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Posted
Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

Trevor Larnach's development as a major-leaguer was slow and full of setbacks, but what made one feel confident was the steady trend of improvement. He debuted with a meager .672 OPS in 2021, then improved to .712 in 2022 and .727 in 2023. Even by this point, at age 26, the production remained unspectacular, but there were a lot of intriguing aspects in his underlying metrics and trajectory.

Sure enough, the pieces came together in a breakout 2024 season for Larnach. He slashed .259/.338/.434 for a .771 OPS that was 16% better than league average. He became a fixture near the top of Rocco Baldelli's lineups against righties, and Larnach taking another step forward in 2025 was integral to the Twins' vision for an all-around offensive rebound. 

Larnach came out of the gates this year as regular cleanup hitter. And he just never really got going. There were modest bursts of production from time to time but Larnach couldn't find a rhythm, slumping to the finish line and finishing with a regressive .727 OPS. Like Matt Wallner, Larnach was heavily suppressed when pitchers buckled down in run-scoring opportunities, and he offered even less value than Wallner in the field (leading to almost three-quarters of his starts coming at designated hitter).

It all amounted to roughly replacement-level production in 142 games. Larnach was one of the biggest drags on Minnesota's dormant offense. He plays at a position of abundance, and he's in line to get a decent raise via arbitration — so naturally there is talk about moving on. I think that would be a mistake. But let's take a look at what needs to do to rejuvenate this career if he remains in the team's plans.

 

Limitations to Overcome
Larnach has two primary things working against his value as a player, and neither one seems likely to change for the better at this point. First, he can't hit lefties. He just can't. The Twins greatly increased his opportunities against southpaws in 2025, hoping he might come to at least hold his own in same-sided matchups –– but he posted a .608 OPS, in line with his .585 career mark. Second, there is the total lack of defensive value. He's slow and unlike Wallner he doesn't have much of an arm. 

Both of these factors were hindrances in a campaign that saw Larnach finish with 0.2 fWAR, but they don't preclude him from being a valuable contributor at the major-league level. I will grant that Larnach's persistent inability to fully unlock his potential makes a solid case against keeping him around, but if he can lock back into what he does well, Twins fans will quickly come to remember what he can offer.

Seeing Red Again
The 2024 season, especially the final stretch, was a rough one for many Minnesota hitters. Not Larnach, though. He enjoyed a career year, and actually finished strong while the rest of the team tanked, posting an .804 OPS in August and September. I look at Larnach's Statcast profile from that season and I see all of the qualities that made him a first-round draft pick and a highly regarded young bat: the outfielder did everything well at the plate with the exception of swinging and missing (where he improved dramatically from the previous year). 

 

He faded across pretty much every facet in 2025, for whatever reason. Maybe his skills are already dulling as he approaches 30. Maybe there were health issues quietly being managed. Maybe it was plain and simply a bad year, and one he can put behind him in pursuit of an eventual free-agent payday. 

It all comes down to Larnach maximizing his theoretical main strength: mashing right-handed pitchers. That was a persistent struggle this year for the Twins, who slashed just .237/.308/.400 against righties. Larnach's .758 OPS vs. RHP wasn't good enough, but also it's a solidly above-average baseline and he packs more explosive upside than a lot of other players crowding the corner-outfield mix. 

 

Enough Rebound Potential to Stay Relevant?
Larnach is in a tough spot. Turning 29 this winter, he no longer offers youthful projection in the same sense as Alan Roden, whose acquisition at the last deadline puts Larnach in the expendability crosshairs. He also doesn't have the proven track record of high-end production of Wallner; at his best Larnach hasn't been able to level up from good to great.

Still, as we all know, baseball development is nonlinear and late bloomers are all around us. Larnach has shown the traits of a very good hitter, and the Twins clearly recognized that. Projected to make $4.7 million in arbitration, he's feeling the crunch as Wallner, Roden, Austin Martin, Emmanuel Rodriguez and maybe even Walker Jenkins all contend for playing time in the outfield corners or DH.

Is the upside the flashed in 2024 still within Larnach? Was it even good enough to be worth betting on? We'll find out soon enough how the Twins feel.

Explore previous entries in the "Road to a Rebound" series: Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner


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Posted

Have liked Larnach since he arrived.  Like most, continue to be disappointed with his play.  With so many impressive corner outfielders close, have to believe the Twins plans include moving on from both Larnach and Wallner.  Only question is when and what they get in return, if anything.

Posted

I'm going to put my helmet on and get in there again. 

Trevor increased from 23 PA's against left handers to 118. Thank God they finally let this happen.

However...

His overall stats were going to come down when lefties got introduced to the equation. It happens when you introduce 100 extra PA's of something into what was 567 total.

There will be a cause and effect with that kind of percentage jump. This is something that should have happened two years ago. 

If his .608 in 2025 against left handers is in line with his career .585 OPS.

Surely his .759 OPS in 2025 is in line with his .784 in 2024. Or in line with his .759 career OPS. 

My hope is that the team continues to add left handed hitters in order to focus on gaining a platoon advantage 75% of the time.

My hope is that the team stops announcing to the world that they are looking for right handed hitting and then signing right handed hitting for the sole purpose of facing left handers in order to avoid a platoon disadvantage 25% of the time. 

My hope is that the Twins stop compromising the development of young left handed hitters likke Jenkins, Rodon and Erod like they compromised the development of Trevor, Matt, Alex and Julien.

I also hope that they just stop overweighting the 25% at the expense of the 75%. 

I also hope that fans would realize that they should probably stop looking at the 25% and I'd like the fan to realize that the Twins did this and fans sure like to see those immediate results. 

His Stats were going to come down when they finally got around to correcting this mistake two years later.  

 

 

Posted

It's a big hurdle to overcome the past hitting philosophy; Larnach has progressed but is well short of his potential. We can't afford his services anymore, especially when Falvey loves to hoard players like him. His trade value was very high, much earlier we could have traded him for someone very significant. There is still a demand for him, so we should trade him for a backup catcher. 

Posted

Pretty simple. Go back to being a strictly platoon bat. Last year, Larnach was a full time player who had 118 plate appearances against lefties where he put up an OPS of .608 or wRC+ 71. Larnach put up a wRC+ 110 vs. righties in 2025. Good enough to be in the margin of error. It's clear he made some adjustments to his plate approach or swing as he flipped his fastball vs. changeup performance on its head. 

In 2024, like previous seasons, Larnach was strongly shielded from lefties with only 23 plate appearances.

As far as a rebound, Larnach has basically been replacement level across his entire career save for a career year last year where he still wasn't really worth a full time position because must be platooned to be effective and he hasn't been able to handle a defensive position.

 

Posted

It's interesting all the dump on Larnach talk.  I guess it's understandable and warranted.  IMO hes another prime example of Twins young players becoming stagnant, and/or outright regressing.  Something is wrong here with the lineup of young players in Larnachs spot.  Are the Twins terrible at scouting? Drafting? Developing? Managing? All of the above?  That in part is why it is hard to get too excited about the new wave of can't miss prospects like Jenkins and others.

Posted

Here's the thing: for Larnach to have a rebound season, you have to buy that 2024 is his real level as a hitter. There's a real possibility that 2024 was his peak instead.

Larnach has most been protected against LHP...because he's quite bad at hitting it. Career OPS of .585 is brutal. Did he improve last season while facing more LHP? Sure, but it was marginal (.608 OPS is still putrid). And while he hits RHP, he doesn't really mash them. Even in his best season as a pro, he only put up a .784 OPS against RHP. That's not bad, but it's also not good for a guy who adds nothing defensively any longer, nothing on the bases, and is unplayable against LHP.

Larnach is a primary DH platoon hitter, and he's getting more expensive than his bat is worth, while also blocking younger players with more upside. At 29 he might hit better than he did last season, but the ceiling isn't high.

Considering the exceptionally low payroll the Cheap Pohlads are likely to impose, is $4M+ on Larnach the best use of funds? I think I'd rather free the team up to play Wallner more at DH (a much better masher of RHP) and see what we have with Roden/Rodriguez/Jenkins/Fedko/Gonzalez, FIVE players who have hit in AAA and who all play much better OF than Larnach.

Keeping Larnach at this point is just raising the floor and limiting the ceiling. The team is unlikely to be going anywhere next season unless multiple young(er) players have a breakthrough; keeping Larnach at this point pretty much ensures that fewer of them will even get an opportunity, and for what? An upside of ok performance against RHP from a platoon DH?

Posted

DFA him already.  He is basically a platoon DH.  He can hit righties but as pointed out he cannot hit lefties. Who knows what a new manager will bring, but when you offer just a slightly above average bat against right handed pitching, no defense and instant outs against lefties, you offer little value to any team. 

I wish he could provide more value, but we have too many guys knocking on the door at AAA to fill at worst a similar spot. 

Posted
1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

His Stats were going to come down when they finally got around to correcting this mistake two years later.  

Based on the numbers, the mistake was letting him hit every day instead of keeping him in a strict platoon role.

Posted
48 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

IMO hes another prime example of Twins young players becoming stagnant, and/or outright regressing.  Something is wrong here with the lineup of young players in Larnachs spot.  Are the Twins terrible at scouting? Drafting? Developing? Managing? All of the above?  That in part is why it is hard to get too excited about the new wave of can't miss prospects like Jenkins and others.

Another way of putting "stagnating or outright regressing" is "fulfilling their potential as a hitter". Aaron Judge has pretty much 'stagnated' as a hitter - he's not getting any better. It's just that his potential is a lot higher than Trevor Larnach.

Posted
48 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Here's the thing: for Larnach to have a rebound season, you have to buy that 2024 is his real level as a hitter. There's a real possibility that 2024 was his peak instead.

Larnach has most been protected against LHP...because he's quite bad at hitting it. Career OPS of .585 is brutal. Did he improve last season while facing more LHP? Sure, but it was marginal (.608 OPS is still putrid). And while he hits RHP, he doesn't really mash them. Even in his best season as a pro, he only put up a .784 OPS against RHP. That's not bad, but it's also not good for a guy who adds nothing defensively any longer, nothing on the bases, and is unplayable against LHP.

Larnach is a primary DH platoon hitter, and he's getting more expensive than his bat is worth, while also blocking younger players with more upside. At 29 he might hit better than he did last season, but the ceiling isn't high.

Considering the exceptionally low payroll the Cheap Pohlads are likely to impose, is $4M+ on Larnach the best use of funds? I think I'd rather free the team up to play Wallner more at DH (a much better masher of RHP) and see what we have with Roden/Rodriguez/Jenkins/Fedko/Gonzalez, FIVE players who have hit in AAA and who all play much better OF than Larnach.

Keeping Larnach at this point is just raising the floor and limiting the ceiling. The team is unlikely to be going anywhere next season unless multiple young(er) players have a breakthrough; keeping Larnach at this point pretty much ensures that fewer of them will even get an opportunity, and for what? An upside of ok performance against RHP from a platoon DH?

100% agree.  As you said, he is a mediocre to decent platoon DH.  Those at bats are better utilized finding out about our youngsters.  The Twins are not going to be world beaters next year.  let's find out what we have.

Posted

It's not productive to talk about platooning him or matchups for 2026 when he's too rich for the Twins' taste anyway. In this situation, I'm in favor of 'saving money'. ✂️ 

Posted

There is a lot of “irrational exuberance” about the OF prospects that we have coming up.  (If you’re old enough, you’ll know what that’s from). The odds of at least half of them never living up to their potential (ala Larnach) are pretty strong.  Opening up one spot in the OF to see what you have with them is likely a good idea.  However, opening up more than that seems like making a living playing the lottery.   

That being said, I do think that trading (if possible) Trevor Larnach is a good idea.  His best year stacks up as being equal to Wallner’s worst year, and he’s getting more expensive.  He may go on to do well somewhere else.  Oh well.  It happens.  It’s not a crime.  

Posted
2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I'm going to put my helmet on and get in there again. 

Trevor increased from 23 PA's against left handers to 118. Thank God they finally let this happen.

However...

His overall stats were going to come down when lefties got introduced to the equation. It happens when you introduce 100 extra PA's of something into what was 567 total.

There will be a cause and effect with that kind of percentage jump. This is something that should have happened two years ago. 

If his .608 in 2025 against left handers is in line with his career .585 OPS.

Surely his .759 OPS in 2025 is in line with his .784 in 2024. Or in line with his .759 career OPS. 

My hope is that the team continues to add left handed hitters in order to focus on gaining a platoon advantage 75% of the time.

My hope is that the team stops announcing to the world that they are looking for right handed hitting and then signing right handed hitting for the sole purpose of facing left handers in order to avoid a platoon disadvantage 25% of the time. 

My hope is that the Twins stop compromising the development of young left handed hitters likke Jenkins, Rodon and Erod like they compromised the development of Trevor, Matt, Alex and Julien.

I also hope that they just stop overweighting the 25% at the expense of the 75%. 

I also hope that fans would realize that they should probably stop looking at the 25% and I'd like the fan to realize that the Twins did this and fans sure like to see those immediate results. 

His Stats were going to come down when they finally got around to correcting this mistake two years later.  

 

 

Pretty sure most/many here get the 75%/25% split in RH v. LH pitching.

There’s just uninformed guess work in the thinking that if Larnach saw more in game left handed pitching, he’d be much closer to serviceable in that situation. There’s “baseball people” around Larnach - Wallner, etc. that see the struggles v. LH pitching 8 months of the year - year after year, behind the scenes.

That said, letting a 29 year old guy go, that has a career OPS near .770 v. RH pitching, (75% of our foes) because $4.5M is too much to spend is nuts. At least sign him until Rodriguez shows he can be healthy for more than 45 days in a row - Roden shows he can hit consistently - Jenkins appears to be comfortable enough to move to MLB - Wallner shows he can hit .230 and actually collect some RBI. Can always trade a productive hitter mid-season if youth has shown out at AAA.

To me, Larnach is insurance to being at a “competitive level” offensively until it’s deemed others around him aren’t keeping Team competitive….. then move whoever makes sense to move.

Somebody mentioned yesterday Roden has hit .320 at AAA ……… Kiersey hit .300 in ‘24 at AAA and is 20 for 184 over his AB’s at the MLB level. My point with Larnach is he’s “the devil we know!”

Posted
1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Based on the numbers, the mistake was letting him hit every day instead of keeping him in a strict platoon role.

His vs left numbers indeed suggest platoon but that isn't the mistake. 

1. There are at most 4 platoon spots available to 13 hitters on a typical roster. 

2. In order to platoon to protect every left handed hitter from the platoon you have to limit the number of left handed hitters on your roster. 

3. Left handed hitter vs Right Handed pitching is also a platoon advantage that is now limited by the limiting of left handed hitters on your roster. 

4, This forces you to sign lefty pitching specialists. In other words... Right handed hitters who can't hit right handed pitching. 

5. When injuries occur and injuries will occur those right handed specialists will now have to face right handed pitching and any platoon advantage you gain against 25% of the pitching is erased by the right handed hitter hitting right handed pitching 75% of the time because you've gone out of your way to add right handed bats to a team that already has 9 of them.  

6. By ignoring the 25%... It allows you to focus on the 75% advantage. Adding more left handed hitters than you can platoon and now you are playing the platoon advantage correctly. Do the math... Plug the numbers in. Just take the LHH vs RHP baseball average and apply 72% to it and then take the LHH vs LHP and apply 28% to it. Then do the same with RHH vs RHP and apply 72% to it and then take RHH average vs LHP and apply 28% to it and add them both up. You will see that in order to play the platoon split correctly. You need more left handed hitters in your lineup than right handed hitters.  

7. With the first 6 points under full consideration. I'd rather the team just look for hitters period instead of bringing in specialists that just rob development from your left handed hitters.  

Which leads to something more important still. The actual mistake. 

8. Young left handed hitters are still developing. Young Right handed hitters or switchers are still developing. What they are is yet to come.

Some may feel differently but I don't expect Brooks Lee to remain a .636 career OPS. I expect Brooks to take his experiences vs Right and left and get better. Taking away the opportunity to face left handed pitching for two years in their early development is pre-determining the outcome. Trevor may never be left handed pitching capable... I don't know... you don't know... the front office doesn't know but the front office left no doubt but not allowing it in the first place. A left handed hitter doesn't have to OPS .800 plus to be worth it. They can OPS .650 and still be worth it. Simply closing the door on them isn't development it's using spare parts and eventually throwing it away. This attitude toward development has led to the situation we are in... not just with Larnach but with the entire squad... over veterened with no trade value, no money left to spend and very little trade value from young players that typically produce the most trade value. And of course... I believe it has been a major factor in the hitting of the wall and the eventual selling at the deadline that we just experienced.   

9. When you were a child... you learned the most from birth to age 5. If you want them to learn French... this is when you teach it... birth to age 5. This is when they are becoming who they will become. Go ahead and take something away from a 1 year old and see what happens to them when they reach free agency at age 6. Rob them from social interaction... Keep them in a closet. See what happens when they hit Kindergarten. 

10. Go ahead and typecast your young players and see if you can get anything for them in the trade market. 

If the argument is that the Twins broke him so let's throw him away. I'd be more inclined to accept the discussion. As of right now... This Roster as it stands. Trevor is one of 5 players who are professional hitters on this club. We are standing here looking at Brooks Lee with a 2025 .655 OPS as our everyday shortstop and Twinsdaily is continually overweighting Trevor's .604 against 1 out of 4 pitchers.   

 

Posted
11 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Pretty sure most/many here get the 75%/25% split in RH v. LH pitching.

There’s just uninformed guess work in the thinking that if Larnach saw more in game left handed pitching, he’d be much closer to serviceable in that situation. There’s “baseball people” around Larnach - Wallner, etc. that see the struggles v. LH pitching 8 months of the year - year after year, behind the scenes.

That said, letting a 29 year old guy go, that has a career OPS near .770 v. RH pitching, (75% of our foes) because $4.5M is too much to spend is nuts. At least sign him until Rodriguez shows he can be healthy for more than 45 days in a row - Roden shows he can hit consistently - Jenkins appears to be comfortable enough to move to MLB - Wallner shows he can hit .230 and actually collect some RBI. Can always trade a productive hitter mid-season if youth has shown out at AAA.

To me, Larnach is insurance to being at a “competitive level” offensively until it’s deemed others around him aren’t keeping Team competitive….. then move whoever makes sense to move.

Somebody mentioned yesterday Roden has hit .320 at AAA ……… Kiersey hit .300 in ‘24 at AAA and is 20 for 184 over his AB’s at the MLB level. My point with Larnach is he’s “the devil we know!”

Excellent post and I wish other could see what you see. I'm all for youth in large numbers rising up through the system but they still have to be better than Larnach before they take their job. I'd rather keep Larnach because he is one of the few who have actually shown something and still make him compete against the army of corner outfielders coming behind him. I want the players to make the decision through performance. If Erod beats Larnach. Erod beats Larnach but you'll never get to that point when you are choosing one over the other in an all or nothing decision.   

It is uninformed guess work that Larnach would be better against lefties today if allowed to face them yesterday. I fully recognize this. 

My only argument with your post is the "Baseball People" part. Yes... there are baseball people... they are more informed and better at it than you and I are.

These baseball people from all 30 clubs get it wrong to the downside frequently. I'd rather the developing player be allowed to show it and work toward it.

I'd rather they not be just dipped into cement.  

Posted
23 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Trevor may never be left handed pitching capable... I don't know... you don't know... the front office doesn't know but the front office left no doubt but not allowing it in the first place. A left handed hitter doesn't have to OPS .800 plus to be worth it. They can OPS .650 and still be worth it.

If they play bad defense, they really can't OPS .650 and still be worth it. That's a bad DH. If they field like Max Kepler, then they can play everyday.

The front office should know a LOT more about these guys than I do. They see them hit in practice every day, during spring training and in the cages. If Larnach can't hit lefties in practice, he's not going to magically be able to hit them in game situations.

Posted

Larnach ‘24 & ‘25:

.250 BA & .258 BA

15 HR & 17 HR

350 AB’s & 503 AB’s

AB v. LH pitching (‘24?) & ‘25 more! - 118 total

OPS .771 & .727

If Larnach didn’t have his “role expanded” in ‘25 to hit v. LH pitching more ………. reduce those AB’s from 118 down to 38 v. LHP…….. his OPS goes back up toward 2024 levels and everyone wants to sign him!

Wallner hit .177 with RISP in ‘25. He struck out (114 times) as often as he got a hit or walked (114 times total) How many guys has he thrown out with his big arm over the past 2 seasons, when he wasn’t at AAA “finding his stroke” or on the IL? When you routinely waste a bunch of time surveying the field before throwing, you lose your throwing advantage. I don’t hate Wallner ……. just don’t see much, if any difference between the two in the OF. Wallner hit .202, had 22 HR with 40 total RBI & struck out 34% of the time…..not exactly stellar!

Larnach at DH v. RH pitching and as a PH should get him 475-500 AB’s …… with that scenario, he’s a .770 OPS guy with 20 HR potential while playing 75-80% of the time. He can be the 6th OF as regular DH and won’t block anyone’s development! To me, worth $4.5M.

Posted
8 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

If they play bad defense, they really can't OPS .650 and still be worth it. That's a bad DH. If they field like Max Kepler, then they can play everyday.

The front office should know a LOT more about these guys than I do. They see them hit in practice every day, during spring training and in the cages.

And they still get it wrong. We can down the list on players they got it wrong with. It's extensive. Assessment is hard when you dealing with a large pile of players that are seperated by inches. I don't blame them for being wrong. I want them to understand that they are wrong frequently... I want them to staff the 26 and 40 man rosters using all the predictive powers they have and once they set the rosters... I want them to get out of the way and let the players show them.    

Defense... I like Defense... I'm a fan. A catch that others wouldn't make are outs they shouldn't have gotten and that turns 3 outs to 2 and this greatly decreases the chances of putting up a crooked number. A catch that wasn't made that others would have made is going from 3 outs to 4 outs in an inning and that greatly increases the odds of a crooked number. I get the value of defense but there is more to the game than these separating OF events that occur once every two and half games... if that.  

In the meantime... someone still has to out perform Trevor at the plate and we don't have those players on the current roster yet and the DH spot is still an option... if his defense is just to scary.   

Posted

The general tenor of comment seems to be that Larnach would be easy to replace. Maybe so, but with whom? Believe it or not he was third on the team in RBI (with a measly 60), the most of his career. (The player second was another that commenters like to dump on, Brooks Lee.) What Twins minor leaguer can anyone say with confidence will drive in 60 or more next season? The only honest answer is NONE. 

Posted
22 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Excellent post and I wish other could see what you see. 

It is uninformed guess work that Larnach would be better against lefties today if allowed to face them yesterday. I fully recognize this. 

My only argument with your post is the "Baseball People" part. Yes... there are baseball people... they are more informed and better at it than you and I are.

These baseball people from all 30 clubs get it wrong to the downside frequently. I'd rather the developing player be allowed to show it and work toward it.

I'd rather they not be just dipped into cement.  

Agreed, it’s not “everyone’s the same”!

I did see a great post here a couple years ago - don’t know how to access? Basically, it showed about Top 15 Twin’s LH hitters of all-time. The data was pretty definitive! There was maybe 2 guys (Carew & ?) at .800 OPS or better v. LH pitching but there were only maybe another 2-3 over .700 OPS v. LH pitching (I believe Kubel was pretty solid?). Oliva was like .670 or so, from memory (for sure, lower than I expected). Hrbek was under .700 as well, I believe?

What the premise was on this v. Right on Right is that the LH hitters saw Way More RH pitching growing up and then into Pro Ball so, they just don’t fare as well against LH pitching, due to “lifelong” lack of familiarity. Bunch of supporting stats were shown - very good piece but no idea how to access or find it - it made common sense!

RH hitters grew up facing way more RH pitchers so they are immersed in that scenario from the start - not as much of a difference as we see (everyone, not just the Twins) with Left on Left.

Baseball people, apparently see this difference as something that can’t be fixed in 2-3-4 years (seldomly) at Pro Level ……. after 14-16 years of habit building.

 

Posted
2 hours ago, old nurse said:

Larnach needs to talk to Rooker. 

About what?  "So, Brent, what's it like hitting from the other side of the plate?"

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