Twins Select Catcher in the Rule 5 Draft, Trade Him to the Giants

[Dman]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

Garrett Spain. In the second round of the MiLB draft. I guess they figure on losing Outman when they DFA him. Yup, a poor hitting LH outfielder that has played all 3 spots.

Yeah gotta love that pick, lol.  It does look like they are short on outfield Depth at AA and I guess this is the best they could find?  Stat line is pretty bad though.  Well it's an extra body and they can hope for some improvement I guess. Given those stats I think I would have just promoted someone early or looked harder at AA free agents.  Oh well no big deal, but I did have your same reaction.

[amjgt]

41 minutes ago, KnoblauchWasFramed said:

Not gonna lie - seems like a stupid trade.  He would have been on the 40 man roster, yes, but he also likely competes for the backup spot behind Jeffers and could have maybe been ready to contribute at the MLB level.  But now, instead, we have a teenage prospect who is years away from even AAA.  We already have two catching prospects that fit the exact same situation.

Should have kept Susac and given him a shot to make the team this season.  

This ignores the fact that they obviously didn't want Susac. It's not like they picked him with the intent of keeping him and the Giants made them a sweetheart deal they couldn't refuse.

I'm sure this has been planned for several days. Twins didn't see anyone they liked enough to justify trying to keep them all season. The Giants liked Susac and probably called the teams near the top of the draft to work out a deal to take him. 

The Twins said, sure, we'll trade you the 4th pick, but it will cost you Caraballo.

[nicksaviking]

If I were to make a list of hardest things to evaluate in baseball, 17-year-old catchers might top that list.

But it's fine by me, I preferred the Twins didn't roster a pick anyway.

[sweetmusicviola16]

From what I can tell it's a solid trade to pick up a prospect that we wouldn't otherwise have had. I would like to have seen us pick a pitcher in round 2 that we could have had in camp and gotten a look at for essentially 50k. As the old saying goes you can't have too many pitchers. 

[tony&rodney]

Is the roster set now?

[Linus]

Kind of surprised they didn’t find a pitcher they could put in the bullpen. Plenty of opportunities. 

[Nashvilletwin]

This is a smart move.  Jeffers and Jackson are the catchers through the trade deadline.  There was zero chance the Twins were going to carry three catchers.  And they obviously didn’t have any other Rule 5 options that they liked.

So they grab what looks to be a pretty good lottery ticket at a position of long-term institutional weakness (Tait excluded) and lack of depth.

They turned their 4th selection into an attractive international signing instead of passing or selecting a player they know would not stick with the team.  What’s not to like?

[sweetmusicviola16]

18 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Is the roster set now?

Julien, Gasper, Outman remain untouchable. So yeah it's close to set up. 

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, Dman said:

I'd say odds are the Twins will get some money back as well.  I doubt they would pay the pick fee to just get the lotto ticket unless this guy ahs more potential than I think at this point.

 

They may have attempted to sign Carabello last year. 100k is less than 150K

[DocBauer]

So we get another young catcher to develop for the future. I don't have a problem with that. I'm just really surprised there wasn't a AA...maybe recent AAA promotion...arm that threw hard but was missing a 3rd pitch or had some control issues that didn't look like a draft and stash for the pen.

Question is now what?

Trade Larnach in a package for someone's young 4th or 5th pen arm with potential?

Sign 2 decent, solid pen arms to actual ML deals?

A 1B of decent quality? Lowe maybe?

That might just about do it...not inuding the usual MILB signings...unless there's a couple $M somehow left over for a reserve INF or 3rd FA pen arm?

[nicksaviking]

19 minutes ago, Linus said:

Kind of surprised they didn’t find a pitcher they could put in the bullpen. Plenty of opportunities. 

Reading the 'Top Available' lists for the Rule V, just about every single one of those pitchers had pretty big control issues. The Twins already seem to have a bunch of soon-to-be-reliever options they can put in the pen, including Culpepper and Lewis who weren't drafted but looked pretty much the same as the guys that did.

[Mike Sixel]

40 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

If I were to make a list of hardest things to evaluate in baseball, 17-year-old catchers might top that list.

But it's fine by me, I preferred the Twins didn't roster a pick anyway.

Same. But I'm happy they tried to add to the system. Literally zero risk here. Other than I guess Susac becoming a star. 

[Mike Sixel]

I remain amuised how worried people are this team will lose someone...

[Blyleven2011]

Early this morning I thought Rosario or fedko  might be taken either by the Royals who need outfielders  or st Louis Cardinals who are a rebuilding team  ....

I guess it wasn't to be and maybe either of these two could blossom this season and end up helping the big club in 2026 ...

[h2oface]

Posey wanted Susac. Thinks he is MLB ready and HITS! Falvey likes a 16 year old. One can help immediately. One probably never. Posey wanted Susac. Posey! He ought to know catchers. I’m betting on Susac and Posey. Falvey won’t even be around to see Cara…… whoever play AA ball, if he makes it that far. No need to remember his name. 

[LyleCole]

2 hours ago, amjgt said:

This ignores the fact that they obviously didn't want Susac. It's not like they picked him with the intent of keeping him and the Giants made them a sweetheart deal they couldn't refuse.

I'm sure this has been planned for several days. Twins didn't see anyone they liked enough to justify trying to keep them all season. The Giants liked Susac and probably called the teams near the top of the draft to work out a deal to take him. 

The Twins said, sure, we'll trade you the 4th pick, but it will cost you Caraballo.

You have to wonder what San Francisco knows that the Twins don't, or at least what they think they know.  They almost certainly know more about Caraballo than any other team and preferred bringing in Susac.  

Caraballo signed for a bonus of $172,000.   Even if the Twins paid the full $100k Rule V fee (they did apparently get back cash from Giants), they are in theory $72k ahead.  And they can develop this prospect over time rather than having to put Susac on the MLB roster the entire year.

I get the Twins probably got what they wanted in this trade.   They didn't really like anyone in the Rule V draft so they got an asset for their trouble.  

The problem with this approach is I think it is arrogant.  Their talent evaluation has resulted in a 40 man roster that includes Ryan Fitzgerald, Jhonny Pereda, Ryan Kreidler, Mickey Gasper, James Outman and that is after they did a major purge of other at best replacement level players .   

WHY NOT TAKE A CHANCE ON A RULE V PLAYER?   Bring that player in to compete in Spring Training.  Maybe even keep them on the active roster to begin the season.  TRY SOMETHING.  How they could not see Susac as at least competition for Alex Jackson is a mystery to me.  Maybe this kid outplays Jackson.  There were several players and pitchers available that I think could have been at least competitive for a roster spot on this team.  

Rule V is a low risk system that can potentially bring talent to your organization.  But it is just another that the front office seems to disdain, probably because they want the flexibility to find sub-500 OPS 30+ year old waiver wire pickups.

 

 

[nova_twins]

Teams are very good at protecting the right players at this point, why pick some random pitcher that isn't better than a bunch of existing minor league arms?

[LA Vikes Fan]

3 hours ago, amjgt said:

This ignores the fact that they obviously didn't want Susac. It's not like they picked him with the intent of keeping him and the Giants made them a sweetheart deal they couldn't refuse.

I'm sure this has been planned for several days. Twins didn't see anyone they liked enough to justify trying to keep them all season. The Giants liked Susac and probably called the teams near the top of the draft to work out a deal to take him. 

The Twins said, sure, we'll trade you the 4th pick, but it will cost you Caraballo.

Exactly. The Twins paid the $100,000 Rule 5 fee to get a guy the Giants just paid a $150,000 to sign. We keep Carabello until all of his rights are expired in about 8 years. The Giants keep Susac IF they keep him on the MLB roster for the entire 2026 season or they have to give him back. Seems like a good deal to me. 

[LyleCole]

14 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

Exactly. The Twins paid the $100,000 Rule 5 fee to get a guy the Giants just paid a $150,000 to sign. We keep Carabello until all of his rights are expired in about 8 years. The Giants keep Susac IF they keep him on the MLB roster for the entire 2026 season or they have to give him back. Seems like a good deal to me. 

But this "victory" has the net positive present value of about $72,000 in cash.   

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 minutes ago, LyleCole said:

But this "victory" has the net positive present value of about $72,000 in cash.   

It's not the cash that's the victory. It's the getting of a decent prospect by simply taking somebody that the Giants wanted and sending him over. The $72,500 is just gravy.    

[LyleCole]

1 minute ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

It's not the cash that's the victory. It's the getting of a decent prospect by simply taking somebody that the Giants wanted and sending him over. The $72,500 is just gravy.    

The EV of the player is essentially zero.  

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 minutes ago, LyleCole said:

The EV of the player is essentially zero.  

Hard to say. We'll know in about 5 years. Let's chat then, 

[twinstalker]

It seems like a good result to get a catcher for free, neither having to pay $150k the catcher signed for nor $100K, of course.

[Dman]

2 hours ago, LyleCole said:

You have to wonder what San Francisco knows that the Twins don't, or at least what they think they know.  They almost certainly know more about Caraballo than any other team and preferred bringing in Susac.  

Caraballo signed for a bonus of $172,000.   Even if the Twins paid the full $100k Rule V fee (they did apparently get back cash from Giants), they are in theory $72k ahead.  And they can develop this prospect over time rather than having to put Susac on the MLB roster the entire year.

I get the Twins probably got what they wanted in this trade.   They didn't really like anyone in the Rule V draft so they got an asset for their trouble.  

The problem with this approach is I think it is arrogant.  Their talent evaluation has resulted in a 40 man roster that includes Ryan Fitzgerald, Jhonny Pereda, Ryan Kreidler, Mickey Gasper, James Outman and that is after they did a major purge of other at best replacement level players .   

WHY NOT TAKE A CHANCE ON A RULE V PLAYER?   Bring that player in to compete in Spring Training.  Maybe even keep them on the active roster to begin the season.  TRY SOMETHING.  How they could not see Susac as at least competition for Alex Jackson is a mystery to me.  Maybe this kid outplays Jackson.  There were several players and pitchers available that I think could have been at least competitive for a roster spot on this team.  

Rule V is a low risk system that can potentially bring talent to your organization.  But it is just another that the front office seems to disdain, probably because they want the flexibility to find sub-500 OPS 30+ year old waiver wire pickups.

 

 

While they never report the amount of cash in these minor type trades I would bet you that the Giants had to at minimum cover the 100K fee for the pick.  I don't see the Twins willing to spend any money to buy a player that has significant bust potential just to help the Giants get Susak.  It wouldn't be worth it to a money conscious team like the Twins.  They would have just passed altogether if they had to pay anything.  

If I had to guess they got together with their international scouts. Picked out a few guys they liked and when the Giants said yes to someone they thought had potential it was a done deal or the Gioants offered several players and let the Twins pick the one they liked best.  It is interesting to me that they chose a catcher and not an arm, but maybe this is as much as SF was willing to offer?  Hard to say.  At any rate it's hard to fault them for getting something in return if they weren't going to pick a Rule V player at all.

I agree Posey see's something in Susac or they wouldn't have made absolutely sure they got him.  Still it is so hard to hit at the MLB level and his bat hasn't been super strong.  I assume they are counting on him playing solid defense and if his bat ever does hit then they got a steal.  If not they lose very little for taking a chance.

If Minnesota hadn't tied themselves to Jackson I would have been fine if they had picked Susac, but having two players that might be weak links at the catcher position that couldn't be moved on the 26 man didn't make sense.

I might be in the minority but am kind of glad they didn't get anybody in Rule V as those players are stuck on the 26 man and clog things up.  Would rather they have the flexibility to move the young arms they have up and down without worrying about a Rule V player.

I think the Twins did OK even if the catcher doesn't work out at least they tried and if they do somehow hit lotto jackpot then they will have made the team stronger.

[FlyingFinn]

3 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Early this morning I thought Rosario or fedko  might be taken either by the Royals who need outfielders  or st Louis Cardinals who are a rebuilding team

Every year people think the Twins will lose a hitter in the Rule 5 draft. The odds of that are like 1%. This year, there was a grand total of 1 position player taken, by the Twins and traded to the Giants.

[LyleCole]

2 hours ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

Hard to say. We'll know in about 5 years. Let's chat then, 

Not sure if you understand the concept of Expected Value then.  The probability of this player becoming a valuable MLB player is essentially 0.  

[Permanent Twins Fan]

7 hours ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Catching pipeline!

The lower minors catching for the Twins actually looks really good. There are a lot of names with some upside. Tait, Jiminez, Diaw, and Caraballo all have decent upside. The only problem is the Twins essentially have zero catchers outside of Ryan Jeffers above AA.

[amjgt]

3 minutes ago, LyleCole said:

Not sure if you understand the concept of Expected Value then.  The probability of this player becoming a valuable MLB player is essentially 0.  

This is such a silly attitude. How many current major leaguers, by your standard, shouldn’t have even been bothered with since they had an EV of “essentially 0” 

[LyleCole]

41 minutes ago, Dman said:

While they never report the amount of cash in these minor type trades I would bet you that the Giants had to at minimum cover the 100K fee for the pick.  I don't see the Twins willing to spend any money to buy a player that has significant bust potential just to help the Giants get Susak.  It wouldn't be worth it to a money conscious team like the Twins.  They would have just passed altogether if they had to pay anything.  

If I had to guess they got together with their international scouts. Picked out a few guys they liked and when the Giants said yes to someone they thought had potential it was a done deal or the Gioants offered several players and let the Twins pick the one they liked best.  It is interesting to me that they chose a catcher and not an arm, but maybe this is as much as SF was willing to offer?  Hard to say.  At any rate it's hard to fault them for getting something in return if they weren't going to pick a Rule V player at all.

I agree Posey see's something in Susac or they wouldn't have made absolutely sure they got him.  Still it is so hard to hit at the MLB level and his bat hasn't been super strong.  I assume they are counting on him playing solid defense and if his bat ever does hit then they got a steal.  If not they lose very little for taking a chance.

If Minnesota hadn't tied themselves to Jackson I would have been fine if they had picked Susac, but having two players that might be weak links at the catcher position that couldn't be moved on the 26 man didn't make sense.

I might be in the minority but am kind of glad they didn't get anybody in Rule V as those players are stuck on the 26 man and clog things up.  Would rather they have the flexibility to move the young arms they have up and down without worrying about a Rule V player.

I think the Twins did OK even if the catcher doesn't work out at least they tried and if they do somehow hit lotto jackpot then they will have made the team stronger.

You are not forced to keep a Rule V player on the 26 man roster.  If they you don't, they are returned to the original team and $50k of the Rule V fee is refunded.  

As for this specific player, I don't see the Twins "tied" to Jackson whatsoever.   While I get $1.8 million is a lot of the Twins, why HAND a player with such limited MLB performance the backup roster position?  If there is internal roster competition, why even bring Jackson in.  Just let those prospects compete in Spring Training.  Then either bring the best of the competition North, or go dumpster diving for a catcher similar to Alex Jackson.

While its fun to think of "lotto jackpot", as I stated above the Expected Value of a lottery ticket is zero.   Drafting and keeping Susac, a player who was a recent high draft pick and reasonable minor league statistics for the position (.785 overall OPS) with a .832 AAA OPS with 18 home runs (might be stadium elevated) has a much higher expected return.   

I feel the same with other Rule V available hitters (mentioned in some of the articles).  We do not exactly have a long line of eligible 1B prospects in the system.  So, again, for $50k at risk,  why not take one of them (I forgot the name of the guy I thought was a reasonable selection) and even play him 40-80 games in the regular season?  If he plays well, ok.  You got a good selection.  If not, return him and it cost the $50k.   None of those players that were suggested by TD were drafted.

But for a team like the Twins, the risk reward of a Rule V selection is significant.  

[ashbury]

What was your favorite Daniel Susac moment as a Twin?

I've thought about this for a while now, and I'd have to say it was that one time.