.624 OPS Spring

[Azviking101]

Anyone else worried about this lack of hits so far in spring? Dead last in team OPS. Spring is spring but .624 is putrid.

Most starts have averages in the .100s

In 2019 before the record season they had a .832 OPS. Everything about this offense went to the toilet after Rowson left.

 

I can’t help but be really worried about the offense this year. Donaldson and Cruz will be fine, but guys like Kepler, Polanco, Garver, Sano, really worry me.

[shimrod]

I've seen only a couple of the spring training broadcasts, but it looks to me as though the players are swinging for the fences on every pitch they don't take. I've seen some hard hit outs and a lot of swing and miss. If the ball is actually softer this year that strategy may not be a winner. 

[big dog]

Twins hitters are getting fewer ABs than hitters on a lot of other teams, which may have something to do with a poor performance (I'd prefer to call it a slow start). I checked OPS stats for those with a qualifying # of plate appearances.

Matt Carpenter, .330

Tim Anderson, .481

Nolan Arenado, .523

Michael Brantley, .609

Trea Turner, .615

Jose Abreu, .641

Marcus Semien, .647

Justin Turner, .655

 

None of the Twins are on the list. Hopefully when they start getting more and regular ABs the bats will pick up. Seems like a reasonable thing to expect, anyway.

 

[stringer bell]

Spring doesn't count and hitters as a rule are far more reliable and predictable than pitchers. That said, yeah it seems time that the bats start producing. I worry most about Sanó and Buxton. 

[Doctor Gast]

2020 was a terrible year, I think it'll take a little extra time for them to find their rhythm. But they will all come around eventually.

[Dman]

 

Anyone else worried about this lack of hits so far in spring? Dead last in team OPS. Spring is spring but .624 is putrid.
Most starts have averages in the .100s
In 2019 before the record season they had a .832 OPS. Everything about this offense went to the toilet after Rowson left.

I can’t help but be really worried about the offense this year. Donaldson and Cruz will be fine, but guys like Kepler, Polanco, Garver, Sano, really worry me.

 

The Twins appear to be all about hard hit rate which somewhat correlates to the harder a player hits the ball the greater the OPS.  I am starting to have my doubts about that theory though because when players sell out for power they tend to hit everything pull side and the shift can kill them as they generally only use half the field.  Also with the ball being more dead you lose the HR's that power those hard hit rate OPS stats.  

 

Honestly I think it would be beneficial for guys to try and go Opo more often.  If they don't and can't hit HR's I think it is going to be a long year for our hitters.  Hopefully the Twins adjust and bats get better.

[nicksaviking]

Since I’ve learned the hard way that great spring training stats rarely correlate to regular season stats, I have to assume the opposite is also true. Oh Ryan LaMarre, what could have been.....

 

It’s been awhile so forgive me if I’ve forgotten it, but I’m pretty sure we are still waiting to see Kirby Puckett’s first career Spring Training hit. I believe every year, the last week of March was reserved for Minnesota sports writers to declare that his career appeared over.

[Squirrel]

I’ll start worrying toward the end of April.

[puckstopper1]

 

Spring doesn't count and hitters as a rule are far more reliable and predictable than pitchers. That said, yeah it seems time that the bats start producing. I worry most about Sanó and Buxton. 

 

So why is it that people who say Spring Training hitting stats don't count are also gushing over fantastic Spring Training pitching numbers?

 

Are not the two connected?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

At least the B squad is scoring some runs today...

[Azviking101]

And just like that some good numbers today. No clue what’s up with Kepler though. He hasn’t gotten a hit since March 2

[raindog]

They’re 29th in team BABIP this spring. They’ll be ok. 
 

Edit: Although, dead last in walks by a fair margin is a bit concerning. 

[jkcarew]

Twins have key players whose offensive value is very dependent upon fly balls going over the fence. Low BA/OBP guys. If they’re not hitting doubles and home runs, when they put the ball in play, they’re going to be offensive liabilities. Not going to win a championship waiting for Kepler, Sano, Buxton to turn into high BA/OBP players. Meanwhile, a couple of the key guys you’re counting on to balance some of that with some OBP or BA...like Donaldson and Cruz, Kirilloff...have obvious risk/issues. So, fair to be concerned given the potential difference in the ball, and also given results thus far this spring. Panic, no. Concern, yes.

 

 

[KFEY93]

 

I've seen only a couple of the spring training broadcasts, but it looks to me as though the players are swinging for the fences on every pitch they don't take. I've seen some hard hit outs and a lot of swing and miss. If the ball is actually softer this year that strategy may not be a winner. 

Thats been their entire MO since September of 2019. Theres no competitive at bats or looking to square up the ball and get a solid hit. Just looking for homers. 

[Bickle19]

Reading the comments on this website you would forget that the Twins have played at basically a 100 win pace for 2 years straight. 

[KFEY93]

 

And just like that some good numbers today. No clue what’s up with Kepler though. He hasn’t gotten a hit since March 2

He cant spread the ball around. He hits into the shift literally every at bat. Did that almost the entirety of last year. When was the last time he got a hit to left field? 

[KFEY93]

 

Reading the comments on this website you would forget that the Twins have played at basically a 100 win pace for 2 years straight. 

And whats that % in the play offs...when things like this actually matter? Yeah, thats what I thought. 

[Dodecahedron]

If it is true that the Twins are always "swinging for the fences" while knowing the MLB deadened the ball this year, it's going to be a depressing season. 

 

You can bet that a key team in the East is adjusting. Let's see if the Twins can adjust too.

[wsnydes]

 

Reading the comments on this website you would forget that the Twins have played at basically a 100 win pace for 2 years straight. 

If division titles were the ultimate goal, I'd be happier about that. But since they're not, I couldn't care less. That pace hasn't translated to even a single win in the postseason.

 

That said, I'm not worried about the bats yet. Get back to me at the end of April.

[jud6312]

I generally don't like sounding the alarm bells early, and this opinion isn't based on what is or isn't happening in Spring Training, but this team feels (and has for a while) a lot like the 2011 team.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I generally don't like sounding the alarm bells early, and this opinion isn't based on what is or isn't happening in Spring Training, but this team feels (and has for a while) a lot like the 2011 team.

I don't know. The 2011 team had serious issues with Morneau and Nathan going into the season (and Mauer too), plus the wildcard Nishioka in the lineup. I don't really see comparables on the 2021 club right now, even if the team could potentially under-perform expectations.

 

Just for fun, I went back and looked at our 2011 spring training stats. Check out the spring ERAs for this rotation:

 

Baker 2.66

Blackburn 1.73

Duensing 2.49

Pavano 2.16

Liriano 4.82 (but the best K numbers)

Slowey 1.69

[Halsey Hall]

Rowson loss was the biggest loss in years.  I said that last year, and the playoffs showed it.  Offer the job to Dave Kiriloff.

[Dodecahedron]

 

I generally don't like sounding the alarm bells early, and this opinion isn't based on what is or isn't happening in Spring Training, but this team feels (and has for a while) a lot like the 2011 team.

 

The 2011 team took a dive, but the pitchers over the next few years were far worse. The Twins could survive another 2011, and heck all teams have them, if they don't respond by fielding AAA pitchers and AA defenders for the following 5+ years.

[jkcarew]

 

Reading the comments on this website you would forget that the Twins have played at basically a 100 win pace for 2 years straight. 

Well, the club fell all the way to middle of the AL pack last year offensively. And then was beyond anemic in the post season. So, that in itself would spawn some speculation regarding weather 2020 was anomaly or trend. I’d say that the ‘concern’ regarding how many are swinging it this spring so far is perfectly relevant.

[puckstopper1]

 

Well, the club fell all the way to middle of the AL pack last year offensively. And then was beyond anemic in the post season. So, that in itself would spawn some speculation regarding weather 2020 was anomaly or trend. I’d say that the ‘concern’ regarding how many are swinging it this spring so far is perfectly relevant.

 

I agree, JK.

 

Today's game is another example with only 3 stinking hits again today by what could be the Opening day lineup against a prospect who has a bright future but isn't expected to break camp with the big league team and 3 relievers over 8 innings.

 

Thus the concerns continue...

[Drew]

I'm pretty surprised that anyone cares at all about Spring Training stats. I feel like every single year either the concerns from slow starters or the helium on someone knocking the stiches off the ball wind up largely looking really silly by April 30th. 

[Dodecahedron]

 

Reading the comments on this website you would forget that the Twins have played at basically a 100 win pace for 2 years straight. 

 

Wouldn't we all take two 87-win paces for 2 years and 2 championship rings instead?

 

Zero playoff wins matters. I'm glad the Twins can beat the socks off teams in the two Central divisions, but no one will remember this. Are the Twins trying to go 41 - doughnut? That will be remembered, but aren't they already the most futile team in the history of any sport?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm pretty surprised that anyone cares at all about Spring Training stats. I feel like every single year either the concerns from slow starters or the helium on someone knocking the stiches off the ball wind up largely looking really silly by April 30th. 

Yeah, it has been studied and the consensus is that spring training stats are not particularly predictive for players or for teams (although I've read there is some correlation in team SB numbers, but as a team strategy decision more than a performance one).

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Wouldn't we all take two 87-win paces for 2 years and 2 championship rings instead?

 

Zero playoff wins matters. I'm glad the Twins can beat the socks off teams in the two Central divisions, but no one will remember this. Are the Twins trying to go 41 - doughnut? That will be remembered, but aren't they already the most futile team in the history of any sport?

Zero postseason wins certainly matter but the fact that it matters doesn't mean there's a correlation between the current team's hitting approach and their previous postseason failure.

 

I'm as frustrated as anyone by this postseason drought (and moreso than most, I'd wager, given how I've been running a Twins-based website for damned near the entire drought) and while we all want to see wins, there isn't an easy solution that fits a simple narrative. The Twins pitching failed in the 2019 postseason (along with their defense, woof). The Twins pitching succeeded in the 2020 postseason (despite their defense, woof again). In the end, it's five consecutive games of underperformance by some/all of the team and there's no silver bullet to be found, the Twins just need to freakin' PLAY BETTER BASEBALL.

 

How do the Twins get there? Hard to say but it's not as simple as "hit differently", especially in the context of March 2021 when games don't even matter.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I've been running a Twins-based website for damned near the entire drought

Are you a superstitious person? Could your website(s) be linked to the curse?