Is Simeon Woods Richardson a Better Starting Pitcher Than Bailey Ober?

[Cody Schoenmann]

Entering the 2026 MLB regular season, four of the Minnesota Twins’ five rotation spots are filled, headlined by co-aces Pablo López and Joe Ryan, popular bounceback candidate Bailey Ober, and an experienced yet still developing Simeon Woods Richardson. Zebby Matthews, Taj Bradley, David Festa, and Mick Abel will compete for the club’s fifth spot this Spring Training. The eight-pitcher collective is one of the most achieved, talented, and depth-abundant collectives that President of Baseball Operations Derek Falvey has constructed, with the 2023 septet of López, Ryan, Ober, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle, and Louis Varland being the only worthwhile challenger.

 

Again, López and Ryan are the two best arms among the eight pitchers listed. Understandably so, many who follow the Twins would be quick to list Ober as the third most talented arm in the collective. Since 2023 (when López joined Minnesota), Ober has objectively been Minnesota’s third most effective starting pitcher according to Wins Above Replacement at FanGraphs (fWAR), netting 6.6 during that three-season stretch to Ryan’s 8.6 and López’s 9.6. Yet, after undergoing a career-worst performance last season (5.10 ERA and 4.90 FIP over 146 1/3 innings pitched), Ober might no longer be the club’s third-best starter, with Woods Richardson potentially surpassing him.

 

Despite being demoted to Triple-A from mid-May to early-June, Woods Richardson improved in his second season as a full-time starter, posting a 4.04 ERA, 4.52 FIP, and a 107-to-46 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 111 1/3 innings. The 25-year-old stood out after the trade deadline, generating a 3.52 ERA, 3.95 FIP, and an elite 31.1% strikeout rate over 30 2/3 innings pitched. Given Ryan’s second-half struggles and López’s extended absence, the young righty operated as Minnesota’s best starting pitcher from Aug. 1 through Sept. 30. Meanwhile, Ober sputtered, posting a 4.80 ERA, 4.32 FIP, and his average four-seam fastball velocity sitting below 90 miles per hour. Woods Richardson vastly outperformed Ober late last season, and that trend could continue in 2026.

 

The primary reason Woods Richardson has likely usurped Ober as Minnesota’s third most effective starting pitcher is the continued refinement and improvement of his arsenal. The young righty’s average four-seam fastball velocity has steadily increased over his first four seasons in the majors, settling at 93.2 MPH in 2025. Ober, on the other hand, has undergone a meaningful decrease in average four-seam velo, with the pitch hovering around 91.7 MPH in 2024 (his best season) to sitting at 90.3 MPH last season. Despite still possessing a plus change, Ober’s slider has also undergone a significant drop in quality, evidenced by the pitch having above-average movement in 2024 to regressing into the eighth-worst slider in baseball in 2025, according to the slider run value leaderboard at Baseball Savant. Meanwhile, Woods Richardson sported an above-average slider according to the same metric, while throwing the highest number of them on the team (Ober threw the second most).

 

Obviously, much of Minnesota’s rotation success will be contingent on López and Ryan performing on par with or better than their career norms while remaining healthy. Still, Ober and Woods Richardson will play substantial roles in the club’s ability to field a plus rotation. As noted earlier, Ober’s struggles could have been the product of him pitching through injury. Still, if he continues to pitch poorly early next season and Woods Richardson continues to progress, the latter could solidify himself as Minnesota’s newest frontline arm.

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[NJM]

Yes, by a longshot in my opinion.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Spring will be super interesting for Ober. If he is hitting 91-93 this spring then he is definitely penciled in and ready to go. If he is more 88-89 for his 4 seam, then I can’t see him being one of their best 5 starting options.

[Eris]

It is hard to judge a pitcher when they are hurt, especially if it is a hip. If the hip is or becomes chronic then this is who Ober is as a pitcher. 

[bunsen82]

Depends on which Ober is pitching.  If its 2022-2024 Ober - he wins hands down,  if its 2025 I like SWR.   SWR is smart and extremely reliable starting pitcher.  He has extreme value and we just seem reluctant to use him to his full potential.  I think he is going to force the issue this year and not give his spot up.  

[Rod Carews Birthday]

SWR was solid last season -- everything that you would expect from a #4 type starter and maybe a little bit more.  Ober, our supposed #3, pitched more like a #5, and at times like a guy that didn't belong in the rotation.  If last year is the barometer, Ober seems to be trending down and SWR seems to be trending up, or at least even.  IF Ober can fix his issues, he's probably better, but I'm only giving that about a 25% chance of happening.  If I have to pick between the two, TODAY I'm picking SWR.  Can Ober come back or was his success built with smoke and mirrors?  Not sure.  

[roger]

 No.  Yes.  Maybe, depending on Ober’s health as bunsen82 said.

[Nashvilletwin]

Yes.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Ober is out of the rotation by year end. 

[Blyleven2011]

I can believe everything in this article ...

Will Ober be healthy and pitch like he did before 2025 , one never knows ...

Maybe someone should asks at twins fest if Ober will be 100 percent  ...

[Nashvilletwin]

Would you trade SWR for Ober right now?  I would not - both because SWR is probably better right now and SWR most likely has higher long term value to the organization. 

[Lasorda_This_Out]

The Diamond Centric BS opinion piece cowardly inserted into the Baseball focused Twins Daily is a real piece of work?

Shame on Twins Daily..

[KirbyDome89]

9 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

Depends on which Ober is pitching.  If its 2022-2024 Ober - he wins hands down,  if its 2025 I like SWR.   SWR is smart and extremely reliable starting pitcher.  He has extreme value and we just seem reluctant to use him to his full potential.  I think he is going to force the issue this year and not give his spot up.  

He didn't even average 5 innings per start last season Are the Twins holding back greatness here or are they protecting SWR and by proximity themselves? 

[h2oface]

It doesn’t matter. Their best is already past them. They will both get shelled this year. 

[Bodie]

No question about it.  Ober stunk last  year.  Tipping his pitches? Lack of "stuff"?  Just plain figured out by competent hitters?  "Gimmick" of being 6'10" solved because he throws about as hard as Radke pitched?

Hope it's the first and not latter choices...

[Doctor Wu]

No idea who is better. Let them arm wrestle for the title! With Ober batting some injuries last season, that obviously made him less effective. SWR has looked very good at times, but seemingly can't pitch more than 5 innings in his starts. Both pitchers need to have strong seasons, but I'm not overly confident that will happen. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

8 hours ago, Lasorda_This_Out said:

The Diamond Centric BS opinion piece cowardly inserted into the Baseball focused Twins Daily is a real piece of work?

Shame on Twins Daily..

Lasorda, what are you referring to?

[Nashvilletwin]

28 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Lasorda, what are you referring to?

Please TD no politics 

[MinnInPa]

no, IMO, Bradley neither..if i had to rank...Ryan, Lopez, Ober, Matthews ,Festa, SWR , Abel.. the latter 5 are all 5 inning guys..cant let them face the lineup 3rd time thru.. good early ..get shelled when left into long..But, we dont have middle relief ..or a set up man .or a closer.. thanks front office.. for nothing

[mikelink45]

Quote

The primary reason Woods Richardson has plausibly usurped Ober as Minnesota’s third-most effective starting pitcher is

that Ober fell below him  Festa, Zebby, SWR are in the rotation because no one has risen to push them out.

[JD-TWINS]

5 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

He didn't even average 5 innings per start last season Are the Twins holding back greatness here or are they protecting SWR and by proximity themselves? 

Ober was just dipping his toe into the Show at SWR’s age - Woods Richardson is 5 years younger and is coming into his 4th season at MLB level. Development is what has been done with SWR……to me they are handling him well - steady progression. Clearly, a solid #4 guy in the rotation…….maybe a #3 if he can get to 160 innings in ‘26 with a slight reduction in ERA?

[Linus]

I think the question should be is Ober better than Mathews Abel, et al. And if he is healthy I believe the answer is yes. 

[JD-TWINS]

18 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

that Ober fell below him  Festa, Zebby, SWR are in the rotation because no one has risen to push them out.

What’s wrong with SWR? ……. he’s gotten progressively better and he just turned 25. He’s starting his 4th season at MLB level……his velocity, like Ober, isn’t his calling card. He’s clearly ahead of Festa & Matthews from a consistency standpoint.

[bunsen82]

5 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

He didn't even average 5 innings per start last season Are the Twins holding back greatness here or are they protecting SWR and by proximity themselves? 

SWR gave us reliable innings and a 2.2 WAR for a bad team.   I am not expecting greatness.  However an above average MLB #4 borderline #3 starter is pretty damn good.  

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

No idea who is better. Let them arm wrestle for the title! With Ober batting some injuries last season, that obviously made him less effective. SWR has looked very good at times, but seemingly can't pitch more than 5 innings in his starts. Both pitchers need to have strong seasons, but I'm not overly confident that will happen. 

SWR will be 25 this season & Ober will be 30.

Ober’s first season in MLB was age 25…….he started 20 games and threw a total of 92.1 innings. This will be SWR’s 4th season & he threw 111.1 innings at age 24.

Matthews is going to be 26 this season & so will Festa. Neither has shown any real consistency - some very good outings and probably better stuff but not at SWR’s effectiveness - not yet.

I don’t see SWR as some dominant force but he seems to be ahead of these other guys at this point in time.

[bunsen82]

5 hours ago, h2oface said:

It doesn’t matter. Their best is already past them. They will both get shelled this year. 

SWR - is 25 years old and gets better each year

1. He has shown the ability to increase velocity,  due to needing it to be productive - does he choose to maintain the velocity he showed last year, or does he try to increase it a bit more.  

2. He has some of the best control on the staff.   If you have control you generally don't fall apart. 

3. He is probably our biggest student of the game. He continues to learn, evolve, and learning different ways to get people out.  

I would gladly take a bet with you that SWR doesn't get shelled this year.  

[Stew]

Yes, but Ober should have a better year . We will see.

[bean5302]

SWR has been surviving on smoke and mirrors according to many advanced metrics. xERA is impressed with him, but SIERA, FIP and xFIP put him as a 4.50ish ERA guy. A 4.50ish ERA guy who can't pitch more than 4-5 innings is something which a playoff caliber team would like to upgrade, if possible. What I've observed is SWR loses velocity quickly, and his stuff isn't good enough to operate in the zone so his pitch counts climb quickly. When SWR has operated in the zone, he's gotten hit hard. 

Ober "was" a superior option to what SWR has been in terms of expected outcomes and a reliable rotation arm because his stuff was simply better. Whether Ober has declined (expected as he's now age 30+) or if his hip has truly healed and he's back to his previous self will probably determine a lot on who is the better option. Ober throwing 89 is not an MLB caliber pitcher. Ober throwing 91+ is a solid #4.

[mikelink45]

7 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

What’s wrong with SWR? ……. he’s gotten progressively better and he just turned 25. He’s starting his 4th season at MLB level……his velocity, like Ober, isn’t his calling card. He’s clearly ahead of Festa & Matthews from a consistency standpoint.

i agree he is better than the other two  Is that good enough

[KirbyDome89]

7 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

SWR gave us reliable innings and a 2.2 WAR for a bad team.   I am not expecting greatness.  However an above average MLB #4 borderline #3 starter is pretty damn good.  

No, how is he being held back?

[KirbyDome89]

7 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Ober was just dipping his toe into the Show at SWR’s age - Woods Richardson is 5 years younger and is coming into his 4th season at MLB level. Development is what has been done with SWR……to me they are handling him well - steady progression. Clearly, a solid #4 guy in the rotation…….maybe a #3 if he can get to 160 innings in ‘26 with a slight reduction in ERA?

The post I quoted claimed that the team wasn't using him correctly. I'm curious how the Twins are supposedly holding him back.