Finding Solace in the Wake of Pablo López's Bad News

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Jonah Hinebaugh/Naples Daily News/USA Today Network-Florida / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Twins spring training started with a thud on Monday. All of the customary positive energy and vibes from the opening rally cries and first full-squad workout were dampened by Pablo López's ominous report of elbow soreness. He underwent an MRI and on Tuesday we learned that its results confirmed, essentially, the worst: López has "significant tearing" in his UCL and is almost certainly headed for season-ending Tommy John surgery.

There's no downplaying the catastrophic impact on whatever slim chances this year's Twins team had to contend in the AL Central. López is arguably their best player, and his absence will leave a huge void atop a rotation that needed to be Minnesota's carrying strength if they were to take the league by surprise.

In my opinion, though, that was already a pretty substantial long shot. And it's not just my opinion: Even with a healthy López, the Twins had a Vegas over/under of 73.5 wins, and I don't think any projection system pegged them as even a .500 team. The bullpen and lineup challenges will be so much to overcome. The emerging young core hasn't quite arrived. As I wrote in my overview of the organization's talent landscape, 2027 feels like the most realistic target for any type of short-term contention.

And through that lens, maybe the López news doesn't feel quite so dire. 

Look at it this way. The best-case scenario this year for López was a fully healthy rebound that saw him reliably take the mound every fifth day and resume pitching like a frontline starter. Those efforts would've probably gone to waste on a Twins team that lacks the offensive strength and bullpen to win regularly, so the odds of López being traded in this scenario — at the deadline or after the season — seem pretty high. 

But now, if he misses the entire season, López is all but assured of being back in 2027, albeit probably with a slightly delayed start. This would enable him to potentially support a more developed, well-constructed team with actual championship aspirations. 

Of course, with the CBA about to expire and labor tensions already running high, there's a distinct possibility that a lockout could wipe out some or all of the 2027 season. That'd be a bummer for the Twins and their timeline but look at it from López's perspective: He'll miss out on some or all of his salary in the final year of his contract, and he'll be staring down free agency as a 32-year-old with little production to showcase from the past three years, and maybe not a single pitch thrown in the past two.

 

It's a sobering reality for the right-hander, who has built up an impressive résumé that includes an All-Star appearance, playoff success, and — previously — a pretty good track record for durability (he ranked seventh in the majors in IP from 2022 through 2024). He faces a great deal of uncertainty as he stares down a lengthy recovery from his second Tommy John surgery, and an ensuing lockout. 

This opens the door for a mutually beneficial contract extension that would give López some long-term stability and peace of mind, while theoretically securing his services post-2027 at a very favorable value. I'm not sure exactly what terms would make sense for both sides but I'm very interested in a multi-year extension that locks up, say, his age 32-through-34 seasons (2028 through 2030) for somewhere in the range of $15-20 million annually. 

It wouldn't exactly be new ground for the Twins, who signed Michael Pineda as a free agent and Chris Paddack to an extension under similar circumstances, albeit at a smaller scale. Results have been mixed in past instances. But with his legendary work ethic and exceptional talent, I have little doubt López will eventually come back strong from this latest setback, and I love the idea of entrenching him as an ongoing veteran rotation leader for whatever team emerges out of the current "reset."

If Tom Pohlad wants to make a demonstrable investment in the future success of the team, this would be a good way to do it, and it's also a very sensible baseball decision for a franchise that seems destined to compete on middling payrolls. It's the kind of move that probably wouldn't have been possible if López had a healthy, stellar season this year and either got traded or priced himself out of Minnesota's comfort zone.

 

Is this all a bit of mental gymnastics? Probably. It’s never good when your ace blows out his elbow and a season that already felt tenuous suddenly tilts further toward irrelevance. There’s real pain in losing López for a year — for the clubhouse, for the fans, and especially for him.

But as someone who genuinely loves watching Pablo López pitch — the craft, the intensity, the professionalism — the idea of trading one lost year for several meaningful ones on the other side is the only silver lining I can muster right now. If 2026 was always unlikely to be the year anyway, maybe the best outcome is ensuring López is still here when the window actually opens.

It’s a stretch, sure. It requires patience, optimism and a front office willing to act boldly. But at a moment when the short-term outlook just got a lot bleaker, betting on López being part of the next good Twins team feels like something worth holding onto.

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[LewFordLives]

Thanks for the glass half full article. Of course, if a couple of the young starters step up then there's no need to even go through these scenarios. 

The Twins paid a high price at the deadline to bolster their young pitching. Maybe it will pay dividends. At some point while Pablo is deep into his rehab we should know one way or the other.

[Rufus]

Well Buxton could go down

[Jim H]

I too would like them to extend Lopez. For pretty much the same reasons you gave. He is one the reasons to watch this version of the Twins. I am afraid it will longer than 2027 to create a truly competitive team. I am hopeful that we may see the bones of a good team by 2027. Zoll and company will need a lot of things to go right to transform their current group into a good team that quickly.

[DJL44]

It would be smarter to offer contract extensions to their pre-arbitration players

[LastOnePicked]

"it's also a very sensible baseball decision"

Is it, though? Do you really want to lock up $40M on a player before you even know how they'll emerge from surgery? A second TJ surgery, I might add. That money would be far better served locking in any emerging young stars.

No. Best case scenario at this point is that Pablo returns in 2027, pitches well, and can be traded for 1-2 solid prospects at the 2027 trade deadline. The REAL best case scenario would see Lopez winning playoff games for us next year, but that's not even a remotely realistic scenario at this point.

[Nick Nelson]

9 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

"it's also a very sensible baseball decision"

Is it, though? Do you really want to lock up $40M on a player before you even know how they'll emerge from surgery? A second TJ surgery, I might add. That money would be far better served locking in any emerging young stars.

No. Best case scenario at this point is that Pablo returns in 2027, pitches well, and can be traded for 1-2 solid prospects at the 2027 trade deadline. The REAL best case scenario would see Lopez winning playoff games for us next year, but that's not even a remotely realistic scenario at this point.

Genuine question: what "emerging young stars" are you looking to lock up in 2028-30 at high salaries? Royce Lewis? Matt Wallner isn't due for free agency until 2030. Luke Keaschall not until 2032. 

The Twins have essentially no payroll commitments in that timeframe, and there aren't any big expenses creeping up in the current core. If they're going to invest in winning during those years, they'll need to pay some veterans to supplement the young core. Personally, I'll go with the player who I know and believe in like Lopez vs some high-priced FA mercenary like Framber Valdez.

[OregonTwinsFan]

Interesting concept. They are going to need pitching anyway...you can never have too much. Why not invest in an extension with Pablo at a team-friendly, reasonable rate? I vote yes.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

[GNess]

The Twins have to consider creative  methods such as this to. build a strong roster given that they don't seriously participate in free agency and their record in developing young talent is average at best.

[Hrbeks Divot]

I don’t mind the idea but if we go that route then I also think we need to go full tear down. Are we realistically going to be able to sign Joe Ryan to a long term extension? Get more young talent for him and Jeffers now that lines up with the 28-30 timeframe. Let Buck decide if he wants to ride it out or look for trading partners for him as well.

[LastOnePicked]

26 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

The Twins have essentially no payroll commitments in that timeframe, and there aren't any big expenses creeping up in the current core. If they're going to invest in winning during those years, they'll need to pay some veterans to supplement the young core. Personally, I'll go with the player who I know and believe in like Lopez vs some high-priced FA mercenary like Framber Valdez.

Wouldn't that money be better used on a Joe Ryan extension, for example? Or a real free-agent splash if a 2028 contention window opens?

They might also make a savvy trade for an emerging or undervalued starter (or reliever, or shortstop) and then turn around and use that money instead to offer a contract extension to that player. Similar to what we did with Lopez in the first place.

Or they might make a deadline trade and have to take on a large salary from a star on a floundering team.

$40M is a lot to spend on a pitcher with a pretty significant injury history who may never return to form. Better to see how he is post-recovery than to needlessly limit future payroll resources. But I like Pablo a lot as well, and I wouldn't be too terribly upset if they took your advice.

[arby58]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

It would be smarter to offer contract extensions to their pre-arbitration players

Which ones have anything close to Lopez' performance record? There was a time some might have thought it smart to offer contract extensions to Kirilloff, Julien, and Miranda.

[Old Twins Hat]

The word "solace" is doing a lot of work in this article, like $40M worth.

Going to need to get out my Oxford English Dictionary, but I don't think you can stretch it like that.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

It would be smarter to offer contract extensions to their pre-arbitration players

What, you don't think it's a great idea to lock up a pitcher coming off a major surgery in their 30s with a new CBA which will likely alter the free agent market and contract environment just because they're good (not great) and they've played on the Twins more than 1 year?

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Nick, I agree whole heartedly. Pablo is worth the risk. He is a special talent and an even more special man.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Genuine question: what "emerging young stars" are you looking to lock up in 2028-30 at high salaries? Royce Lewis? Matt Wallner isn't due for free agency until 2030. Luke Keaschall not until 2032. 

The Twins have essentially no payroll commitments in that timeframe, and there aren't any big expenses creeping up in the current core. If they're going to invest in winning during those years, they'll need to pay some veterans to supplement the young core. Personally, I'll go with the player who I know and believe in like Lopez vs some high-priced FA mercenary like Framber Valdez.

Lopez has been a good, not great pitcher who is controlled through his age 31 season already. His K rate has plummetted the past 3 years from a high of 10.86 to 8.68 last season. Now add in a UCL reconstruction and likely declining velocity for a pitcher who doesn't have exceptional velocity in the first place.

I'm not sure there is incentive for Lopez to take a big discount, either. If there's not a lockout next year and Lopez pitches well, he's probably in line for a 5 year deal. I don't know what the new CBA will look like, but if there is a strike, the Twins just locked Lopez up at pre-strike rates when MLB's revenues (and therefore contracts) will drop by at LEAST 30%. So the Twins lock up Lopez at a super premium rate just for the sake of familiarity?

This just doesn't seem like a good fit for either party right now.

[DJL44]

25 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Which ones have anything close to Lopez' performance record? There was a time some might have thought it smart to offer contract extensions to Kirilloff, Julien, and Miranda.

The Twins front office is on record that they believe Keaschall is an All-Star talent. I am skeptical but if they really believe it they should lock him up now until he’s 30.

Taj Bradley might be another to consider. Walker Jenkins is an obvious one.

Pre-arbitration players aren’t going to have a long track record, but that’s also why they can afford the contract. If you want “proven” talent you pay more, and then they still risk injury.

[Brandon]

This is a good opportunity to see if Tom really wants to compete this year.  He can pivot and sign Giolito to a 1 or 2 year deal..  make it happen.

[Vanimal46]

4 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Genuine question: what "emerging young stars" are you looking to lock up in 2028-30 at high salaries? Royce Lewis? Matt Wallner isn't due for free agency until 2030. Luke Keaschall not until 2032. 

The Twins have essentially no payroll commitments in that timeframe, and there aren't any big expenses creeping up in the current core. If they're going to invest in winning during those years, they'll need to pay some veterans to supplement the young core. Personally, I'll go with the player who I know and believe in like Lopez vs some high-priced FA mercenary like Framber Valdez.

Are you looking to hit a salary floor with that comment? And hit a salary cap? Who knows what baseball looks like after this season. 

[mikelink45]

Nice try Nick - Pablo missed most of last year, will miss most of this year and will be coming back with who knows what ability in the last year of his contract.  

This is another blow for the team and I am really sorry to read about this, but we have already paid for Mahle and others during their injury years and didn't get much of a return.

Save the money and invest in Pablo if he comes back strong of in someone who is pitching well.  

[nclahammer]

An extension is a very interesting point of view that was not on my radar.  I like the out of the box thinking, although this year could be (more) brutal and tough to watch without him.

[TL]

He’s a good guy to bet on for this type of contract. A lot of unknowns about the labor contract situation after this year but if a salary cap comes in it will also come with a floor, which means Twins payroll (and revenue) are higher. So locking him in now for ~15MM could be bargain. 

[Road trip]

Look, I get that Pablo is loved, and we want him to remain a Twin, but those advocating signing him to another contract now should study the results for 2nd UCL surgeries.  Add in the fact that Pablo is older than average for this procedure, and the odds of him returning to prior form are very bad.  See https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/39741491/

TLDR result: MLB pitchers provided only half of their value to teams at 3 years postoperatively.

Longer version:

At 3 seasons postoperatively, pitchers returned to performance in pitch count (55%), expected fielding independent pitching (68%), fWAR (48%), velocity (76%), fastball velocity (80%), horizontal movement (81%), vertical movement (66%), Stuff+ (78%), Location+ (89%), and Pitching+ (78%) at varying degrees. Only 3.9%, 11.8%, and 28.1% of pitchers returned to full performance by 1, 2, and 3 seasons postoperatively, respectively. Only an additional 19.3% of pitchers met 4 out of 5 full performance criteria. Binary logistic regression identified starting pitchers and preoperative faster velocity and older age as strong negative predictors of return to full performance.

 

[Edmond Dantes]

It is really hard to follow modern baseball with the frequent major injuries.

[shimrod]

Sure, let's double down on signing injured players because they cost less. That's the innovative thinking that resulted in a 70 win season last year. 

 

[jmlease1]

It's an interesting idea, and Pablo has shown an interest in security and certainty over maximizing his dollars in the past. But I don't really know what an extension would look like at this point?

I too would love to keep Pablo pitching here: terrific pitcher, very fun to watch, incredible dude. I would love for him to be here long enough that he considers MN his team and becomes part of the organization long-term, because he's an incredible ambassador for the game, mentor for other players, etc.

But it's probably going to be a difficult window to navigate.

[PDX Twin]

My pessimistic guess: He never pitches for the Twins again: Out this year with the UCL, no season next year, and off to resurrect his career with someone else the year after.

[Cris E]

2 hours ago, shimrod said:

Sure, let's double down on signing injured players because they cost less. That's the innovative thinking that resulted in a 70 win season last year. 

 

Sure, let's count the wins and pretend the team didn't sell off 40% of the MLB roster half way thru the year.  That's innovative thinking that makes or low effort, content-free posts. Whee.

Signing injury-prone guys to discounted contracts that protect the team from extended dead tail years is a great tool for teams without the huge revenue to lay with. Buxton's deal is fantastic. Correa's had team options for the last four years that let them out if he didn't reach 500-600PA (changed over time.)   

You think you can develop your way to the WS? Essentially no one has done that in years, decades even.  For anyone who loves to complain about Lavine and Falvey, go look at the starting nine last year.  They drafted about 7-8 guys who started a lot of games (Jeffers, Keashall, Lee, Lewis, Buxton, Wallner, Larnach) and how did that work? Fine, kinda, maybe, but you upgrade from that cheap base where you can. You need to buy some talent on the open market to fill roster holes, and to reach the last games you need some luck in the injury and individual performance areas. Combine all those things and you need to rely on some guys to stay healthy to get above a certain ceiling.  

[Craig Arko]

I’d recommend Scotch, or maybe Bourbon.