Taj Bradley's Numbers Are Rapidly Declining, and There's One Key Reason Why

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

For the first month of the season, Taj Bradley looked like a legitimate ace. The Twins' right-hander was outperforming Joe Ryan, posting dominant stat lines in every start, and looking every bit like the frontline starter Minnesota believed he could be when they traded for him last summer.

Through his first five starts, Bradley carried a sparkling 1.63 ERA. Three of those outings were quality starts, he was generating whiffs at an elite rate, and opposing hitters looked completely overmatched. At the time, it felt like the Twins may have fleeced the Rays.

And that still might end up being true. But over his last six starts, Bradley has looked like an entirely different pitcher. Across 33 innings during that stretch, he's allowed 19 earned runs on 30 hits and 16 walks. His ERA has climbed from 1.63 to 3.56, and nearly every meaningful trend has moved in the wrong direction.

The biggest reason for that decline isn't bad luck. It's command.

Only 46.7% of all pitches Bradley has thrown this year have landed in the strike zone. On its own, that number isn't necessarily alarming. Plenty of successful pitchers live outside the strike zone and rely on hitters chasing pitches they can't drive.

The problem is that Bradley doesn't generate enough chase to make that approach work. Too many of his misses aren't competitive and end up nowhere near the strike zone. 

Just in his most recent start on Wednesday, multiple splitters were nearly missed by catcher Victor Caratini because they were so high. That's not an isolated occurrence either. Similar misses have shown up throughout the season.

There have also been several splitters and cutters that have bounced well in front of the plate, as well as too many fastballs that finish at a hitter’s eyes.  Over that six-start stretch, his BBs/9 is up at 4.4, which is a full walk higher than his career average. In addition, the three starts he's made since returning from the IL in late May have been especially worrisome. Over a combined 13 2/3 innings, he's issued nine free passes. 

At times, it almost looks like Bradley doesn't know where the ball is going out of his hand, and that's not something that's popped up recently. That's been an issue plaguing him throughout the season, and his results are suffering as a result. 

When a pitcher consistently misses by that much, he inevitably falls behind in counts. And once that starts happening, everything becomes more difficult. Hitters become more selective, pitchers are forced to throw strikes in predictable situations, and mistakes become far more costly. That's exactly what has happened to Bradley over the last month and a half.

While the raw hit totals aren't especially concerning, the quality of contact he's allowing has become a major problem. His home run rate over the last six starts has jumped to 1.6 HR/9 after not allowing a single homer through his first five appearances of the season. 

It’s hard to believe that’s just a coincidence. When pitchers constantly find themselves in 2-0 and 3-0 counts, they eventually have to come back over the plate. Major league hitters know it, and they're more than capable of punishing mistakes when they're sitting on a fastball in a hitter's count.

The underlying metrics support that idea. Bradley ranks in the 16th percentile among major-league pitchers in hard-hit rate, and the 6th percentile for average exit velocity allowed. His barrel rate and ground ball rate aren't much better.

Once again, it all traces back to command. And it’s unfortunate, because the stuff itself remains outstanding. Bradley throws hard, and his pitches still move very well. When he's locating them properly, hitters rarely do much damage against him. That's what makes this stretch so frustrating.

The raw talent is obvious. The ingredients that made him look like an ace in April haven't disappeared. But the command has.

There may also be a pitch-mix component worth discussing. Roughly 89% of Bradley's arsenal sits between 91 and 97 miles per hour, with his four-seam fastball, splitter, and cutter. That by itself isn’t necessarily a bad thing, and all three pitches move differently. But it’s a very small margin for error when they’re not landing over the plate. 

He'll mix in a curveball occasionally, but it's not a major part of his game plan. That leaves hitters seeing a lot of pitches with similar velocity profiles throughout an at-bat.

Adding a slider or sweeper could potentially help. Not only would it create a larger speed gap, but it would also give him another glove-side offering that moves differently than the rest of his arsenal, especially since his curveball is very up-and-down with little horizontal movement.

Would that solve all of the problems? Probably not, and that would more likely than not be an offseason adjustment regardless. But even if the Twins introduced another pitch tomorrow, Bradley would still need to locate it. The command issue remains the biggest obstacle standing between him and becoming the pitcher he looked like during the season's first month.

The solution isn't necessarily complicated, even if executing it is. Bradley has to throw more strikes. There have simply been too many hitter-friendly counts, too many free passes, and too many wasted pitches that force him into disadvantageous situations.

If that means sacrificing a mile per hour of velocity, it may be worth considering. His splitter and cutter are already good enough to generate whiffs when they're located properly.

The focus should be on getting ahead in counts, working at the bottom of the strike zone with those secondaries, and forcing hitters to react to him instead of the other way around. If he can do that, the results should follow.

Bradley hasn’t lost his ability to pitch. Even with his struggles recently, there have still been outings where he looks dominant. His first two starts in May were exactly that, combining for just three earned runs over 11 innings with 15 strikeouts to four walks. We know how talented he is.

But none of that matters if you can’t find the strike zone. Regardless of how good the stuff is or how hard he throws; there’s a reason the position is called a “pitcher” and not a “thrower.”

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[thelanges5]

Maybe we didn’t fleece the Rays after all?!?

[Bangkok Twins Fan]

Good analysis. I'm sure we are all hoping that Bradley can overcome these control issues. Like you wrote, his "stuff" is still strong. Now he needs to make sure the pitches are going where they are intended. 

[Whitey333]

It's the same old thing with Twins pitching.  Too many ups and downs with far more downs.  I think Bradley will just turn out to be an average pitcher.  More hype than substance.  Not much changes with these Twins.

[Patzky]

34 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

It's the same old thing with Twins pitching.  Too many ups and downs with far more downs.  I think Bradley will just turn out to be an average pitcher.  More hype than substance.  Not much changes with these Twins.

And we're talking about dumping Joe Ryan for more pitchers with good stuff command issues.. might be that Jeffers is being missed too but we had better get used to that as well 

[HeresWaldo]

Even with the Rays giving him a single target to aim for and he couldn't consistently hit the zone in Tampa Bay, not surprising he's still missing here in MN. His Stuff and Command numbers via the Stuff+, Command+ and Pitching+ models are almost identical to what they've been his entire career, with the biggest difference being the league making slight stuff improvements around him. The idea that having him read scouting reports would be the reason he broke out was always a bit silly. His main problem wasn't sequencing he could adjust with more information, it was command and it always has been. The good news is the stuff plays, so either he can continue to be a streaky starter who will eventually get onto another hot streak, or if the Twins ever get their rotation figured out he could probably be a great reliever.

[Vanimal46]

We are seeing why Tampa was willing to let him go at the trade deadline last year. The Rays are on to bigger and better things like making a deep playoff run. The Twins have all the time and opportunity to give to an inconsistent 25 year old pitcher. 

[Taildragger8791]

How many guys like him with high-end stuff but career-long control issues ever reign it in enough to have multiple years of consistent success? It seems like the Twins keep pursuing this mold, thinking they can exploit a market inefficiency and just need to fix one small problem (the ability to throw strikes!) despite showing no ability to fix control problems.

[bean5302]

Taj's stuff generates some pretty high whiff rates on stuff inside and outside the zone so I wouldn't say he doesn't generate enough chase. There's just a limit to how far outside the zone you can be where any MLB caliber hitter is going to swing at all.

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Too many of his misses aren't competitive and end up nowhere near the strike zone. 

It's really that. He's too wild. 

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Adding a slider or sweeper could help Bradley.

Can't see adding pitches to a guy's arsenal as a good idea when he's already struggling to gain command over his current stuff.

[mikelink45]

Since Abel is still on the IL we can still dream that we got one great pitcher from our sell off.

[hitterscount]

It’s like I said in last night’s thread, he’s a chucker not a pitcher. His stuff is good enough to be a serviceable starter, however he has zero command of his pitches, the ability to work the strike zone. Lately he has limited control, the ability to even throw strikes. Command and control aren’t the same…. control being able to throw strikes with command having the ability to locate pitches where you want. If Bradley could just throw strikes he gas good enough velocity and movement to be effective.. … he just can’t do it consistently and why Tampa let him go.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

It's the same old thing with Twins pitching.  Too many ups and downs with far more downs.  I think Bradley will just turn out to be an average pitcher.  More hype than substance.  Not much changes with these Twins.

🌻😁!

[JD-TWINS]

Watched the game last night & if the answer to your headline question was anything other than COMMAND, it would have been wrong.

He can do it - he did it for a handful of starts at the beginning of the season. He needs Rhythm & Focus!

These Ups & Downs are obviously the same stuff Tampa Bay experienced and they got sick of his abilities not being harnessed. Gotta apply “the stuff” ….. straightforward, same for all pitchers.

His Four-Seam on Tuesday night was almost embarrassing to watch …… bounced fastball in front of the plate and nearly air-mailed 3 or 4 others waaay high! Nothing looked sharp.

[rdehring]

8 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Watched the game last night & if the answer to your headline question was anything other than COMMAND, it would have been wrong.

He can do it - he did it for a handful of starts at the beginning of the season. He needs Rhythm & Focus!

These Ups & Downs are obviously the same stuff Tampa Bay experienced and they got sick of his abilities not being harnessed. Gotta apply “the stuff” ….. straightforward, same for all pitchers.

His Four-Seam on Tuesday night was almost embarrassing to watch …… bounced fastball in front of the plate and nearly air-mailed 3 or 4 others waaay high! Nothing looked sharp.

Don't disagree with anything you and others are saying.  It seemed Detroit's pitcher last night was also having problems, although not as obvious as Bradley.  Gotta believe the wet field and humidity was making it difficult to grip the ball.  

[nicksaviking]

If it doesn't work out, it shouldn't be the end of the world because you can still be an excellent late inning reliever even without an off speed pitch and less than ideal command.

Obviously the concern is the Twins JUST dumped SWR without trying him in that role first.

[old nurse]

50 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

We are seeing why Tampa was willing to let him go at the trade deadline last year. The Rays are on to bigger and better things like making a deep playoff run. The Twins have all the time and opportunity to give to an inconsistent 25 year old pitcher. 

Saying Tampa will make a deep playoff run is wishful thinking. They haven’t made the playoffs the last few years. 

[JD-TWINS]

Bradley started the Season with 3 very good starts…….. then he got rocked by Tampa Bay. Then he had 3 more very good starts, one of which was his return from the IL…….now a string of 3 straight underwhelming starts.

He’s started 10 games and he’s 5-3 for a Team that’s 30-38. ….. He’s not terrible. He seems to be big time lost with his release point & “command” lately ……. he’s done it, got people out at a high rate. He’s walks guys and in ‘26, due to 3 specific outings, his average walks are at a career high.

Wild & getting guys out at a good rate is OK - walking guys and giving up an inordinate amount of HR’s is not cool.