Dean Kremer vs. Bailey Ober: Who Should Stay in Minnesota?

As banged up and inconsistent as the Twins’ starting rotation was throughout the 2026 season, plenty of reasons remain for optimism as we turn the page toward 2027. 

Joe Ryan and Pablo López should both be back in the rotation next season, and assuming both are healthy, that gives the Twins a strong foundation at the top. Taj Bradley also just racked up 205 strikeouts this season, making him one of just 11 pitchers across Major League Baseball to reach that mark. He figures to be a very strong No. 3 option moving forward. Then there’s Mick Abel, Connor Prielipp and Zebby Matthews, all of whom have flashed at different points and could emerge as quality starting options during the 2027 season.

Finally, there’s Dean Kremer and Bailey Ober. Or, perhaps more accurately, Dean Kremer or Bailey Ober.

The two pitchers are in very similar positions heading into the offseason. Both will be in their final year of team control in 2027, and both figure to be back-end rotation options at similar prices. The two are scheduled to start the final two games of the season tonight and tomorrow. That leads to an interesting question: Which pitcher, if either, should the Twins keep around next season?

While I think it’s entirely possible that neither pitcher is back in Minnesota next year, if I had to choose between the two, I’d keep Kremer and bid farewell to Ober. Let’s do a little side-by-side comparison, and we’ll start with the basics.

It’s worth emphasizing that his sample is much smaller than Ober’s, as Kremer has thrown just 47 ⅓ innings in Minnesota compared to Ober’s 126. Still, the difference is notable across the board. Kremer currently has a 3.80 ERA and 3.81 FIP in his time with the Twins compared 4.21 and 4.52 for Ober. Kremer has given up hits and homers at a lower rate as a result of giving up less hard contact. Neither guy strikes out a ton of hitters, but Kremer is at least staying relatively close to one per inning whereas Ober has fallen far below that.

Again, Kremer has done this over a much smaller sample, so there’s certainly some caution that needs to be exercised when looking at those numbers. But there’s another important piece of the puzzle here: The Twins have made some slight mechanical adjustments to Kremer, and so far, those tweaks appear to have worked. The biggest change has been raising his arm angle slightly. That's helped his fastball run up in the zone more consistently, while allowing his secondary pitches to dive down more effectively. That might sound like a relatively minor adjustment, but it's had a noticeable impact.

Ober has one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball. His ability to stay afloat in spite of this is impressive, but gives him a razor-thin margin for error. Kremer has been able to generate more chases out of the zone, and when hitters do chase, they’re making less contact. That gives his entire arsenal a better chance to play, because his fastball is doing a better job of setting up everything else. And while we all know and love Ober’s electric 88 MPH fastball, it just doesn’t set up the rest of his arsenal in quite the same way Kremer’s fastball does.

That becomes especially evident when looking at the swing-and-miss numbers. Kremer is generating whiffs on 28.7% of all swings, which puts him in the top quarter of all major league pitchers. Ober, meanwhile, is getting whiffs on just 20% of swings, putting him in the bottom tenth of the league. That’s a significant difference for two pitchers who are likely competing for essentially the same role in the rotation.

The one area where both pitchers have struggled is keeping the ball on the ground. Neither has been particularly effective at generating ground balls, but even there, Kremer holds a slight advantage. And that’s especially important when talking about Ober. It’s no secret that the long ball has been an issue for him throughout his career. His massive 6-foot-9 frame and more than seven feet of extension toward the plate make him one of the most unique pitchers in baseball, but those physical advantages haven’t been enough to consistently prevent opposing hitters from doing damage. And again, any small further loss of velo or stuff at age 31 could lead him into unusable territory.

One thing Ober has going for him is a history of demonstrating greater upside. For multiple years, he was one of the Twins' best starters bordering on frontline caliber. Coming into the 2024 season, he was being talked about as a potential dark horse Cy Young candidate, combining his extension and command with an excellent changeup that made him incredibly difficult to square up. But sadly that version of Ober may be gone for good. 

At this point, the Twins have several young pitchers who could take over the back end of the rotation, and while Kremer isn't as exciting of a name as someone like Abel or Prielipp, he's shown enough since arriving in Minnesota to make me think there’s still something there. Maybe the Twins ultimately decide they don’t want either pitcher back in 2027. With both entering their final year of team control, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the organization explore other options. But if the choice comes down to Kremer or Ober, I’m keeping Kremer.

The mechanical changes have already produced encouraging results, his underlying numbers have been better, and his fastball appears to be setting up the rest of his arsenal more effectively. Ober deserves credit for what he’s accomplished in Minnesota, and it’s a shame to see a pitcher who once looked like such an intriguing long-term piece reach this point. But sometimes a fresh start is best for both sides. If I’m the Twins, I’m keeping Dean Kremer and letting Bailey Ober start fresh with a new team next season.

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