When It Comes to Joe Ryan, Twins Have Four MLB Trade Deadline Options

[Mike Sixel]

People want to extend a pitcher to his age 36 season? Y'all going to not complain when it's a terrible contract the last two years?

[HerbieFan]

For me, it's #3. 

+ This year has been a surprise but a lot of the players in the lineup are highish draft picks....it IS possible that some of these guys are hitting their prime and this is the beginning of a contending team.

+ Ryan clearly allows you to be better in 2026.

+ In 2027, the rotation can start with Ryan, Bradley, Ober, Abel.  That's a pretty good start and includes a pair of really talented younger guys.  It allows the FO the chance to be good in 2027.

+ If you hit the 2027 deadline and things haven't gotten to the point you hoped, then deal him.  No, the package won't be as good as if you trade him this season.

+ Keeping him as long as possible sends a much better message to the fans but also to your entire roster.  Something Derek Falvey clearly didn't consider when he traded away 10 players and any hope at last year's deadline.

[Patzky]

27 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Prielipp & Matthews are certainly in the mix for the #4-#5 slots as well.

We sometimes forget the excellent starting pitching depth we have, because it was sorely needed.

[Linus]

There has been lots of speculation about a cap / floor as part of the new CBA. I don’t think that is likely as you only get a floor if the owners get a cap. The players union has fought a cap tooth and nail in prior negotiations so I don’t think it is likely. If it does happen it probably means the 2027 season is screwed. 

[Vanimal46]

A little nugget that Dan Hayes said in the clip is Joe Ryan was seeking a 7 year around $30 million per year extension last season. Some team in a much better financial position than the Twins will add the additional year or higher AAV. Sucks, but that's the reality we're in. 

[TheLeviathan]

We'll regret anything other than 1.  Unless there is some real chance to sign him to an extension behind the scenes none of us are privvy to.

[Mike Sixel]

28 minutes ago, HerbieFan said:

For me, it's #3. 

+ This year has been a surprise but a lot of the players in the lineup are highish draft picks....it IS possible that some of these guys are hitting their prime and this is the beginning of a contending team.

+ Ryan clearly allows you to be better in 2026.

+ In 2027, the rotation can start with Ryan, Bradley, Ober, Abel.  That's a pretty good start and includes a pair of really talented younger guys.  It allows the FO the chance to be good in 2027.

+ If you hit the 2027 deadline and things haven't gotten to the point you hoped, then deal him.  No, the package won't be as good as if you trade him this season.

+ Keeping him as long as possible sends a much better message to the fans but also to your entire roster.  Something Derek Falvey clearly didn't consider when he traded away 10 players and any hope at last year's deadline.

Bradley and Abel were acquired in those deals......that's why the future looks brighter. Had he considered that, who would be your rotation next year?

[DJL44]

14 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Joe Ryan was seeking a 7 year around $30 million per year extension last season. Some team in a much better financial position than the Twins will add the additional year or higher AAV. Sucks, but that's the reality we're in. 

No thanks. Too much.

[chpettit19]

57 minutes ago, rdehring said:

The elephant in the room is the pending CBA negotiations.  You talked about the likelihood of a delay to next season or even not having it.  You talked about the question of whether or not the Qualifying Offer will exist. 

There is another aspect that no one is talking about.  What if there is a real cap and floor.  The original number extended by the owner's was $172M, wasn't it?  Although no one has a clue how this is going to end, Management knows a heck of a lot more than we do.  Should by chance there be a floor anywhere near $172M, the Twins and a lot of other teams are going to have to spend a boatload of money.  Perhaps the best way of doing it would be resigning a few of their own players, beginning with Ryan.  That's assuming Ryan has any interest in staying a Twin, which only Ryan, his agent and maybe management have any idea.

I think taking this stuff into consideration when making decisions today is a really risky proposition. There will be so many other rules around contracts, payrolls, etc. that it doesn't seem like trying to guess at what the final outcome is would be all that helpful. If teams like the Twins are going to have to spend a bunch extra, teams like the Yankees and Dodgers are going to have to cut a lot. Guessing what the FA pool or trade opportunities are would just be throwing darts in the dark. 

The CBA can very much have a huge impact on the future of the Twins, but trying to make decisions now based on guesses of what it may look like feels really dangerous.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

It’s a big option IF he gets hurt & is also a big option if the Labor Negotiations generate a “spending floor” for teams across baseball . Joe could be a good use of $$ needed to be spent. The other argument for the extension path is the fact that Lopez is off the books after ‘27 & there would be $22M of budget freed up……….could extend Joe & trade Pablo next year at the deadline……assuming he is generally solid coming back from a year off. Lots of options.

You're leaving out the biggest IF...IF Joe Ryan wants to sign a deal before he hits free agency. Which doesn't really match with anything he's ever said about his contracts. They could certainly pursue him on the market after 2027, but the biggest factor in extending any player is that player and their willingness to do it.

[mickster]

49 minutes ago, Chad93 said:

You see what you can get and if it's a haul you trade him. Looking at the roster we aren't close to a championship club. If you we're Joe Ryan and your contract is coming up would you want to sign with the Minnesota Twins or another organization that has a legit Championship shot every year with less pressure of not having to be the #1 Starter 

I agree with your last point, however the 1987 Twins roster was not a championship roster either - but they are the WS champions.    I think Joe can be a building block to help elevate the next few years to a championship caliber roster.

[Whitey333]

A serious team woukd realize they are playing better in a league full of underperforming teams.  IMO they need to follow the philosophy of the Brewers and Rays.  Trade your better players when their value is high for even better prospects.  Playing the middle ground between 

[mickster]

35 minutes ago, Patzky said:

We sometimes forget the excellent starting pitching depth we have, because it was sorely needed.

That is correct - and the depth should help to maintain the roster through moves and continued development of arms

[mickster]

6 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

You're leaving out the biggest IF...IF Joe Ryan wants to sign a deal before he hits free agency. Which doesn't really match with anything he's ever said about his contracts. They could certainly pursue him on the market after 2027, but the biggest factor in extending any player is that player and their willingness to do it.

That is something we don't know and IF he wants out, like Berrios did, then you need to do it after the season.  

[RpR]

4 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

A serious team woukd realize they are playing better in a league full of underperforming teams.  IMO they need to follow the philosophy of the Brewers and Rays.  Trade your better players when their value is high for even better prospects.  Playing the middle ground between 

Do you mean dump producing vets for continued supply of rookies which would make the Twins an eternal AAAA team.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, mike8791 said:

There is an unstated unknown here:  Is Zoll capable of identifying trade returns who would catapult the Twins into "real contenders"?  He is totally unproven, but his failure as GM to trade some obvious excess, e.g., LH OFs, DH ers, and quasi-prospects who have simply not lived up to their potential, for the badly needed decent pen arms that could have made a major difference in pre-AllStar play must raise a giant flag of concern about his abilities.

If he holds on to Jeffers at the deadline, this must be considered a black mark.  And if he does trade Jeffers and fails to land players who can actually improve the 2026 squad, again, it would raise serious questions about his chops.   I won't even address the Ryan trade possibilities for now as that ball is still up in the air at present.  But, as others on the board have said, if Ryan is traded it must yield at least two major-league-regulars who can step into the closer role and cleanup hitter, if not both this year, then by 2027.

Can you name a single trade of a pitcher that returned a major league closer and cleanup hitter? Like a single trade in the history of baseball? That is a wildly outrageous ask. What buying team is selling their closer and cleanup hitter for a pitcher?

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, DataNerd said:

For all of the pessimism about any chance of there being a Ryan extension, we currently only have $22M guaranteed money for 2028, and if the new CBA has a cap floor there is a good chance we have to have a higher payroll then we currently do.  The only guys who will be hitting FA by 28 will be Jeffers/Caratini (which likely aren't targets for a big deal due to Lackey) Lopez (could definately see him getting a deal, but unless he pitches really well next year will be for less money than currently) and Bell/Ober/Larnach (who we may not even want).  If we are forced to have a $150M payroll, we could extend Ryan and still would be required to spend more.

Joe Ryan has to want to do it. I feel like people leave the player and their free will out of the equation. If Joe Ryan doesn't want to sign an extension, the requirement for the Twins to spend money has nothing to do with Joe Ryan and his wishes. Unless you're advocating for the Twins to spend significantly above market rate to convince him to stay. Which is a bad strategy for roster management no matter how much they're required to spend.

[chpettit19]

39 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

A little nugget that Dan Hayes said in the clip is Joe Ryan was seeking a 7 year around $30 million per year extension last season. Some team in a much better financial position than the Twins will add the additional year or higher AAV. Sucks, but that's the reality we're in. 

I want no part of paying a pitcher 30 mil until they're 36/37 years old. 

[chpettit19]

28 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Bradley and Abel were acquired in those deals......that's why the future looks brighter. Had he considered that, who would be your rotation next year?

Oh, and the team was 51-57 and on the way down.

[LA Vikes Fan]

There is a lot that has been written about the idea that there are two types of people, some who prioritize the risk of loss, and some who prioritize the possibility of gain. You can see those two types of people in these comments. Some people emphasize the possibility of injury, the chance that the 2027 season may be wiped out or shortened by a lockout/strike, and a hope that the return will be higher at the 2026 deadline than in the off-season. Some commenters emphasize the possibility of a playoff berth and/or playoff push this year, the chance he might sign an extension in the off-season, or having him here to show that "new" ownership is serious about change and improve attendance. None of these attitudes is wrong, they are just different. There is no answer that is "smarter" than the other, or more "serious" than the other, they just reflect competing priorities, competing assumptions about the future, and most importantly, the priority dichotomy between the risk of loss and the possibility of reward.

Cody is right, there is no right or wrong answer here. I'm a pragmatist by nature and an optimist by attitude. My pragmatic half says that the likely return for Ryan in the off-season will not be materially different than the likely return at the deadline and that this year may present an unusual opportunity to get into the playoffs or even win the division with 83 to 86 wins. My optimistic side says that Ryan is unlikely to get injured in a way that would impact his off-season trade value, that he might be worth more in the offseason since we can get MLB talent then rather than just prospects (which I much prefer), that the Twins recent play will continue after the break, and that they can get to that 83 to 86 win threshold that will get them into the playoffs either as a division winner or a Wild Card. All of this leads me to choose option numbers 2 or 3. I would keep Ryan this year for sure and try to sign him in the off-season by making a market value or close to market value offer. If you can't re-sign him I would trade him in the off-season if we can get a huge return or wait until the 2027 deadline to decide whether to trade him. If you're not contending at the 2027 deadline, trade away. If you are, it might be worth the excitement keep him around and take the risk that you lose him for draft compensation. I am willing to accept the risk of injury or a lesser return to get the possibility of playoff contention this year and next and a new attitude for the team. 

So for me, NOT trading Ryan at the 2026 deadline is a no-brainer because to me the potential upside is substantially higher than the potential risk of loss. This is a much tougher decision in the 2027 off-season, and it's kind of a no-brainer that you have to trade him no later than the 2027 deadline unless the team is truly contending for a championship in 2027. So that's what I would do. I would even go so far as to have management stand up and say "We are not trading Joe Ryan at 2026 trade deadline. We hope that he remains Twin for the rest of his career and are committed to having meaningful negotiations this off-season with a market value contract offer." That's what I would do and by the way, I think that is the right thing to do for the team in the short term and in the long term because of the attitude it signals for a team badly in need of a re-set. 

[chpettit19]

17 minutes ago, mickster said:

That is something we don't know and IF he wants out, like Berrios did, then you need to do it after the season.  

Yeah, I just don't agree with that. They already talked about his future when they negotiated his deal that included a 2027 option. They know if he's willing to sign something close to what they're willing to offer. If you know he's not signing, then you cash him in for his highest value, and that's before August 4th, 2026.

Many people expected this team to be well below .500 and the league to be performing normally to this point. The fact that the Twins are only barely below .500 and the league as a whole has underperformed has people thinking this team is better than it is, in my opinion. They're below .500 but we're acting like they're a winning team challenging the best in the AL. They aren't. And trading Joe now doesn't mean they completely tank and only win 10 games after the deadline. The Tigers traded all their veterans in 2024 when they were 52-57 at the deadline and made the playoffs by letting their young guys come up and go to work. Trading Joe Ryan and the 10 or so starts he'd make after the deadline isn't some automatic death blow to this team. But the team isn't all that alive anyways.

Give me the best chance at truly opening a window over crossing our fingers that this team that's been below .500 since April 22 is some sort of real contender. I get not wanting to trade him now, and don't think that's crazy, but I fully disagree with it until this team actually shows they're actual contenders. They have 16 games to do that, I guess.