Twins Select Catcher in the Rule 5 Draft, Trade Him to the Giants

[LyleCole]

6 minutes ago, amjgt said:

This is such a silly attitude. How many current major leaguers, by your standard, shouldn’t have even been bothered with since they had an EV of “essentially 0” 

Instead, how about this.  You NAME a single low bonus international signing by the Twins that has been even moderately successful.   

If you look at the Twins drafts from 2000 - 2022 the Twins have drafted 76 catchers in the 16th through end of the draft.  The total number of games played from those 76 catchers:  0.  

In fact, if you look at the catchers the Twins have drafted in rounds 3 - 10 in that period, the Twins have drafted and signed 18 players.  Their success rate:  1/18.  Only 2 of those 18 ever had a plate appearance for the Twins:  Mitch Garver and Chris Herman.   Garver had 1070 plate appearances and a reasonable 7.3 WAR for the Twins.  Herman had 389 PAs for a WAR of -1.2.

I rest my case about the expected value of a 17 year old low international bonus signee.  

[fridleyphil]

7 hours ago, KnoblauchWasFramed said:

Not gonna lie - seems like a stupid trade.  He would have been on the 40 man roster, yes, but he also likely competes for the backup spot behind Jeffers and could have maybe been ready to contribute at the MLB level.  But now, instead, we have a teenage prospect who is years away from even AAA.  We already have two catching prospects that fit the exact same situation.

Should have kept Susac and given him a shot to make the team this season.  

I agree 100%

[Doc Lenz]

5 hours ago, h2oface said:

Posey wanted Susac. Thinks he is MLB ready and HITS! Falvey likes a 16 year old. One can help immediately. One probably never. Posey wanted Susac. Posey! He ought to know catchers. I’m betting on Susac and Posey. Falvey won’t even be around to see Cara…… whoever play AA ball, if he makes it that far. No need to remember his name. 

Posey back picked us.

[Fred]

Well, they found a way. Somebody said they should take Susac. I said there was no way, because Jackson is out of options, and there is no way the Twins can carry Jeffers, Jackson, and Susac on the 26 man. They only have have a 4 man bench, and there's no way they would carry 2 catchers on the bench unless one can play 1st. Just goes to show you what I know.

[Dman]

2 hours ago, LyleCole said:

You are not forced to keep a Rule V player on the 26 man roster.  If they you don't, they are returned to the original team and $50k of the Rule V fee is refunded.  

As for this specific player, I don't see the Twins "tied" to Jackson whatsoever.   While I get $1.8 million is a lot of the Twins, why HAND a player with such limited MLB performance the backup roster position?  If there is internal roster competition, why even bring Jackson in.  Just let those prospects compete in Spring Training.  Then either bring the best of the competition North, or go dumpster diving for a catcher similar to Alex Jackson.

While its fun to think of "lotto jackpot", as I stated above the Expected Value of a lottery ticket is zero.   Drafting and keeping Susac, a player who was a recent high draft pick and reasonable minor league statistics for the position (.785 overall OPS) with a .832 AAA OPS with 18 home runs (might be stadium elevated) has a much higher expected return.   

I feel the same with other Rule V available hitters (mentioned in some of the articles).  We do not exactly have a long line of eligible 1B prospects in the system.  So, again, for $50k at risk,  why not take one of them (I forgot the name of the guy I thought was a reasonable selection) and even play him 40-80 games in the regular season?  If he plays well, ok.  You got a good selection.  If not, return him and it cost the $50k.   None of those players that were suggested by TD were drafted.

But for a team like the Twins, the risk reward of a Rule V selection is significant.  

But when you make a Rule V pick he is stuck on the 26 man until at least the start of the season taking up a spot that could be used for another free agent signing or waiver claim.  If you return them then what was the point or advantage of taking them in the first place?  They simply kept another 40 man spot from opening for other talent. The odds of Rule V's working out is very low mainly because they have no MLB experience and it is tough to break in at that level.

I agree with you on doing a Jackson like signing later rather than sooner.  I guess maybe sometimes you have to decide to make a deal early or lose out?  Not sure why they wanted Jackson early or at all.  In my mind he sort of was their Rule V pick.

I also agree that Susac is a decent upside play, but with no ability to move him up and down he could end up a liability for the team if he can't perform at that level.  I don't know enough about his defense to know if that can carry him as it seems highly unlikely his offense will. Obviously the Giants felt there was competition for him or they wouldn't have traded with the Twins. Given what we experienced with Vasquez I'd say he could stick. We'll see how it turns out.

I don't disagree on bringing in competition for first base, but relying on bats from Rule V that would be inexperienced at the MLB level doesn't seem like a smart play.  I think this draft points that out as only one position player was taken (Susac).  It's just not something teams do as the odds of it working out are too low IMO.

[Doctor Wu]

Well, this was a head-spinning series of moves! I first read the news, thinking they would nab a pitcher, but when I saw that it was a catcher, I thought: that's cool, we need a backup catcher. Sure, we now have Jackson and/or Pereda to fill that role, but one more body can't hurt, especially if all this speculation about trading Jeffers actually happens. Okay, so now the pick is traded and we get yet another catcher, but only a teenager, one who is many years away from even possibly being a candidate for an MLB job. Weird trade, but reading all the details, I get it. But what happens now? Is Jeffers here is stay or still on the trading block? If he DOES get traded, but still need a legitimate starter to take his place, and I don't see the Twins going the free agent route to replace him, at least not for this coming season. 

[JADBP]

I am pretty sure that Buster Posey called up Falvey before the draft and said “Hey Buddy, you owe me one…how’s about you draft that Susac guy and flip him our way?  Pick some loser off our low A or lower.  We’ll cover the fees…. 
 

It’s just like the Louie Varland trade, which made absolutely zero sense (wish I could have used a number a lot lower than Zero there!).  But you are right…Falvey seems to have some perverse addiction to trades.  I can only guess it is his narcissistic side coming out.  It must make him FEEL powerful, smart, maybe even beloved,  

But in actuality, he’s being suckered by other teams to agree to these inane trades. Maybe he believes we’re gonna love him even more. I think he needs to double check the “Do you approve of the job Falvey is doing ….” polls here on TD!!!

[nclahammer]

If I'm reading the tea leaves correctly, drafting Susac and immediately trading him means that the Twins are putting their chips in on Ryan Jeffers as their starting catcher and will sign him to an extension.

[TwinsDr2021]

I am shocked I say shocked that no Twins prospects were selected. There was so much hang wringing from fans that the would lose the likes of Lewis, Culpepper, Fedko, Rosario or others. I guess prospects with huge red flags (age, injuries, control, terrible defense for examples) really aren't that coveted.

I am not a fan of this front office, but if you can get some sucker I mean other team to give up a lottery ticket prospect for a rule 5 draft pick that is win in my opinion. 

[amjgt]

9 hours ago, LyleCole said:

Instead, how about this.  You NAME a single low bonus international signing by the Twins that has been even moderately successful. 

 

Luis Arraez

[Jeff K]

15 hours ago, DocBauer said:

So we get another young catcher to develop for the future. I don't have a problem with that. I'm just really surprised there wasn't a AA...maybe recent AAA promotion...arm that threw hard but was missing a 3rd pitch or had some control issues that didn't look like a draft and stash for the pen.

Question is now what?

Trade Larnach in a package for someone's young 4th or 5th pen arm with potential?

Sign 2 decent, solid pen arms to actual ML deals?

A 1B of decent quality? Lowe maybe?

That might just about do it...not inuding the usual MILB signings...unless there's a couple $M somehow left over for a reserve INF or 3rd FA pen arm?

I really want the Twins to move Larnach.  I don't dislike Larnach and he is relatively solid.  But I want the Twins to give our young outfielders a true chance.

[amjgt]

5 minutes ago, amjgt said:

Luis Arraez

And future hall of famer Salvador Perez if you want a recent non-Twins catcher example.

[MGX]

How are people critical of this trade??? The Twins weren't going to use this pick at all & now they have an additional prospect in their system & probably just as important there is no impact on either 40 or 26 man rosters. It doesn't matter what anyone thinks of his future value, we'd have zero value without this trade.

[jorgenswest]

10 hours ago, LyleCole said:

Instead, how about this.  You NAME a single low bonus international signing by the Twins that has been even moderately successful.

Catcher Wilson Ramos at 16 for 27,000. For context top bonuses at the time were over 2 million. Top catcher that class was Jesus Montero who signed for 1.65 million.

[Elliot]

The siver lining in this is that it may signal no planned move with Ryan Jeffers. Keeping Susac may have indicated the likelihood of a trade.  I prefer the potential of this 17 yr old with no roster restrictions to  adding another into the backup catcher battle; one who had to remain on the 26 man roster all year.

I fully expected them to draft a potential BP arm.  The perfect year to be able to stash an unproven arm in the pen, since that is essentially what the BP will probably consist of this year.  We will never know, but I wonder if they would have pulled the trigger on any of the 3 pitchers that went with picks 1-3.

 

[Danchat]

1 hour ago, amjgt said:

Luis Arraez

He's the only "hit" after the Polanco/Sano/Kepler crop. They need to start hitting on more, hopefully Rodriguez will be the start of that.

[DJL44]

12 hours ago, Dman said:

I don't see the Twins willing to spend any money to buy a player that has significant bust potential

All players have significant bust potential. First round draft picks bust all the time. Anyone picked past the 3rd round is more likely to bust than to contribute in the big leagues.

[Dman]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

All players have significant bust potential. First round draft picks bust all the time. Anyone picked past the 3rd round is more likely to bust than to contribute in the big leagues.

Yeah but those players aren't on the 40 man.

[DJL44]

9 minutes ago, Dman said:

Yeah but those players aren't on the 40 man.

They have several busts on the current 40 man roster 

[amjgt]

57 minutes ago, MGX said:

How are people critical of this trade??? The Twins weren't going to use this pick at all & now they have an additional prospect in their system & probably just as important there is no impact on either 40 or 26 man rosters. It doesn't matter what anyone thinks of his future value, we'd have zero value without this trade.

Seems to me that's its leftover angst from the Jackson trade, because as has been stated, it would be extremely difficult (and non-productive) to basically lock ourselves into 3 catchers on the 26-man roster.

To me, the Twins seem to have been extremely purposeful over the last 6 months with the Catcher position. You can argue how we got to the point we were at 6 months ago, and people have disagreed with individual moves since then, but they definitely seem to have a plan and are enacting that plan. Now we just need the plan to be successful. 

[Dman]

4 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

They have several busts on the current 40 man roster 

Don't completely disagree, but some of those should fall out as they grab more free agents.

[saviking]

I hope we lose Out Man .. 

[Mike Sixel]

Ya, I don't see how people are critical of this. They got a prospect for 100K. How is that bad?

[Mike Sixel]

From Fangraphs:

The Athletics’ first rounder out of Arizona back in 2022, Susac was seen as a high-floor selection at the time due to his ability to catch. He has good hands, reportedly works well with the staff, and should be at least an average defensive catcher. The bat hasn’t come along at all, though. Despite decent surface level stats, Susac is overly aggressive, and his slow bat and surround-the-ball swing are unlikely to translate well against elite arms. He projects as a backup or third catcher depending on how much you like the defense. Might a family connection have played a role? Susac is the younger brother of Andrew Susac, who was Giants GM Buster Posey’s backup at one point. — BG

Bonus Trade Report: Caraballo, 17, is a physical switch-hitting catcher with power and on base skills. He is not a very good defender yet. — EL

[gil4]

On 12/10/2025 at 1:38 PM, SaberNerd said:

You aren't allowed to trade draft picks, but you can immediately trade the player after picking. It's pretty common in the Rule 5

I only half pay attention to Rule 5, so I only remember one previous time the Twins did it.  They gave away the top pick in the draft, up-and-coming star Jared Camp, to the Marlins for the #2 pick, for some guy who probably never amounted to anything, Johan Somethingorother.  And cash. At least they got the cash.

[David HK]

On 12/11/2025 at 3:48 AM, old nurse said:

Garrett Spain. In the second round of the MiLB draft. I guess they figure on losing Outman when they DFA him. Yup, a poor hitting LH outfielder that has played all 3 spots.

Gee, we don't have nearly enough of those... 🙄