This Will Not Go On Much Longer

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

To be fair to Matt Wallner, the Twins have seen a crazy number of left-handed pitchers so far this year. Of the 109 plate appearances Wallner has accumulated over the team's first 31 games, a whopping 40 have come against southpaws. In 2024 (admittedly, an injury-disrupted year), Wallner only had 40 confrontations with fellow lefties all season. There's no question that being the lefty batter tasked with absorbing more of those left-on-left matchups than other Twins batters has contributed to Wallner's slow start. He also got hit in the ribcage with a mid-90s fastball two weeks ago, and can be seen most days since in the clubhouse with a huge wrap around his torso, suggesting there's considerable residual soreness there. All of that matters. It's not a set of excuses; it's a set of legitimate explanations for some of what's happening.

The problem, of course, is that what's happening is untenable, no matter what's causing it. It's also getting hard to convince yourself that it will ever change. Wallner will turn 29 years old this winter. Though they haven't come without major interruptions, he has over 1,000 plate appearances in the majors. Right now, he doesn't look like a big league-caliber player—in either half of any given inning. Wallner is batting .168/.275/.284 this season, and striking out 38% of the time. He's lost speed this year and was never good at getting going, anyway, so he's become the worst defensive outfielder in the big leagues, with no serious rival. 

Last year, I wrote about Wallner's bat path flattening out, and the negative effects thereof. This season, it's flattened out even more. He's also lost some bat speed, though surely, part of that is due to both seeing more lefties (harder to swing with full conviction when you pick the ball up later) and the lingering issues from that plunking. He's just not a functional hitter right now, either.

Defenders of Wallner are fond of observing that hitters with high strikeout rates can look disproportionately bad during cold spells, and that he's gotten equally hot at times in the past. That's true, to some extent, but it's not as helpful if you try to apply it broadly to all strikeout-prone hitters as if you analyze each player as an individual. Nor does it remain equally true over time. Wallner's swing is losing its ability to generate consistently lethal contact, even when he gets on time. His approach and pitch recognition have never been all that good, which has been proved for all to see since the advent of the ABS system. And again, he's almost 29. Players age faster than ever in the modern game, and Wallner is already moving out of his prime, physically. It's probably true that, given another 100 plate appearances, he would get on a streak and deliver enough power to invite the team to invest another 200 plate appearances in him. Now that the defense has gone terribly sour (and having seen that there's always another low valley after the next peak), though, that feels more like a threat than a promise: more wasted time, rather than a long-awaited breakthrough.

As tantalizing as a homegrown, local product with light-tower power is, the allure is fading, for everyone involved. Even Derek Shelton, who tried to show abundant faith in Wallner by making him an everyday player to begin the season, is moving away from that plan now. Emmanuel Rodriguez is showing the same elite power potential Wallner once had, with Triple-A St. Paul. He's more disciplined than Wallner, and much, much more athletic. The Twins need better defense in the outfield, and they need a lefty slugger with more upside than Wallner offers at this point in his career. Rodriguez offers it.

It's going to be awkward. It's going to be sad. Wallner has a minor-league option remaining, but once you admit that he can't hit in the big leagues after this long at that level and that you can no longer justify playing him, it's tough to think of any demotion as temporary or edifying. It's getting clearer all the time that Wallner (rather than Trevor Larnach or Austin Martin) will be the first player replaced by a top prospect arriving at Target Field, and the time for that replacement is extremely close. In all likelihood, we're seeing the final days of Matt Wallner's Twins career. That's exciting, because he'll give way to a player with every chance to be better than him right away and much more long-term upside. It's also an uneasy situation, though, and a sad ending for a player who was a key cog on one of the teams Twins fans will remember fondly: the 2023 streak-busters. He was great for that team. He's just not helping this one anymore.

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[Patzky]

Mets just put Luis Robert on the shelf.

Takers?

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Matt Wallner is quickly becoming a "change of scenery" guy. He has enough skill and talent to get the job done, he just can't seem to put it all together in Minnesota. I am positive there are teams out there looking at him saying "we can fix that". They should seriously look at moving him now.

[Over The Hill Again]

I’m as big of a Twin Cities/Minnesota homer as you’ll find, but I’ve accepted that Wallner doesn’t really have a future here. If they could flip him for anything, maybe a minor league relief pitcher or something, that would be best for all involved. 

[LambchoP]

If any team is willing to offer us anything at all for Wallner we should take it. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

18 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Matt Wallner is quickly becoming a "change of scenery" guy. He has enough skill and talent to get the job done, he just can't seem to put it all together in Minnesota. I am positive there are teams out there looking at him saying "we can fix that". They should seriously look at moving him now.

I’m sure they are.

you don’t see many trades that aren’t DFA related this time of year.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

As a Matt Wallner apologist

[LA Vikes Fan]

I agree, although I really wonder if there is a market for Wallner. He's a guy that would only to a bottom feeder team looking ahead to better times in a couple of years (think Rooker going to the As) and he's already 28 so his prime is almost gone.  I think the better move is to use the rib issue as a reason to IL him for 10 days and then send him to AAA for a 20 day rehab assignment and see if we can get him going. That gives us a month to see if Emma (or GG) is MLB ready. Maybe even teach him 1B during the rehab assignment.

This is sad and unfortunate but needs to be done. This team is regressing to its mean, about a .450 winning %. It's time to turn over the roster. Wallner goes first so Emma can play. Next move is Outman gone for GG, then Clemens or Gray for Culpepper unless a Lewis injury opens up a spot for him earlier. I'd do the same thing in the bullpen but we don't have a lot in AAA and you can trade relievers at the deadline, even mediocre ones. Hell, I'd like to see Lewis on a rehab assignment in AAA playing 1B every day and a second half of Lewis/GG at 1B, Keaschall at 2B, Culpepper SS, Lee 3B, with Emma, Buxton, and Martin the starting OF, Larnach/GG at DH, Bell traded for young relievers, and a bench of GG (OF/1B), Gray (IF UTL), Caratini (C), and Wallner/Clemens (OF/1B). 

[Brett]

Thanks Matthew. Well written and on the money. We don’t want to give up on him, but this game can be cruel sometimes.

[Vanimal46]

Calling up E-Rod and sending Wallner to St Paul is the easiest move they can make. Any day now…

[DJL44]

I would be shocked if they cut Wallner. They can’t even move on from Outman and he’s been terrible for three consecutive seasons. They won’t let go of Wallner until he hits arbitration. They might use his option, but that just means he will make the MLB opening day roster next season because they will be too averse to losing him for nothing.

[mickster]

27 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

I agree, although I really wonder if there is a market for Wallner. He's a guy that would only to a bottom feeder team looking ahead to better times in a couple of years (think Rooker going to the As) and he's already 28 so his prime is almost gone.  I think the better move is to use the rib issue as a reason to IL him for 10 days and then send him to AAA for a 20 day rehab assignment and see if we can get him going. That gives us a month to see if Emma (or GG) is MLB ready. Maybe even teach him 1B during the rehab assignment.

This is sad and unfortunate but needs to be done. This team is regressing to its mean, about a .450 winning %. It's time to turn over the roster. Wallner goes first so Emma can play. Next move is Outman gone for GG, then Clemens or Gray for Culpepper unless a Lewis injury opens up a spot for him earlier. I'd do the same thing in the bullpen but we don't have a lot in AAA and you can trade relievers at the deadline, even mediocre ones. Hell, I'd like to see Lewis on a rehab assignment in AAA playing 1B every day and a second half of Lewis/GG at 1B, Keaschall at 2B, Culpepper SS, Lee 3B, with Emma, Buxton, and Martin the starting OF, Larnach/GG at DH, Bell traded for young relievers, and a bench of GG (OF/1B), Gray (IF UTL), Caratini (C), and Wallner/Clemens (OF/1B). 

Outman isn't going anywhere.   He plays his role of PR and steals bases.   Anyone else brought up would need to play more and then the 2-3 start a week they would get.  Plus, Martin needs to play more.

[Major League Ready]

59 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Matt Wallner is quickly becoming a "change of scenery" guy. He has enough skill and talent to get the job done, he just can't seem to put it all together in Minnesota. I am positive there are teams out there looking at him saying "we can fix that". They should seriously look at moving him now.

IDK ... They wouldn't get anything for him so why not send him to AAA and get rid of some of that movement or at least try some type of change because this is not working at the ML level.   See if he can be salvaged.  Send him down and bring up eRod.

[Linus]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

I would be shocked if they cut Wallner. They can’t even move on from Outman and he’s been terrible for three consecutive seasons. They won’t let go of Wallner until he hits arbitration. They might use his option, but that just means he will make the MLB opening day roster next season because they will be too averse to losing him for nothing.

Unfortunately I think this assessment is more accurate than the article. They will not make a move until they have reached their sample size requirement (whatever metric that is). It’s this decision making model that has resulted in the Twins hanging on to failed players far too long and our current roster is exhibit A. I don’t care about the strikeouts as much as others do because the power is there. Bottom line is he just doesn’t make contact enough, he’s a bad outfielder (his strong arm is deceiving because he is wildly inaccurate with his throws) and makes more than his share of baserunning mistakes. The downside risk of losing him is near nothing. 

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

If Wallner is still injured from that HBP, give him an IL stint til hes right. Give him AAA ABs on a rehab assignment.  

Meanwhile, call up ERod to take his place and let him start. 

[tony&rodney]

Slow down a bit. Maybe May 12 or June 1 is possible if Wallner continues to struggle. Lewis too, but the front office might be loathe to ship him down or out. 

Outman does not require playing time. The Twins cannot call up a player like Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Culpepper, Fedko, or Jenkins need to be in the lineup every day if and when they get a shot. Ryan Kreidler is a guy who can be called up if that is what is needed.

Changes are coming but not for a couple of weeks or months. Fifty games is normally a check point.

[PatPfund]

Option Wallner to St Paul, and let him work on his swing and how to play 1B. And maybe try him in the bullpen there (used to be a pitcher; maybe a better road back there than as a hitter or especially an OF). Bring up Emma and start him. The time is also really short for Outman (I'd cut him today and start auditioning Saints OFs starting with Gabby). Bringing up an OF without sending one down also lets you move Mendez to AAA. Royce doesn't hit well enough for 1B; Twins should send him or Lee down to get better when they call up Culpepper.

[DJL44]

17 minutes ago, mickster said:

Outman isn't going anywhere.   He plays his role of PR and steals bases.   Anyone else brought up would need to play more and then the 2-3 start a week they would get.  Plus, Martin needs to play more.

Even in that limited role, Outman has negative value.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Matt Wallner is quickly becoming a "change of scenery" guy. He has enough skill and talent to get the job done, he just can't seem to put it all together in Minnesota. I am positive there are teams out there looking at him saying "we can fix that". They should seriously look at moving him now.

Skill and talent?

Gallo had more skill and talent and he is no longer a position player.  Too much here of not wanting to let go of the Pie-In-The-Sky bravado they have for players they like; for him it was excess a long time ago.

It would be sad to bring Rodriguez up and watch him do a Gallo, but it is probably time.

[RpR]

6 minutes ago, PatPfund said:

Option Wallner to St Paul, and let him work on his swing and how to play 1B. And maybe try him in the bullpen there (used to be a pitcher; maybe a better road back there than as a hitter or especially an OF). 

LOL, return of the Wild Thing.

[amjgt]

16 minutes ago, soyouresayingtheresachance said:

If Wallner is still injured from that HBP, give him an IL stint til hes right. Give him AAA ABs on a rehab assignment.  

Meanwhile, call up ERod to take his place and let him start. 

You stole my post. I was planning on saying basically exactly this.

[rdehring]

Should Wallner be either traded or sent down, you betcha.  Loved the idea from several of you above about putting him on the IL, then a rehab assignment.  Maybe, just maybe he could get hot at AAA, hit a couple really long home runs and someone would take a chance and give the Twins something.

I differ from most of you in that the person who should be replacing him in the everyday lineup is Austin Martin.  

[DJL44]

Wallner last 14 days: 384 OPS

Bell last 14 days: 475 OPS

They certainly don’t need two DH who can’t hit.

[Western SD Fan]

As much as I want Wallner out of the lineup, I also want to make sure that the players in St. Paul are ready for the show before calling them up.  Temporarily, it would better just to bench Wallner for Martin prior to calling up and Erod.  I do think calling up Erod, Jenkins, or whoever is ready is best for the long term.  If you reach a position where you think you can give Erod full playing time, then swapping him for Wallner makes sense.

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, mickster said:

Outman isn't going anywhere.   He plays his role of PR and steals bases.   Anyone else brought up would need to play more and then the 2-3 start a week they would get.  Plus, Martin needs to play more.

My frustration is that Martin isn't playing every day. You're right that Outman isn't the problem; Wallner is. Shelton seems to feel obligated to play Wallner a lot if he's on the roster even though there are 3 OFs much more productive so far this year. If he's on the IL or in AAA that opens up the lineup for Martin to play every day. That still leaves the problem of finding time for Emma to play unless Bell plays in the field, because they like to have Martin and Larnach in the OF so Bell can DH and Clemens play 1B. Once again, no room at the Inn for Emma. I think you have to deal with both Wallner and either Bell or Clemens before a spot really opens up for Emma. Bringing him up to platoon with Martin so some combination of Larnach, Bell and Clemens can play is a waste. The thought on Outman was to open up a roster spot for GG but you still have the problem of finding him ABs. 

This roster needs some major reshuffling before the AAA OFs can really get a chance. I'd like to get it started sooner rather than later.     

[bean5302]

Wallner needs a change of scenery. His sprint speed is in the toilet this year, he's totally outmatched at the plate and not seeing the ball well. He'll either get his head in the game or wash out of the game.

Emma should get the call and play every day as Outman gets DFA'd and Wallner demoted.