When It Comes to Joe Ryan, Twins Have Four MLB Trade Deadline Options

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Jordan Johnson-Imagn Images

The next 16 games may determine the direction of the Minnesota Twins for years to come. The 2026 MLB Trade Deadline has become a franchise-altering moment for an organization that wasn't expected to contend this season. Minnesota has surged into a tie for the final American League Wild Card spot thanks to an impressive stretch leading into the All-Star Break, putting the club on the verge of climbing back to .500.

That unexpected success has complicated what once looked like an obvious selling period at the deadline. While the Twins have exceeded expectations, they're still trying to balance a surprising postseason push against the long-term outlook of a roster that may not yet be ready to seriously challenge for a World Series title. No player embodies that dilemma more than Joe Ryan.

Diamond Centric recently ranked Ryan as the No. 2 player with a chance to be traded before the deadline, citing his combination of durability, swing-and-miss stuff, and remaining club control as attributes that make him one of the most desirable starters available. The rankings noted that Ryan continues to miss bats at an elite level despite not overpowering hitters with velocity, relying instead on multiple fastball shapes, a deep mix of breaking pitches, and an occasional splitter that neutralizes left-handed hitters. He's also continued to pair high strikeout totals with excellent command while significantly reducing the home run issues that occasionally plagued him earlier in his career. With Ryan coming off a second consecutive All-Star appearance, his value may never be higher.

That leaves Minnesota with four realistic options.

Option 1: Trade Ryan at the Peak of His Value

If maximizing organizational value is the goal, this is likely the strongest argument. Starting pitchers carry enormous value at the deadline—especially frontline arms with another full season of team control remaining. Ryan isn't a rental. Any acquiring club would have him through the 2027 season, allowing Minnesota to command one of the biggest prospect packages available this summer.

Pitchers are also notoriously unpredictable. Ryan has established himself as one of the American League's better starters, but there are no guarantees that continues. He's faded somewhat during the second half in recent seasons, and every pitcher carries injury risk. The Twins have already experienced that harsh reality this year after Pablo López suffered an elbow injury during spring training that ultimately required Tommy John surgery.

Trading Ryan would undoubtedly hurt the 2026 club. It would also signal that the organization isn't prioritizing this year's playoff chase. However, if the Twins believe they're still a year or two away from legitimate championship contention, adding another premium group of prospects to one of baseball's highest-ranked farm systems could accelerate the next competitive window. It would be difficult for fans to accept, but championship organizations often make uncomfortable decisions before they become obvious ones.

Option 2: Hold Ryan and Trade Him This Winter

The middle ground may be waiting. Ryan remains under team control through the 2027 season, meaning Minnesota wouldn't lose much leverage by waiting until the offseason. In fact, there is a blueprint for that approach.

The Milwaukee Brewers, another small-market organization that has consistently developed high-end starting pitching, have frequently traded pitchers with roughly one season of control remaining. More often than not, those deals have come during the winter rather than at the deadline, allowing Milwaukee to better evaluate its roster before making a franchise-changing move.

The Twins could take a similar path. Waiting would also allow them to see whether this surprising second-half push develops into a legitimate postseason run. If Minnesota reaches October, Ryan would be central to those hopes.

Still, there are risks. The possibility of a looming lockout following the season could create an abbreviated offseason with a much smaller trade window than normal. If negotiations between MLB owners and the Players Association disrupt the calendar, the Twins may not have the luxury of patiently shopping Ryan throughout the winter. Instead of maximizing leverage, they could find themselves trying to complete a blockbuster under an accelerated timeline.

Option 3: Keep Ryan Into 2027 and Reevaluate at Next Year's Trade Deadline

The Twins also have the option of delaying the decision for another full year. If Minnesota believes its young core is capable of taking another step in 2027, Ryan could remain at the front of the rotation and help lead another postseason push. Should the Twins find themselves back in contention, keeping him would be an easy decision.

However, if the season unfolds differently and the club falls out of the playoff race, Ryan could become one of the premier names available at the 2027 MLB Trade Deadline.

The return likely wouldn't match what Minnesota could receive this summer. At that point, Ryan would be a true rental with only a few months remaining before free agency, limiting the number of years of team control that acquiring clubs value so highly. Even so, frontline starting pitching is always in demand at the deadline, and recent history has shown that contenders are willing to pay significant prospect capital for impact arms, even on expiring contracts.

The downside is obvious. By waiting another year, the Twins would assume another full season of injury risk and the possibility that Ryan's performance declines. They would also lose the leverage that comes with offering an additional season of team control.

Still, if the organization believes it can compete in 2027, keeping Ryan for another season while preserving the option to move him next July could provide the best balance between trying to win now and recouping value later. It wouldn't maximize his trade return, but it would give the Twins one more opportunity to contend before making a franchise-changing decision.

Option 4: Keep Ryan Through Free Agency

The simplest option may also be the riskiest. Minnesota could simply keep Ryan through the remainder of his arbitration years and allow him to anchor the rotation through the end of the 2027 season. If he departs in free agency, the Twins could extend him a qualifying offer and potentially receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere.

That strategy would allow the current core to compete while providing some long-term value if Ryan eventually leaves. But there are significant unknowns.

The current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires after the 2026 season, meaning there's no guarantee the qualifying offer system even exists by the time Ryan reaches free agency. Banking on draft compensation that may disappear would be a considerable gamble.

Even if the qualifying offer remains intact, injuries can dramatically change a player's value overnight. López's season-ending elbow injury served as another reminder that pitchers represent one of baseball's most volatile assets. Waiting always introduces the possibility that circumstances change before the Twins have another opportunity to capitalize on Ryan's value.

A Defining Decision

There isn't a wrong answer. Trading Ryan now likely maximizes his value and could further strengthen an already impressive farm system. Waiting until the winter gives the Twins more time to evaluate whether this season is the beginning of something larger while still preserving much of his trade value. Keeping him through 2027 prioritizes winning at the major league level but exposes the organization to significant financial, injury, and collective bargaining risks.

What makes the decision so fascinating is that all four paths are defensible. The Twins weren't expected to be here. Their resurgence has forced the front office to weigh the excitement of an unexpected playoff chase against the discipline required to build the next championship-caliber roster. Whatever direction they choose with Ryan won't simply shape the remainder of 2026—it could define the organization's trajectory for years to come.

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What is the best option for the Twins? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[MMMordabito]

An extension isn't an option?

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

16 minutes ago, MMMordabito said:

An extension isn't an option?

The ideal scenario is signing him to an extension.  He seems like the type of player that just continues to get better each year.  He takes good care of his body and he had an inner drive.   He needs to maintain performance throughout the year.  

He will not be traded at this years deadline unless things tragically fall apart.   I think teams are nervous for next year so won't give full value and Tom really wants to win to keep his word.  So you wait til 2027, you see if can sign to an extension.  The Twins will have money available, and there is a possibility the big market teams won't have the resources to splurge.   Could be a nice coming together of the market.   There will likely be no comp pick options.  Worst case trade him at the deadline in 2027.    

[Possumlad]

Extending both Buck & Ryan would be a great way for Pohlad to get butts in the seats. If Tom wants to redefine his early tenure as managing owner, extending both gives him a lot of goodwill & flex in other areas.

[strumdatjag]

9 minutes ago, Possumlad said:

Extending both Buck & Ryan would be a great way for Pohlad to get butts in the seats. If Tom wants to redefine his early tenure as managing owner, extending both gives him a lot of goodwill & flex in other areas.

If the Twins can’t extend Ryan before the deadline, he should be traded.  

[Andy MacPhail]

Which option that the Twins choose about Ryan (the four mentioned or extension), IMO, depends some on where Ryan wants & where the Twins at as competing & rotation development,

[CRF]

I honestly don't think he gets traded by the deadline this season. If anything, moving him after this season is a possibility. I don't know how much planning a team can make going into 2027 anyway. Yes, you should go under the assumption that there WILL be a 2027 season, but who knows what's going to happen? I hope I'm wrong, but I'd be absolutely shocked if the 2027 season starts on time, or isn't wiped out completely due to the CBA. Getting that resolved is going be a real slug-fest. 

[minman1982]

39 minutes ago, MMMordabito said:

An extension isn't an option?

I don't think an extension is likely an option because of the risks associated. All it takes is one elbow ligament to go snap and the team could be on the hook for a lot of money. I would believe Ryan would be looking for $150-200M for 4 to 6 years in an extension. For reference, Zack Wheeler signed for $126M/3 years, Jake DeGrom is getting $185M/5 years, Blake Snell has $182M/5 years, and Corbin Burnes is making $210M/6 years. I don't think it is any stretch to think that Joe Ryan is in the same league as these pitchers. Maybe you could get him to sign a deal for less money with opt out clauses, especially given the uncertainty around the collective bargaining agreement.

The question is does the team make a playoff push this year with what they currently have or do they trade him and reload for later? I personally like the idea of holding him for the rest of this season and making the decision in the off season. A few weeks ago, I would have said to trade both Ryan and Jeffers at the deadline (I still think trading Jeffers may not be a terrible idea) but the last month or so have made me think this team might have a chance. There is enough offense there to win a playoff series. Is there enough to go all the way? Probably not, but it still would be worth trying.

[mickster]

With the parity in the AL a complete rebuild is not necessary.   Win back the fans by extending both Ryan's.   Rotation is then Pablo, Joe, Taj, Abel, Bailey w/depth behind them.  Parades and Festa as BP pieces.   Then you have plenty of depth to trade some prospects for to fill in hole.   Fans will come back and farm system is set to supplement either via call ups or trades for a few years.   

[DJL44]

20 minutes ago, Possumlad said:

Extending both Buck & Ryan would be a great way for Pohlad to get butts in the seats. If Tom wants to redefine his early tenure as managing owner, extending both gives him a lot of goodwill & flex in other areas.

Buxton is already signed through 2028.

[Parfigliano]

The needing a new CBA in order to even have a 2027 season coupled with the fact that both sides completely mistrust the other really complicates this decision.

[chpettit19]

I can see the logic in all 4 options. I'd go with #1. I expect them to go with #3 or 4. 

I don't think Joe is going to sign an extension. They agreed to an option year for his last arb year next year so they've already discussed his contract situation beyond this year. He's now made a 2nd All Star game and has the chance to finally perform through an entire season and raise his contract value even more. I highly doubt he signs an extension before he hits free agency if they weren't able to buy out any FA years when discussing the option for 2027.

I don't think this team is a true contender in the way I want them to be. The rest of the league struggling so far, or them being slightly better than expectations, doesn't make them an actually good team. They're still below .500. I think 2027 and beyond should be the focus. If you don't think Joe Ryan is going to sign an extension (again, I don't) then the smart, although emotionless, thing to do is trade Ryan at his peak value and get pieces with good chances of helping those 2027 and beyond teams. 

The CBA negotiations wouldn't play a role in my decision. Make decisions based on what you know, not what you're guessing will happen in a crazy and aggressive negotiation. 

I also wouldn't use Tommy Boy's words about "being competitive" and hoped for PR boost for more ticket sales as a reason to keep Joe. The incremental boost you get now will be instantly crushed when he walks in free agency (cheap Pohlads will be the claim no matter why he leaves) and the team isn't good. The real PR and business boost they need is from a sustained, truly competitive, winning team. Not a team that is "in the playoff race" because the rest of the league is also down. 

I don't think anyone is off their rocker for wanting to go with options 2 through 4, but I'd go with #1 and give myself the best shot to truly open a competitive window moving forward. I don't expect them to, but it's what I'd do. Unless they go 11-5 before the deadline, I'd rethink things then.

[Possumlad]

5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Buxton is already signed through 2028.

Yes I'm aware of that. Which is why I said "extension." Signing both Joe & Buck to extensions at the same time would send a nice signal.

[DJL44]

3 minutes ago, Possumlad said:

Yes I'm aware of that. Which is why I said "extension." Signing both Joe & Buck to extensions at the same time would send a nice signal.

I dare you to find a fan who won’t attend games because Byron Buxton doesn’t have a contract for 2029.

[Sjoski]

The best decisions are usually difficult and unpopular.  

Apply some "probability" logic to the situation, and you move him at the deadline. 

Final factor is I believe he wants out anyways.

[LyleCole]

It is the same logic as trading Ryan Jeffers at the deadline, and probably related.

If the Twins do not want to sign Ryan Jeffers to a market rate free agent contract, then trade him at the deadline.  If they do, then keep him.

And if they do not want to sign Ryan Jeffers, then why would they want to sign Joe Ryan to the same.

The decision is completely in the hands of Twins ownership.   To me it makes zero sense to do it half way, although I will add the caveat that we just drafted a catcher with the 3rd overall pick.   But why keep Joe Ryan and have a poor bridge solution at catcher until Lackey comes to the majors, which might be a couple of seasons in the minors and then the transition time as a MLB player.  

  To me you either play the game as an owner of a professional sports franchise putting out the money to make your team a competitor to win the World Series when you have the option.  Or, you are building the team to become that competitive team.  

But if there is a Twins way, it is putting a mediocre at best product on the field.

 

[rdehring]

The elephant in the room is the pending CBA negotiations.  You talked about the likelihood of a delay to next season or even not having it.  You talked about the question of whether or not the Qualifying Offer will exist. 

There is another aspect that no one is talking about.  What if there is a real cap and floor.  The original number extended by the owner's was $172M, wasn't it?  Although no one has a clue how this is going to end, Management knows a heck of a lot more than we do.  Should by chance there be a floor anywhere near $172M, the Twins and a lot of other teams are going to have to spend a boatload of money.  Perhaps the best way of doing it would be resigning a few of their own players, beginning with Ryan.  That's assuming Ryan has any interest in staying a Twin, which only Ryan, his agent and maybe management have any idea.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, MMMordabito said:

An extension isn't an option?

It’s a big option IF he gets hurt & is also a big option if the Labor Negotiations generate a “spending floor” for teams across baseball . Joe could be a good use of $$ needed to be spent. The other argument for the extension path is the fact that Lopez is off the books after ‘27 & there would be $22M of budget freed up……….could extend Joe & trade Pablo next year at the deadline……assuming he is generally solid coming back from a year off. Lots of options.

[JD-TWINS]

34 minutes ago, mickster said:

With the parity in the AL a complete rebuild is not necessary.   Win back the fans by extending both Ryan's.   Rotation is then Pablo, Joe, Taj, Abel, Bailey w/depth behind them.  Parades and Festa as BP pieces.   Then you have plenty of depth to trade some prospects for to fill in hole.   Fans will come back and farm system is set to supplement either via call ups or trades for a few years.   

Prielipp & Matthews are certainly in the mix for the #4-#5 slots as well.

[JD-TWINS]

34 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

The needing a new CBA in order to even have a 2027 season coupled with the fact that both sides completely mistrust the other really complicates this decision.

Labor negotiating with Owners is a pretty common thing in business …….. both sides ultimately want to make money…….. with the current level of interest in the game, both sides would be nuts to have a work stoppage at all, due to failed negotiations……..worst case a shutdown of 30-45 days. Baseball is going to be played in ‘27 - too much money at stake for everyone involved to not play games! My opinion.

[mike8791]

There is an unstated unknown here:  Is Zoll capable of identifying trade returns who would catapult the Twins into "real contenders"?  He is totally unproven, but his failure as GM to trade some obvious excess, e.g., LH OFs, DH ers, and quasi-prospects who have simply not lived up to their potential, for the badly needed decent pen arms that could have made a major difference in pre-AllStar play must raise a giant flag of concern about his abilities.

If he holds on to Jeffers at the deadline, this must be considered a black mark.  And if he does trade Jeffers and fails to land players who can actually improve the 2026 squad, again, it would raise serious questions about his chops.   I won't even address the Ryan trade possibilities for now as that ball is still up in the air at present.  But, as others on the board have said, if Ryan is traded it must yield at least two major-league-regulars who can step into the closer role and cleanup hitter, if not both this year, then by 2027.

[Linus]

I think timing is a big factor here. I view the Twins as a team in transition- one that can be very good in two years and several years after. If they were truly a “win now” club I would advocate to keep Joe even if it meant losing him for not much. However the Twins are not a “win now” club in my view. Any time past this deadline is just wasted value. It sucks but trading him is the right thing to do. And if he gets hurt we are really screwed. 

[DataNerd]

For all of the pessimism about any chance of there being a Ryan extension, we currently only have $22M guaranteed money for 2028, and if the new CBA has a cap floor there is a good chance we have to have a higher payroll then we currently do.  The only guys who will be hitting FA by 28 will be Jeffers/Caratini (which likely aren't targets for a big deal due to Lackey) Lopez (could definately see him getting a deal, but unless he pitches really well next year will be for less money than currently) and Bell/Ober/Larnach (who we may not even want).  If we are forced to have a $150M payroll, we could extend Ryan and still would be required to spend more.

[Dman]

The 2027 uncertainty really throws a wrinkle into this.  If there is no comp pick then keeping him to the end carries more risk IMO. Still having Ryan for two potential playoff runs is valuable as well. 

When you think about Twins teams of the past and how we felt we just needed an Ace type arm to compete in the playoffs it just seems hard to trade Ryan.  We all know what it takes to pry that type of arm away from another team.  It's a good chunk of your farm to do it.  It's a risk to keep him for sure especially since 2027 is gonna be all messed up, but you hate to lose your best arm.

If they did keep him this team looks like it could be special in 2027.  You would have Ryan, Lopez, Bradley, Prielipp and Ober or Matthews, Abel and Rojas as depth or battling for the last spot.  I don't know how well Quick will do at AA, but if does OK there he could also be an option in 2027 and if Gallagher improves he might be a long shot option as well. So quite a bit of starter depth.

For bats Culpepper already looks close.  Roden is up.  Rodriguez is out of options so has to play.  Jenkins feels likely to be called up in 2027 for sure. We'll see where Houston ends up at the end of the year but he could be an option in 2027 as well.

Keeping Ryan to the end gives this team a real shot in 2027.

Or you could trade him at the deadline and get a haul.  Role with the arms mentioned above without Ryan and hopefully add at least two new top 100 prospects (hopefully arms) to a pretty deep system and hope Abel, Matthews, Rojas or Quick are up to the task of being top of the rotation arms.

It all hinges on what MLB can get done negotiating a new agreement for 2027 and beyond.  If things just stay the same I'd trade Ryan.  The Twins won't have the revenue stream to afford to pass on the haul they could get trading him. If there is a change though that allows the Twins to spend more money keeping him wouldn't be bad as they they would have money to spend to shore things up once he leaves.

It's tough to say what's best as there's plenty of risk both ways.  First things first let's see where this team sits at the end of July.

[Chad93]

You see what you can get and if it's a haul you trade him. Looking at the roster we aren't close to a championship club. If you we're Joe Ryan and your contract is coming up would you want to sign with the Minnesota Twins or another organization that has a legit Championship shot every year with less pressure of not having to be the #1 Starter 

[thelanges5]

#extendjoeryan

[farmerguychris]

I'd prefer to keep him for the rest of this season, and then if they decide to go a different direction, trade him this winter.  One thought however that gives me pause on this plan is that I don't know when a lockout would begin.  If its in December, we wouldn't even really have a chance to trade him until labor negotiations are resolved, so that may be a hard time to get fair value for him if everyone is trying to conduct a full off-season in 2 weeks.

[Possumlad]

43 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I dare you to find a fan who won’t attend games because Byron Buxton doesn’t have a contract for 2029.

I didn't suggest any fans won't attend games because Buxton doesn't have a contract for 2029. I suggested that signing both Joe & Buck to extensions would create enthusiasm & send a strong signal that many fans would appreciate - and I do think that signal would help with perception & attendance.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

The ideal scenario is signing him to an extension.  He seems like the type of player that just continues to get better each year.  He takes good care of his body and he had an inner drive.   He needs to maintain performance throughout the year.  

He will not be traded at this years deadline unless things tragically fall apart.   I think teams are nervous for next year so won't give full value and Tom really wants to win to keep his word.  So you wait til 2027, you see if can sign to an extension.  The Twins will have money available, and there is a possibility the big market teams won't have the resources to splurge.   Could be a nice coming together of the market.   There will likely be no comp pick options.  Worst case trade him at the deadline in 2027.    

From what I read on Fangraphs and other sites, teams aren't thinking about next year....they want guys at the deadline that will help them this year. 

I think they hold him, and then they should deal him after this year. They won't. and they'll lose him for nothing. 

[jorgenswest]

Seek a Berrios level (two top 100) return at this deadline. If they don’t get that offer hold him. The key to the Berrios deal was reinvesting that salary slot in Gray the next two years. The Twins need to do that if they trade Ryan.