When It Comes to Joe Ryan, Twins Have Four MLB Trade Deadline Options

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

18 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

The numbers provided in this thread by way of Dan Hayes reporting is 7 years, $210 million. Are you willing to pay 34-, 35-, 36-, and 37-year-old Joe Ryan $30 million a year? More power to ya if you are, but I think that's a contract that the vast majority of Twins fans are bemoaning when it's killing their payroll in 4 years.

Absolutely. Especially if theyre able to get a little creative with it. He is 100% a 30M+ pitcher right now. He doesnt rely on being upper 90s to be effective. He's a solid pitcher and not just a high speed thrower. I believe he'll adapt and still perform well as he ages. 

It would be nice to see the contract a little front loaded to account for possible decline, but I feel he has earned a contract in that range. 

[IndianaTwin]

14 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I am amazed at obtuse thinking. 

Ryan has never said he wanted to be traded. He only stated last season that it was "interesting" to hear his name in a BS report about being traded.

He's throwing as well as he ever has.

The trade BS should just go away. He's a Twin for 2027 PERIOD.

The FO is going to have to make a decision between extending Lopez or Ryan.  But that's a few months away.

I think the "Joe Ryan wants to leave" stuff comes from the same place as the "Sonny Gray wants to leave" stuff did. 

They are competitive athletes. They sometimes have a bad day. When they do, they are angry at themselves, and their body language sometimes shows it. They are confident in their abilities, so they are (appropriately) disappointed that they got taken out of the game, because they want to see themselves through it. They are interviewed after a game and in the heat of the moment make a comment like, "I wanted to go after the next guy," which gets taken out of context and magnified on the internet. And then, if something happens a second time, it gets mushroomed even more.

Meanwhile, in more settled times, we see Gray make comments about how much he liked being in Minnesota. And recently an article in The Athletic talked about how much Ryan has bought into the team and what it's doing. But because those comments don't happen in the heat of the moment (or on television during a game), people don't pay attention. 

I'm not sure I'd go as far as you in saying he's a Twin in 2027 PERIOD (though I hope he is, and think it very likely), but when you consider that all the noise about 2026 has come from the outside (looking at you, Bowden and others), I definitely think he's here past August 4.

[IndianaTwin]

21 hours ago, amjgt said:

Maybe he's been brought up in this thread and it was just a post I skimmed over, but an extension for Pablo seems way more likely that Joe. 

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to have them both beyond 2027, anchoring the rotation, with some combination of Taj, Abel, Prielipp, and Zebby filling it out. You pair that with a lineup that is good now (with a little smoke and mirrors) but looks to be building towards a young, fun 2027/28 and you've got a team that you don't have to squint to see having good sustainable success.

But I just don't see both Pablo and Joe both being around past 2027. And based on the AAV and years that it might take, I view Pablo as a more likely, lower cost, lower risk extension candidate. 

I'd love to see them extend Ryan, but I think you are right. Lopez goes into next season with a lot of weight on his needing to have a full injury-free season in order to get a multi-year deal. A one-year extension to guarantee 2028 and give him more time to re-establish himself makes gobs of sense on both sides. 

 

[IndianaTwin]

21 hours ago, Stew said:

An extension could be an option. But will his agent ask for a lot more? Will they have to give a qualifying offer . There is a lot to look over.you have other contracts to deal with. Lopez has one more year . It would make since to hold on Ryan and negotiate an extension. Then see if lopez is pitching well. If he is good he could be on the trading block. He is paid eight million more than ryan next year. And the twins have stated they may not trade jeffers. I don't see us keeping all three.

Ryan's $13M for next year is a mutual option. I think it's been years since a mutual option was taken by both sides. With the year he is having, Ryan will easily decline his end. With the amount Skubal got as an S3 player, Ryan will be paid significantly above $13M. 

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, soyouresayingtheresachance said:

Absolutely. Especially if theyre able to get a little creative with it. He is 100% a 30M+ pitcher right now. He doesnt rely on being upper 90s to be effective. He's a solid pitcher and not just a high speed thrower. I believe he'll adapt and still perform well as he ages. 

It would be nice to see the contract a little front loaded to account for possible decline, but I feel he has earned a contract in that range. 

I have no doubt he can get that money; my concern is the Twins being the ones to pay it. He relies on his fastball spin making his fastball do abnormal things. The second that is gone Joe Ryan will start to really struggle. I don't want the Twins paying 30 million to him for years after that point.

I have no problem with people wanting to extend Joe. I just think it turns into many of the same people complaining that his contract is ruining their ability to build out the rest of the roster. We haven't even gotten into pitcher injuries and the likelihood of that happening. It's a giant risk to pay any pitcher into their mid- to late-thirties. Giant.

[amjgt]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I have no doubt he can get that money; my concern is the Twins being the ones to pay it. He relies on his fastball spin making his fastball do abnormal things. The second that is gone Joe Ryan will start to really struggle. I don't want the Twins paying 30 million to him for years after that point.

I have no problem with people wanting to extend Joe. I just think it turns into many of the same people complaining that his contract is ruining their ability to build out the rest of the roster. We haven't even gotten into pitcher injuries and the likelihood of that happening. It's a giant risk to pay any pitcher into their mid- to late-thirties. Giant.

I've never really thought of "spin" as something that declines with age. Maybe it does. No idea. I'd love to see some data on that.

[chpettit19]

38 minutes ago, amjgt said:

I've never really thought of "spin" as something that declines with age. Maybe it does. No idea. I'd love to see some data on that.

I guess I shouldn't claim to know that for 100%, but spin is a large part of what makes a pitcher's "stuff" so good, right? On a basic level, its spin and velocity. And their stuff always declines with age. My assumption would be that the decline isn't 100% velocity driven.

[amjgt]

25 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I guess I shouldn't claim to know that for 100%, but spin is a large part of what makes a pitcher's "stuff" so good, right? On a basic level, its spin and velocity. And their stuff always declines with age. My assumption would be that the decline isn't 100% velocity driven.

My (perhaps flawed) assumption has been that velocity declines with age because it’s largely strength-based, although I think more recently perhaps we’ve seen that mechanics play a bigger role than previously though. 

But when it comes to spin, I’ve always thought of that as more technique driven, or at the very least driven by much less powerful muscles/tendons, so not nearly as affected by age deterioration. 

That could be 100% be a flawed way to think about it though. 

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

8 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I have no doubt he can get that money; my concern is the Twins being the ones to pay it. He relies on his fastball spin making his fastball do abnormal things. The second that is gone Joe Ryan will start to really struggle. I don't want the Twins paying 30 million to him for years after that point.

I have no problem with people wanting to extend Joe. I just think it turns into many of the same people complaining that his contract is ruining their ability to build out the rest of the roster. We haven't even gotten into pitcher injuries and the likelihood of that happening. It's a giant risk to pay any pitcher into their mid- to late-thirties. Giant.

Of course its a risk. Signing any player is a risk. Which is why my preference would be to front load that contract to try and offset that decline. IF, big if, Pohlad is serious about being a perennial contender, its the kind of signings that will need to happen. If we dont keep Joe, we will still need to sign an Ace or #2 starter. Someone is going to have to get paid by the Twins to be a playoff pitcher. 

[ashbury]

On 7/15/2026 at 1:52 PM, Mike Sixel said:

Ryan was traded for. Abel. Bradley. 

Yabbut what has the FO done for us lately?