Arbitrary Thoughts: Justin Topa

[Matt Braun]

Image courtesy of © Yannick Peterhans / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

RHP Justin Topa
Age on Opening Day 2026: 35
Service Time: 5 years, 44 days

2023 Salary: League Minimum
2024 Salary: $1,250,000
2025 Salary: $1,000,000
2026 Salary: $2,000,000 team option ($225,000 buyout)

Background:
A wandering soul, Justin Topa was originally drafted back in 2012 by the Reds, but didn’t turn pro until the Pirates selected him in the 17th round the following year. Since then, he’s pitched everywhere, appearing with four organizations and the Independent Rockland Boulders before becoming a Twin before the 2024 season. His best year was in 2023, when he put up a 2.61 ERA in 75 games for the Seattle Mariners. He then landed with Minnesota in the Jorge Polanco trade that winter.

2025 Season:
Topa entered 2025 as a wild card: his previous success in the Pacific Northwest made him an intriguing arm. Yet, he missed nearly all of 2024 with nagging ailments, only moonlighting with the Twins for three games at the end of the year. His 2025 was… fine. The cursory numbers hold up under scrutiny—a 3.90 ERA, with peripherals more or less in agreement that he was cromulent—but Topa was unreliable in situations that mattered. His -1.64 WPA was the fourth-worst among qualified relievers. FanGraphs credits him with 12 “shutdowns” and 12 “meltdowns”, outings in which a pitcher accrued or lost 0.06 WPA or more. As you'd guess, a good reliever has more of the former than the latter.

2025 Stats: 54 G, 60 IP, 68 H, 18 BB, 49 K, 3.90 ERA, 1.43 WHIP

Twins Depth at his Position (Right-Handed Reliever):

• Cole Sands - 40-man roster
• Cody Laweryson - 40-man roster
• Pierson Ohl - 40-man roster
• Thomas Hatch - 40-man roster
• Michael Tonkin - Arbitration eligible
• Triple-A: Travis Adams, Cory Lewis
• Double-A: Darren Bowen, C.J. Culpepper

Summary:
There are certainly more names that could be here, but it’s unclear at the moment how the starting pitcher clog will play out. Marco Raya or John Klein could factor into the bullpen. So could David Festa, though mainly because of health concerns. 

Why the Twins Should Pick up His Option:
Topa is a unique case, in that the Twins possess a team option for $2,000,000 with a $225,000 buyout. He’s the only arbitration-eligible player on the team in this boat. The onus is entirely on them to bring back Topa, although they could choose to decline the option and still tender him a deal for arbitration, if they so desire.

Topa is more interesting than your average 34-year-old coming off a mediocre year. He throws from one of the lowest right-handed arm angles in the game (10 degrees), which allows him to potentially maximize a unique sinker/cutter/sweeper pitch mix. As such, his groundball rate in 2025 was high, his barrel rate was low, and he commanded his arsenal well enough to walk fewer batters than average. That’s a useful combination of skills.

Why the Twins Should Not Pick up His Option:
All of those stats are nice, but they’re only descriptive of style, not necessarily of effectiveness, and the sum of Topa’s parts add up to make a mediocre reliever. His 2023 was great, but his stuff has backed up since then, furthering a significant platoon struggle against lefties. We’re not talking about a youngster looking to figure it out. Unless something changes, Topa would be the second-oldest player on the 2026 Twins. For a team interrogating every aspect of their payroll to squeeze value out of every penny, $2,000,000 for a likely average reliever is too rich. 

There's a Third Option?
The Twins could also choose to deny the option but retain Topa's rights and send him through the arbitration process. Now, that would be a very strange thing to do, and it's unclear whether it would save them money, but it is a possibility. 

Projection: I’m 50-50 on whether Topa stays.

In ordinary times, $2,000,000 for a reliever with some interesting traits would be a worthwhile gamble. Minnesota once gave $1,800,000 to Blake Parker before the 2019 season. These are not ordinary times. Early indications point to a stingy offseason that could very well pick off the rest of the meat remaining on the rotting carcass referred to as the “Minnesota Twins.” If the team doesn’t have Griffin Jax money, then they sure as hell don’t have Justin Topa money.

What do you think about Justin Topa? He’s one of the tougher arbitration decisions this year, and the known totals on the team option could alter how the Twins handle him. Does he stay? Or will he go?

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[Vanimal46]

Bonnes and Gleeman talked about Topa's unique situation on the last Gleeman and the Geek episode. If they decline the option and pay the $225K buyout, he will be moved to arbitration eligible on our team. We can still non-tender him, but the point is he won't be an outright free agent if we decline the $2M option. 

Topa is fine, and the Twins need bodies, lots of bodies to rebuild this bullpen. If declining the option, paying the $225K buyout, then going through standard arbitration process saves the Twins 50 cents, you know that's the route they will go. 

[DJL44]

Just pay him the $2M. They don't have enough competent relievers to throw one away. They aren't going to find anything better on the free agent market for $2M. If he has a good spring, trade him in July.

[Bob Twins Fan Since 61]

My vote: Move on, I have seen enough of Topa.  He is an aged, injury-prone, mediocre reliever.  Better to give spot to younger pitcher who has some upside.

[farmerguychris]

As far as the pen goes - I envision him as 'just a guy'.  Not sure we don't have someone else already in the system that would fill this same role for less.

If we didn't care about payroll- sure sign him.  But since money seems to be the only thing that really matters, I expect they'll let him walk.

[DocBauer]

If they move on, they still pay the $225K buyout. A replacement at minimum cost is just shy of $800K. So in reality, Topa is a $1M question.

The good is that he's at least average and experienced. That's not so bad for a 6th or preferably #7 arm in the pen. 

The bad is little to no upside. If you plug in a rookie at the minimum, you get much more upside. But do you get anything close to immediate, positive results? Or do you get a rookie train wreck feeling his way initially?

I'm 50/50 whether he's worth that $1M and a 40 man spot. Realistically, he neither really helps or hurts the pen. He's a placeholder who MIGHT be worth 0.5 to 1 WAR if he's healthy all season and he has a bit of 2023 magic still left in his arm. 

You'd like to think $1M, even for the cheap Pohlads, is a drop in the bucket so you might as well bring him back. But if you're going to sign 3 good, solid ML FA on 40 man deals, plus bring in a couple lower MILB flier types, and you also have a couple younger arms in the system, (Sands, Funderburk, Laweryson, Adams, Ohl, Raya, Lewis, etc), maybe it's more about the 40 man spot and less about the $1M?

Again, I'm currently 50/50.

[Blyleven2011]

He's signed for 2026 and for this front office I think he's shown enough promise for them to be a depth arm at a reasonable price ...

Im not crazy about building the bullpen up again but it is what it is ...

There's a few that don't even belong on our 40 man roster , they don't even belong on our AAA roster and they definitely don't need to be invited to spring training ...

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

Bonnes and Gleeman talked about Topa's unique situation on the last Gleeman and the Geek episode. If they decline the option and pay the $225K buyout, he will be moved to arbitration eligible on our team. We can still non-tender him, but the point is he won't be an outright free agent if we decline the $2M option. 

Topa is fine, and the Twins need bodies, lots of bodies to rebuild this bullpen. If declining the option, paying the $225K buyout, then going through standard arbitration process saves the Twins 50 cents, you know that's the route they will go. 

Give Topa a better infield defense and he becomes a more effective pitcher. 

[jmlease1]

I think he's a solid middle reliever and $2M is a reasonable rate. The injury issues are the biggest concern there, but I'd say it's still worth the risk there coming off a pretty healthy season. Considering how there's a real possibility of how many spots are potentially getting filled with inexperienced relievers (Adams, Ohl, Raya, maybe Festa, etc) who are not just inexperience at being MLB players but inexperienced at being relievers, really...having a vet presence in Topa who has already been here isn't the worst idea.

Pay the $2M, don't try and play games with arbitration to (maybe) chisel out $150K.

[LewFordLives]

I had to look up "cromulent".

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Bob Twins Fan Since 61 said:

My vote: Move on, I have seen enough of Topa.  He is an aged, injury-prone, mediocre reliever.  Better to give spot to younger pitcher who has some upside.

Assuming they keep Sands, Funderburk and Topa that leaves five spots wide open for young pitchers with upside.

If they had kept Ronny Henriquez last spring, he'd be the closer.

[bunsen82]

You are going to need a few relievers that can eat innings.  At $1 million to $2 million depending where he lands,  that has value.  If we know we have a reliever that can give us that upside while guaranteeing us 50+ innings great.  I just don't see that many relievers out there that we can replace Topa with at that range.  He will be one of your bottom 3 relievers.  With better infield defense his numbers would improve.  

This isn't a question of having Jax money.  The issue with Jax is he was fed up with Twins (deserved or undeserved) and the Twins were willing to flip him to a team in exchange for a starter that was also becoming difficult with his current team.  It was a swapping of disgruntled assets.  For the Rays they only make value on the deal if 1. They trade fairbanks and Jax becomes their starter  2. They convert Jax to a starter the final 2 years and think he can be a #2 or better starter.   The Twins see the gamble as getting an asset with more time and more upside.  That trade was a no brainer in my opinion.  

The rebuilding of this bullpen is going to very interesting this offseason.  Currently I would only plan on retainging 4 - Sands, Funderburk, Topa and Laweryson (the last 2 could be flipped).  We will have 4 openings for either converted starters, trades and free agent signings.    

My one dark horse to take a spot if healthy would be Canterino.   He has the ability,  he has not had the health.  Can the tightening of the ligaments create a scenario where he is healthy again - similarly to the Buxton procedure or Stewart suddenly becoming healthy for longer stretches.   

[Sjoski]

The Twins will resign Topa, trying to squeeze every ounce out of the Polanco trade…while hoping Gonzalez doesn’t make the trade a total bust.

On the other hand.

Gonzalez has to be added to the 40 man roster to avoid Rule 5. 

Wouldn't surprise me to see the Twins cut Topa to make room for Gonzalez. 

[High heat]

Twins don’t have many MLB bullpen arms.  Topa and Sands are really it, they might be middle relievers throw into high leverage reliever spots.  You just need major league arms at this point.  
 

Keep 2 (Sands, Topa)

Free agent Sign 2 

continue converting 2 (Ohl, Adams)

Covert 2 young starters to relievers. 
 

maybe 1 from each catagory works out and you can have some assembly of a bullpen in 2027.

2 Million for a reliever in Topa you know can get MLB hitters out and throw strikes .

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I'm ready to eat the $225k and release him. I see nothing to be gained by signing another aging , injury prone,  below average, right handed relief pitcher.

[DJL44]

39 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

My one dark horse to take a spot if healthy would be Canterino.

I think he's more of a dead horse than a dark horse.

[bunsen82]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I think he's more of a dead horse than a dark horse.

How many people would have said that about Brock Stewart?  

[LewFordLives]

46 minutes ago, High heat said:

Twins don’t have many MLB bullpen arms.  Topa and Sands are really it, they might be middle relievers throw into high leverage reliever spots.  You just need major league arms at this point.  
 

Keep 2 (Sands, Topa)

Free agent Sign 2 

continue converting 2 (Ohl, Adams)

Covert 2 young starters to relievers. 
 

maybe 1 from each catagory works out and you can have some assembly of a bullpen in 2027.

2 Million for a reliever in Topa you know can get MLB hitters out and throw strikes .

You forgot Funderburk. But yeah, I think this is generally how it will all go down. Although by "Free Agent" I'm guessing it will be a few guys off the bargain rack and see who does best in spring training. I wouldn't object to a reunion with Danny Coulombe. He might still fit in their budget.

[jorgenswest]

I have a few wonders…

Can we expect a repeat in last year’s performance level given his age?

If he does decline and the Twins are on the hook for 2 million how long will we wait until he is released?

I also wondered about relief pitchers that signed for 2 million last year. Maton amd Raley were pretty helpful to a bullpen. There are others that were helpful at 2 million or below. 2.25 million more and you get Justin Wilson. There were also signings that didn’t work out often due to injury. One thing in common of all of these signings is older age and often injury history. That fits Topa also. Two million is in line with an aging sometimes injury troubled pitcher. Do the Twins bet on Topa or do they look elesewhere in the pool of aging relievers? One thing that may be in the favor of looking elsewhere is other options will likely have a longer track record of success. One thing in favor of keeping Topa is the Twins should be better able to win the bet on his health than on an aging reliever outside the organization. If they question his ability to stay healthy they should move on.

[Brandon]

Since the Twins don’t have anyone else for the bullpen he obviously stays.  If the Twins had say 5 reliable bullpen arms then I would think it’s a real decision.  But I think he stays.  

[Schmoeman5]

3 hours ago, Bob Twins Fan Since 61 said:

My vote: Move on, I have seen enough of Topa.  He is an aged, injury-prone, mediocre reliever.  Better to give spot to younger pitcher who has some upside.

Potentially.  

[DocBauer]

5 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

How many people would have said that about Brock Stewart?  

I appreciate your sentiment. I really do. Canterino suddenly waking up one day after all the injury nightmares he's had and suddenly being Right is a personal Twins fantasy of mine. And you're correct that his career path is similar to Stewart's. 

And I think we'd all just love to see him surprise himself, and all of us, and be a Cinderella story for the Twins. Similar to Stewart, but also "somewhat" to the Cinderella story Thielbar was as well.

I've just given up on the fantasy at this point. But I'd LOVE to be proven wrong!

[The Great Hambino]

This feels like a true toss-up to me, falling somewhere between "I don't know" and "I don't care".  Whether they pick up his option or decline it, it will sorta feel like the wrong decision either way.

If he's gone a very similar vet will likely be in his place.  Is the mystery vet more likely to have some upside?  If so, drop him, I guess.  If not, then pick the option up.  Either way, shrug

[Patzky]

7 hours ago, Sjoski said:

The Twins will resign Topa, trying to squeeze every ounce out of the Polanco trade…while hoping Gonzalez doesn’t make the trade a total bust.

On the other hand.

Gonzalez has to be added to the 40 man roster to avoid Rule 5. 

Wouldn't surprise me to see the Twins cut Topa to make room for Gonzalez. 

Sadly there are more cutworthy players than either of those two ex Mariners.

[Patzky]

6 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I think he's more of a dead horse than a dark horse.

Nay.

[bunsen82]

2 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I appreciate your sentiment. I really do. Canterino suddenly waking up one day after all the injury nightmares he's had and suddenly being Right is a personal Twins fantasy of mine. And you're correct that his career path is similar to Stewart's. 

And I think we'd all just love to see him surprise himself, and all of us, and be a Cinderella story for the Twins. Similar to Stewart, but also "somewhat" to the Cinderella story Thielbar was as well.

I've just given up on the fantasy at this point. But I'd LOVE to be proven wrong!

I agree a lot has to go right, but if it did, it would fill a big hole. 

[PatPfund]

I looked him up on baseball-reference, and this guy, who will be 35 next spring, has had exactly TWO seasons where he has pitched as many as 8 MLB innings. 8. Only once in his career was he anything notable. Can't count on him to be healthy, can't count on him to be good. Decline the option, non-tender, and find a younger, healthier fungible arm; they're out there.

[Doctor Wu]

If he appears healthy, keep him around. We certainly need more good arms in the bullpen and he's shown that when healthy, he can be productive. The money aspect doesn't seem unsurmountable, but then again, with our current ownership enigma, who knows what is deemed "affordable" or not. 

[Otaknam]

“cromulent”! Screams writer’s thesaurus! As for Topa, what choice do they have with this bullpen that performed so poorly after the carpet bombing trades? If Hatch and Genesis Cabrera are in the 2026 bullpen, then the only conclusion is they are indifferent about winning. 

[IndianaTwin]

4 hours ago, Otaknam said:

“cromulent”! Screams writer’s thesaurus! As for Topa, what choice do they have with this bullpen that performed so poorly after the carpet bombing trades? If Hatch and Genesis Cabrera are in the 2026 bullpen, then the only conclusion is they are indifferent about winning. 

 

On 10/13/2025 at 11:59 AM, LewFordLives said:

I had to look up "cromulent".

Reminds one of the Uecker story, from his days of doing games with Cosell, who apparently didn't appreciate Uecker too much.

Uecker: Some story contradicting Cosell.

Cosell: Don't be so truculent. You probably don't even know what truculent means.

Uecker: Sure I do. If I borrowed your pickup, that would be the truc-u-lent.