Should the Twins Bring Back Luis Arraez?

[Mike Sixel]

22 minutes ago, hitterscount said:

Just don't think bringing in a slap hitter that is another below average defender is moving the ticket sales when the team is winning at a .400 clip... just my initial thoughts

This. He can't defend, he can't run. Fan favorite? Winning gets fans. They aren't winning by adding another mediocre veteran. This is a truly mind boggling idea. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

5 hours ago, JBK said:

Yes.  Forget the WAR.  The man gets on base and doesn't make stupid outs.  He puts the bat on the ball and when you do that, anything can happen.  Put it this way, he's the opposite of Royce Lewis.  Let Clemens be the valuable UT.

Fire Rocco!

Have you checked lately? His OBP this year is .316…. And somehow his slugging got worse too, .388. That’s a .704 OPS for someone who provides negative fielding and running value.

Ty France is a much better fielder, with similar on base and slugging, and the Twins had to package him with Varland to offload his $1million contract.

[Derojo]

Luis Arraez has never reminded me of Rod Carew. BTW - Carew hit below .300 his first two years and then always above. Essentially, achieving and sustaining excellence.

1st base is a position that needs power, such as Hrbek brought to it. Hrbek was a great fielder as well and had height and length.

[jorgenswest]

I hope they don’t sign anyone for first base or any other position that is the under 10 million dollar solution. It only guarantees that next year they will be doing the same. I am guessing that Solano, Santana and France were fine value and as a group outperformed their team friendly contracts. Overall in those 3 seasons the Twins are 17th in wRC+ from 1B or maybe 14th depending on which selections you make in Fangraphs. That isn’t going to get it done even if the analysis says it is a good value. They really need to pay up for a bat that is going to be in the top quartile at his position. They can pay up in the form of trading prospects and/or taking on salary to push them towards the median.

If they aren’t willing to pay up then I would go young. Maybe Keaschall is 1B and Culpepper is starting in the infield. Put Jenkins and Rodriguez in the outfield. Play fast. Defend.

[Eris]

No. The Twins have only 3 position players on their active roster with above average defense (Buxton, Clemens, and Lewis). We don’t need another defensively challenged player on the roster when we already have 5 or 6 players whose best position is DH. 

[JADBP]

Remember...Sabermetrics is NOT about hitting homeruns....it is about GETTING ON BASE.  The more players that get on base, in whatever fashion, the more runs they score.  Few do it as well as Luis.  Love to watch him.  

[LambchoP]

I'd like to see Fedko or Wallner/Larnach over at first. Clemens can be backup/bench bat. Too bad he's a lefty too though, which we have way too many of.

[jorgenswest]

Arraez has an OBP of .317 this year. That would be 11th on the Twins. All four position players traded are among the 10 above him so I guess you could say it is 7th.

[Mrs. Baseball]

8 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Including double play grounders like last night. He's fun to watch but is a one tool player with that being the bat, without power. And he doesn't run well, when healthy. I am very intrigued how much he gets in free agency. The Twins are certainly not paying out much money for free agents.

One was a grounder. The other was a bullet.

[Vanimal46]

6 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Fan favorite? Winning gets fans

Those are 2 different thoughts Mike. You’re turning him into a spreadsheet. He won a batting title on the team. Of course people are going to be happy if he ends up signing on the team.

He’s not an immediate target but if he’s available late in the offseason for cheap why not? I don’t expect Larnach to be here to clog up DH. Do you think Clemens is better to keep around? There are plenty of plate appearances available for professional hitters. 

[Greglw3]

12 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

He is going to end up with roughly 1.7 WAR (in total) for the last two years.  Probably around .5-.6 this year.  How will that help?  Outman produced 3.9 WAR his 1st season which is better than Arraez has ever done.  Should we believe Outman is going back to 4 WAR?  It's possible but I sure would not bet on it.

Bill James wrote an article in November of 2021 where he completely picked apart WAR with an intelligent and systematic analysis. It’s a wildly flawed statistic and should never be applied to two totally different types of players. In fact, it shouldn’t be used at all.

Bill James concluded that instead of WAR, it should be known as WAG for wild ass guess. Read his article.

Yes, the Twins should bring back Luis Arraez. A 3 time batting titlest is just what the Twins need. They’d score a lot more runs with his low strikeout, high contact approach.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

1 hour ago, Greglw3 said:

Yes, the Twins should bring back Luis Arraez. A 3 time batting titlest is just what the Twins need. They’d score a lot more runs with his low strikeout, high contact approach.

His OBP is .317.  That’s not very impressive — and I really like Arraez.  Play the young guys unless you are going to sign someone that will actually hit and drive in some runs. 

[insagt1]

No strong feelings either way. But observtions: If we were having this same conversation about 20 or so years ago, people would think we all crackers. The guy has won 3 straight batting titles, which   very few have ever done. But suddenly BA is a dirty word about MetricLand. While he's 'off' a bit this year, so is all of MLB. There may not be 10 .300 hitters combined leagues. Getting hits still matters. 

Also Twins hitters love to strike out. I think its in their contracts to make sure that they kill at least one rally per game with a 'k'. At least Arraez makes contact. which might be an asset of sorts to a team of free swingers. If the guy's 1 dimension is getting hits, could be worse?

I'd offer him a 1 year contract for a reasonable amount and see what you get. 1st base doesn't necessarily require power if you have it elsewhere.

Having said all that, it will never happen, but at least it sparked some decent conversation.

[dxpavelka]

15 hours ago, Patzky said:

The Arraez Solano Polanco type is always a welcome reprieve form the Joey Gallo three true outcomes. But.. the whole reason the core is gutted is to move on. I appreciate the sentiment of Arraez returning but goodwill can also be maintained by hanging onto Pablo. 

Said that but I could easily see the Twins looking at Santana again, or even France for a song. I miss em but I'd rather see Sabato or someone else from inside the organization. A month ago I would have said How About Royce, but his defense has improved.

I'd still like to see Royce at 1B.  Plenty of guys in  the wings to play the other three infield spots:  Keashcall, Lee, Culpepper, Houston, DeBarge, Winkour, Amick (maybe projects as a 1B)  I sure hope we didn't move a bunch of guys at the deadline to bring more guys to move at the deadline.

[Major League Ready]

9 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

Bill James wrote an article in November of 2021 where he completely picked apart WAR with an intelligent and systematic analysis. It’s a wildly flawed statistic and should never be applied to two totally different types of players. In fact, it shouldn’t be used at all.

Bill James concluded that instead of WAR, it should be known as WAG for wild ass guess. Read his article.

Yes, the Twins should bring back Luis Arraez. A 3 time batting titlest is just what the Twins need. They’d score a lot more runs with his low strikeout, high contact approach.

OK.  Are wRC+, OBP and slugging also "wildly flawed".   A high BA with a modest OBP and very low slug is simply not valuable.  He is also a poor base runner (25th percentile for speed).  He is a poor defender (5th percentile for range).   How is that valuable and why on earth would we utilize FA budget to get it?  Convert any one of the current MLB OFers or one of the numerous OF prospects that are near ready.  That would be a good winter assignment for our OFers.  It would increase their value to have the flexibility of playing OF and 1B.

[DJL44]

8 hours ago, insagt1 said:

No strong feelings either way. But observtions: If we were having this same conversation about 20 or so years ago, people would think we all crackers. The guy has won 3 straight batting titles, which   very few have ever done. But suddenly BA is a dirty word about MetricLand. While he's 'off' a bit this year, so is all of MLB. There may not be 10 .300 hitters combined leagues. Getting hits still matters. 

20 years ago was 2005 and people were abundantly aware that batting average is not telling the whole story in 2005. You have to go back at least 40 years to find people overrating Steve Garvey and the like.

[twinfan]

I like Arraez and follow him in SD. If you take away the first 40 or so ABs this year, he is hitting around .315. The problem is that teams know how to basically play him and he is making outs rather consistently to LF. But who on the Twins are better hitters besides Buxton? Yes, we need power but Naylor? Alonso? They are both 35 homer guys with a rather low average and are too costly. Schwarber would be fine but we aren't spending 40 million a year. Would you replace Ryan and Pablo together with him? Don't be silly. Even Arraez is too expensive and he's not taking less than 10 mil for a year.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

13 minutes ago, twinfan said:

I like Arraez and follow him in SD. If you take away the first 40 or so ABs this year, he is hitting around .315. The problem is that teams know how to basically play him and he is making outs rather consistently to LF. But who on the Twins are better hitters besides Buxton? Yes, we need power but Naylor? Alonso? They are both 35 homer guys with a rather low average and are too costly. Schwarber would be fine but we aren't spending 40 million a year. Would you replace Ryan and Pablo together with him? Don't be silly. Even Arraez is too expensive and he's not taking less than 10 mil for a year.

Currently on the Twins by OPS limited to 10 including Arraez

Keaschall .911 SSS

Buxton .874

Wallner .812

Martin .756 SSS

Jeffers .742

Larnach .734

Clemens .718

Arraez .704 

Lee .678

Lewis .664

Ty France has a .328 OBP and .368 SLG, is a better fielder than Arraez. Arraez has .317 OBP .387 SLG. The Twins had to pay a major league reliever to offload the remainder of France’s $1m salary at the deadline.

If they spend money on FA, they need to aim higher.

[Whitey333]

Yes winning attracts fans.  But it's been obvious this ownership group and front office doesn't care about winning.  The " it's the process not the results"  philosophy of Falvey and Baldelli that is ruining the franchise.  And of course ownership full endorsement of them both.  I always liked Aaraez.  He got us a good starting pitcher in return in Lopez.  He was good here but the Twins won't sign him and probably shouldn't.  Play the young players and see what they can do.

[Paul Walerius]

22 hours ago, mike8791 said:

No way!  The Twins sorely lack middle of the lineup power..   DH/1B  are the two positions that could supply said power.   My god, we have guys like Wallner, Lee, Clemens batting cleanup.  No wonder our offense sucks!!

Unloading  Lopez's salary, together with Correa's, could enable the Twins to add a real   power threat in FA.  You have guys like  Schwarber,  Alonzo, Naylor entering FA.  Any one of these guys would provide an immediate lift  to this moribund lineup.  While trading Lopez will hurt, if the Twins use the savings to acquire a proven big bat, it's worth trading from the one area of depth remaining on this team.   I personally like a starting five of Ryan, Ober, Mathews, SWR/Abel, Festa/Bradley.  No, this is not a staff that will get us to a WS, but at least it should be competitive if the offense is improved.  Yes, we would need to add an experienced closer to compete, but at least there's a base for competition.  And trading Lopez should at least add strength to our prospect list.

Do I actually think ownership would spend big in FA?  No, but there's always hope they'll come to their senses before this franchise becomes totally irrelevant!  Arraez is not the answer here.

OK there are a few flaws to your comment.

1. Saying they lack middle of the lineup power then naming Wallner (20 HR) Clemens (14 HR) and Royce (9 HR) is flawed logic.   Now you could talk about the average and Wallner could be discussed.   These three have those numbers in around 80 games.   If you could double that what happens and Royce you can tell has been fighting things after the injury.   I would like to see if he could stay healthy and bounce back.   

2. Adding an experienced closer?  Joe Nathan, Glen Perkins, Johan Duran.  Were any of them experienced?   I will agree that they need to find someone but maybe that guy is one of Prielipp, Raya, Adams, Abel, Matthews

[Greglw3]

9 hours ago, insagt1 said:

No strong feelings either way. But observtions: If we were having this same conversation about 20 or so years ago, people would think we all crackers. The guy has won 3 straight batting titles, which   very few have ever done. But suddenly BA is a dirty word about MetricLand. While he's 'off' a bit this year, so is all of MLB. There may not be 10 .300 hitters combined leagues. Getting hits still matters. 

Also Twins hitters love to strike out. I think its in their contracts to make sure that they kill at least one rally per game with a 'k'. At least Arraez makes contact. which might be an asset of sorts to a team of free swingers. If the guy's 1 dimension is getting hits, could be worse?

I'd offer him a 1 year contract for a reasonable amount and see what you get. 1st base doesn't necessarily require power if you have it elsewhere.

Having said all that, it will never happen, but at least it sparked some decent conversation.

Very well written and long live batting average and RBIs!!! Maybe you have to have experienced it, but my beloved 1977 Twins with batting averages of .388 (Carew), .336 (Bostock), .338 (Glenn Adams) and .302 (Hisle) taught me the value of a team of hitters who could hit for high batting averages and the HRs in that group were 14, 14, 10?, 28. Triples were off the charts with Carew 14 and Bostock 12. Speed and the ability to manipulate the bat of those 1977 players is like Arraez for his career. They called Carew’s ba, 'The Magic Wand'!

I’d prefer any of those guys to 2025 Wallner with all the K and low batting average and unprecedented 20 HR with only 35 RBIs!!! What, maybe 8-10 RBIs all year sans HR???!!!

[Russ]

Luis probably doesn't want to come back.  

[Bodie]

On 8/30/2025 at 8:47 AM, JBK said:

Yes.  Forget the WAR.  The man gets on base and doesn't make stupid outs.  He puts the bat on the ball and when you do that, anything can happen.  Put it this way, he's the opposite of Royce Lewis.  Let Clemens be the valuable UT.

Fire Rocco!

Fire Rocco from a cannon.

Mended that fence for ya'.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Greglw3 said:

Very well written and long live batting average and RBIs!!! Maybe you have to have experienced it, but my beloved 1977 Twins with batting averages of .388 (Carew), .336 (Bostock), .338 (Glenn Adams) and .302 (Hisle) taught me the value of a team of hitters who could hit for high batting averages and the HRs in that group were 14, 14, 10?, 28. Triples were off the charts with Carew 14 and Bostock 12. Speed and the ability to manipulate the bat of those 1977 players is like Arraez for his career. They called Carew’s ba, 'The Magic Wand'!

I’d prefer any of those guys to 2025 Wallner with all the K and low batting average and unprecedented 20 HR with only 35 RBIs!!! What, maybe 8-10 RBIs all year sans HR???!!!

MLB batting average 1977 - .264

MLB batting average 2025 - .246

That's a 20 point drop in league batting average and the hitters are better now than they were then.

With Arraez, all you get is batting average. He's slow, has no power and is a bad fielder.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

17 hours ago, JADBP said:

Remember...Sabermetrics is NOT about hitting homeruns....it is about GETTING ON BASE.  The more players that get on base, in whatever fashion, the more runs they score.  Few do it as well as Luis.  Love to watch him.  

Moneyball was about getting on base as an undervalued statistic, 20+ years ago.
 

Sabre is an ever evolving statistical and historical society of baseball fans and professionals that has a wide approach to evaluating the game.

[TopGunn#22]

terrydactyls...No.  The main point of my trade is to get Jarren Duran, an excellent outfielder, base stealer and hitter and young LHP Payton Tolle.  Casas is just a throw in.  I'm not sure how much the red Sox still value Casas.  He's a lottery ticket.  Duran would sit with Keaschall at the top of of order and provide a dynamic #1 & #2.  Duran also provides "Buxton Insurance."  

Even with Walker Jenkins and E-Rod on the verge of coming up, Duran plays a great CF.  Duran gives us a solid bat and great defense with speed.  He's the antidote for Wallner & Larnach.  

[stringer bell]

23 hours ago, JADBP said:

Remember...Sabermetrics is NOT about hitting homeruns....it is about GETTING ON BASE.  The more players that get on base, in whatever fashion, the more runs they score.  Few do it as well as Luis.  Love to watch him.  

The .316 OBP says otherwise. Arraez is unique in his ability to make contact, but the one skill in which he is elite, actually otherworldly, doesn't make up for the areas where he is lacking. 

The just completed series with the Twins is a microcosm of his season. He was 3-12 and reached once on a walk. He had a sacrifice (probably was bunting for a hit) and had a sacrifice fly, he didn't strike out once and hit into two double plays. 

Since the Twins have traded him, Arraez has become more of a statistical anomaly. He has struck out less each year, but also walked less with limited power and he has moved away from second base just about completely, becoming a 1B/DH. 

[ashbury]

18 hours ago, insagt1 said:

But suddenly BA is a dirty word about MetricLand.

If you prefer old school for what sets the good batters apart then let's discuss Triple Crown numbers.  BA/HR/RBI.

Nothing new under the sun.  We're expressing the ideas a little differently nowadays, is all.

[Greglw3]

49 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

The .316 OBP says otherwise. Arraez is unique in his ability to make contact, but the one skill in which he is elite, actually otherworldly, doesn't make up for the areas where he is lacking. 

The just completed series with the Twins is a microcosm of his season. He was 3-12 and reached once on a walk. He had a sacrifice (probably was bunting for a hit) and had a sacrifice fly, he didn't strike out once and hit into two double plays. 

Since the Twins have traded him, Arraez has become more of a statistical anomaly. He has struck out less each year, but also walked less with limited power and he has moved away from second base just about completely, becoming a 1B/DH. 

 

10 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

OK.  Are wRC+, OBP and slugging also "wildly flawed".   A high BA with a modest OBP and very low slug is simply not valuable.  He is also a poor base runner (25th percentile for speed).  He is a poor defender (5th percentile for range).   How is that valuable and why on earth would we utilize FA budget to get it?  Convert any one of the current MLB OFers or one of the numerous OF prospects that are near ready.  That would be a good winter assignment for our OFers.  It would increase their value to have the flexibility of playing OF and 1B.

 

7 hours ago, DJL44 said:

MLB batting average 1977 - .264

MLB batting average 2025 - .246

That's a 20 point drop in league batting average and the hitters are better now than they were then.

With Arraez, all you get is batting average. He's slow, has no power and is a bad fielder.

Lies, damned lies and statistics and I got an A in every statistics class I ever took, including some pretty intense stuff in Predictive Analytics at Northwestern.

Arraez hit .354 for a whole MLB season with a .393 OBP, .861 OPS. OPS and OPS+ are both distorted by SLG% and those who play the role of setup man, leadoff or #2 hitters don’t need to hit with power. OPS or OPS+ should never be one size fits all statistics.

WHo’s the last player in baseball that hit .354 for a whole season?

Focusing in 2025 with a month left is very misleading. Arraez full season batting averages are .334, .321, .294, .316, .354, .314, .299, .318 and the partial .283.

Luis Arraez has a lifetime batting average of .316, vastly better than any of the current Twins and they’re all of the same generation. Lifetime .363 on base %.

I would underscore the failure of the SABR descendent statistics with those claiming Matt Wallner is an above average hitter, hitting about .210 with tons of runners stranded due to his rarely connecting bat and ball. Someone just told me that, that Wallner is an above average hitter. These horrible statistics that require nuance to properly interpret them are misleading a lot of people.

Wallner illustrates the folly of OPS+, a very biased stat for HR hitters, with his historic 20 HR and 35 RBIs. As Corey Provus mentioned that’s the lowest RBI total for 20 HR since the advent of the RBI stat in 1920. 15 solo HR, mostly worthless. With the other 5 being at least 2 run HR, he must have about 8-10 RBI on non-HRs, a truly horrible record.

.209 average, almost no ability to drive in any meaningful runs and he has a OPS+ of 120! The formula ignores context, even as extreme as Wallner's and as such is laughable to me.

My point is in 2025, Luis Arraez has 49 Runs Batted in, RBIs, 14 more than Matt Wallner. To score runs, you have to have hitters capable of driving in runs.

Even Brooks Lee has 56 RBIs to Wallner’s 35 RBIs. Power is overrated. The Twins have proven that over the last 5 years.  The resulting low batting averages have killed the Twins offenses, Max Kepler, Jake Cave, Kody Clemens, Matt Wallner, Michael A. Taylor, Christian Vazquez all hurting the Twins.

I’d like to see Gabriel Gonzalez who’s hit .300 at 3 levels this year get a chance as well as Kaelen Culpepper, Kyler Fedko, And Hendry Mendez with Jenkins when he’s ready. The Twins need to expunge all the low batting averages and replace them with situationally adaptable hitters.

[stringer bell]

2 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

 

 

Lies, damned lies and statistics and I got an A in every statistics class I ever took, including some pretty intense stuff in Predictive Analytics at Northwestern.

Arraez hit .354 for a whole MLB season with a .393 OBP, .861 OPS. OPS and OPS+ are both distorted by SLG% and those who play the role of setup man, leadoff or #2 hitters don’t need to hit with power. OPS or OPS+ should never be one size fits all statistics.

WHo’s the last player in baseball that hit .354 for a whole season?

Focusing in 2025 with a month left is very misleading. Arraez full season batting averages are .334, .321, .294, .316, .354, .314, .299, .318 and the partial .283.

Luis Arraez has a lifetime batting average of .316, vastly better than any of the current Twins and they’re all of the same generation. Lifetime .363 on base %.

I would underscore the failure of the SABR descendent statistics with those claiming Matt Wallner is an above average hitter, hitting about .210 with tons of runners stranded due to his rarely connecting bat and ball. Someone just told me that, that Wallner is an above average hitter. These horrible statistics that require nuance to properly interpret them are misleading a lot of people.

Wallner illustrates the folly of OPS+, a very biased stat for HR hitters, with his historic 20 HR and 35 RBIs. As Corey Provus mentioned that’s the lowest RBI total for 20 HR since the advent of the RBI stat in 1920. 15 solo HR, mostly worthless. With the other 5 being at least 2 run HR, he must have about 8-10 RBI on non-HRs, a truly horrible record.

.209 average, almost no ability to drive in any meaningful runs and he has a OPS+ of 120! The formula ignores context, even as extreme as Wallner's and as such is laughable to me.

My point is in 2025, Luis Arraez has 49 Runs Batted in, RBIs, 14 more than Matt Wallner. To score runs, you have to have hitters capable of driving in runs.

Even Brooks Lee has 56 RBIs to Wallner’s 35 RBIs. Power is overrated. The Twins have proven that over the last 5 years.  The resulting low batting averages have killed the Twins offenses, Max Kepler, Jake Cave, Kody Clemens, Matt Wallner, Michael A. Taylor, Christian Vazquez all hurting the Twins.

I’d like to see Gabriel Gonzalez who’s hit .300 at 3 levels this year get a chance as well as Kaelen Culpepper, Kyler Fedko, And Hendry Mendez with Jenkins when he’s ready. The Twins need to expunge all the low batting averages and replace them with situationally adaptable hitters.

I find it interesting that you bring up Wallner in an Arraez discussion because I thought about it too. I agree wholeheartedly that OPS and OPS+ paint an unrealistic picture for guys like Joey Gallo and Matt Wallner. Wallner hasn't had a good year and his comparatively high OPS+ shouldn't hide that. Arraez hasn't been good for two years in a row and his batting average shouldn't paint a different picture. Both guys are extreme examples of one-trick ponies. Arraez hits singles, Wallner hits bombs. Neither guy helps his team much on the bases or with a glove in his hand. WAR and OPS+ probably penalize Arraez too much for his lack of slug and add too much for Wallner, but neither is someone to build a team around. A team can probably thrive with one guy who has one major skill, but too many slow singles hitters with high batting averages and too many "three true outcome" guys won't win.

11 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

Very well written and long live batting average and RBIs!!! Maybe you have to have experienced it, but my beloved 1977 Twins with batting averages of .388 (Carew), .336 (Bostock), .338 (Glenn Adams) and .302 (Hisle) taught me the value of a team of hitters who could hit for high batting averages and the HRs in that group were 14, 14, 10?, 28. Triples were off the charts with Carew 14 and Bostock 12. Speed and the ability to manipulate the bat of those 1977 players is like Arraez for his career. They called Carew’s ba, 'The Magic Wand'!

I’d prefer any of those guys to 2025 Wallner with all the K and low batting average and unprecedented 20 HR with only 35 RBIs!!! What, maybe 8-10 RBIs all year sansas w HR???!!!

I'll add a response to this post as well. The '77 Twins won 84 games and finished fourth in the AL West despite scoring the most runs in the American League. Rod Carew was the deserved MVP with a season for the ages and the other guys named above were terrific as well. They led the league in both BA and OBP and OPS but were only fifth in OPS due to lack of slugging. By any measure that is an effective offense. The '77 Twins had quite a bit of speed--Carew, Bostock, Hisle--but stole a middling 105 bases but they were second in the league in both doubles and triples. Only winning 84 games shows how important pitching is and always has been.

48 years later, the game has changed quite a bit. With all the hard throwing pitchers who get more than a strikeout an inning, it is harder to string together singles to score runs without extra base hits. A club with too many Luis Arraezes just won't score enough runs especially when they can't take an extra base.