Twins 10, Rays 4: Tristan Gray Grand Slam Powers Home Opener Victory

[Matt Braun]

Box Score
Bailey Ober: 4 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
Home Runs: Tristan Gray (1)
Top 3 WPA: Trevor Larnach (.023), Josh Bell (.022), Eric Orze (.014)
Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

A power outage. Perhaps a bit on the nose, huh?

The Twins, fresh off an encouraging getaway day victory in Kansas City, entered Friday looking to start their home residency with success. Matters so far had been unclear. Much as the Kansas City weather was foggy, the team hadn’t yet displayed brilliance, nor outright terribleness. Their quality was hazy. A positive vision existed only In bits and spurts, occasionally overwhelmed by some truly horrendous relief pitching and woeful hitting against southpaws. Would they reveal their true nature on Friday?

Bailey Ober earned the nod. Between him and his piggyback-ee, Mick Abel, manager Derek Shelton preferred his veteran, even if his declining velocity exceeded ordinary concern. It appeared a mistake early: Ober ran into trouble early, eventually surrendering a pair of runs when Nick Fortes smacked a lethargic fastball just above Tristan Gray’s head, easily scoring the two runners who were already on base. Tampa Bay would later tack on with a Ben Williamson RBI double in the fourth.

The Twins' offense lay dormant for a few frames, evidently vexed by starter Joe Boyle’s awesome stuff. The Missouri native standing just one inch shorter than his counterpart—a rarity for someone as tall as Jayson Tatum (Shelton joked pregame that the contest would begin with a jump ball to determine last ups)—hustled high-90s heat and dastardly sliders with cutting efficiency. He may have walked a man or two, but he didn’t care; he would simply strike out the next guy. The luxuries of a pitcher with swing-and-miss stuff.

Minnesota finally found a rally in the fourth. Luke Keaschall singled and stole second. Josh Bell stepped to the plate and softly served a parachute double into right; the ball didn’t cross 70 MPH—safely below speeding ticket-territory on every highway in the union—but landed perfectly in no-man’s land, allowing Keaschall to score the team’s first run. 

The Twins weren’t done. Ryan Jeffers plopped another ducksnort into right to advance Bell to third, and Trevor Larnach walked to load the bases for Royce Lewis—perhaps the worst hitter to load the bases for. Armed with his Grand Slam aura, Lewis… grounded to short. Carson Williams muffed the ball, though. Every runner advanced a base, and a second run scored. The rally concluded with a Gray sacrifice fly.

Two innings came and went. So began the seventh. The one inning to rule them all. Byron Buxton started the rally with a hit by pitch (he would be pinch-run for by James Outman). The new runner swiped second, and Keaschall singled. Bell—unsatisfied with just one RBI knock—stroked a single into center to give Minnesota their first lead of the day. The action did not end there. Jeffers reached on a fielder’s choice to load the bases. The next two batters moved the assembly line with walks. Then, Tristan Gray did the damn thing, shooting a screaming liner just above the elevated wall in right field, clearing the bases with a Grand Slam. Suddenly, the Twins led 10-3.

Rain started to fall on the field after the slam. Even Mother Nature knows when a game is over. Tampa Bay scratched across a run for window-dressing; Cody Laweryson closed matters in a now pounding precipitation with an easy 1-2-3 frame, giving the Twins a win in their 2026 home debut. 

Notes:

Byron Buxton exited the game with a right forearm contusion. X-rays were negative.

Tristian Gray's five RBIs are a single-game career-high; he entered the game with 13 MLB RBIs.

Minnesota's six steals on the season are the fifth-most amongst AL teams.

Trevor Larnach has walked five times and struck out just once in 13 plate appearances.

Post-Game Interview:

 

 

What’s Next?
The Twins and Rays meet again for a Saturday evening match, with Mick Abel slated to start his first game of the year opposite the veteran southpaw, Steven Matz. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10 PM. 

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

	MON	TUE	WED	THU	FRI	TOT
Kent	0	0	47	0	0	47
Laweryson	0	0	36	0	10	46
Funderburk	26	0	0	15	2	43
Topa	10	0	0	13	17	40
Orze	0	0	0	0	37	37
Banda	0	0	12	0	17	29
Rogers	14	0	0	4	0	18
Sands	0	0	0	11	0	11
Abel	0	0	0	0	0	0

 

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[CharlieDee]

Good to see the support from a nice crowd on a chilly day.  Win Twins!

[puckett_34]

Nice win. However, the platinum sombrero by Wallner is a bit…ouch. Guy might not be seeing it well early on…

[Linus]

Props to the author for using the term ducksnort. Brought me back to Legion ball which was long ago. 

[tony&rodney]

Baseball in this weather is brutal. Hard to get on the players.

One has to be impressed by the fan turnout today. Sitting or standing in 30 some degree wet weather with a wind blowing while watching a game isn't recommended for anyone's health. Kudos to the fans. 

The Twins are trying their best in my opinion. No sense in criticizing a player for physical errors. If the Twins can vastly reduce mental errors they can improve.

On the subject of errors, people need to totally disregard those. There is no standard or even a fair judgment on how those rulings go in today's MLB baseball. At this point I'm fine with getting rid of ERA (use runs allowed) and errors. Just make it standard. A guy reaches base, it is a hit. Of course, that is ridiculous but we have already seen a dozen errors ruled hits this young season. 

Does anyone else note that Ober's loss of velocity (he never threw hard) has concerned too many people. When Ober keeps the ball out of the middle and keeps batters off balance he gets outs. His stamina seems to lag and that seems strange because he sure looks like a big strong man. I think Ober will always get hit when he throws it middle, middle and it doesn't make much difference if he throws 88 or 92 mph. The funky delivery and mix of pitches on the edge or just off the corners will work. He needs the stamina back though.   

The Tampa Bay players and Manager Kevin Cash looked shocked that the game wasn't postponed. 

[Jack Pine]

35 minutes ago, Linus said:

Props to the author for using the term ducksnort. Brought me back to Legion ball which was long ago. 

Wasn't it Bert who refered to it as a duque phart?

[terrydactyls]

32 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

On the subject of errors, people need to totally disregard those. There is no standard or even a fair judgment on how those rulings go in today's MLB baseball. At this point I'm fine with getting rid of ERA (use runs allowed) and errors. Just make it standard. A guy reaches base, it is a hit. Of course, that is ridiculous but we have already seen a dozen errors ruled hits this young season. 

I agree.  In the 1970's, when I made out the batting order for my team, the only stat I used was the HITHDHGOB statistic.  HITHDHGOB was an acronym for How In The Hell Did He Get On Base measure that I created.  If a player reached base without causing someone else to be out, he was awarded a point.  That total was divided by the total number of at bats (including walks and sacrifice flies).  I used this as my method for choosing the lineup (the higher the number, the higher in the lineup).  There were two players who year after year finished first or second in HITHDHGOB and led off the lineup.  The person with the highest actual batting average usually batted third or fourth.  Weird, eh?

[Linus]

19 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

I agree.  In the 1970's, when I made out the batting order for my team, the only stat I used was the HITHDHGOB statistic.  HITHDHGOB was an acronym for How In The Hell Did He Get On Base measure that I created.  If a player reached base without causing someone else to be out, he was awarded a point.  That total was divided by the total number of at bats (including walks and sacrifice flies).  I used this as my method for choosing the lineup (the higher the number, the higher in the lineup).  There were two players who year after year finished first or second in HITHDHGOB and led off the lineup.  The person with the highest actual batting average usually batted third or fourth.  Weird, eh?

I believe Tom Kelly came up with a similar system to analyze a hitter’s effectiveness. I wish I could remember the details but it was pretty simple as it was done manually but quite effective. It had something to do with the hitter advancing himself or others without making outs. It may not have been TK it might have been Mauch. 

[Old Twins Hat]

Another ugly game among many.  Shocking how awful the Rays look and have played this early part of the season -- leading the league in errors, and in bullpen ERA.  Junior Caminero with 7 errors already?   

Kevin Cash, longest tenured manager in MLB, must be feeling insecure.

Sorry, but Ober's velocity does matter.  The Rays had four hard-hit doubles in four innings.  Ober threw 80 pitches before being pulled.  We can hope that a 6' 9" right-handed Jamie Moyer will be able to hold a spot in the rotation, but, reality is, with fast ball velocity dropping below 90, below 89, it's just not going to play against good teams.  I have loved watching him pitch, but now, it's cringe-worthy.

Wallner?  Five K's, some in big situations, and the Twins still score 10?  What an ugly game, only slightly more palatable than the 12-9 disaster in KC amidst a typhoon.

Will see what happens, but Keaschall is the Twins best player, and the next best 3 or 4 are currently playing in St. Paul. Hope Buck is okay but he has been striking out all spring, in WBC and now in the regular season.  Not a good look, and not looking good for the Twins -- terrible baserunning, indifferent defense, spotty hitting with RISP -- the best part of their team, hilariously enough, has been their bullpen!

[Baumer67]

Maybe play Larnach more than Wallner. He has struck out 8 times in the last 2 games.  About 60% of his at bats thos year 

[Permanent Twins Fan]

Ugly games from Wallner and Clemens, but it is nice to see the Twins get a win behind an unexpected offensive outburst, and a suprisingly effective bullpen.

[terrydactyls]

I wonder if Emma, Gabe, or Jenkins would strike out eight times in two days.

[The Great Hambino]

23 minutes ago, Old Twins Hat said:

Kevin Cash, longest tenured manager in MLB

I cannot believe that is true, but it is.  That's wild to me

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

I was at the game today. Very fun game to watch. Ober definitely battled. He didn't have his best stuff. Wallner, it was tough to watch those at bats. Ouch. Gray had himself a game, thats for sure. He may very well be the starting SS soon if he keeps playing like he has been. It was fun watching baseball in the rain. Although, I've never seen a game continue to played after lightning strikes. 

Go Twins!

[USAFChief]

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Old Twins Hat said:

Another ugly game among many.  

1 hour ago, soyouresayingtheresachance said:

I was at the game today. Very fun game to watch.

Diff'rent Strokes for diff'rent folks.  😁

[USAFChief]

2 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Diff'rent Strokes for diff'rent folks.  😁

 

[ashbury]

Brooks Lee was said to be out of the lineup due to illness today.  Wonder if he just got Wally Pipped? 

(Pipp's the guy reputed to have said "I took the two most expensive aspirins in history," after leaving the door open for Gehrig due to a headache. If it isn't true, it should be.)

[knothole61]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

Diff'rent Strokes for diff'rent folks.  😁

 

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

 

And I'm suffering the ignominy of having claimed on Thursday that Gray was "not ready for primetime." Maybe I can have a little credit for an effective use of the "reverse jinx"?

[UK Twin]

The problem with Ober is that he has to be pin point accurate with command of his off speed pitches. Because of his height, his 91-92 mph fastball of a couple of years ago was effective. But 89-90 isn't going to cut it without his changeup/slider/sweeper all working well. Caminero lining a FB well above the strike zone for a double is evidence of that. When he falls behind in the count he's always going to struggle to get outs. Having said that he always fights and both of his starts haven't got out of hand and kept us in the game and I can respect that.

So happy for Gray, He's been a very pleasant surprise so far. Lee's going to struggle to get back in the line up right now. 

Seeing plenty of fight in the team which is good to see. Almost as if they've got a huge chip on their shoulders after being written off by pretty much everyone.

[Peter]

Important win!!! 2 in a row and yes twins are playing with chip on their shoulder!!! If you go to facebook it’s soooo toxic and negative!!! They are scumbag 🗑️🤮💩A holes!!! F them!! Let’s get win today back to .500 and take this series! Go Twins!!! 

[CRF]

Wallner needs to figure out how to do something with guys on base. He's great at hitting a solo shot here and there when it doesn't matter, but if he comes up with ducks on the pond...he's useless. Ober is going to be a problem going forward. All in all...a good win on an awful weather day. There will be another one today. 

[Werbellik]

7 hours ago, USAFChief said:

 

Wuchyou talkin bout Willis

[tony&rodney]

10 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

I agree.  In the 1970's, when I made out the batting order for my team, the only stat I used was the HITHDHGOB statistic.  HITHDHGOB was an acronym for How In The Hell Did He Get On Base measure that I created.  If a player reached base without causing someone else to be out, he was awarded a point.  That total was divided by the total number of at bats (including walks and sacrifice flies).  I used this as my method for choosing the lineup (the higher the number, the higher in the lineup).  There were two players who year after year finished first or second in HITHDHGOB and led off the lineup.  The person with the highest actual batting average usually batted third or fourth.  Weird, eh?

Interesting. Coaches tended to create their own "analytics". I did too, decades ago, for roughly similar reasons. It is one reason I fail to kneel at the altar of the current trends, although I don't dismiss them. The managers and coaches are working with the team on hand. It is different from level to level: who tries out, volunteers, recruits, and those signed by upper management. There are no more Connie Macks. BTW, even now there are rare moments when I run into or hear from a former player about my "strange" formulas and the initials for them.

[jmlease1]

So far two guys I didn't want on the roster are playing pretty well: Larnach and Gray. It's early, but Twins are looking like they knew what they were doing in keeping those two. We'll see if it holds?

Ober is concerning. His changeup was great and the sweeper is very effective, but I just don't know if he can eat up enough innings with this version of his fastball, which is more of a medium ball right now. Maybe when the weather warms up a bit? We'll need the other guys in the rotation to go deeper in games if this ends up being where Ober is I'm afraid.

Caminero is having a rough start to it for TB; feels like they changed that second error to hit for Keaschall on some kind of mercy rule so that he might not lead SportsCenter with a "guess who had 7 errors in 7 games!" He's poor fielder (18 errors last season! yikes) but this is brutal. 

[jorgenswest]

Really nice work from the pen in difficult conditions. Defense held up in difficult conditions also. Those two innings from Orze were critical.

I appreciate the players like Gray who battle so hard to make the major leagues. It has to take a toll moving from organization to organization and minor league town to minor league town to fight to stay in the game you love. It is frustrating when the Twins acquire these players (as all teams do) and the first words in response to the news reported by TD is for us to really tear down these men who have given so much of themselves.

Well done Tristan. Glad you are a Twin.

[Jeff K]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

So far two guys I didn't want on the roster are playing pretty well: Larnach and Gray. It's early, but Twins are looking like they knew what they were doing in keeping those two. We'll see if it holds?

Ober is concerning. His changeup was great and the sweeper is very effective, but I just don't know if he can eat up enough innings with this version of his fastball, which is more of a medium ball right now. Maybe when the weather warms up a bit? We'll need the other guys in the rotation to go deeper in games if this ends up being where Ober is I'm afraid.

Caminero is having a rough start to it for TB; feels like they changed that second error to hit for Keaschall on some kind of mercy rule so that he might not lead SportsCenter with a "guess who had 7 errors in 7 games!" He's poor fielder (18 errors last season! yikes) but this is brutal. 

I'm glad that Larnach is hitting pretty well.  Because he is a poor fielder, I haven't changed my perspective that he is in the way of the youngsters who look to be two way players.  I hope that Larnach is increasing his trade value and the Twins take advantage of that.  

[JD-TWINS]

10 hours ago, ashbury said:

Brooks Lee was said to be out of the lineup due to illness today.  Wonder if he just got Wally Pipped? 

(Pipp's the guy reputed to have said "I took the two most expensive aspirins in history," after leaving the door open for Gehrig due to a headache. If it isn't true, it should 

[LambchoP]

At this point early on, Larnach looks locked in while Wallner looks completely lost at the plate. Not sure if Larnach can play RF opening up LF for Martin, but Wallner may need a reset in St. Paul. It worked last year anyways:). On the pitching side, I really worry about Ober. If he's only throwing 88-89 this early I don't think he's going to last. With Abel being a crapshoot and Zebby not looking good in AAA, I think they should really sign Giolito. That is if they really want to compete this year, which I'm not sure they really do....

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

So far two guys I didn't want on the roster are playing pretty well: Larnach and Gray. It's early, but Twins are looking like they knew what they were doing in keeping those two. We'll see if it holds?

Ober is concerning. His changeup was great and the sweeper is very effective, but I just don't know if he can eat up enough innings with this version of his fastball, which is more of a medium ball right now. Maybe when the weather warms up a bit? We'll need the other guys in the rotation to go deeper in games if this ends up being where Ober is I'm afraid.

Caminero is having a rough start to it for TB; feels like they changed that second error to hit for Keaschall on some kind of mercy rule so that he might not lead SportsCenter with a "guess who had 7 errors in 7 games!" He's poor fielder (18 errors last season! yikes) but this is brutal. 

37F & damp/wet wasn’t doing him any favors - he is not “good” anywhere though apparently ……….. pretty sure that DeLaCruz lead baseball with 29 a year or two ago …….. Caminero is well on his way!