Austin Martin's New Strike Zone

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-Imagn Images

Since 1986, 19 different players have started an MLB season with an OBP of at least .515 in their first 23 games, with at least 60 plate appearances in those contests. As you'd guess, it's mostly superstars. Barry Bonds did that three times. Jason Giambi, John Olerud and Mike Trout did it twice each. The worst player to do so in the last 40 years is either Von Hayes or Wally Joyner, and even they were awfully good at their peak and never better than in the year they started that hot. That's the company Austin Martin is keeping now, after reaching base four times in Thursday night's game in New York.

Martin is, of course, being shielded from some right-handed pitchers, and the Twins have faced an extraordinary number of lefty starters early on. Still, the numbers Martin is now putting up—.347/.515/.469, in 68 plate appearances—are remarkable, and the team is starting to take notice. Martin's start Thursday night came against a right-handed starter, at the expense of slugging teammate Matt Wallner.

What's working so well? As you would guess, Martin is getting on base so much more by walking often, and he's walking often because he's swinging less than in the past. He's down from swinging just over 40% of the time to being under 32% this year—but when we break things down even further, the truth of the situation comes even more clearly into focus.

Late last season, I talked to Martin about how he handled the high pitch, as a hitter with a steep bat path but not much bat speed. His answer was simple: try not to swing at it. Force pitchers down into the middle of the zone, if at all possible. He was decent at that, too. Naturally, this season, his swing rate in the top third of the zone has... risen, while his swing rate along the bottom third has dropped considerably. Wait, what?

Martin is being much more patient, but not in the segment of the zone you'd expect to see him take that tack in. Instead, he's reaching down to the bottom of the zone much less often, despite a swing seemingly geared to get on plane with those offerings. What gives?

Well, firstly, you need to know that the strike zone isn't where it was last year. That's the biggest driver of Martin's change in approach, and well it should be. This season, with the ABS challenge system in place, the top and bottom of the zone are no longer set by the umpire's best estimate of the height of the hollow of Martin's knee or the halfway point between his belt and his shoulders. Martin was measured before the season, and a strike on him should now be between 27% of his height (around 19 inches) and 53.5% of his height (around 37.5 inches) above the ground. 

That's a short zone. The 5-foot-10 Martin ends up with almost a perfectly square zone, whereas in the past, we've always thought of most players' zones as being noticeably taller than they are wide. Umpires don't enforce these top and bottom lines perfectly, of course, but the league changed the tolerances of umpire grading last season to force them to be more accurate, in anticipation of exactly this dynamic. They've been very observant of each player's new rulebook zone, as best they can be, and Martin has the challenges themselves to help ensure that. He's 3-for-4 on ABS appeals this year, always using them to question the top and bottom of the zone. Opponents, meanwhile, have tried to find the top rail by challenging called balls up there twice, with no luck.

So, when we see Martin's swing rate in the top third of the zone rising, that's not really what's happening. Instead, the vertical thirds of the zone are getting smaller, and any increase in swing rate is happening in what used to be the middle of his strike zone. He's also dedicated himself to not chasing low pitches, because even though his swing tilt gets him in position to touch those balls easily, he can't drive them. He doesn't have the bat speed for that. He's chosen, instead, to lock in on things the opponents leave up a bit, where the lift is done for him and he can just hit the center of the ball. 

An altered zone means Martin can safely ignore what used to be the top third of his zone. Here's a side-by-side look at the results of pitches at which he didn't swing that came in at least 2.9 feet off the ground, for both 2025 and 2026. The raw height of the pitch when it got to home plate cuts off at the same point (34.8 inches) for both seasons, but look how many of those balls were in Martin's old zone and called strikes last year. This year, almost none are. 

It's hard to convey just how valuable being able to cut off that extra five inches or so at the top of the zone is, except by restating Martin's numbers. He's getting on base more than half the time, and hitting a ton of line drives in the process, because he has pressed a newfound advantage. He's not chasing down and out of the zone, and the top of the zone now seems to be much lower than it was in the past. That leaves a nice, squat square for him to defend, and his excellent hand-eye coordination is more than up to the challenge. 

That doesn't mean, of course, that his new true talent level is to hit .350. The matchups will even out; Martin will get less lucky; and the league will figure out how to pitch to the newly shrunken zone. For now, though, Martin's approach change—probably informed, via his coaches, by the installation of the ABS-influenced zone—suits his swing brilliantly, which has produced brilliant results. For a player who already had plenty of baserunning and defensive value, this could be the key to becoming a regular in the majors—or even a star.

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[tony&rodney]

The Twins need to find out what they have in Austin Martin. He has improved as an outfielder, but one wonders whether he can play all over the field. Right now his bat should be in the lineup every game because he is a headache for opposing pitchers as he drives up the pitch count.

[Jasper]

I agree play the hot hand. send Wallner down and get him right if it is possible.

[thelanges5]

Shelton doesn’t have much to play with on this mostly old(er) and slow roster. Martin has been fun to watch. One of the few bright spots of this team. #freeaustinmartin

[jmlease1]

Martin has done great. Would like to see him be a more impactful runner (more steals, less running into outs) but you have to love how he's just getting himself on base. I felt like he had a bit of a breakout last season and was heading in the right direction, and so far he's confirmed it. He's a very tough out right now, and I'm here for it.

With Keaschall struggling so much, I have to wonder if we might see him drop in at 2B to get his bat in the lineup?

[Blyleven2011]

Martin has patience ...

Martin has a good eye , draws walks and doesn't swing at lousy pitchers pitches ...

Martin gets on base , can steal bases mostly against righthanders  ( lefthanders he has trouble reading ) ...

Martin should be playing alot more than he is now , rest him if he needs it but play him ,  he won't hit for much power but he  is a hitter 3 out of 10 AB ...

Right now Martin is the hottest twins player in the lineup , play the hot hand and see what you have ...

Lots of first round draft choices on this squad and he's the best of the bunch right now ...

[TopGunn#22]

I think Austin Martin is a tremendous example of sometimes just letting a player be who he is, instead of trying to marginally improve their power or launch angle.  From the moment we acquired him as part of the Jose Berrios trade, there was concern he didn't have the proper "power profile" of the "modern ballplayer."  

In some ways, the Twins have come full circle.  Remember how we needed David Ortiz to use more of the field rather than being so pull happy?  Remember how that turned out...??  

What we are seeing of Martin now is a player who uses the whole field but is much more confident with his swing.  With his speed and base running ability, as long as he keeps getting on base at a high clip he's fine as a #1 or #2 hitter or a #8 or #9 hitter.  

And this is really what Luke Keaschall should be as well.  Could Keaschall be pressing to hit with more power when all he should really be doing is concentrating on barreling up balls and let the power play as it does?  I think so.

And this leads me to Marek Houston.  With a glove like his, if Houston as a hitter just hits .270-.280 with a .360-.380 OBP (kind of an Ernie Clement with multiple Platinum Gloves) that's all he needs to be to be a tremendous success.  

You should always try to improve players.  But sometimes, you've just got to accept who they are and magnify their strengths and minimize their weaknesses to get the best version of them.  The Twins rightfully never tried to make Rod Carew a 20 HR guy.  

[jmlease1]

5 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I think Austin Martin is a tremendous example of sometimes just letting a player be who he is, instead of trying to marginally improve their power or launch angle.  From the moment we acquired him as part of the Jose Berrios trade, there was concern he didn't have the proper "power profile" of the "modern ballplayer."  

In some ways, the Twins have come full circle.  Remember how we needed David Ortiz to use more of the field rather than being so pull happy?  Remember how that turned out...??  

What we are seeing of Martin now is a player who uses the whole field but is much more confident with his swing.  With his speed and base running ability, as long as he keeps getting on base at a high clip he's fine as a #1 or #2 hitter or a #8 or #9 hitter.  

And this is really what Luke Keaschall should be as well.  Could Keaschall be pressing to hit with more power when all he should really be doing is concentrating on barreling up balls and let the power play as it does?  I think so.

And this leads me to Marek Houston.  With a glove like his, if Houston as a hitter just hits .270-.280 with a .360-.380 OBP (kind of an Ernie Clement with multiple Platinum Gloves) that's all he needs to be to be a tremendous success.  

You should always try to improve players.  But sometimes, you've just got to accept who they are and magnify their strengths and minimize their weaknesses to get the best version of them.  The Twins rightfully never tried to make Rod Carew a 20 HR guy.  

Twins did accept who Martin was? They tried some things with him in the minors and when it wasn't really working he went back to his old swing and approach. Seems fine?

Marek Houston will be a massive success with his glove if he can put up a .360-.380 OBP in MLB. Notably, there's only 2 Twins on the 26-man right now who are doing just that, so I think we have to recognize that bar is fairly high. The kind of slash line you're setting as the goal for Houston is basically where Martin was last season, so if he does it at a premium defensive position, it'll be great. He's looking good in Cedar Rapids so far, but had a real hiccup when he was promoted last season, and it was fair to wonder what his bat would do. Part of the concern with Martin was whether that kind of profile would be sustainable when you're playing LF, where it's harder to add the same defensive value, and Martin has occasionally looked...wobbly out there.

And again: if the comp is Rod freakin' Carew, can we all just remember that you're comping someone against a no-doubt, first ballot Hall of Famer? (and notably, in Rod's best seasons, he was hitting 30 doubles and 10+ triples too: it wasn't all just slapping a single through the hole) Guys that hit .280 these days aren't easy to find. It'd be awesome if Houston ends up with Martin's profile as a hitter, but Martin is a bit of a rarity these days (and for good reason: it's hard to do it)

[Linus]

It will be interesting to watch how teams pitch to him going forward. They can’t just let him walk at his current clip. He’s getting better in all facets of the game so I hope they keep on playing him. His speed is an underdeveloped weapon IMO. He can run but makes a lot of mistakes on the bases that seem like they could be eliminated. 

[AceWrigley]

Rev up the Austin Martin. Froom froom baby.

[USAFChief]

I'm all for playing Martin more, but please, let's not "play him all over the field," or "drop him in at 2nd base."

Let's leave him alone to learn and play a position.  One of the issues with Martin has been defense. He's been getting better in LF. Leave him there.

Anybody can play anywhere is just a bad idea. 

[D.C Twins]

he needs to be playing every....single....day......

[amjgt]

I wonder if, league-wide, there's a correlation between change in walk rate and player height. 

The thesis statement being "tall players will walk less and short players will walk more."

It could be that it's too early to know for sure because the samples are too small, but the thesis does seem logical. 

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, AceWrigley said:

Rev up the Austin Martin. Froom froom baby.

Jumper cables for the Buck Truck.

[Senior Softball Guy]

Marek Houston can hit .230 and be an asset if his fielding is first rate. Remember Greg Gagne was a glove first asset to two World Championship. We don't need Arod, we do need Greg Gagne 2.0

[Richie the Rally Goat]

@Matthew Trueblood fantastic article!

[stringer bell]

Regarding the base running, Martin has been facing mostly left handers and they get substantially more pick-offs and it’s harder to steal with the pitcher looking right at you. He doesn’t seem to have the instincts of Keaschall and certainly not of Buxton. But he is fast enough that he’ll steal a lot of bases and the percentage should get pretty close to league average. The key is to not run into outs, while taking advantage of what the defense gives you. 

[JD-TWINS]

5 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Martin has done great. Would like to see him be a more impactful runner (more steals, less running into outs) but you have to love how he's just getting himself on base. I felt like he had a bit of a breakout last season and was heading in the right direction, and so far he's confirmed it. He's a very tough out right now, and I'm here for it.

With Keaschall struggling so much, I have to wonder if we might see him drop in at 2B to get his bat in the lineup?

Martin at 2B - Keaschall optioned (Kriedler back) - Wallner optioned - Emma in RF. Could use the two “optioned guys” back in June/July or whenever they are ready!

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I'm all for playing Martin more, but please, let's not "play him all over the field," or "drop him in at 2nd base."

Let's leave him alone to learn and play a position.  One of the issues with Martin has been defense. He's been getting better in LF. Leave him there.

Anybody can play anywhere is just a bad idea. 

He was drafted as a SS - moved to 2B - then moved to OF to fill the void in RH hitting outfielders. I don’t like jerking him around either but Keaschall needs relief from somewhere! Either bring up Culpepper and move Lee to 2B OR try Martin back at 2B. He’s not replacing a gold glover at 2B.

He’s a better fit there than Lewis & that was considered last summer.

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, Linus said:

It will be interesting to watch how teams pitch to him going forward. They can’t just let him walk at his current clip. He’s getting better in all facets of the game so I hope they keep on playing him. His speed is an underdeveloped weapon IMO. He can run but makes a lot of mistakes on the bases that seem like they could be eliminated. 

Likelihood is they throw more strikes & he needs to swing more……… BA may drop to .260 …….. Walk rate may drop to 10-11% ……… still a .365 OBP. That works for sure!!

[Jeff K]

4 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I'm all for playing Martin more, but please, let's not "play him all over the field," or "drop him in at 2nd base."

Let's leave him alone to learn and play a position.  One of the issues with Martin has been defense. He's been getting better in LF. Leave him there.

Anybody can play anywhere is just a bad idea. 

I agree with your statement, but also think he is a decent back-up 2nd baseman.  His primary position should be left field.

[karcherd]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Martin at 2B - Keaschall optioned (Kriedler back) - Wallner optioned - Emma in RF. Could use the two “optioned guys” back in June/July or whenever they are ready!

Kriedler is a worse bat than Keaschall.  Have some patience, just like Milwaukee and SD did with their young players last year.  These AAAA players are not the answer.  There are plenty of AB's for Martin in the OF, just stop platooning everyone.

[stringer bell]

Well, 1-3 with a double and a walk today. Pretty much in line with his performance so far this season. 

[DocBauer]

I think Martin has proved he has turned a corner. As a result, I do believe he has earned the right to face more RHP at this time. Didn't he get 2 hits against the Mets RH starter a couple days ago?  He's spent most of his life batting against RHP, so with the improvement he's shown, you'd think he's at least CAPABLE of being decent against them. And let's be honest, we need the best hitters and OB guys we can get.

I don't have a problem with Larnach continuing to play some LF. Perhaps Martin gives Buxton or Wallner a day off here and there. And when Martin starts in LF against RHP, Larnach could DH some and Bell could play a few games at 1B. It doesn't require a magician to find ways to shuffle the lineup a little here and there.

In regard to 2B, I want Keaschall to get all the rope he can, and all the time at 2B that he can, to grow defensively and work out of his cold start. You are often rewarded by letting young players grow and develop and live with some speed bumps. But Martin HAS played 2B in college, the minors, and some at the ML level. I don't believe that's his spot. And I don't want to mess with his defensive develop in the OF. But we're not talking about SS or 3B and turning him in to a super utility player. We're just talking about ONE INF spot here and there. So I don't think it's a crazy idea to work him out there and drop him in once in a while to give Keaschall a day off here and there.

Since Houston was brought up, it would be FANTASTIC if he could hit .270 with a .360 OB%. But .250 and .340 with his glove would still be very good. Add in some solid base running, double digit SB, and 40-45 XBH could still make him a borderline All Star player. But as has been pointed out, if his bat becomes only Gagne quality, he'd still be a valuable player. With all due respect to Gags, Houston looks like a firm notch above him defensively.

[stringer bell]

I don’t want to quote the whole post by @DocBauer, but .270 BA and .360 OPB is a pretty close approximation to Martin’s career stats through just over 500 plate appearances. It figures out to be 108 OPS+.

If Houston could supply those offensive numbers with good defense, he would be a very valuable player.