Road to a Rebound: Matt Wallner

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

Here are a few things that might surprise you about Matt Wallner's 2025 season, compared to his previous norm: he struck out less, swung and miss less, and walked more. And despite batting just .202, he was still 10% better than the average MLB hitter overall. 

I don't think these facts match up with a lot of perceptions from the fanbase, understandably enough. With his big penchant for big whiffs, Wallner's aesthetics haven't quite matched the caliber of his offensive performance in the big leagues, which is why many didn't recognize that he was one of the most productive hitters in all of baseball for the first couple seasons of his career, rubbing shoulders on the wOBA leaderboard with perennial MVP contenders. 

Wallner's step back  in 2025 was disappointing and discouraging, to be sure, but from my view, less disturbing than some of the other hitters covered in this "Road to a Rebound" series. (Find previous entries linked at the bottom of this article.)

The Cruel Whims of BABIP and RISP
In 2023 and 2024, Wallner greatly exceeded his expected batting average, for one simple reason: amazing fortune on balls in play. Between those two seasons, his .358 BABIP was third-highest in MLB (min. 500 PA), enabling him to bat .257 despite a 34% K-rate. 

There's always a degree of randomness involved with BABIP. It definitely helps to consistently hit the ball hard as hell, but in the case of Wallner — a lumbering fly ball hitter — such a high rate of reaching on contact never felt sustainable. (Especially because, to be clear, home runs do not count toward one's batting average on balls in play.)

Sure enough, things swung in the opposite direction for Wallner in 2025. His .228 BABIP ranked third-worst in the majors (min. 300 PA) and as a result his batting average sunk to nearly the Mendoza line. 

One of the other glaring characteristics of Wallner's 2025 season was his performance with runners in scoring position, where he batted just .177. Fifteen of his 17 homers were solo shots. Troubling numbers! But we're talking about a sample size of 62 at-bats, and the same thing is true of Wallner's RISP stats as his BABIP — prior to being very bad in 2025, they were extremely good.

 

I'm not saying either of these things are out of a hitter's control. But again, there's definitely some randomness involved and Wallner seems like proof positive, given how relatively little his underlying metrics changed. I feel safe in saying that, even without the kind of wholesale adjustments we need to see from Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis, Wallner will naturally gravitate back toward being a quality hitter in 2026. 

But just how far he bounces back with the bat matters because his defensive outlook has shifted more firmly for the worse.

An Uncertain Defensive Future
Wallner has persistently rated out very poorly in the field, thanks mainly to a lack of range, and that could present an issue for a Twins team that has been vocal about wanting to sharpen up defensively. The missed plays became more frequent and noticeable from Wallner, who on several occasions gave up extra bases on ill-advised dives. His stellar arm just doesn't come into play often enough to be a major asset.

I'm of two minds on Wallner and his defensive future. I do think that upgrading to someone like Alan Roden could potentially save a bunch of runs, but then you've got Roden and his questionable bat starting in right field. Actually what I find most likely is that Wallner holds down the job for a while longer, before Byron Buxton eventually slides to right field and Walker Jenkins takes over in center. 

Either way, whether he's holding down right field as a subpar glove or relocating to DH, the pressure will be on Wallner's bat to produce if he's going to emerge as a true cornerstone player. 

Sturdy Strengths to Build On
I'm probably more bullish on Wallner than any other Twins hitter who had a down year and is looking to rebound. There are some variables that can affect his outcomes greatly, and slumps will remain inevitable, but when your core foundation involves taking good at-bats, walking at a 12% clip and consistently hitting the ball as hard as anyone in the league, you're going to be in solid shape at the plate. Certainly there are tweaks and adjustments Wallner can and should make to facilitate better outcomes on swings next year, but there's reason for confidence that he can get back to meeting his high bar for offensive output.

Explore previous entries in the "Road to a Rebound" series: Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis

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[HrbieFan]

How do you make Wallner look great? Bring up the gross name of Alan Roden! God forbid, leave Roden in St Paul and ride ERod. Give Wallner a 1B glove now and have him take 500 grounders a day, he can't be a regular OF if we want to actually win. 

 

As for the bat, is there a way to help batters with pitch recognition? If so, he needs it! He has the power, but you don't need to swing for Target Center every time. Next coach and hitting coach have their work cut out. Would love to see him hit .240, with 30 HR and 90+ RBIs. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

There is a good bat in there. I don't trust him longer term on defense in right, but he is fine there for now. I am curious how Roden looks in the field and at the plate and if his contact ability and speed on the bases would be enough to offset Wallner's bat by being in the field compared to Wallner. I am also very excited for the potential of Jenkins and Rodriguez, so we'll see.

All of this tells me too that IF they are going to trade someone like Joe Ryan, I don't know that I see an outfielder as the primary focus for the return unless they are also planning on moving on from Wallner and others.

[Cory Engelhardt]

21 minutes ago, HrbieFan said:

How do you make Wallner look great? Bring up the gross name of Alan Roden! God forbid, leave Roden in St Paul and ride ERod. Give Wallner a 1B glove now and have him take 500 grounders a day, he can't be a regular OF if we want to actually win. 

 

As for the bat, is there a way to help batters with pitch recognition? If so, he needs it! He has the power, but you don't need to swing for Target Center every time. Next coach and hitting coach have their work cut out. Would love to see him hit .240, with 30 HR and 90+ RBIs. 

I'm not at all certain what Alan Roden will look like in the majors. I don't know how many of his skills will translate. But he is 25 (26 in December) and every year in the minors he's shown decent speed, minimal pop and really good strikeout and walk rates. I'm not saying at all that he will be a star, and if every one of the prospects works out then he should be a really good backup in any of the outfield spots. 

Just mostly saying that he has the makings of someone who could actually help potentially. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Wallner grades pretty high on MFL. What is MFL, you ask? My Frustration Level. And what is written inside his batting helmet? Inquiring fans want to know. 

[TopGunn#22]

I think I know what is written inside his helmet, tarheel, but it's just an educated guess...SWING...HARD...!!!

I think just about every seasonal evaluation of Matt Wallner has been somewhat incomplete and subject to a small sample size.  Whether it was health or ineffective play, Wallner has never spent a full season with the Twins, and his inability to hit LHP cuts into his AB's as well.

But his power is prodigious and should be intriguing to a number of teams.  I fantasize about trading him to the White Sox for one of their young Catchers.  Someone else suggested trading him to the Pirates for a talented, young pitcher coming off a season ending arm injury (Jared Jones) who should be ready sometime in early-mid May.  I like that trade as well.

Because the Twins have Walker Jenkins, E-Rod, Alan Roden and Gabe Gonzales all on the cusp of debuting in the Major Leagues I view both Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach as superfluous.  They also have Austin Martin and even Winokur, not to mention whatever college OF bats they draft.  The Twins have huge holes at C, 1B and bullpen.  I'm fully in the camp of trading Wallner while his allure of BIG POWER can be cashed in on.  I see more value in what Wallner can bring in a TRADE to the Twins.  

[big dog]

31 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Wallner grades pretty high on MFL. What is MFL, you ask? My Frustration Level. And what is written inside his batting helmet? Inquiring fans want to know. 

"I Believe in Me, not in social media"

[S Bart]

Miguel Sano replica?

[DJL44]

I think the injuries affected him last season. He'd get on a hot streak, get hurt, come back with his timing not quite right.

[Otaknam]

50 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Wallner grades pretty high on MFL. What is MFL, you ask? My Frustration Level. And what is written inside his batting helmet? Inquiring fans want to know. 

MFL! That’s a good one! So many stats to deny the eye test. For Wallner his massive strikeout numbers, low RISP and batting average are what are the most relevant to me. Let’s hope Wallner has a massive bounce back season in 2026. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

17 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Because the Twins have Walker Jenkins, E-Rod, Alan Roden and Gabe Gonzales all on the cusp of debuting in the Major Leagues I view both Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach as superfluous.  They also have Austin Martin and even Winokur, not to mention whatever college OF bats they draft.  The Twins have huge holes at C, 1B and bullpen.  I'm fully in the camp of trading Wallner while his allure of BIG POWER can be cashed in on.  I see more value in what Wallner can bring in a TRADE to the Twins.  

I think there is a danger in this view.  Jenkins, E-Rod, Roden, and Gonzales have proven exactly nothing in the major leagues.  They might all succeed (wouldn’t that be nice), but they also might all fail to live up to the lofty expectations that people have for them.  At very least, they are going to go through the same kinds of growing pains that Wallner and Larnach (and Julien and Lee and Lewis) are currently going through.  Opening up TWO outfield spots and rolling the prospects out to start could very easily blow up in their faces.  It happens all the time because Major League Baseball is harder than minor league baseball, both offensively and defensively.  

Wallner had a pretty bad year by his previously established standards.  However, it only looks bad because he was so outstanding in limited action the past two years.  In fact, if Larnach would have had Wallner’s stats in 2025, we would be talking about the progress he had made.  I am more than willing to keep Wallner in the lineup and bank on a bounce back to previously offensive levels.  Defensively, he really should be the (mostly) full-time DH, still available to play OF when needed. We definitely need his power bat in the lineup, because someone not named Buxton has to be able to hit the ball out of the park too if this team is to be competitive.  Trading him for the sake of trading him is a little bit like trading Louis Varland for the sake of trading him that we did at the deadline.  

[EGFTShaw]

First working in the "Mendoza line" gets a 5⭐rating. Along with words like audacity.

I always believe there is room for improvement.

Pluses:
POWER:  Prodigious Power. (also working in the word prodigious gets a bump)
HIT: I am hesitant to add hit, because at the moment it is mainly POWER.

Minuses:
HIT: things other than POWER.
DEFENSE: 🙄

He will never be confused with Buxton or Bader regardless how much he improves defensively, but I think he could be coached up to be an average defender.

He could be coached to walk more, be a more discerning hitter, (never going to be Rod Carew), and learn to take what the pitchers give him.

Some talents are not really teachable, Vlad Guererro, Sr golfing a home run.

The basics should be.

This is what has frustrated me about the Twins coaching.

The fundamentals of hitting and fielding seem to be a lost art.  Quick get MapQuest and find the way back to the Twins Way.

[Doctor Gast]

I have much more faith in Lewis & Lee to figure things out than Wallner, Because they are more natural hitters. Sano, Wallner, Larnach, Julien & to some extent Jeffers have come up in the MiLB learning the same hitting approach. Iniatally had a lot of power success, but MLB pitchers adjusted, which minimized clutch HRs & maximized SOs, leaving them useless. Sano & Julien couldn't readjust. Larnach & Jeffers adjusted so they wouldn't SO so much but greatly affected their HR counts. Wallner? Like Larnach & Jeffers, IMO, will adjust, but how many clutch HRs will he hit? Not many. IMO, his hitting will not justify is lack of defense, which justifies his keep. It pains me to see players like Wallner not develop correctly & although I'd love to see hometown Wallner do well, I've added him to my long past list of players that we need to trade before they become worthless (that Falvey ignores).

[JD-TWINS]

I just think he has too many holes to be exploited with his current/past approach. He’s not shown much in the RBI dept. (.177 with RISP in ‘25). IMO, if he wasn’t a native Minnesotan, TD would be carving him up continuously!!

.245 - 30 HR - 70 RBI would be a remarkable season for Wallner. assuming he gets to 550 PA’s this season.

He needs to figure out how to stay healthy enough and productive enough to warrant consistent time over a whole season!

’23 - 2.2 WAR ……’24 - 2.2 WAR ……’25 - 0.3 WAR

He played in 30 more games in ‘25 than in the other two years. BIG drop in production AND in the potential for any shine going forward!

[tony&rodney]

My deepest concern is a replay of the past two off seasons, where a belief in the players currently rostered means the status quo plays out. Front office people will always make generic comments that the players in house are plenty good enough to win, but the repeated statements from Falvey in the past were followed by inaction. The purge of the bullpen in late July was a surprise and went largely unexplained. Is there a change in thinking about the rostered position side? My position is that the current roster is potentially a 55-75 win squad. Change is needed. If Wallner is restricted to DH there may be possibilities for him as a Twin. 

 

[Trov]

Success with RISP versus bases empty is not random by any stretch.  Maybe that is not what the author meant, but that is how I read it.  Why is it not random, because how he gets pitched is not random.  If he has runners on base, the pitcher will make more of an effort to not give him meat to crush.  When you are up or down a ton, keep in mind at least 1 if not more of his HR came off position players, you face worse pitchers that may not be as good, or just want to throw strikes. 

If he is in a big spot, a lefty will come in to face him, or the pitcher will try harder to hit the corners, or make sure they throw to his holes in his swing, mainly fastballs above his swing. Unless bases are loaded the pitcher may be more willing to have him work a walk and face someone behind him, in hopes he chases pitches he cannot handle. 

Trevor Plouffe did this years ago when he had his one big HR season, for him, not big overall.  Fans got all excited like maybe he could repeat it, only to learn that he was just crushing BP fastballs when up or down a lot, but when guys were on and pitchers actually tried hard to get him out, he would get out.

[jmlease1]

Wallner is probably the most divisive hitter on the Twins roster right now. His style is going to be anathema for some people: lots of K's, lots of BB's, lots of HRs, not a lot else. If he slips, then the hounds will be after him.

While I think Wallner was a bit unlucky last season, the real key for him is going to be whether or not he can handle high fastballs at the top of the zone. He definitely got exploited there last season, and my impression was he got attacked there more as the season went along. That suggests people are getting a book on him and if you show a weakness like that, which is exploitable by a lot of pitchers, even relievers with questionable control, you'd better adjust quickly or things will go sideways.

He might be capable of bringing back some defensive value; while he's never going to be quick, he could still improve his route running and surety with the glove. He was substantially worse last season in the field than he's ever been, but it's hard to know if that's a fluke or a trend. It could be he's just too slow and not a good enough fielder to do more out there, or it could be he was more tentative after pulling the hammy and going into a new season he's back to being a solidly below average fielder instead of a dreadful one. But regardless, he's likely to be looking at a shift down to DH more. Which is fine if he's getting back to hitting like he did in 2023-2024.

I'll be curious to see how Wallner does handling offspeed this season; he really struggled with it in 2025, but it wasn't a huge part of his diet, so that could have been one of those small sample flukes...or it could have been his success in previous years was the small sample fluke. If he lands at career averages in 2026 that will help tick things up a bit.

He still takes his walks and reads the strike zone pretty well. I think he's likely to rebound some but until he shows he can handle the high fastball I'm concerned it will be a more modest improvement.

[Blyleven2011]

Wallner needs help and plenty of it ...

Defense is poor  ...

offense he has never made any adjustments , i hope he finds a diffent voice that may help him ( like driveline ) , he needs to shorten that swing ( he may not hit the ball as far but he will still hit homers with better bat speed  ), better recognition of pitches , change his stance in the box just for starters , he needs a new makeoverpure and simple ...

If he doesn't improve ,  it wasn't mentioned but we have a new manager coming in that will put wallner on the bench with less playing time than our past manager gave him  ...

What's inside his helmet is empty right now , he needs to fill it with confidence , the look on his face when in the batters box tells the whole story ...

[ArraezChicken]

2 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Wallner grades pretty high on MFL. What is MFL, you ask? My Frustration Level. And what is written inside his batting helmet? Inquiring fans want to know. 

I honestly think he just has a gross habit of smelling his helmet. Also, my wife said Wallner bats like "he's trying to see the ball with his teeth" and now I can't unsee it anytime he's up.

[PatPfund]

I hope @Nick Nelson is correct, but I'm more in the @jmlease1 school. I don't really look at last year as just 'down' or 'unlucky'. It was the first season Wallner played over 76 games, and I think the league has figured out that if you pump in heat, especially high heat, Wallner can't hit it. I'm as pessimistic on Wallner as I am about any of the down hitters, because I think he needs some major alterations to his swing to hit MLB fastballs and cover the upper third of the zone. Maybe he puts in the work to do that, but if he doesn't, he edges towards unplayable.

[Mahoning]

You win with stars. Is Matt Wallner ever going to be a star? It's probably now or never for him. 

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, Blyleven2011 said:

offense he has never made any adjustments , i hope he finds a diffent voice that may help him ( like driveline ) , he needs to shorten that swing ( he may not hit the ball as far but he will still hit homers with better bat speed  ), better recognition of pitches , change his stance in the box just for starters , he needs a new makeoverpure and simple ...

If he doesn't improve ,  it wasn't mentioned but we have a new manager coming in that will put wallner on the bench with less playing time than our past manager gave him  ...

What's inside his helmet is empty right now , he needs to fill it with confidence , the look on his face when in the batters box tells the whole story ...

Great example of the disconnect between perception and reality with Wallner! We're treating him like he's been a disaster at the plate -- he has a 127 career OPS+. That would rank in the top 10 all time for this franchise. For reference: Allison 127, Hrbek 128, Oliva 131.

[Mike Sixel]

21 minutes ago, Mahoning said:

You win with stars. Is Matt Wallner ever going to be a star? It's probably now or never for him. 

I'm not sure I understand this post? No team has 24 stars on it. 

[Nick Nelson]

44 minutes ago, PatPfund said:

I hope @Nick Nelson is correct, but I'm more in the @jmlease1 school. I don't really look at last year as just 'down' or 'unlucky'. It was the first season Wallner played over 76 games, and I think the league has figured out that if you pump in heat, especially high heat, Wallner can't hit it. I'm as pessimistic on Wallner as I am about any of the down hitters, because I think he needs some major alterations to his swing to hit MLB fastballs and cover the upper third of the zone. Maybe he puts in the work to do that, but if he doesn't, he edges towards unplayable.

I get that memories of these at-bats (getting beat with fastballs up in the zone) stick in people's minds, but what evidence is there that it actually derailed his game? If pitchers unlocked some new advantage wouldn't it lead to more strikeouts, fewer walks, more pop-ups, something? He stayed consistent or improved in basically all of these areas. 

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, Trov said:

Success with RISP versus bases empty is not random by any stretch.  Maybe that is not what the author meant, but that is how I read it.  Why is it not random, because how he gets pitched is not random.  If he has runners on base, the pitcher will make more of an effort to not give him meat to crush.  When you are up or down a ton, keep in mind at least 1 if not more of his HR came off position players, you face worse pitchers that may not be as good, or just want to throw strikes. 

Okay but here's the thing: in 2024 Wallner had a 1.123 OPS with RISP and in 2023 it was .983. Did his skill for hitting in these situations radically change from one year to the next or are we looking at statistical noise in a sample of 60 at-bats? You can certainly believe what you please but it's at least a valid question to ask. (I'll add that despite the .177 avg, Wallner had a very solid 19-to-14 K/BB in 79 PA with RISP so it's not like he was getting dismantled in those ABs.)

[Blyleven2011]

5 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Great example of the disconnect between perception and reality with Wallner! We're treating him like he's been a disaster at the plate -- he has a 127 career OPS+. That would rank in the top 10 all time for this franchise. For reference: Allison 127, Hrbek 128, Oliva 131.

Nick , I want wallner to succeed as much of the next guy , my eye test over your stats tells me everything i need to know  , he's a bench player in the years to come if he doesn't make the necessary adjustments  , he was a disaster at the plate  in 2025 and at the beginning of 2024 and shipped out to get back on track and he managed to but not like his most sucessful year of 2023  ...

I'm comparing wallner to wallner , not previous players , I hope he can prove me wrong and I eat my words , cause I see nothing but lack of confidence with regression  ....

[jmlease1]

15 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

I get that memories of these at-bats (getting beat with fastballs up in the zone) stick in people's minds, but what evidence is there that it actually derailed his game? If pitchers unlocked some new advantage wouldn't it lead to more strikeouts, fewer walks, more pop-ups, something? He stayed consistent or improved in basically all of these areas. 

well, his barrel rate was down; after being at 18.8% and 17.5% he dropped to 13.8%, which seems significant, even if he was still better than most of the league. Combined with a career-low hard hit rate and substantially worse success against fastball in 2025 compared to the previous 2 seasons, I don't think it's just the eye test here. Now, he also may have had some bad luck here, but the results do show some concerning metrics. And we certainly saw the "heat zones" on Wallner showing how much better he was on balls down than up in the zone.

I'm not out on Wallner or anything, but it does seem like he needs to make an adjustment to get back to where he was. I'm encouraged by the fact that despite his struggles he still was around league average for his chase rate and was able to keep taking walks at his same kinds of rates.

A little better luck and a return to form on handling fastballs (however he does it) and he's a weapon again. It's very possible, but I'm not ready to predict he's going to be back as a 140 OPS+ guy yet. It would be a huge benefit to the Twin if he does, and I'm certainly not going to panic about his poor results with RISP or Late & Close yet; those are truly small samples.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Wallner is probably the most divisive hitter on the Twins roster right now. His style is going to be anathema for some people: lots of K's, lots of BB's, lots of HRs, not a lot else. If he slips, then the hounds will be after him.

While I think Wallner was a bit unlucky last season, the real key for him is going to be whether or not he can handle high fastballs at the top of the zone. He definitely got exploited there last season, and my impression was he got attacked there more as the season went along. That suggests people are getting a book on him and if you show a weakness like that, which is exploitable by a lot of pitchers, even relievers with questionable control, you'd better adjust quickly or things will go sideways.

He might be capable of bringing back some defensive value; while he's never going to be quick, he could still improve his route running and surety with the glove. He was substantially worse last season in the field than he's ever been, but it's hard to know if that's a fluke or a trend. It could be he's just too slow and not a good enough fielder to do more out there, or it could be he was more tentative after pulling the hammy and going into a new season he's back to being a solidly below average fielder instead of a dreadful one. But regardless, he's likely to be looking at a shift down to DH more. Which is fine if he's getting back to hitting like he did in 2023-2024.

I'll be curious to see how Wallner does handling offspeed this season; he really struggled with it in 2025, but it wasn't a huge part of his diet, so that could have been one of those small sample flukes...or it could have been his success in previous years was the small sample fluke. If he lands at career averages in 2026 that will help tick things up a bit.

He still takes his walks and reads the strike zone pretty well. I think he's likely to rebound some but until he shows he can handle the high fastball I'm concerned it will be a more modest improvement.

I don’t dislike the “guy” but relative to critiquing his hitting……I guess I’d be considered one of the hounds you refer to above.

I just don’t understand how one can have 22 HR with 40 total RBI over nearly 400 AB’s???

Getting “his stats” are what every guy is trying to do - I get that, but Wallner (getting back to his stats) walking as much as he does along with his pretty good frequency and total of HR’s, his Production as contribution to Wins is abysmal!

I guess that after ‘25, I have lost any confidence in the guy. In ‘24, he started so slow that he was sent down for 10 weeks. He came back and had a pretty decent last 10 weeks. One can’t be hurt or performing poorly for big chunks of time, season after season, AND be involved in a Teams plans for the future!

[Nshore]

IMO Wallner is too passive as a hitter.  It seemed like he often stared at a fastball right down the middle like a deer in the headlights with men on base.  Or he was arguing with the umpire after taking a pitch that was an eighth of an inch off the plate.  Maybe it's lack of pitch recognition as another commenter mentioned - or just his overall approach between his ears.  Regardless, because of his limitations in the field and hitting against lefties, he has some serious off season work to do to remain in ML baseball.

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Great example of the disconnect between perception and reality with Wallner! We're treating him like he's been a disaster at the plate -- he has a 127 career OPS+. 

It's the situational splits, if you want to use OPS as a guide.

For his career, his OPS when the game is within 1 run has been .708.  Once the game margin is more than 4 runs, his OPS swells to 1.090.  His 2025 was like this but even a little more extreme.  Once the game is pretty much decided, Wallner's your man.  I think that's where the "disconnect between perception and reality" comes from - because totals aren't necessarily "reality" and sometimes perception is a clue to look deeper.

By contrast, this year Byron Buxton was good in those >4 Run situations, .841 OPS - but he was even better when the game was within 1 run, .971.  Most of us enjoyed Buxton's season, and he defies the MLB-wide trend, which in 2025 was .746/.713 - almost everybody hits a little better when the game gets out of hand.  Wallner's just been an extreme case.