AFTER the lockout, what do the Twins need to do?

[DocBauer]

PLEASE, this is NOT supposed to be more angst about what WASN'T done or how PO'd and disappointed we all are...me included...before the lockout, in regard to to opportunities that passed by because the FO either was caught off guard by rapid signings, or just decided they were taking a different course that we can only guess at, speculate at, etc. 

This post is about WHAT DO THEY DO NOW?

To be any sort of competitive team in 2022 vs a re-build...which we are told is not coming...and there IS still a nucleus on hand...there are 4 primary areas to address for 2022:

1] SP

2] SP

3] SS

4] At least one solid BP option to augment what is on hand vs just depth and flier possibilities. 

I will begin.

I have always felt the Twins would make at least ONE trade for a SP for 2022. The names, the organizations, are out there. I still believe a trade will be made. Oakland and Cincinnati may be the best opportunities for such. Each team has tantalizing options, some with SP options with varying amounts of control. I am not going to name a single player or trade proposal because I'm leaving the forum up to you all. 

So who do you feel makes the most sense to trade for? Do we look at Castillo and pay a ransom? Or do we look at Oakland for one of 3 arms with different control options?

We need at least one more SP option. It makes ZERO sense for the Twins to accumulate milb position depth position and pitching wise and then just churn them over when they speak about sustainability. So unless they find a steal somewhere,  they are going to need to spend some $ on another FA.

Kershaw and Greinke are out of the equation for various reasons, IMO.

Kikuchi is still out there, unless I've missed his returning to Japan. Pineda is still a smart re-sign, who I liked much better than Bundy, even though Bundy might have a higher ceiling.

I DON'T like a trade for a quality arm and Pineda and Bundy but it may be a reality with some hope. And that hope may be disastrous, but I'm not sold.

The ONE remaining arm that COULD make a difference is Rodon. Thus far, everyone has passed, including the Dirty Sox. Some rumors have Chicago passing due to payroll and young pitching they want to work in. He was OUTSTANDING before missing time due to injury, yet again, but seemed sound at the end of the season. 

If the medicals seem OK, do the Twins take a shot on a 1yr deal for a potential difference maker who could make anywhere from 20-25 GS? Could he and Pineda and Bundy be a sort of bridge of production while Ober and Ryan and our top prospects work their way in?

I have to say I don't think Story fits in the Twins plans at SS, IMO. The years, the numbers, questions about offensive sustainability, I don't think he fits. They need a SS. It's going to be a short signing for someone, and I'm OK with that if they really have faith in Lewis.

Despite the urgency that other organizations felt to sign SP, the RP market is pretty much open still. There are some interesting arms still out there to add at least ONE quality arm for the pen to POTENTIALLY have a quality pen. And they need to make sure the BP is deep and ready to go, with depth, hopefully with a guy or two has options to shuttle.

Just my thoughts. But this OP is about what the Twins need to do after the lockout and the CBA is settled.

What would YOU DO?

[gman]

I always thought 2022 was a try-out season. I think the Twins will have a tough time finishing 4th in their division with the signings that Detroit made. I don't think anyone in ownership was convinced that spending $60 million on pitching to finish 2nd was a worthwhile goal. 

If and when spring training starts give their rookie shortstop options and Gordon a look. Then kick the tires on short stop free agents if all fail(probably). Resort to Polanco at shortstop and Arraez at second. No added roster cost.

The same process with starting pitchers. Bring in the starters from double A and Triple A and take a look. In mid March work out the free agent pitchers still available.

Get Kirilloff, Larnach and Miranda at bats in spring, along withe shortstop possibles, 

Trade Donaldson, who probably doesn't want to be here.

Finish last.

 

[beckmt]

I am hoping Winder will be here at the start of the year, with several others close behind.  They cannot be blocked, so resigning a Pineda or the like seems to make the most sense.  Be interesting to see the course the Twins take.  

[Old fox]

There is always a market for very good & excellent player. There is nothing wrong with signing or trading for outstanding players and letting them play until prospects become equal or better. Then the team has residual value that the team can trade to improve its weakest position.  

[Squirrel]

36 minutes ago, gman said:

Trade Donaldson, who probably doesn't want to be here.

Did I miss something? From what do you draw that conclusion?

We won't get anything for him in a trade. And it creates more holes that you think, both offensively and defensively. Now is not the time to trade him, unless he's demanding a trade, but I don't get that vibe from him, unless, as I asked above ... did I miss something?

[Brock Beauchamp]

The first priority HAS to be the acquisition of an acceptable, if not good, starting pitcher. At minimum, Pineda or better  

The second priority is a live human being capable of playing shortstop. 

[TwinsDr2021]

36 minutes ago, gman said:

I always thought 2022 was a try-out season.

If that is the FO thoughts, then the first thing they should do is apologize to the fans and tell them they are lowering the price of all seats, maybe offer even bigger discounts if you bring a child to the games. Because if that is their thoughts and they don't  kiss the butts of the fans, it will be quite empty at Target Field next year. And if they don't figure out how to stream their games, well.....

If they could convince Rondon to take a syndergaard contract next year, they should do that. I love Castillo, don't like the two years of control, unless they are convinced he will sign an extension.

Frankie Montas is the A's pitcher I think they should go after, he has 3 years of control, they say they will take Manaea and his 10.2 off their hands to help get the deal done. (I am good with Bassitt as well, but his contract is 8.8, so they might want to get rid of Manaea more)

Then find a SS they feel comfortable throwing out there every day.

 

[gunnarthor]

They need pitching. Again, they have a playoff caliber offense more or less in place, even with a black hole at short. But they need to be able to pitch better than the 2013 squad. I'm honestly not sure how they'll get it and I'm sure their plan (bullpen games galore) will annoy me, but that's what they need to do.

[roger]

Thanks Doc for a nice recap of what is needed.  Will they do it?  Only time will tell.

Although I have never been a huge fan of Pineda, I understand he does like it here and has pitched well, when available.  So I have no problem with them bringing him in to go with a trade.  I would prefer that they do a good job of discovery and put together another trade similar to either the Odorizzi or Maeda trades.  One required only a secondary prospect, whereas Maeda took more powder.  Either works for me, but I don't see some big blockbuster deal for one of the big names from the Reds or A's.  If they are successful, we should get a solid starter who I am not familiar with.

As for shortstop, I continue to believe/hope that Lewis is the long-term answer.  Yes, he isn't going to be ready on April 1.  So I would go with Polanco/Gordon sharing shortstop with Polanco moving back to second full time when Lewis arrives in late spring or early summer.

More important will be MLB figuring out how all of us who have cut the cord with cable can watch the Twins in 2022.  If they don't, doesn't make a hell of a lot of difference to me what they do prior to opening day.

[terrydactyls]

What would I do?  Let's start with the infield.  The first thing I would do is call the Mets and offer them Donaldson.  They need a 3B and their owner thinks the luxury tax is a goal to achieve and not a punishment.  Ask them how much salary they would like the Twins to contribute this year and make the deal for whatever they offer.  Miranda is now the Twins 3B.  Polanco must stay at 2B so step 2 is to sign Iglesias to be the SS.  That leaves Kirilloff for 1B.  The infield is set.  Now we move to the outfield and there are two directions I can go depending on Kepler.  If there is any interest by any team for including Kepler in a trade for pitching, then he's gone.  If not, he is the RF.  If he is traded, then I would use spring training to decide who should be the RF.  The choices are Larnach, Rooker, Martin, and Lewis.  The best spring wins RF.  The second best spring wins LF.  I wouldn't mind an outfield of Martin, Buxton, and Lewis.  No fly ball would ever touch the grass.  The catching I don't touch.  For extra position players and DH, I would have Celestino, Arraz, and Gordon.  Now for the pitching.  For the last several years, the front office has refused to trade pitching prospects because they were highly valued.  Well, now is the time to prove it.  Currently, there are three starters with Bundy, Ober, and Ryan.  Sign Pineda as a mentor (or whatever else you want to call him).  The remaining starters will be picked from a hat (meaning spring training performance) from Winder, Sands, Balazavic, and Strotman.  The relief bullpen already has Rogers, Duffy, Thielbar, Alcala, and Duran.  I would sign Knebel and add Jax and Stashak.

That would be my 2022 Twins with a budget to please the owner and maybe enough curiousity to put butts in the seats.

[chpettit19]

Pick a plan/direction and attack it. Push their chips in on a plan. That's what I'd like to see. I didn't dislike the plan/approach to last offseason. It obviously didn't work out, but I could, and can, see the logic in the approach and what they were trying to do. This offseason needs to have a different plan, though, and, based on the rumors out there, I don't see what the thought process even is.

There are very few reports of them being in on any real FAs. If they really have no plans to bring in any real FAs I don't want to see them make any big trades either. The pitchers available via trade are mostly on 1 or 2 year deals. I don't think anybody would make an argument that the Twins would be likely to extend any of those guys so they're really bringing in someone for 1 to 2 years depending on team performance and if they spin them for prospects after 2022. I don't see that as a useful strategy. If they're not bringing in FAs to help in 2022 it's time to go young, keep your cheap, controllable young player depth and don't give any of it up to bring in a guy who won't be enough to make the team competitive in 2022. 

Signing Story to a 5 or 6 year deal would be my Plan A, first move coming out of the lockout. Day 1 I'd lock him in. If they can then also afford both Rodon and Pineda then I'd be good with short term moves like bringing them in on 1 or 2 year deals and trading some real prospects for another arm. If signing Story means they can only afford Pineda types I'd be more interested in an Odo/Maeda type trade that costs 1 prospect for a controllable arm.

Just don't play the middle with some halfway "compete in 2022" moves and some "building for 2023 and beyond" moves. Pick a plan and go all in on it. I'd be far more understanding of a lackluster 2022 if they've put themselves in position to spend and compete in 2023 and beyond. If they go halfway on competing in 2022 and hurt their chances to spend and compete in 2023 and beyond by doing it I'd be far less understanding.

[chpettit19]

13 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

  I would sign Knebel 

Just an FYI, but Knebel signed with Philly for 1 year and $10M.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Agreed on the needs, my execution of the goals would change based on timing of CBA agreement.

no matter what I’d sign Pineda and Iglesias to be my Starting pitching and SS floor ASAP.

from there it depends on where we are in the schedule. If it’s past Pitchers and Catchers reporting for ST but before opening day, trading for a very good starter and signing a solid traditional setup man makes a ton of sense. If we’re late March or later, I’d look to stock up (2 or more) on roster churn piggy-backing marginal starters off the DFA limbo and skip the setup man. It would be get me by on 3 inning starts for 3 spots of the rotation (including Bundy and Jax) followed by long relief (another 3 innings) until Winder and the next wave of reinforcements proves ready.

[Otto von Ballpark]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

The second priority is a live human being capable of playing shortstop. 

No reason the Twins should artificially restrict their market like that! A non-living or non-human shortstop could prove to be a market inefficiency.

[USAFChief]

3 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

What would I do?  Let's start with the infield.  The first thing I would do is call the Mets and offer them Donaldson.  They need a 3B and their owner thinks the luxury tax is a goal to achieve and not a punishment.  Ask them how much salary they would like the Twins to contribute this year and make the deal for whatever they offer.  Miranda is now the Twins 3B.  Polanco must stay at 2B so step 2 is to sign Iglesias to be the SS.  That leaves Kirilloff for 1B.  The infield is set.  Now we move to the outfield and there are two directions I can go depending on Kepler.  If there is any interest by any team for including Kepler in a trade for pitching, then he's gone.  If not, he is the RF.  If he is traded, then I would use spring training to decide who should be the RF.  The choices are Larnach, Rooker, Martin, and Lewis.  The best spring wins RF.  The second best spring wins LF.  I wouldn't mind an outfield of Martin, Buxton, and Lewis.  No fly ball would ever touch the grass.  The catching I don't touch.  For extra position players and DH, I would have Celestino, Arraz, and Gordon.  Now for the pitching.  For the last several years, the front office has refused to trade pitching prospects because they were highly valued.  Well, now is the time to prove it.  Currently, there are three starters with Bundy, Ober, and Ryan.  Sign Pineda as a mentor (or whatever else you want to call him).  The remaining starters will be picked from a hat (meaning spring training performance) from Winder, Sands, Balazavic, and Strotman.  The relief bullpen already has Rogers, Duffy, Thielbar, Alcala, and Duran.  I would sign Knebel and add Jax and Stashak.

That would be my 2022 Twins with a budget to please the owner and maybe enough curiousity to put butts in the seats.

Maybe it's just me, but that sounds like a plan for a 42-120 season. 

 

No thanks.

[Doctor Gast]

I'd be overjoyed if FO surprised me and finally put together a big trade to gain a frontline pitcher. We have a lot of redundant players that can be moved to go for it. I'd love a fair deal from the Reds but I don't think that'll happen. Montas (OAK) would be the best bet.

What looks like that's shaping up is a opener/ long relief combo pitching staff. After getting rid our only work horse (Berrios), signing Bundy, having only rookie pitchers and I see the Twins taking a chance and go after short innings FA pitchers. I see Rondon possibly playing a role in this experiment, together with our AAAA pitchers rotating in and out. Even if the Twins chooses to go this route I'd still like them go after 1 or 2 pitchers via trade that can go  5+ innings.

After taking care of pitching we need to fill our holes at SS and CF back up. Both positions  we could get by with short term solutions because soon we'll finally have players to fill them in Celestino, Lewis and Martins. CF back up has been a huge deficit for a long time and for us to be serious about competing this needs to be intelligently addressed. $ that's not spent on frontline pitching could be used to go after Story if the $ is right. If we don't go after Story, the other adequate options are very limited. The only viable option is Simmons.

If Taylor isn't ready to be a closer, I don't feel comfortable throwing Alcala in that role. I'd like the Twins pick one up, one way or another even if Taylor is OK. 

[TwinsDr2021]

5 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

What would I do?  Let's start with the infield.  The first thing I would do is call the Mets and offer them Donaldson.  They need a 3B and their owner thinks the luxury tax is a goal to achieve and not a punishment.  Ask them how much salary they would like the Twins to contribute this year and make the deal for whatever they offer.  Miranda is now the Twins 3B.  Polanco must stay at 2B so step 2 is to sign Iglesias to be the SS.  That leaves Kirilloff for 1B.  The infield is set.  Now we move to the outfield and there are two directions I can go depending on Kepler.  If there is any interest by any team for including Kepler in a trade for pitching, then he's gone.  If not, he is the RF.  If he is traded, then I would use spring training to decide who should be the RF.  The choices are Larnach, Rooker, Martin, and Lewis.  The best spring wins RF.  The second best spring wins LF.  I wouldn't mind an outfield of Martin, Buxton, and Lewis.  No fly ball would ever touch the grass.  The catching I don't touch.  For extra position players and DH, I would have Celestino, Arraz, and Gordon.  Now for the pitching.  For the last several years, the front office has refused to trade pitching prospects because they were highly valued.  Well, now is the time to prove it.  Currently, there are three starters with Bundy, Ober, and Ryan.  Sign Pineda as a mentor (or whatever else you want to call him).  The remaining starters will be picked from a hat (meaning spring training performance) from Winder, Sands, Balazavic, and Strotman.  The relief bullpen already has Rogers, Duffy, Thielbar, Alcala, and Duran.  I would sign Knebel and add Jax and Stashak.

That would be my 2022 Twins with a budget to please the owner and maybe enough curiousity to put butts in the seats.

I respect your opinion, but if the Twins started next year with Lewis and Martin in the OF, Celestino as DH, and that cast of characters pitching I would be done with them forever.

[KFEY93]

A lot. 

[Major League Ready]

20 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

What would I do?  Let's start with the infield.  The first thing I would do is call the Mets and offer them Donaldson.  They need a 3B and their owner thinks the luxury tax is a goal to achieve and not a punishment.  Ask them how much salary they would like the Twins to contribute this year and make the deal for whatever they offer.  Miranda is now the Twins 3B.  Polanco must stay at 2B so step 2 is to sign Iglesias to be the SS.  That leaves Kirilloff for 1B.  The infield is set.  Now we move to the outfield and there are two directions I can go depending on Kepler.  If there is any interest by any team for including Kepler in a trade for pitching, then he's gone.  If not, he is the RF.  If he is traded, then I would use spring training to decide who should be the RF.  The choices are Larnach, Rooker, Martin, and Lewis.  The best spring wins RF.  The second best spring wins LF.  I wouldn't mind an outfield of Martin, Buxton, and Lewis.  No fly ball would ever touch the grass.  The catching I don't touch.  For extra position players and DH, I would have Celestino, Arraz, and Gordon.  Now for the pitching.  For the last several years, the front office has refused to trade pitching prospects because they were highly valued.  Well, now is the time to prove it.  Currently, there are three starters with Bundy, Ober, and Ryan.  Sign Pineda as a mentor (or whatever else you want to call him).  The remaining starters will be picked from a hat (meaning spring training performance) from Winder, Sands, Balazavic, and Strotman.  The relief bullpen already has Rogers, Duffy, Thielbar, Alcala, and Duran.  I would sign Knebel and add Jax and Stashak.

That would be my 2022 Twins with a budget to please the owner and maybe enough curiousity to put butts in the seats.

 

17 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Maybe it's just me, but that sounds like a plan for a 42-120 season. 

 

No thanks.

If the current team minus Berrios and Donaldson is even remotely close to a 42 win team we we should just do a complete rebuild.   

[TopGunn#22]

They need to prioritize what is #1, #2,  #3 and #4. 

Is #1 signing a front of the rotation SP like Rodon ?  Rolling the dice on his tremendous upside while gambling his health doesn't betray him and the Twins ?  Or is it filling the gaping hole at SS ?  Number 2 will be determined by what #1 is.  Do they use the money they have to spend on a SS like Story ??   Do they make a blockbuster trade with Oakland to acquire Montas and possibly another SP ?   

Number 3 is signing Big Mike to fill a hole in the rotation.  And number 4 is a trade with the Royals or Cardinals for Mondesi or DeJong if signing Story isn't a priority or an attempted signing falls through.  

There are a LOT of things the twins FO needs to do and do quickly once the lockout ends.  How they prioritize them and how aggressively they go after their priorities will be telling.  They need to plan for several contingencies depending on what they CAN and CAN'T do and on how the FA and trade market develops.  

[tony&rodney]

23 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

For the last several years, the front office has refused to trade pitching prospects because they were highly valued.  Well, now is the time to prove it.  Currently, there are three starters with Bundy, Ober, and Ryan.  Sign Pineda as a mentor (or whatever else you want to call him).  The remaining starters will be picked from a hat (meaning spring training performance) from Winder, Sands, Balazavic, and Strotman.  The relief bullpen already has Rogers, Duffy, Thielbar, Alcala, and Duran.  I would sign Knebel and add Jax and Stashak.

Interesting choices. Knebel signed for $10 million already. This might be a fun experiment. Are you prepared to lose 90-110+ games though? Gambling is a ton of fun but the house always wins.

[Brock Beauchamp]

On 12/9/2021 at 10:10 AM, terrydactyls said:

The remaining starters will be picked from a hat (meaning spring training performance) from Winder, Sands, Balazavic, and Strotman.

I think Dobnak will be in the opening day rotation. I'm not sure how I feel about that being the case, but I suspect it will happen (I'm not as down on Dobnak as many others here).

[Richie the Rally Goat]

On 12/9/2021 at 8:44 AM, Brock Beauchamp said:

 

The second priority is a live human being capable of playing shortstop. 

Palacios hit 109 wRC+ in AA last year and is clearly viewed as a utility player at best in MLB. I get not wanting to rush Martin or Lewis. Why not roll with Palacios? What’s the risk? Simmons and his 54 wRC+ again?

[Kipp35]

On 12/9/2021 at 8:44 AM, Brock Beauchamp said:

The first priority HAS to be the acquisition of an acceptable, if not good, starting pitcher. At minimum, Pineda or better  

The second priority is a live human being capable of playing shortstop. 

I feel that "live human being" should be from their farm system. They have got to figure out what they have. We keep waiting to see Gordon and the like, but just do it already. 

Martin and Lewis need to play SS and Martin can be used to cover 100+ games in CF, too. Miranda should be given innings at 3B. Kirlloff to 1B and get those young OF'ers up here, too.

Embrace the suck for 2022 and be better prepared for 2022 offseason and a push in 2023.

[Brandon]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I think Dobnak will be in the opening day rotation. I'm not sure how I feel about that being the case, but I suspect it will happen (I'm not as down on Dobnak as many others here).

I think Dobnak has shown to be a perfect #5 starter on a winning team.  

[Brandon]

What I think the Twins need to do the rest of this offseason.

sign Pineda 2 year 20-22 million

trade for Bassit and Andrus  (Andrus gives us the short term SS and also lowers the prospect cost to acquire Bassit)

sign Bassit to a 4 year 60-64 million contract.  It would be nice to have a good pitcher locked up a few years to anchor the rotation at a reasonable cost.

sign a few relievers to a low cost 1 year deal.  

maybe sign Goodrum to a 1 year 2 million so we have competition for SS position and let the loser of the competition be a back up to continue to apply pressure to be good.  

Send Falvine's favorite arm chair GM season tickets......  Just sayin if I am gm for a day might as well get a perk out of it....

[South Dakota Tom]

Trade (A/A+ level prospects) with Cardinals for DeJong to play ss.  Take a gamble on Rodon (4/75?).  I think JD is worth $15M/yr to someone and let Miranda/Arraez play 3b.  That pays most of Rodon.  Kiriloff is 1b, Sano is DH.  Larnach Buxton Kepler.  Pineda or trade with Cincy for Mahlke or Sonny Gray.  Add a $5-8M back of bullpen arm.  Then be aggressive with AAA arms for reinforcements.  Rodon, Gray, Bundy, Ryan, Ober.   Garver Kiriloff Polanco DeJong Miranda, Larnach Buxton Kepler Sano.  Bench is Arraez, Gordon Celestino and Jeffers.

If all breaks right, a decent team.  If it doesn’t then we need to see the Winders and Balazovics, Martin, Lewis on a shorter promotion timeline to angle toward 2023.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

On 12/9/2021 at 9:44 AM, Brock Beauchamp said:

The first priority HAS to be the acquisition of an acceptable, if not good, starting pitcher. At minimum, Pineda or better  

The second priority is a live human being capable of playing shortstop. 

Brock, I would be interested in your opinion about putting Lewis at SS and letting him learn to swim in the big leagues. The Twins aren't going to win the pennant in 2022 (alas)  and the Twins need to find out if Lewis can cut the mustard at SS. Why not do it now?.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Brock, I would be interested in your opinion about putting Lewis at SS and letting him learn to swim in the big leagues. The Twins aren't going to win the pennant in 2022 (alas)  and the Twins need to find out if Lewis can cut the mustard at SS. Why not do it now?.

Lewis will absolutely need time in the minors. His ability to stick at short was questionable *before* he destroyed his knee.

And that's not even mentioning his offensive ability after not playing baseball much in the past 2+ years.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

55 minutes ago, Kipp35 said:

I feel that "live human being" should be from their farm system. They have got to figure out what they have. We keep waiting to see Gordon and the like, but just do it already. 

Martin and Lewis need to play SS and Martin can be used to cover 100+ games in CF, too. Miranda should be given innings at 3B. Kirlloff to 1B and get those young OF'ers up here, too.

Embrace the suck for 2022 and be better prepared for 2022 offseason and a push in 2023.

What he said.