Should the Twins Have Cashed In on Joe Ryan and Pablo López?

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

With the odds of the Twins making the postseason shrinking by the day, we’re left with plenty of opportunities to reflect on the season that was and, more importantly, what could have been.

Yet another season without playoff baseball makes it easy to look back at all of the things the Twins should’ve done differently. There are plenty of decisions that can be debated, from roster construction to the trade deadline, but in the Twins’ case specifically, I think there’s a pretty compelling argument that Derek Falvey missed an opportunity to reshape the organization.

And two names immediately come to mind: Joe Ryan and Pablo López.

Let’s go back to this past offseason. There was plenty of buzz that Falvey and the Twins could be forced into dealing one or both of their veteran starters as the organization looked to reshape the roster and potentially cut payroll. As it turns out, neither one was moved. Hindsight is always 20/20, of course, but I think Falvey missed out by not moving on from at least one of them before the season started.

And that’s especially easy for me to say because I was of that belief at the time as well. I thought Ryan, in particular, was a pitcher the Twins should seriously consider moving while his value was at its highest. López was a little more complicated, but there was still a window to make something happen. Now, that window looks considerably smaller.

The Pablo López Problem

López’s situation is obviously a little different because he suffered a season-ending elbow injury in February, just before the season began. There’s no way the Twins could have known that was coming.

But they still had November, December, and January to explore a potential trade. López was healthy at the time, and while his contract certainly limited the number of teams that could have been interested, he was still a proven starting pitcher who had been one of the better members of the Twins’ rotation. Instead, Falvey and the Twins held onto him, and now his trade value has taken a massive hit. López is coming off elbow surgery, missed the entire 2026 season and is entering a contract year in 2027. Even if he returns healthy and pitches well next season, there’s no guarantee he gets back to where he was pre-injury. That puts the organization in a somewhat awkward position.

If the Twins genuinely believe they can make a run at the postseason next year, then you probably want López in your rotation. A healthy version of him could be a major part of a competitive pitching staff. But if the Twins don’t win with him in 2027, that’s going to be a pretty bad look.

Falvey had an opportunity to move López when his value was much higher, chose not to, and now Jeremy Zoll’s front office could potentially be stuck with the consequences of that decision. There’s still a chance López comes back and proves to be an important piece, but the opportunity to maximize his value has almost certainly passed.

Ryan Was Different

I think the same general argument can be made for Joe Ryan, only with even more conviction.

I was of the belief that the Twins should’ve traded Ryan before the season, and I felt even more strongly about it when the trade deadline rolled around. Unlike López, there would have been a very active market for Ryan. He was healthy, he was pitching at a high level, and, like López, he was under team control for multiple seasons. That combination is incredibly valuable in today’s game. Contenders are constantly searching for starting pitching, but controllable frontline starters are especially difficult to find. A team acquiring Ryan wouldn’t have just been getting a rental for the stretch run. They would have been getting a quality starter who could remain in the rotation for years. That should have put the Twins in an excellent position to demand a significant return. Instead, Falvey kept him.

And again, hindsight is always 20/20. The Twins probably believed they could still make a postseason push. Maybe they believed Ryan was too important to the future of the organization to move. Maybe the offers simply weren’t good enough. But looking at where things stand now, it’s fair to ask what exactly the Twins gained by keeping him.

They aren’t a playoff team WITH Ryan. If the goal was to compete this season, that plan clearly didn’t work. And if the goal was to build toward the future, it’s difficult to argue that keeping Ryan was the best way to maximize the organization’s long-term return. That’s ultimately what makes the decision, to me, extra frustrating. Ryan was the most valuable trade chip on the entire roster, and Falvey had multiple opportunities to cash in on him. He chose not to.

The Pressure Is On

There’s still a path where all of this works out for the Twins. If they believe they can make a serious run in the American League next season, having both Ryan and López in the rotation would obviously be a good thing. Quality starting pitching is difficult to find, and there’s no reason to pretend otherwise. But that puts an awful lot of pressure on 2027.

Both pitchers are entering contract years, and both now have less trade value than they did when the Twins had the opportunity to move them. If the Twins make the playoffs next season and Ryan and López help lead the rotation there, nobody will care about the trades that weren’t made. If they fall short again, however, those decisions are going to be scrutinized heavily. And that’s where this ultimately becomes less about Ryan and López and more about Falvey.

Maybe Ryan and López will ultimately prove that decision was the right one. But if the Twins fall short again in 2027, it’s going to be awfully difficult to look back at these past two seasons and say Falvey maximized the opportunities in front of him. Sometimes building for the future means knowing when to move on from the players who can bring the biggest return. The Twins had that opportunity, and they might not get another one.

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[DJL44]

They have one more chance to trade Joe Ryan this offseason. He will bring back less than he would have earlier, but it is still the right move for this franchise.

[Vanimal46]

Anything and everything should be on the table after missing the playoffs in 5 out of the last 6 seasons. 

[chpettit19]

Without reading the article, the answer to the question in the title is "Yes." Unequivocally, YES!

[PuckettPond]

A fire sale is needed. Trade anyone of value bringing back youth, enthusiasm, talent, hope & change. Give the fans something to believe in. This year's trade deadline moves were Awful getting players in trades where we could get in free agency this winter. They helped get us losses not wins.

[TNtwins85]

Half measures have been the story of the Minnesota Twins since the early 2000’s when I started my fandom.
Not adding a legitimate starter to pair with Radke. Not adding another “Ace” level pitcher to pair with Johan to win a playoff series. Not adding star level RH bat to split up Mauer and Morneau. Not adding another star level bat rental when Morneau went down in 2010. Not trading star level players when it all fell apart in 2011 to speed up the rebuild. Not adding a star level starter in 2019. Not getting anyone else to help in 2023. Then not building on 2023 and instead scaling back. All while the next star level prospect fell short that you could have used to get these guys.

Half measures are the story of the “new millennium” Twins. Hamstringing a championship in the name of “being competitive.” A story as old as time. At least my time as an in depth Twins fan. Unless Tom Pohlad succeeds in “No half measures”, I assume it will be the same.

[Nashvilletwin]

To answer the question in the headline:

[Patzky]

I'm not sure that dumping your top two starters in the off-season would have been accepted any better than dumping your top three relievers during the regular season.

"Cheap Pohlads". I can hear it already

 

[Mike Sixel]

30 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Without reading the article, the answer to the question in the title is "Yes." Unequivocally, YES!

Same. This ownership group and FO set this team back two years or more this last two seasons. 

[TheLeviathan]

I mean, this is the question put less abstractly:

31 year old, coming off an entire missed season (Lopez) and Ryan (last year of team control, another dud second half)

vs.

Franklin Arias (consensus top 10 prospect in all of baseball), Payton Tolle (and his top tier stache), and whatever you could've gotten from Lopez.

This is about as "duh" as it gets.  I'll brace myself for the downvotes from the senile and deeply delusional members of our board now.

[IndianaTwin]

25 minutes ago, Patzky said:

I'm not sure that dumping your top two starters in the off-season would have been accepted any better than dumping your top three relievers during the regular season.

"Cheap Pohlads". I can hear it already

 

So you’re saying you don’t think folks on TD would have received well the idea of an $85M payroll? 🤣

 

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

So you’re saying you don’t think folks on TD would have received well the idea of an $85M payroll? 🤣

 

They could have them signed two legit players.....

About two thirdd of the people here would have approved off the trades, at least amount the regulars. 

[thelanges5]

Oh hindsight…

Can they recoup any value now on their missed opportunities?

-Jeffers, I’d offer the QO, either they get another year or they pick up a draft pick. 
-Ryan, hopefully he pitches well in his last couple games here this season. I’m listening to any and all offers.                            
-Pablo, this will be an unpopular take, but I would try to get an extension done for him. Otherwise, he is a trade deadline candidate.

Edited 1 hour ago by thelanges5

[bean5302]

100% the Twins should have dealt Lopez. They were handed a tight budget and Lopez ate up $22MM of it and he had surplus value while his peripherals were declining. Dealing Lopez would have allowed for flexibility to address holes in the roster before the season started.

Ryan would have brought back more prospect capital for sure, but if the Twins were going to try to compete in 2026, it would have been difficult without both Ryan and Lopez.

Either way, the Twins needed to trade one of the two for sure. Standard procedure was followed though. Stand pat, roll the same team back out and see what happens.

[Mike Sixel]

12 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Oh hindsight…

Can they recoup any value now on their missed opportunities?

-Jeffers, I’d offer the QO, either they get another year or they pick up a draft pick. 
-Ryan, hopefully he pitches well in his last couple games here this season. I’m listening to any and all offers.                            
-Pablo, this will be an unpopular take, but I would try to get an extension done for him. Otherwise, he is a trade deadline candidate.

People were begging them to sell last year and this off-season. There is no hindsight for most of us in this discussion. 

[HarmonK03]

13 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

100% the Twins should have dealt Lopez. They were handed a tight budget and Lopez ate up $22MM of it and he had surplus value while his peripherals were declining. Dealing Lopez would have allowed for flexibility to address holes in the roster before the season started.

Ryan would have brought back more prospect capital for sure, but if the Twins were going to try to compete in 2026, it would have been difficult without both Ryan and Lopez.

Either way, the Twins needed to trade one of the two for sure. Standard procedure was followed though. Stand pat, roll the same team back out and see what happens.

And if this front office stays intact, it will be more of the same this offseason.  They will pick up Bell's option and maybe sign a borderline RH hitting OF that will take AB's from Jenkins and ERod.  And they will keep Kremer and Ober in the rotation.  Another 85 loss season incoming if no changes are made.

[IndianaTwin]

42 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

They could have them signed two legit players.....

About two thirdd of the people here would have approved off the trades, at least amount the regulars. 

A) How many people who think they should have traded those two also believe that they would have spent the saved money on two legit players? 

B) Considering that it takes time to make trades, what legit players would have still been available for signing after the trades?

[Jacksson]

YES

[RpR]

The grass is always greener on the other side of the hill.☢️

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

So you’re saying you don’t think folks on TD would have received well the idea of an $85M payroll? 🤣

 

You know the monies would have been reinvested... 🤣