A More Assertive Approach Has Kody Clemens Looking Like a Bat Twins Can Count On

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

In 301 plate appearances since coming to the Minnesota Twins, Kody Clemens is batting .211/.281/.426. That's better than his career numbers, believe it or not, but it's far shy of the standard for first basemen in the major leagues. Clemens has spent some time at second base and in left field, but he's essentiall a first baseman, so he'd need to hit much better than that to provide real on-field value—at least in a role as large as the one he's played this year.

Dig a bit deeper, though, and the news gets a bit better. For instance, Baseball Prospectus offers a metric called DRC+. It's akin to wRC+ or OPS+, in that it attempts to describe holistic offensive contributions and uses a scale wherein 100 is average and higher is better. The difference is that it estimates expected contribution—which means correcting not just for park and league factors, but for some elements of batted-ball luck and swing decisions, and for the plate appearance-by-plate appearance level of competition faced. Clemens's DRC+ this year is 106, which indicates that his process at the plate has been much better than the outcomes imply.

What, specifically, does that look like? Consider: Clemens is swinging at the first pitch 28.7% of the time this year, up from roughly 18% in each of the previous two seasons. He's going to the plate ready to tee off, and it's working gorgeously. He's batting .385/.407/.808 on the first pitch, and .410/.410/.949 in 0-1 counts. Being more aggressive is how he's gotten to much more power this year than in the past—even though the change is more about taking what pitchers give him than about a conscious shift into a different mode.

"It’s what you’re seeing, honestly. I mean, be aggressive early in the count," Clemens said. "If he leaves one over the plate that you’re looking for, it’s a great time to swing. It depends, situationally, what your plan of attack is. If our starter is out there for a longer inning and you’re up trying to have a longer at-bat because he was out there for a while, it switches up, but if you get your pitch early in the count, it’s obviously great to go and get the barrel out there."

That kind of mindset—ready to hit as soon as he gets a pitch he likes, but equally willing to work the count, not only for its own sake but to protect his teammates when needed—is why Joe Ryan called Clemens "one of the best teammates we've ever had in [the Twins clubhouse]," a sentiment echoed by several others in the room over the months since he arrived. He's been a team-first guy since arriving, which doesn't automatically make him a better hitter but does help foster the right culture in the dugout and on the field.

It's also smart to be flexible. Clemens might sometimes be shielding his pitchers from having to go back to the mound mere moments after a long inning, but he's also tapped into the value of a bifurcated approach. If you get your pitch early, you have to attack it. If you don't, it makes sense to wait the pitcher out and force them to earn their way back into the count. To wit, Clemens is getting into 2-0 and 3-0 counts considerably more this year than in the last two, despite swinging more often on the first and second pitches. That means that when pitchers fall behind, he's not bailing them out.

Clemens said he knows what to look for, and has tried to be more ready when what he's looking for comes. That means having an idea of what segment of the strike zone he wants to attack, but not locking in so tightly on one pitch type that he can't adjust and do damage if he gets a different offering that still enters his wheelhouse.

"You’re looking for a pitch in a general area," he explained, "but us hitters, if they throw a slider that they popped outside and it’s gonna come to that same area and you recognize it, I think it’s instinctual for hitters to, say you’re sitting fastball middle-in or whatever and they accidentally leave a changeup up and it kind of falls over the plate, you can recognize that and react."

Whether Clemens is part of the Twins' future or not, his developmental arc this season is important, if it indicates that the team has a hitting infrastructure that works. That very thing has been in question all year. Clemens, though, said the team has helped him know when to go up there hacking.

"They've emphasized, this pitcher gives up a ton of damage in 0-0 counts, or be ready to hit early, because this is the most damage that he’s given up," Clemens said. "That’s what they've emphasized over the course of the season."

Clemens might not be back next season, but the team could do much worse than him as a platoon bat off the bench. He's a positive influence in the clubhouse and a positive contributor to the lineup, thanks to his evolving approach and the way he thinks about and listens to others' ideas on hitting. This approach comes with a low ceiling for OBP and hinges on connecting frequently enough to get to all of his power, but Clemens has shown an ability to maximize the value of that way of doing things. The Twins need more players who get the most out of their skills, not fewer.

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[cheeseheadgophfan]

He's fine as a utility player, but there is NO serious MLB team that has him as their full-time starting first baseman....SMH

[Mike Sixel]

No. He's a backup. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

he's the 25th or 26th man on the team. Lets not make him more than he is. If we do we'll be looking at 100 loss seasons.

[chpettit19]

Kody Clemens is awful and it's embarrassing that we're still talking about him. He had an out of this world month of May and its carried his stat line the rest of the year. He isn't a major leaguer. The fact that we're trying to twist ourselves into trying to find some way to explain how players like Kody Clemens can make sense on the Twins roster is the problem. Has been for decades.

[DJL44]

Quote

Clemens might not be back next season, but the team could do much worse than him as a platoon bat off the bench.

I agree, and they have done worse in many seasons. They have several players worse than Kody Clemens on the 28-man roster right now.

[KirbyDome89]

.211/.281/.426 for the season

.191/.258/.368 since June 1st

.203/.260/.392 career (he turns 30 early next season)

Outside of a few weeks he's been borderline unplayable, which is why he was available in the first place...

[USAFChief]

Hes perfectly acceptable if the goal is another 95 loss season. 

[Rufus]

Huh? th guy is hitting about .200... that's a bat you can count on?    

[old nurse]

28 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Kody Clemens is awful and it's embarrassing that we're still talking about him. He had an out of this world month of May and its carried his stat line the rest of the year. He isn't a major leaguer. The fact that we're trying to twist ourselves into trying to find some way to explain how players like Kody Clemens can make sense on the Twins roster is the problem. Has been for decades.

Well, he has the second lowest BABIP for players with 300 PA. Maybe he is an unlucky dude.  People here say an extreme BABIP is a measure of luck. Savant has all sorts of nice numbers on his page  https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/kody-clemens-665019?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb  I don’t know why the twister in chief did not include those numbers.  I looked at Savant because when I looked up his BABIP, I had to see if the .236 was the worst. , Wallner’s was only slightly better and I had to see if Clemens was as slow as Wallner. He is not. 

[CRF]

He's versatile, but he's a low .200's hitter with some pop in his bat every once in a while. A utility player at best. 

[ashbury]

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Well, he has the second lowest BABIP for players with 300 PA. Maybe he is an unlucky dude.  People here say an extreme BABIP is a measure of luck. Savant has all sorts of nice numbers on his page  https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/kody-clemens-665019?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb  I don’t know why the twister in chief did not include those numbers.  I looked at Savant because when I looked up his BABIP, I had to see if the .236 was the worst. , Wallner’s was only slightly better and I had to see if Clemens was as slow as Wallner. He is not. 

Low BABIP was the same excuse we heard for why the next season was going to be Kepler's season every year. He was always due for a breakout! It can be a sign of bad luck, but it isn't always. Kody Clemens is right on his career norms outside of 1 crazy month. He's putting up the same stats he always puts up. He's not an MLB player. He's not some 22-year-old rookie. 

Wallner, on the other hand, has a batting average 50 pts below his career norm this year. People act like this is his norm, it isn't. He hit .259 with power last year. .249 with power the year before. People just assume he's always a .200 hitter because he strikes out more than they'd like.

Kody Clemen's career line is .203/.260/.392/.651. Kody Clemen's 2025 line is .207/.278/.417/.694. And his line after his complete and utter outlier of a month of May is .191/.258/.368/.625. He's doing what he's always done. Be a non-MLB hitter. Which is why an actually good team waived him.

[ashbury]

22 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Low BABIP was the same excuse we heard for why the next season was going to be Kepler's season every year. He was always due for a breakout! It can be a sign of bad luck, but it isn't always.

Concur.  There's no law of physics (or baseball) I know of that decrees BABIP needs to be around .300 or will normalize to it.  Where it comes to normalization, it's to whatever the player's norm is - and I don't know of a tool for guessing what that will be for a player just reaching the majors so when in doubt it's reasonable to guess .290-.300.

But some players, pitchers or batters alike, maintain departures from .300 that eventually need to be acknowledged.  Joe Mauer was one - his lifetime .341 BABIP wasn't luck*, it was a mark of his superior skill.  Clayton Kershaw?  His .274 BABIP is well earned and is also a mark of his greatness.  Max Kepler's a batter chronically on the low side; Ricky Nolasco was a hurler perpetually on the high side.

Aaron Judge's lifetime BABIP is .348.  Does that mean he's lucky?  Yes, of course - he's lucky to have been born with that much talent!!!

So Cody Klemens having a BABIP of .229 across 703 PA starts to look like who he really is.  And the .440 BABIP he enjoyed during a 17-game run of 1.265 OPS in May of this year might, just might, be the outlier.

 

* I dislike using the word "luck" when discussing competition between opposing players who are each trying their best.  I think of a low or high BABIP as potentially unsustainable, for reasons that may or may not be knowable.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Kody Clemens is awful and it's embarrassing that we're still talking about him. He had an out of this world month of May and its carried his stat line the rest of the year. He isn't a major leaguer. The fact that we're trying to twist ourselves into trying to find some way to explain how players like Kody Clemens can make sense on the Twins roster is the problem. Has been for decades.

He shouldn't even be on this roster. Fedko should. I'm so done with this FO 

[NYCTK]

No offense to the author, but this is one of the dumbest headlines I've ever read. 

If you wanted to write this during or immediately after his hot May, I'd somewhat understand it. But now? Come on. He may be on the roster next year but only because this team isn't going to try too hard before Jenkins and Culpepper (or others) are ready to form a core or players. players 

[LambchoP]

This sounds like a very desperate attempt at making him sound passable. Bench bat at best...

[tony&rodney]

I would like to wish Kody Clemens all the best in his next career. He seems like a friendly fellow.

[DocBauer]

A whole new statistic to measure how bad performers might not really be that bad?

Clemens hasn't looked bad with a glove anywhere he's played so far. He's had some big AB for the team. I can see brought to camp next season to see if he might be a solid bench option. If he could maintain a .700-ish OPS with that LH power, he might be useful.

They should be looking for someone better though. Maybe someone from their own system that they haven't given a chance to yet? (Amazing how waiver wire acquisitions receive precedence of in house options). He's a poor hitter with poor OB ability. He's simply a poor offensive player. Trying to find ways to say he's better and more valuable than what he is straw grasping.

Again, possible bench option if the power stays as is and he can somehow keep a .700 OPS going. But let's pretend he's anything better than that. 

[TwinsChupacabra]

When I read the headline for the article, I thought it was a joke.

[Wedman13]

4 hours ago, old nurse said:

Well, he has the second lowest BABIP for players with 300 PA. Maybe he is an unlucky dude.  People here say an extreme BABIP is a measure of luck. Savant has all sorts of nice numbers on his page  https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/kody-clemens-665019?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb  I don’t know why the twister in chief did not include those numbers.  I looked at Savant because when I looked up his BABIP, I had to see if the .236 was the worst. , Wallner’s was only slightly better and I had to see if Clemens was as slow as Wallner. He is not. 

Neither are MLB players on a winning team.

[Wedman13]

15 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Low BABIP was the same excuse we heard for why the next season was going to be Kepler's season every year. He was always due for a breakout! It can be a sign of bad luck, but it isn't always. Kody Clemens is right on his career norms outside of 1 crazy month. He's putting up the same stats he always puts up. He's not an MLB player. He's not some 22-year-old rookie. 

Wallner, on the other hand, has a batting average 50 pts below his career norm this year. People act like this is his norm, it isn't. He hit .259 with power last year. .249 with power the year before. People just assume he's always a .200 hitter because he strikes out more than they'd like.

Kody Clemen's career line is .203/.260/.392/.651. Kody Clemen's 2025 line is .207/.278/.417/.694. And his line after his complete and utter outlier of a month of May is .191/.258/.368/.625. He's doing what he's always done. Be a non-MLB hitter. Which is why an actually good team waived him.

Not sure why MW came into this conversation.  But he is a massive reason why the twins are pathetic this year.  The point that he's even compared to Kody Clemens tells us all we need to know.  There's literally one reason people here defend him.  Maybe KC could have been born in MN and we'd be retiring his jersey.....

[Sjoski]

The only thing the Twins are really counting on with Clemens’ bat is the money they’re saving by not paying a real MLB hitter.

[rv78]

He's exactly the kind of bat the Twins count on. That's why they're so bad. Sorry, but there isn't a player in the major leagues on ANY team that is worth having on a roster that can barely hit .200 with an OBP under .300, unless he is a wizard with the glove and is used only as a defensive replacement. Stop trying to make bad hitters acceptable. 

[Bodie]

He's a gamer.  Versatile.  Heck, he might even be "clutch".

What he ain't is an everyday player.  Let alone at a premium offensive position.  I get that there needs to be "content" or there isn't much of a reason for the site, but come on!

[TwinsDr2021]

I feel like the only way somebody could come up with an article like this is on a bet on who could insult the fans intelligence more.  His OPS+ is 94 is career OPS+ is 79, is that and I quote "Looking Like a Bat Twins Can Count On"

He has 64 plate appearances against lefties - .148/.242/.148/.390 not far off from his career - .200/.250/.296/.546

Another lefty that is unplayable against lefties, how may of those can you have on a team? 

If the Twins are punting next season, then yes Clemens is the type of player to keep around, just good enough to pretend you are trying, not good enough to actually being trying. (The Twins have half of roster full of those players)

[MGX]

Clemens is a ballplayer, he's versatile & reliable in the field. His offensive production has shown steady improvement. 

With that said his offensive production is still below average by any measure. He currently looks like a bench player, which is fine & maybe the Twins can use him in that role. He's not an everyday player at this point in his career.

He's just over 700 PA's for his career so maybe there is more improvement to come, but next season is his 30 year old season & needs quite a bit of improvement to warrant everyday play.

At this point he's not a bat we can rely on.

[Parfigliano]

14 hours ago, cheeseheadgophfan said:

He's fine as a utility player, but there is NO serious MLB team that has him as their full-time starting first baseman....SMH

A serious team isn't considering him.  TC is.

[Parfigliano]

9 hours ago, TwinsChupacabra said:

When I read the headline for the article, I thought it was a joke.

I thought Roger Clemens wrote it.

[twinstalker]

No.  Cannot count on Clemens.  Doesn't mean he couldn't put up another season close to this, but counting on it would be ignoring logic and probability.