Road to a Rebound: Trevor Larnach

[Riverbrian]

2 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

Fair enough.  That's not unreasonable.  But in that case, the Twins should've let that other team take him.  He's not young enough to expect future development and not good enough to help a team be competitive

My opinion... which is going to meet resistance because it offers some support for Outman and people will have none of that sort of thing. 

My opinion... The Dodgers spit out higher quality garbage. You have to consider the context of the team that isn't providing him playing time. The Dodgers have a lot of talented context. 

Outman's debut with the club is going to be delayed because they have an expensive roster full of talent every year that won't yield opportunity. Outman got his debut at 25 and he went on that extended run and got the playing time. 

His next season... the Dodgers were counting on him and he struggled... bouncing back and forth for 156 AB's. These would be short little bursts of attempts to see if he could do it.  

Last year would have been his third season with LA and he only got 44 AB's with them and they were not good but there wasn't a lot of them and of course not because the Dodgers are stacked. The Dodgers had a lot of different choices but they were still trying to translate that AAA performance to the major league in case it worked. 

In both of those down years... His AAA stats in Oklahoma City were really really good. Power Speed Defense.

The Twins want to give it a shot. OK... Fix him. I don't worry about age. I worry about 300 AB's committed to a .147 batting average in the attempt to fix him with Jenkins, Erod and others sitting in St. Paul watching him.  

I worry about releasing the subject of this thread just to give 300 AB's to a .147 batting average. 

[old nurse]

5 hours ago, ashbury said:

About what?  "So, Brent, what's it like hitting from the other side of the plate?"

What the Athletics said or did that unlocked his potential  i don’t think anyone has a hitting coach for each side of the plate, though  it may be lefthanders have a whole different thought process 

[The Great Hambino]

58 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I worry about 300 AB's committed to a .147 batting average in the attempt to fix him with Jenkins, Erod and others sitting in St. Paul watching him.  

I worry about releasing the subject of this thread just to give 300 AB's to a .147 batting average. 

I agree.  And you don't have to worry about those things if you don't acquire him in the first place.  I mean what's more likely: the Twins unlock something that the Dodgers couldn't (he was absolutely putrid over the course of a year and a half, even if it wasn't a huge amount of at bats), or those fears you listed become realized.

[bean5302]

I'd be surprised if the Twins non-tendered Larnach, to be honest. At $4.7MM estimated, he's still pretty dang cheap. A heck of a lot less expensive than a guy like Rhys Hoskins if Larnach can play 1B or still cheap enough to be a 1 WAR DH.

The reasonably priced offseason free agent options just look pretty weak.

[jmlease1]

14 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

My opinion... which is going to meet resistance because it offers some support for Outman and people will have none of that sort of thing. 

My opinion... The Dodgers spit out higher quality garbage. You have to consider the context of the team that isn't providing him playing time. The Dodgers have a lot of talented context. 

Outman's debut with the club is going to be delayed because they have an expensive roster full of talent every year that won't yield opportunity. Outman got his debut at 25 and he went on that extended run and got the playing time. 

His next season... the Dodgers were counting on him and he struggled... bouncing back and forth for 156 AB's. These would be short little bursts of attempts to see if he could do it.  

Last year would have been his third season with LA and he only got 44 AB's with them and they were not good but there wasn't a lot of them and of course not because the Dodgers are stacked. The Dodgers had a lot of different choices but they were still trying to translate that AAA performance to the major league in case it worked. 

In both of those down years... His AAA stats in Oklahoma City were really really good. Power Speed Defense.

The Twins want to give it a shot. OK... Fix him. I don't worry about age. I worry about 300 AB's committed to a .147 batting average in the attempt to fix him with Jenkins, Erod and others sitting in St. Paul watching him.  

I worry about releasing the subject of this thread just to give 300 AB's to a .147 batting average. 

The fear that the organization will keep Outman is not a great reason for keeping Larnach. Larnach is definitely better than Outman at this point, a much better and more consistent hitter. Whatever else Outman offers (much better defense, potential speed on the bases) doesn't make up for it because he appears to be completely lost as a hitter.

While I disagreed with the trade at the time, and still think it was a mistake even with Stewart getting injured almost immediately, taking a shot on fixing Outman in the second half of a lost season isn't in and of itself a crazy idea; the guy was 3rd in Rookie of the Year in 2023, so you never know. But he was awful in 2024 and worse in 2025. At his age and with these results, he looks like a Quad-A player.

I'd keep Larnach over Outman for sure. But with our self-imposed payroll limitations from crappy ownership, I'd move on from Larnach too. Outman should be a candidate for a minor league deal after being cut, and keeping him to justify a trade is more sunk cost fallacy from this front office and another reason to move on from them.

[NYCTK]

2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

I'd keep Larnach over Outman for sure.

Interesting question. (Un?)fortunately it's not an either or question and the Twins can easily keep both on the roster, at least through expanded rosters in Spring Training. I think I'd probably take Outman for the reason I think they traded for him, a very good defensive OF to act as the Buxton insurance (at least in the first half before either Jenkins or Rodriguez should be expected to be called upon).

Outman means there's no need to bring in someone like Margot or Bader. Not that he's better, just that he's already there. 

[jmlease1]

11 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Interesting question. (Un?)fortunately it's not an either or question and the Twins can easily keep both on the roster, at least through expanded rosters in Spring Training. I think I'd probably take Outman for the reason I think they traded for him, a very good defensive OF to act as the Buxton insurance (at least in the first half before either Jenkins or Rodriguez should be expected to be called upon).

Outman means there's no need to bring in someone like Margot or Bader. Not that he's better, just that he's already there. 

With Roden on the roster and Jenkins and Rodriguez in AAA (or maybe in MLB) you don't really need to bring in a Margot or Bader to cover CF, do you? (not that bringing in Bader was a bad decision; he worked out quite nicely, and arguably had the best season of his career)

And keeping Outman is dangerous because of his lack of options. This team is terrible (and to be fair, most teams are like this) at cutting their losses if a player isn't performing and cutting them from the MLB roster means they are likely gone from the organization. Teams chase getting value back from under-performing players constantly and for every 2023 Max Kepler there's at least one 2023 Joey Gallo. Beyond that, Outman's defense in CF looked shaky and the metrics on his defense have backed that up. The fear of Outman getting 300 horrible AB's is not crazy.

Larnach provides an ok floor as a hitter at least. Backing Outman is like trying to convince people that Ed Julien's rookie season is still more determinative than his last two seasons. (And I was on Team Julien) Outman is in a very similar spot.

[NYCTK]

10 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

With Roden on the roster and Jenkins and Rodriguez in AAA (or maybe in MLB) you don't really need to bring in a Margot or Bader to cover CF, do you?

Arguably not. But Neither Jenkins or Rodriguez seem to be ready for prime time come opening day, and Alan Roden (as well as Martin) seem to be fine there in short amounts but ultimately stretched past their defensive limitations in CF. So I understand the thought that you need a proper defensive CF as Buxton insurance. 

14 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

This team is terrible (and to be fair, most teams are like this) at cutting their losses if a player isn't performing and cutting them from the MLB roster means they are likely gone from the organization.

People here keep saying this, but I don't agree with the assertion. Manuel Margot is the only example I can think of someone in the last 3 years that should have been DFAd and wasn't. And even if he were, the replacement was going to be Keirsey, so I get in hindsight why the Twins didn't do it. 

Yes, Outman would be held as the 4/5th OF but in the event a starters job load opened up and either Jenkins or Rodriguez (or the more defensively limited OF prospects) were proving themselves deserving a promotion, I don't really think the Twins would hesitate to call up that prospect. And Outman's presence allows the organization to keep those prospects in the minors getting every day playing time if there isn't a starters role available. 

Long way of saying Outman would be on the roster instead of Keirsey. Outman would not be on the roster instead of Walker Jenkins. Which I'm not going to pretend to be upset about. 

[old nurse]

When Larnach was drafted 3 outcome batters were analytically preferred.  Much to Larnach’s luck they changed the ball making him have warning track power. He and the coaches never found the adjustment. Now the paradigm also includes running after the ball. Unfortunately Larnach will not get much faster even if he tries to .

[Riverbrian]

5 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

The fear that the organization will keep Outman is not a great reason for keeping Larnach. Larnach is definitely better than Outman at this point, a much better and more consistent hitter. Whatever else Outman offers (much better defense, potential speed on the bases) doesn't make up for it because he appears to be completely lost as a hitter.

While I disagreed with the trade at the time, and still think it was a mistake even with Stewart getting injured almost immediately, taking a shot on fixing Outman in the second half of a lost season isn't in and of itself a crazy idea; the guy was 3rd in Rookie of the Year in 2023, so you never know. But he was awful in 2024 and worse in 2025. At his age and with these results, he looks like a Quad-A player.

I'd keep Larnach over Outman for sure. But with our self-imposed payroll limitations from crappy ownership, I'd move on from Larnach too. Outman should be a candidate for a minor league deal after being cut, and keeping him to justify a trade is more sunk cost fallacy from this front office and another reason to move on from them.

I agree that it isn't crazy to take a shot with Outman. People will think that we are crazy for not thinking it's crazy.

As it currently stands... we have 6 (Buxton, Wallner, Larnach, Martin, Outman and Rodon) outfielders for hard consideration for what is typically 5 OF spots coming out of spring training. If Outman stays and I think he will. Someone else will have to be traded, released or sent down to the minors where they will join 3 (Erod, GG and Jenkins) other outfielders knocking on the door. 

Outman has the potential to force someone out the door.

Myself personally and many disagree with me. I'm reluctant to part with Larnach until someone out performs him because he is one of 5 hitters (Lewis is not one of the 5) on the current roster performing at least average or above average. I just don't believe that Larnach is where you start when it comes to the clean up. 

I can see a scenario where Outman forces someone out. All in all, I think there is strength in numbers and I'd like to see the club pour as much talent through the filter as possible. 

[DJL44]

10 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I agree that it isn't crazy to take a shot with Outman. People will think that we are crazy for not thinking it's crazy.

I think it's a bad idea to waste MLB at-bats on a player with limited upside. Suppose playing on a bad team has less pressure than playing for the Dodgers and Outman can put up an OPS more in line with his AAA stats. He becomes a 700 OPS guy with a decent glove for a couple seasons when the Twins aren't trying to contend. Then he starts his inevitable post-age-30 decline as his arbitration salaries increase and he gets non-tendered in 2027. What's the point? Why not invest the playing time in Emmanuel Rodriguez instead?

[Riverbrian]

34 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I think it's a bad idea to waste MLB at-bats on a player with limited upside. Suppose playing on a bad team has less pressure than playing for the Dodgers and Outman can put up an OPS more in line with his AAA stats. He becomes a 700 OPS guy with a decent glove for a couple seasons when the Twins aren't trying to contend. Then he starts his inevitable post-age-30 decline as his arbitration salaries increase and he gets non-tendered in 2027. What's the point? Why not invest the playing time in Emmanuel Rodriguez instead?

I won't argue any of this because I don't necessarily disagree. 

These following points will sound like arguments but they aren't. 

The post-age-30 decline isn't inevitable.

We'd like 5 years from a player but we don't need 5 years from a player to be worth it.

Once he hits arbitration it's always a case by case basis. His performance worth the money. 

If Outman has a great 2026. The Twins are one player closer to contention. If Lewis returns to form, we are two players closer to contention.

If the Twins don't contend... (most people are betting on this) His trade value rises. We might get something more than Brock Stewart in return. 

Again... not arguments. Just squinting and seeing a reason for it.  

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

I agree that it isn't crazy to take a shot with Outman. People will think that we are crazy for not thinking it's crazy.

As it currently stands... we have 6 (Buxton, Wallner, Larnach, Martin, Outman and Rodon) outfielders for hard consideration for what is typically 5 OF spots coming out of spring training. If Outman stays and I think he will. Someone else will have to be traded, released or sent down to the minors where they will join 3 (Erod, GG and Jenkins) other outfielders knocking on the door. 

Outman has the potential to force someone out the door.

Myself personally and many disagree with me. I'm reluctant to part with Larnach until someone out performs him because he is one of 5 hitters (Lewis is not one of the 5) on the current roster performing at least average or above average. I just don't believe that Larnach is where you start when it comes to the clean up. 

I can see a scenario where Outman forces someone out. All in all, I think there is strength in numbers and I'd like to see the club pour as much talent through the filter as possible. 

Let me be clear: I didn't think it was crazy to take a shot on Outman this year. Next year? That's a different story. Keeping Outman looks like throwing good money after bad. If he sticks on the roster, we're likely to see him hitting poorly, playing little, and wasting a roster spot for months even if (as is likely) one of Rodriguez, Jenkins, or Gonzalez is ripping it up, especially if Larnach is still on the roster.

There are 5 hitters on the roster that out-performed Larnach last season: Buxton, Jeffers, Keaschall, Wallner, and Martin. Larnach unfortunately, was closer to Kody Clemens than he was to any of the others (99 OPS+ vs 96). Martin may have only gotten 50 games, but did well, showing real improvement and value in LF, an ability to get on base and do things with his legs (some of them not so great, but it is what it is).

Roden still has options, so the Twins could elect to start him back in AAA with all of the other high upside OFs they have piling up there, but picking Outman over any of them at this point seems more like ego than intelligence to me. While I don't dislike Larnach particularly, his limitations (adding nothing defensively or on the bases) added to his seemingly limited upside and increasing cost makes him almost a liability.

I'd prefer to start filtering some of the OF talent from AAA sooner rather than later.

[Riverbrian]

3 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Let me be clear: I didn't think it was crazy to take a shot on Outman this year. Next year?

Too funny. 

I'd give him until June next year. That's the end of my rope. 

IMO... If it was just a two month audition that cost us Brock Stewart. I wonder why he didn't immediately go up to the majors after the trade. He was called up on August 16th when Rodon got hurt. Rodon was ahead of him in the pecking order. 

To work on something specific in St. Paul? 16 days should do the trick? When is AAA numbers are solid does additional AAA time do him any good? 

There's a lot of confusion over the trade. And rightfully so.