount if he performs and still allows him to test FA at age 31, unless another contract/extension were to be worked out.

For what its worth, Clase and Duran have the same agency representing them, so a similar contract to Clase's is a very real possibility. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

On 3/9/2023 at 8:51 PM, chpettit19 said:

If Duran will sign a Clase style extension the Twins should do it tomorrow. Locking him up for an extra 2 or 3 years for less than $15 million per would be such a great advantage when he would normally be hitting free agency and demanding 25 per. Saving 10+ million a year on his contract would be huge for building the rest of the roster.

Agreed, but only if it’s a massive bargain like that. Relievers shine really bright and burn out fast. The Twins already have him locked up through age 29 season where velocity and K rate start to (on average) drop precipitously.

[DocBauer]

Payrolls and income will only rise. That means said extension could make a deal like this a great cost effective signing for the Twins. On the other hand, Duran might earn more by betting on himself and hitting FA around age 30. But then again, if the Twins wait to see if Duran performs as well, or better, in 2023, they might feel more certain about offering an extension, even though another year might drive the cost of one up another few $M.

And that's the complex issue with all of these early extensions, there's always 2 sides to the option. Even with greater future incomes, teams are still locking in and guaranteeing these contracts even if the player becomes injured or suddenly regress. And said player gains absolutely life changing money for themselves and their family, regardless of what happens in their career, but risk leaving potential $ on the table. And let's not kid ourselves here. As fans we toss around numbers that we are almost oblivious to because they are part of professional sports. A 7yr deal for $40-45-50M is not only life changing money, but generational money for a player.

NOT picking on anyone or lessening the growth of salaries in MLB, but Kepler has regressed since he signed his extension. Now, he's still earned at or close to market value thus far, and is young enough to rebound and earn additional $M's in his career. Hopefully he will do so. But for every long term, $200M+ deal signed by a top FA, you have a Sano...who has earned many $M's...but can't even get a milb invite right now at 29yo, despite being a teenage phenom and former top 100 prospect who has had an OK career.

I digress, sorry, but am trying to just make a point. When a young player looks special, and part of your future, it's never not smart to offer them an extension that offers financial security and life changing money. There is some risk to both parties. And Duran might just jump at an opportunity Ike this. And maybe he bets on himself. He might win, he might lose. But he's the kind of special talent that can be a foundation of your team, and the proposed offer is fair, even if bumped a little.

If the idea is rejected initially, doesn't mean it couldn't be re-visited again. At worst, he's under control for more than a few years. But he might also jump at the chance to guarantee the rest of his life and his family's. I'd make the offer.

[chpettit19]

42 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Agreed, but only if it’s a massive bargain like that. Relievers shine really bright and burn out fast. The Twins already have him locked up through age 29 season where velocity and K rate start to (on average) drop precipitously.

I'd try to lock him up through his age 31 or 32 season if he'd be open to it. Relievers are a weird bunch. If you have an elite one into their early 30s you have to do everything you can to keep them because they're so rare. The rest are interchangeable and I wouldn't invest in at all. I think Duran is an elite one, and will remain elite into his early 30s. His velo can decline in his age 30, 31, and 32 seasons and he'd still be throwing harder than the average MLB pitcher.

If I could have him locked in at much cheaper than market rates through the likely entirety of his elite years I'd do it. Diaz just got 20 mil a year from the Mets through his age 34 season (with an opt out and buy out mixed in). I'd try to lock Duran up now for the chance to save myself significant money down the road by buying out his first 2 or 3 years of free agency. Lower spending clubs can't take too many risks with long-term deals, but this is one I'd do. Basically locking in cost certainty on Buxton, Correa, and Duran for the rest of this decade. You can build a really nice roster with those 3 well below market values.