Can Joey Gallo Rebound from Rock-Bottom in Minnesota?

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins are signing Joey Gallo to a one-year, $11 million contract coming off the worst year of his career. That description might not even quite do it justice.

Gallo, by his own admission, lived out his worst nightmare this past season. Now, he comes to Minnesota seeking redemption and a reset.

Image courtesy of Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

 

Before we talk about Joey Gallo at his worst, let's talk about Joey Gallo at his best, which is the form he'll seek to recapture in a make-good contract with the Twins.

From 2017 through 2021, Gallo slashed .208/.338/.485 with 110 home runs in 428 games. He was an All-Star twice and won two Gold Gloves. He was worth 3+ fWAR in three of four non-COVID seasons, and 2.8 in the other. For reference, here are the Twins players who have managed to put up 3+ fWAR in a season over the past two years: Byron Buxton (twice), Jorge Polanco, Carlos Correa, Luis Arraez, Josh Donaldson.

Gallo was at his absolute best in 2021, despite a .199 batting average that will cause many old-schoolers to roll their eyes. He led the league in walks (and yes, strikeouts) while blasting 38 home runs for the Rangers and Yankees. Gallo is a three-true-outcomes guy, but when it's clicking – as it was pretty consistently for five seasons ahead of 2022 – he's perhaps the best there is in that mold. 

Which helps explain why he's been acquired over the past two seasons by a couple of the foremost championship contenders in Major League Baseball: the Yankees acquired him from the Rangers at the 2021 deadline, and the Dodgers acquired him from New York this past deadline.

Of course, that brings us to the present situation. Gallo was straight-up horrible in 2022. There's simply no way around it. And it happened in the worst setting possible. Maybe you've heard: Yankees fans aren't too forgiving.

When he was dealt away from the Yankees this year, a New York Post article reflected on "Gallo’s nightmare tenure in The Bronx," suggesting he would "go down as one of the biggest trade busts in Yankees history." 

The experience was none too pleasant for Gallo himself.

"I don’t go out in the streets," Gallo said in an interview upon departing from New York. "I really don’t want to show my face too much around here."

"I went through a lot of adversity and I really had to question myself a lot," he added. "My confidence suffered. I would say I hit rock bottom for the big leagues. So for me, I just was trying to remember to be a good teammate, play the game the right way, play the game hard and not do something stupid that I’d regret. I learned a lot about myself, I guess. Baseball is a tough game. But it definitely made me stronger because not many people have gone through what I’ve gone through."

Unfortunately, things didn't improve much for Gallo in Los Angeles, where the expectations and pressure didn't exactly diminish. He slashed .162/.277/.393 in 44 games with the Dodgers, finishing the year with a miserable 0.6 fWAR and 0.2 bWAR, and with that, it was off to free agency for the first time.

Needless to say, Gallo didn't find a very receptive market. And that's how he wound up on the Twins with a one-year, $11 million deal, looking to make good and rebuild his market. He likely would've made more than $100 million had he reached the open market last offseason, adding to the frustration he's no doubt feeling.

A big payday remains possible for Gallo. He needs to earn it, and he knows that. So he chooses to head to the more easygoing, low-pressure environment of the Twin Cities in hopes of rebuilding his value. Sounds familiar, huh?

We saw a similar narrative play out just a year ago when the Twins acquired Gary Sanchez from New York in the Josh Donaldson trade. In that case, going to Minnesota wasn't the player's choice, but the storylines about a return to prime form after escaping from the bright lights of the Bronx naturally took shape. Sanchez had his own public drama with Yankees fans and media.

As we now know, the Sanchez's redemption story with the Twins didn't quite play out as he hoped – it was another sub par campaign that reaffirmed his fade from glory and now leaves him struggling to market himself in free agency. 

There's good reason to believe Gallo will be a different story: namely, his peak performance is not so dreadfully far in the rearview mirror. Whereas Sanchez came to the Twins with just one decent year in his past four, Gallo's been good-to-great every year BUT one. 

It's somewhat rare for a former standout player to re-emerge as a star after many consecutive years of below-average performance. It's fairly common for steadily productive players to rebound after one down year. As poorly as Gallo played in 2022, that's all it was at this point. Now he enters his age-29 season with huge personal stakes.

Signing Gallo is hardly a worthwhile signature move of the offseason, but it does represent the first true effort by the front office to raise the 2023 team's ceiling, as opposed to filling holes and bolstering its floor. We need more of that going forward.

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[D.C Twins]

"Can (fill in the blank) Rebound From Rock Bottom? "  should be the Twins annual marketing campaign.

Nick... you need to trademark this ASAP!

[PDX Twin]

I'd be OK with this signing if it were a minor-league contract. For $11m? Not so much.

It's like paying $100 for an undrinkable bottle of Gallo... I fear that Joey will be washed down the drain by mid-season.

[olerud]

terrible signing

 

[LewFordLives]

Ignore the $11 million (which is an absurd amount).......what hole does he fill on this team?   This is the most bizarre nonsensical signing I can remember.

[roger]

Feel much better about this signing after reading this, Nick, compared to the 500 or so comments last night that were less than favorable.  Still gotta wonder if the Twins overpaid, but it was Boras they were dealing with, wasn’t it?

[tony&rodney]

Of course he can. So can Miguel Sano. 

[USAFChief]

"Gallo's been good-to-great every year BUT one."

 

Ah...no. he's had one good to great half-season (2019).

 

 

[CRF]

I would have rather kept Gio for around the same money. We didn't need Gallo, and he's not worth $11 mil. 

[adorduan]

I have to ask. Nick, does it get tiring to be the cheerleader for all the crap this front office does?

[Heistyman]

Can we at least sign good ballplayers.  Guys that can put wood on the ball so we at least stand a chance of getting a hit.  No one wants to see this dude shaking his head walking back to the dugout 200 times.  Not to mention the $11 million we dished out, we could have signed Andrew Chafin or a very good reliever for that and filled a need.  Geez this sounds like a Bill Smith move.

[Greglw3]

25 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

Ignore the $11 million (which is an absurd amount).......what hole does he fill on this team?   This is the most bizarre nonsensical signing I can remember.

The hole in RF where the incumbent has never done any of the following, all of which Gallo has:

Hit 38 Home runs

Hit 40 Home Runs twice

Won 2 gold gloves

Named to the all-star team 2 times

Stolen 20 consecutive bases, as Gallo has as of now.

Had 111 walks in one season (2021).

That hole.

[Greglw3]

26 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

"Gallo's been good-to-great every year BUT one."

 

Ah...no. he's had one good to great half-season (2019).

 

 

Gallo has had 4 good-great (3 good to very good, 1 great) seasons as defined by OPS+ 109, 118, 121, 145.

[D.C Twins]

I think that Flavine collectively made the same face as Gallo in the picture above after whiffing in free agency with presumably a ton-o-budget to work with. 

[SanoMustGo]

I'll expect the worst.  I need to see him produce...He should be playing top level softball...not MLB.

[sweetmusicviola16]

4 minutes ago, SanoMustGo said:

I'll expect the worst.  I need to see him produce...He should be playing top level softball...not MLB.

Courtesy of you last night. Thanks.

 

.166 in high leverage situations. .156 in a close game. .179 in a tie game.

 

This guy actually stinks. Rock bottom? When has he ever not been there?

[chpettit19]

56 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

"Gallo's been good-to-great every year BUT one."

 

Ah...no. he's had one good to great half-season (2019).

 

 

Is it my turn to tell you to stop? He's got 2 gold gloves and is widely known around the league as a great defender. But we'll just focus on the offensive numbers from 2017-2021 where Nick claims he was good to great, and you claim he was good to great for half of 1 season.

He was tied for 72nd in baseball with a 117 wRC+ for those 4 combined seasons. During that same time frame the Twins had exactly 2 hitters with 117 or better wRC+ (Garver 123 and Cruz 157). During those 4 seasons he accumulated 14.4 fWAR. That tied him for 40th in baseball for those 4 years. The Twins top WAR producer during that time was Buxton who accumulated 12.1 fWAR. In those 4 years he was 56th in baseball in OPS at .834. 1 spot behind Garver who was at .835. Cruz and his .984 was the only other Twin above him.

That must have been one heck of a half-season to get him into those rankings in the entire sport over a 4 year span. Like the best half season ever probably.

[SanoMustGo]

9 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Is it my turn to tell you to stop? He's got 2 gold gloves and is widely known around the league as a great defender. But we'll just focus on the offensive numbers from 2017-2021 where Nick claims he was good to great, and you claim he was good to great for half of 1 season.

He was tied for 72nd in baseball with a 117 wRC+ for those 4 combined seasons. During that same time frame the Twins had exactly 2 hitters with 117 or better wRC+ (Garver 123 and Cruz 157). During those 4 seasons he accumulated 14.4 fWAR. That tied him for 40th in baseball for those 4 years. The Twins top WAR producer during that time was Buxton who accumulated 12.1 fWAR. In those 4 years he was 56th in baseball in OPS at .834. 1 spot behind Garver who was at .835. Cruz and his .984 was the only other Twin above him.

That must have been one heck of a half-season to get him into those rankings in the entire sport over a 4 year span. Like the best half season ever probably.

That's  not the problem..it's his lack of situational hitting.  We have enough guys who are poor situational hitters.  He will hit a bunch of HR's when the game is not in doubt, either way.  That's not what makes a winner.  He does not help a team win based on his situational numbers.  In fact, he fits right in with most everyone else in the lineup.  I'll only praise him IF helps The Twins win.  Until then, he is the LAST thing this team needs.

[chinmusic]

"Can Joey Gallo Rebound from Rock-Bottom in Minnesota"?

Depending on how that is read,  it could be a headline for next season.

Uplifting article, though.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, SanoMustGo said:

That's  not the problem..it's his lack of situational hitting.  We have enough guys who are poor situational hitters.  He will hit a bunch of HR's when the game is not in doubt, either way.  That's not what makes a winner.  He does not help a team win based on his situational numbers.  In fact, he fits right in with most everyone else in the lineup.  I'll only praise him IF helps The Twins win.  Until then, he is the LAST thing this team needs.

And that's all well and good, but there's very few people here who are saying he's bad because of his situational hitting. Let's not pretend that's what these complaints are about. And my comment was very directly a response to chief's comment that Gallo wasn't good for those 4 years, but instead just half a season. People can still be mad at the signing without pretending he wasn't a significantly above average hitter over a 4 year period of time.

[SanoMustGo]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

And that's all well and good, but there's very few people here who are saying he's bad because of his situational hitting. Let's not pretend that's what these complaints are about. And my comment was very directly a response to chief's comment that Gallo wasn't good for those 4 years, but instead just half a season. People can still be mad at the signing without pretending he wasn't a significantly above average hitter over a 4 year period of time.

That has been my complaint from minute one. After last season, I don't need to see any more of that.  He most likely will make the problems the offense had last year worse. Unless he completely changes his approach to hitting.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, SanoMustGo said:

That has been my complaint from minute one. After last season, I don't need to see any more of that.  He most likely will make the problems the offense had last year worse. Unless he completely changes his approach to hitting.

Yeah, just going to have to agree to disagree that a 117 wRC+ makes an offense worse. If he returns to his Texas self from those 4 years he makes the team better whether you like his style of hitting or not. If he's his NY or LA self he doesn't.

[SanoMustGo]

Just now, chpettit19 said:

Yeah, just going to have to agree to disagree that a 117 wRC+ makes an offense worse. If he returns to his Texas self from those 4 years he makes the team better whether you like his style of hitting or not. If he's his NY or LA self he doesn't.

This organization is also dumb enough to keep Garlick on the roster and trade one of the young guys

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, SanoMustGo said:

This organization is also dumb enough to keep Garlick on the roster and trade one of the young guys

That's a whole different conversation that this post isn't about, and we don't need another post that turns into just ranting about the FO so let's just keep it to Gallo and the topic of the original article, please.

[Doctor Gast]

"Signing Gallo is hardly a worthwhile signature move of the offseason, but it does represent the first true effort by the front office to raise the 2023 team's ceiling, as opposed to filling holes and bolstering its floor. We need more of that going forward."

We don't need any adding to an already abounding glut of corner OF lefty bats. Ideally we need to maintain 3 such players we need to trade the other 3 to address our other needs of SS, frontline SP and near MLB ready catcher prospect. IMO RPs & impact RH bat can still be had in FA.

None of those in this glut has especially high value, which could we trade? Gordon? no way he's too valuable to us for us to lose and I believe he has a higher ceiling. Kepler, Larnach and Kirloff are low in their trade value and I deem their future has higher ceilings than Gallo this coming year. That leaves only Wallner, which many will not like to hear. There's interest in Kepler, but are they willing to give his true value in a trade injunction for a frontline SP or just a couple of lottery tickets? Maybe we can get good value good value from Wallner & Kepler. Now with the addition of Gallo we need to trade one more player who will that be? Or maybe Kiriloff's rehabilitation isn't going so well? Then why don't they tell us?

Yankees have the same mindset on hitting as we do, hit moonshots, elevate launch angle etc. The Yankees wrecked his swing and I don't think we can fix it. Gallo (like Jeffers) is going down the same road as Sano.

IMO we aren't raising any ceiling, but adding to a problem & not filling any holes.

 

[sweetmusicviola16]

7 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Yeah, just going to have to agree to disagree that a 117 wRC+ makes an offense worse. If he returns to his Texas self from those 4 years he makes the team better whether you like his style of hitting or not. If he's his NY or LA self he doesn't.

I know one thing based on his career, if we're trailing 5-3 with two runners on in the ninth, Joey better not be ever at the plate.

[tony&rodney]

Upon reflection I want to apologize to Nick Nelson for making a sarcastic remark that Sano could also rebound. Nick Nelson (and others) puts in the time and effort to write articles for Twins Daily and I do appreciate that. It makes sense to try and see the positive, which I mostly do. Sorry Mr. Nelson.

It is fair to say that I am not a fan of 200 strike outs or the style of baseball that Gallo brings to the game. I think this move will further alienate the younger fan base which wants a faster pace of action. 

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

I know one thing based on his career, if we're trailing 5-3 with two runners on in the ninth, Joey better not be ever at the plate.

Why? What are his career numbers when down 5-3 with two runners on in the ninth?

[sweetmusicviola16]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Why? What are his career numbers when down 5-3 with two runners on in the ninth?

In that type of scenerio. In the .160's. Sorry that doesn't cut it.

[Kal Lis]

I hope Gallo reverts to the 3.5 WAR/year form that he had prior to New York/Los Angeles. 

I don't think it's prudent to bet $11 million on that happening.

This organization doesn't seem to do great work on reclamation projects, Last year Sanchez was supposed to be a "he'll benefit from a change of scenery guy." He improved defensively, but his bat didn't.