Dean Kremer vs. Bailey Ober: Who Should Stay in Minnesota?

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn, Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

As banged up and inconsistent as the Twins’ starting rotation was throughout the 2026 season, plenty of reasons remain for optimism as we turn the page toward 2027. 

Joe Ryan and Pablo López should both be back in the rotation next season, and assuming both are healthy, that gives the Twins a strong foundation at the top. Taj Bradley also just racked up 205 strikeouts this season, making him one of just 11 pitchers across Major League Baseball to reach that mark. He figures to be a very strong No. 3 option moving forward. Then there’s Mick Abel, Connor Prielipp and Zebby Matthews, all of whom have flashed at different points and could emerge as quality starting options during the 2027 season.

Finally, there’s Dean Kremer and Bailey Ober. Or, perhaps more accurately, Dean Kremer or Bailey Ober.

The two pitchers are in very similar positions heading into the offseason. Both will be in their final year of team control in 2027, and both figure to be back-end rotation options at similar prices. The two are scheduled to start the final two games of the season tonight and tomorrow. That leads to an interesting question: Which pitcher, if either, should the Twins keep around next season?

While I think it’s entirely possible that neither pitcher is back in Minnesota next year, if I had to choose between the two, I’d keep Kremer and bid farewell to Ober. Let’s do a little side-by-side comparison, and we’ll start with the basics.

It’s worth emphasizing that his sample is much smaller than Ober’s, as Kremer has thrown just 47 ⅓ innings in Minnesota compared to Ober’s 126. Still, the difference is notable across the board. Kremer currently has a 3.80 ERA and 3.81 FIP in his time with the Twins compared 4.21 and 4.52 for Ober. Kremer has given up hits and homers at a lower rate as a result of giving up less hard contact. Neither guy strikes out a ton of hitters, but Kremer is at least staying relatively close to one per inning whereas Ober has fallen far below that.

Again, Kremer has done this over a much smaller sample, so there’s certainly some caution that needs to be exercised when looking at those numbers. But there’s another important piece of the puzzle here: The Twins have made some slight mechanical adjustments to Kremer, and so far, those tweaks appear to have worked. The biggest change has been raising his arm angle slightly. That's helped his fastball run up in the zone more consistently, while allowing his secondary pitches to dive down more effectively. That might sound like a relatively minor adjustment, but it's had a noticeable impact.

 

Ober has one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball. His ability to stay afloat in spite of this is impressive, but gives him a razor-thin margin for error. Kremer has been able to generate more chases out of the zone, and when hitters do chase, they’re making less contact. That gives his entire arsenal a better chance to play, because his fastball is doing a better job of setting up everything else. And while we all know and love Ober’s electric 88 MPH fastball, it just doesn’t set up the rest of his arsenal in quite the same way Kremer’s fastball does.

That becomes especially evident when looking at the swing-and-miss numbers. Kremer is generating whiffs on 28.7% of all swings, which puts him in the top quarter of all major league pitchers. Ober, meanwhile, is getting whiffs on just 20% of swings, putting him in the bottom tenth of the league. That’s a significant difference for two pitchers who are likely competing for essentially the same role in the rotation.

The one area where both pitchers have struggled is keeping the ball on the ground. Neither has been particularly effective at generating ground balls, but even there, Kremer holds a slight advantage. And that’s especially important when talking about Ober. It’s no secret that the long ball has been an issue for him throughout his career. His massive 6-foot-9 frame and more than seven feet of extension toward the plate make him one of the most unique pitchers in baseball, but those physical advantages haven’t been enough to consistently prevent opposing hitters from doing damage. And again, any small further loss of velo or stuff at age 31 could lead him into unusable territory.

One thing Ober has going for him is a history of demonstrating greater upside. For multiple years, he was one of the Twins' best starters bordering on frontline caliber. Coming into the 2024 season, he was being talked about as a potential dark horse Cy Young candidate, combining his extension and command with an excellent changeup that made him incredibly difficult to square up. But sadly that version of Ober may be gone for good. 

At this point, the Twins have several young pitchers who could take over the back end of the rotation, and while Kremer isn't as exciting of a name as someone like Abel or Prielipp, he's shown enough since arriving in Minnesota to make me think there’s still something there. Maybe the Twins ultimately decide they don’t want either pitcher back in 2027. With both entering their final year of team control, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the organization explore other options. But if the choice comes down to Kremer or Ober, I’m keeping Kremer.

The mechanical changes have already produced encouraging results, his underlying numbers have been better, and his fastball appears to be setting up the rest of his arsenal more effectively. Ober deserves credit for what he’s accomplished in Minnesota, and it’s a shame to see a pitcher who once looked like such an intriguing long-term piece reach this point. But sometimes a fresh start is best for both sides. If I’m the Twins, I’m keeping Dean Kremer and letting Bailey Ober start fresh with a new team next season.

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[Patzky]

Depends. Is that cheating?

Is Pablo ready to start, Ryan still here, Zebby showing more consistency, Abel able to go more than two or three innings as he reaches, Festa able to pitch at all? Rojas, bullpen, perpetual Saint, or other? Labor stoppage.. will that impact the timelines of Pablo and Abel?

There's never enough starting pitching.. but I wouldn't necessarily put Mr Pohlads limited money, no matter how much more they purport to spend, toward starting pitching. Kremer can surely start and Ober can start in a spot and do long relief. Maybe the question should be, Ober or Adams?

[TJSweens]

Ober can go. He is declining steadily. His loss of velocity has more than offset the advantage a 7 foot extension gives him. 

I'm on the fence with Kremer. I don't want a 31 year old back of the rotation starter interfering with guys like Prielipp, Matthews, Able and Rojas taking their next steps. At the same time, history has shown the Twins need rotation depth that runs about 7 pitchers.

[DJL44]

They are unlikely to find a free agent reliever for the amount Bailey Ober will get in arbitration who is significantly better than using Ober in the bullpen. Ober should want to move to the bullpen to regain a couple MPH and extend his career. 

[LastOnePicked]

The Twins have to start pushing for higher and higher upside. Ober is one of my favorite Twins of this era, but I think it's probably time to move on.

[mike8791]

Good topic, but maybe the more relevant question is: do the Twins have enough rotation depth to trade Ryan, who almost certainly leaves after 2017?  Perhaps keeping both Ober & Kremer would allow them to swing a trade for an established, controllable middle lineup bat who can play 1B.  The offense seems to be the Twins biggest weakness and the rotation the biggest strength, so why not trade from strength to fill a major weakness?

The FO should not blow this opportunity to trade Ryan like they did at this past deadline to trade Jeffers.  Seems the rotation has enough depth to allow for a Ryan trade if, and only if, they can add a 30HR/100RBI potential iB who can play defense.  I think Lopez, Bradley, Mathews and Prielipp can provide a solid rotation, augmented by Ober, Kremer, Rodon for #4 & 5 spots.  The biggest concern in my mind - does Zoll have the chops to pull together this high level trade?

 

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

They are unlikely to find a free agent reliever for the amount Bailey Ober will get in arbitration who is significantly better than using Ober in the bullpen. Ober should want to move to the bullpen to regain a couple MPH and extend his career. 

Agreed. Kremer in the #4 spot in the rotation. Ober as the 6th starter/piggyback/long man in the BP. They already tried him in that role in a game with Kremer earlier this month. I could foresee a Kremer and Ober combo basically functioning as the number four or number five starter. And I say that even after I say we should trade Joe Ryan. I think the top three are some combination of Bradley, Lopez, and. Prielipp, with Abel, Matthews (again, I think he should be traded for a 2B), Rojas, and Grayson Rodriguez (acquired in a trade of Lewis) all fighting for the fifth starter spot.

[djvang]

Keep both. You can never have enough pitching.

[bjorks]

Ober out of the BP isn't any worse than a Topa, Orze, Adams at this point. His velo ticked up in the 3 innings he threw and all we hear about is his stuff plays up. It wasn't about Ober not hitting 95-96, he never could, but his 91 plays up, much more than his 88. If he's in the BP and makes a spot start, again not a bad option, but expensive to put him in the pen I admit. 

[thelanges5]

1 hour ago, Patzky said:

Depends. Is that cheating?

Is Pablo ready to start, Ryan still here, Zebby showing more consistency, Abel able to go more than two or three innings as he reaches, Festa able to pitch at all? Rojas, bullpen, perpetual Saint, or other? Labor stoppage.. will that impact the timelines of Pablo and Abel?

There's never enough starting pitching.. but I wouldn't necessarily put Mr Pohlads limited money, no matter how much more they purport to spend, toward starting pitching. Kremer can surely start and Ober can start in a spot and do long relief. Maybe the question should be, Ober or Adams?

Agree on the start of the season take. Some of it may depend on when the season actually starts.  When will Pablo and Abel be ready to contribute? Does Ryan have enough value to move now or wait until the trade deadline? We might need them both.

[LyleCole]

I think Taj Bradley is the only pitcher that you can pencil in the starting rotation at the beginning of 2027.   

Pablo Lopez?  Wishful thinking.  Its not out of the realm of possibility, but pitchers who miss significant time in 2025 and then a full season in 2026 due to elbow problems are not guaranteed returning to the major leagues and pitching at the same level they once did.  That is why you look at certain careers of solid pitchers, who then suddenly bounce around the league with a few innings here one year and few the next.   

Joe Ryan?   This is much more probable but there is also a trade element.  But, I would add you are looking at a 30 year old pitcher who the past two seasons has faded in the 2nd half of the season.   In 2026 Ryan had a 2.85 ERA in the first half of the season, a 6.82 in the 2nd.  Similarly in 2025 he had 2.72 ERA first half, 4.67 ERA in the 2nd.   Too much of my posting are very negative, but I think these collapses are a bad sign that could predict a pitcher that is coming into a streak of arm problems.

I believe Kremer will be penciled in the rotation in 2027.  I think his arbitration number will be much lower than Bailey Ober's.  In fact, I believe it is very likely that the Twins will not offer Ober arbitration because they do not want the risk of Ober getting a value above the $5.2 million he received this year.   So I think it is highly probable they just let him walk.

But it is also possible both Kremer and Ober are in the rotation to start the season because there really isn't any other pitchers in the pipeline that are on track to be added to the roster.  Riley Quick is still at least a year away and that is probably the guy who is the top of the list.

So Bradley-Ryan will be the top 2.  They will pray Lopez can actually pitch but it is doubtful (and I would not be surprised if he starts the season on the 60 day DL then rehab back through the minors).   Then Kremer.  Then winners between Matthews-Prielipp-Abel and maybe even Festa.

 

[DataNerd]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

They are unlikely to find a free agent reliever for the amount Bailey Ober will get in arbitration who is significantly better than using Ober in the bullpen. Ober should want to move to the bullpen to regain a couple MPH and extend his career. 

This also gives you the option to trade him in May when some competitor gets the injury bug and is desperate for someone not awful.

[DJL44]

5 minutes ago, LyleCole said:

I believe Kremer will be penciled in the rotation in 2027.  I think his arbitration number will be much lower than Bailey Ober's.  In fact, I believe it is very likely that the Twins will not offer Ober arbitration because they do not want the risk of Ober getting a value above the $5.2 million he received this year.   So I think it is highly probable they just let him walk.

Which is crazy because he provided 2 WAR for $5M. That’s an incredible bargain. That’s a $15-20M cost in free agency.

[Mike Sixel]

17 minutes ago, DataNerd said:

This also gives you the option to trade him in May when some competitor gets the injury bug and is desperate for someone not awful.

Can you name May trades?

[Patzky]

16 minutes ago, DataNerd said:

This also gives you the option to trade him in May when some competitor gets the injury bug and is desperate for someone not awful.

Someone Not Awful looked pretty good by the time Simeon Woods Richardson was making his final start as a Twin. Whatever happened to that guy anyway..

[Patzky]

12 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Which is crazy because he provided 2 WAR for $5M. That’s an incredible bargain. That’s a $15-20M cost in free agency.

Ober gets a bum rap in the forum because he doesn't light up the radar gun. 

[Andy MacPhail]

I agree with the consensus that you can never have enough pitching especially SPs. Twins always run out of gas when they get towards the end of the season. Why's that? Not enough depth/ poor workload management. Also, Ober has shown that he can adapt; he can shift to lower velo, go to the BP, he does what's needed. IMO, you try to keep a guy like that. He's not that expensive.

[HarmonK03]

I would rather keep just one and it would be Ober.  Bring Kremer back to pitch out of the bullpen and provide depth.  But I would prefer not to block the younger guys development with more 30 something average pitchers.  Preilipp and Matthews have earned the right to start spring training in the rotation and others need to beat them out.  I think starting Kremer tomorrow over Matthews is wrong and not the way to develop your pitchers. 

And please no piggybacking for either of these pitchers, either they are in the bullpen and provide length when needed or start but piggybacking just doesn't work.

[ewen21]

2 hours ago, Patzky said:

Depends. Is that cheating?

Is Pablo ready to start, Ryan still here, Zebby showing more consistency, Abel able to go more than two or three innings as he reaches, Festa able to pitch at all? Rojas, bullpen, perpetual Saint, or other? Labor stoppage.. will that impact the timelines of Pablo and Abel?

There's never enough starting pitching.. but I wouldn't necessarily put Mr Pohlads limited money, no matter how much more they purport to spend, toward starting pitching. Kremer can surely start and Ober can start in a spot and do long relief. Maybe the question should be, Ober or Adams?

I would say it is a tremendous shame we didn't Bradley around to back up Santana.  He's been a heck of a surprise and he is only 25.  

[Mike Sixel]

Bradley, Matthews and preilip did not run out of gas . 

Also, how deep do people think most teams are in good starting pitching? I don't think people are realistic about that at all. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Came here that I would bet on Kremer having more success in a starting role than I would Ober next year.

Mick Abel threw a bullpen off the mound today at target field and looked good. Just wanted that shared. That’s from Dan Hayes.

Just assuming Pablo won’t be available isn’t fair. He may not be what he was in 2023 again, but he is already throwing too.

I HAVE to think they bring in at least one outside pitcher for the rotation too. And maybe they trade Ryan? Who knows. Having churn of the roster isn’t a bad thing, even if it feels like you can never have enough pitching.

 

[HarmonK03]

Why would they bring in another arm, you can't have depth of 10 or 12 arms that is not feasible.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Non tender Ober.  The $7M or so saved will get a good reliever - better than Ober would be out of the pen. Kremer is your #5.  The other spot besides the big three should be one of Prielipp/Abel/ Matthews, with two held as backup in St Paul  

 

 

[MeleMouth]

Ober? Kremer? Sounds like someone who ruined his coffee.

[MeleMouth]

2 hours ago, ewen21 said:

I would say it is a tremendous shame we didn't Bradley around to back up Santana.  He's been a heck of a surprise and he is only 25.  

Johan Santana? You mean when Bradley was five years old?

[Linus]

I would offer Ober a 2 year $12 million deal. His role would be long man in the pen and spot starter. He’s easily better than the guys we’ve been running through the 7th and 8th spots. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

All Ober has done in 2026 is be the Twins 2nd or 3rd best pitcher. One could even argue the 2nd best ahead of Ryan who had a dramatic second half fade. So we want to get rid of him, even non tender. I'm not concerned about spending 7 mil on him. Hold this team to spending more not let them get a free pass and spend less. Ober has learned to get people out with diminished stuff. That has value. Getting a K isn't the only way to pitch.

[Coach]

Keep both, they did good, and we will need them.  Long seasons. Plus, I like the contrast of styles compared to our other pitches, especially if they end up in the bullpen.

[Coach]

5 hours ago, mike8791 said:

Good topic, but maybe the more relevant question is: do the Twins have enough rotation depth to trade Ryan, who almost certainly leaves after 2017?  Perhaps keeping both Ober & Kremer would allow them to swing a trade for an established, controllable middle lineup bat who can play 1B.  The offense seems to be the Twins biggest weakness and the rotation the biggest strength, so why not trade from strength to fill a major weakness?

The FO should not blow this opportunity to trade Ryan like they did at this past deadline to trade Jeffers.  Seems the rotation has enough depth to allow for a Ryan trade if, and only if, they can add a 30HR/100RBI potential iB who can play defense.  I think Lopez, Bradley, Mathews and Prielipp can provide a solid rotation, augmented by Ober, Kremer, Rodon for #4 & 5 spots.  The biggest concern in my mind - does Zoll have the chops to pull together this high level trade?

 

30HR/100RBI potential iB who can play defense.  Clemens is the answer you're looking for, plus we have him through 2029?

[Coach]

BTW, it looks like we have a pitching drought in the minor leagues.  Acquiring proven pitching is so expensive.  Keep our proven pitchers.