Bust, Bullpen Ace, or Future Stud: What Are the Twins Getting in Taj Bradley?

[Eric Blonigen]

Image courtesy of © Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images

 

If I told you the Twins just acquired a pitcher who compares to Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Hunter Brown, and Dylan Cease, would you believe me? Well, Baseball Savant does, at least as it pertains to pitch velocity and movement.

After acquiring righty Taj Bradley from the Tampa Bay Rays for bullpen ace Griffin Jax, Derek Falvey called Bradley “One of the best young starting pitchers in the game”. That may be a bit overblown at this point, but the building blocks are there. If you squint just a little bit, you can see your way to the same conclusion; it just may take a little work to get him there.

The Rays drafted Bradley in the fifth round of the 2018 draft. He advanced quickly, and was considered a top pitching prospect, reaching the 20 spot on the MLB top-100 list heading into the 2023 season. He made his debut in April of that year, and has shown signs of brilliance, but also frustrating inconsistency.

 

 

In his rookie season, he struck out 28% of opposing hitters, but walked a too-high 8.5%. Since then, both of these have gotten worse. In any given start, he may either look dominant or get knocked around; there hasn’t been a ton of middle ground. To wit, this season he has given up four or more runs eight times, and two or fewer runs nine times. Now, a former top prospect not being able to put it all together consistently is the recipe for being labeled a bust, and that’s always a possible outcome.

There are a few reasons for optimism, however, and if he can take even a small step forward, he has frontline starter potential. Before you tell me “c’mon, there’s no way Tampa Bay would give up a guy capable of being a frontline starter” let me remind you they did this very thing with Joe Ryan. Anyway, let’s dig in.

Stuff
As I mentioned in my opener, Bradley’s stuff is legit. His fastball averages 96, but he doesn’t miss many bats with it. He’s got a hard splitter he throws to lefties, and a cutter he throws to righties. He’s also got a curve that gets a ton of whiffs due to elite induced vertical break. Both the cutter and curve grade out as above-average pitches.

 

He’s a ground ball pitcher and limits hard contact, but when he does allow hard contact, it leaves the yard a little too frequently.

His splitter grades out well, but he has been using it less recently. Early in the season, he was throwing it 20% of the time, but in July, that has dipped to less than 7%. That factored into his demotion to the Rays' Triple-A affiliate in Durham. Bradley spoke to this, saying "I know I need that third ... to get back to where it was last year. I'll just take it as it is and go down there, get back to work, just keep going." To his credit, in his first start with Durham, he seemed to get back on track, with a 7.0 IP, O H, O R, 2 BB, 3 SO line.

 

To me, this suggests some tinkering with his pitch mix or sequencing could increase his whiff and strikeout rate. Or, encouraging him to throw his heater even higher in the zone (and helping him locate consistently) could improve results with that pitch.

He has also been incredibly durable, with no professional history of arm or shoulder issues.

Home-road splits, and expected numbers
There are a couple pieces to note here. The first is the stark nature of his home/road splits. Across ten away games this season, Bradley has a 3.66 FIP, in large part due to his limiting home runs on the road. Additionally, in each of his first two seasons in the league, he gave up three more home runs than expected. In 2025, he’s on pace to do about the same. For his young career, his xFIP is 3.88 — almost a full run better than his actual ERA. That suggests he should be a third or fourth starter already at 24 years old, and there’s still plenty of projectability there. Making 16 starts at Target Field instead of George Steinbrenner Field might be just what the doctor ordered.

Twins Pitching Development
The Twins pitching machine excels at adding velocity, and optimizing the tools pitchers have. (See: Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Pablo Lopez, Zebby Matthews). Bradley already throws heat — what could he do with an extra tick or two on his pitches? Or perhaps they incorporate a sweeper to give hitters yet another look. He will need to work on command and control a bit, but that's not at all uncommon for a 24-year-old pitcher.

Sure, I realize that every pitcher has the potential to be great if they strike out more batters and walk fewer, but not every pitcher has Bradley’s stuff. It does seem likely that even if the Twins can’t unlock his true potential, his downside will probably be a high-leverage bullpen arm. You know, like the pitcher with great stuff but inconsistent results, whom the Twins traded to get him. Only, Bradley is much younger, much cheaper, and under control for longer.

Look, I get fans being disappointed that Falvey chose to blow up the bullpen, and I understand feeling like the return for Jax is a bit underwhelming. But, reading through Rays Twitter, many of their fans feel like the Rays gave up too much for Jax. Time will tell, of course, but it’s only reasonable to trust the Twins' ability to recognize pitchers they can do more with, even if they might be destined for the bullpen. And honestly? That seems like the absolute worst-case scenario for Bradley.

 

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[Gary_Wayne_Guy]

THIS!  More articles like this.

I suspect I am like many twins fans who were shocked by the bullpen 'red wedding'.  Now that the shock has cleared I/we are wondering what the hell did we get and when can we expect it.   

Sounds like Taj has stuff and in a best case scenario we have a number 2/3 starter with years of control and mediocre case scenario we have a high leverage bullpen arm that can be a foundation piece in rebuilding a dominant bullpen.

At this point I have to say I am writing off 2026 season as well

 

 

[Dman]

You look at Bradley's stats at the MLB and they aren't much different than Paddack's.  They both have a sub par K rate though Bradley keeps more balls on the ground.  They Both have two good pitches and don't really have a third and the Twins didn't seem to help Paddack all that much since they got him.

I don't know much about Bradley as I don't think I have watched him pitch.  It is hard to break into a starter in MLB and he is young and still has time on his side.  Like the OP I put him in the Festa, Matthews bucket with less K potential.  At worst he should be a very good pen arm.

Still I like the potential for Tampa better.  They are getting an arm that has pitches that miss bats with a great K rate to show for it and multiple plus pitches.  It's a far better foundation to start with IMO.  If they stretch him out next year as a starter it will be interesting to see the results.

I wouldn't say the Twins got hijacked in this deal, but I do question if they will help Bradley be any better than Paddack.   Hopefully I am wrong and he becomes a mid rotation starter.

[Mike Rose]

Great analysis. Honestly, of the three pitchers the Twins acquired who are close to the majors (Bradley, Abel and Rojas), I think we could be pretty happy if any two of them become “dudes.” With Ryan and Pablo in place, imagine having above-average 3 and 4 starters, and then rounding out the rotation with one of Ober, SWR, Festa, Zebby, etc. That’s a pretty solid 1-5…and a great way to get back into contention soon. I like many am still bummed about the trade off, but if you squint, you can definitely see the vision.

[twinzcynic]

I really hope they don't focus on increasing spin rates and getting an extra little bit of velo on his pitches. As mentioned in the article his natural "stuff" is more than good enough and imo has borderline ace potential. As cynical as I am this was their best trade IF they are able to improve his control (though as mentioned in the article, it seems our coaching staff seems more intent on improving velo and not command),

[2wins87]

Getting the 2023 or 2024 version of Bradley would have been great. But his stuff has actually backed up quite a bit and I don't know what to make of that.

In 2023 and 2024 his 4-seam and splitter both modeled out as around 110 or better in stuff+ models, but this year they are both below average.  The cutter was also 108 according to Pitch Profiler in 2023 and 2024, so really only the curveball, still his least used pitch, seems to be getting better while all of his primary pitches have gotten worse.

Is his stuff actually "legit"?  I don't know, it seems completely average this year. 

I imagine the Twins have some plans to tweak his stuff to try to get back to where he was, and Bradley having done it before maybe should be encouraging that he can get back.  But as it stands today, they traded for a guy with average stuff and poor control, so they are really banking on the idea that they can fix him.

[madtowntwin]

Jax, Ryan, Pablo, and Ober...The one pitch all have in common not mentioned within the young and talented Bradley's repertoire is the Sweeper. Seems like the Minnesota Pitching Staff have been very successful in helping institute that pitch and playing it off of the fastball. Perhaps Tampa has tinkered in this manner with Taj - Perhaps not. But what if....His physical talent and ability have been well documented. He had a pectoral injury in 2023 that put him on the IL briefly, but has been durable. Tampa and Milwaukee are prime examples of developing talent thru the draft as well as acquisition. Both have had success, but a few hiccups as well. Joe Ryan came to us via the Rays in a trade. Here's to hoping for lightning in a bottle twice!! Win Twins. 

[nicksaviking]

Splitters and sub-par infield defenses go together like peanut butter and ketchup.

They really need to tinker those groundballs into strikeouts or this isn't going to go well.

[mikelink45]

This made me curious - which teams actually are good at developing pitchers?  On the web I could not find anything that ranked us beyond middle of the pack.  Maybe if we changed team philosophy we could teach more than sweeper and spin.  

The future needs to start soon.  Bring up all the young arms - have an 8 - 10 man rotation with BP in between.  Let's see these players and give us some entertainment value for the rest of the season. 

[jmlease1]

Twins have had some success adding/working a splitter into a pitchers mix as a weapon before, so maybe they'll be able to work Bradley's up into a better position that he can keep it working effectively. It sounds like if he has that working it makes a real difference for him.

TB has an excellent development program, so it's a little chancy to say that we're going to be able to "fix" Bradley better/faster than TB would, but sometimes a player needs a new voice and new environment to have things sink in or just hearing the same message in a different way helps someone put it together. We've plucked a good from them before, worked with him to make adjustments in pitches and mix to see great success, so while presuming we can do what TB did not is probably a little too arrogant, you also shouldn't presume that anyone who TB will trade isn't salvageable or that they can't be improved either.

There's a lot of talent there and it'll be interesting to see if he can put it together. I'm less concerned about the infield defense behind him right now, even if it means he's giving up some extra hits right now. Process will matter a bit more than results for the rest of this (lost) season, so if he's getting ground balls and limiting the dingers again, they can look at infield defense in the offseason.

In conclusion, Eff the Pohlads and sell the team!

[bunsen82]

https://www.milb.com/video/taj-bradley-s-seven-strong-innings

That version looks useable, with very good control.  Bradley is such a confounding player.  He does have the ability to be a #2 pitcher.  This current version in 2025 is a backend starter.   I don't claim to understand stuff+,  but its clear his stuff has declined from 2 years ago significantly.   11 SO/9  to 7 this year.  2 BB/9 up to 3.5.   He is still throwing 96 mph.  So what do we have to work with,  a pitcher that has 2 good pitches,  even himself admits he needs 3rd and he needs to get his 2 good pitches back to where they were even a year ago.   To me that is a significant project.  So they tweak him this year,  if it doesn't work he immediately slots into the bullpen.   For this to pay off you need him to become a #3 or higher starting pitcher or a high end reliever.  You have to avoid him flaming out or becoming a backend replaceable starter.   Honestly,  you gained Jax's arm with 3 more years of controllability and is 6 years younger. 

Honestly of the 3 pitchers Varland, Jax, Duran.   Jax carries the most risk of underperformance.   There is a part of me that thinks they traded him because they were worried he was going to implode again.  For all his stuff,  he just tends to blow up frequently.   He gave up a run the other day in his relief effort.   Both Jax and Bradley are players that tanked their value this year.  Ultimately we each traded an underperforming pitcher and hoping for better results.  The difference is we got a starter potentially with 5 years of control and 24 years old.  They got a 30 year old reliever with 2 years of control,  that they may convert to a starter whose stuff is rated much higher than Bradleys right now.   

I have waffled multiple times on this trade.  This trade by far holds the most risk and reward.  There is so much variability in outcomes.  Honestly,  I have no idea how this one will pan out.  I hope he finds himself, regains his confidence and the Twins can help him develop another pitch and he becomes a high end starter.  Right now I think I would hedge my bets more that Bradley finds himself either as a starter or reliever, than Jax turns into an elite reliable reliever or a high end starter.  I will say,  I am ok with the Twins doing more 1 for 1 deals as you are going for players that do have a higher probability of panning out.  Bradley has definite potential,  can it be realized.   

[Major League Ready]

30 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Splitters and sub-par infield defenses go together like peanut butter and ketchup.

They really need to tinker those groundballs into strikeouts or this isn't going to go well.

He won't be pitching to the INF of the past.  At least not for long.  The only guy that is likely in the same position this time next year is Lewis and he is in the 87th percentile for range at 3B.  Culpepper (if he is what we think he is) will be here by July 1 next year.  Keaschall at 2B and 1B remains a question mark.   It could be Debarge or a few others by 2027.  He is under control through 2029.

I have not seen Culpepper play but what I have read sounds pretty encouraging.  Obviously, he is still a prospect but assuming he continues on the path he is on, that INF looks like at least average defensively.

Does anyone that has seen Culpepper have an opinion they would like to share in terms of his defense?

[DJL44]

58 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Splitters and sub-par infield defenses go together like peanut butter and ketchup.

They really need to tinker those groundballs into strikeouts or this isn't going to go well.

Or they could acquire a second baseman who can catch the ball.

[Dman]

9 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

He won't be pitching to the INF of the past.  At least not for long.  The only guy that is likely in the same position this time next year is Lewis and he is in the 87th percentile for range at 3B.  Culpepper (if he is what we think he is) will be here by July 1 next year.  Keaschall at 2B and 1B remains a question mark.   It could be Debarge or a few others by 2027.  He is under control through 2029.

I have not seen Culpepper play but what I have read sounds pretty encouraging.  Obviously, he is still a prospect but assuming he continues on the path he is on, that INF looks like at least average defensively.

Does anyone that has seen Culpepper have an opinion they would like to share in terms of his defense?

I haven't watched every game. but I have seen him boot a few balls and make mistakes.  I have also seen him go deep in the hole and make good throws.  He seems to have good range and sets himself up well for strong throws.  Most prospect evaluator's have walked back there comments that he might need to move to 3rd base, to he can stick at short and make all the plays there. I don't how good he is but he seems solid there for sure.

He played third last night and boy did he look good there.  Much better than Lewis IMO.  Nice grabs, sets feet well and made long and accurate throws to first. He looked like he could be an All Star talent at 3rd at least in that game.

That kid is quite the talent.  He probably could play anywhere, but yeah I think he is going to be good to great shortstop from what I have seen so far.

[nicksaviking]

17 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Or they could acquire a second baseman who can catch the ball.

Typically, players who are both good fielders and good hitters are out of the Twins price range. I'd rather take the plus offense and strikeout pitchers over the plus defense and groundball pitchers.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Splitters and sub-par infield defenses go together like peanut butter and ketchup.

They really need to tinker those groundballs into strikeouts or this isn't going to go well.

Or make INF defense more of a priority.

[Doctor Gast]

Put him in the pen until he finds his 3rd pitch like Santana

[nicksaviking]

4 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Or make INF defense more of a priority.

Sure, but just about every time this team tries to improve the defense, it makes the offense worse.

[NYCTK]

6 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Typically, players who are both good fielders and good hitters are out of the Twins price range. I'd rather take the plus offense and strikeout pitchers over the plus defense and groundball pitchers.

That sort of thinking is how you end up with a team of Mirandas, Juliens, Larnachs, and Wallners. How'd that turn out again? 

[SaberNerd]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

This made me curious - which teams actually are good at developing pitchers?  On the web I could not find anything that ranked us beyond middle of the pack.  Maybe if we changed team philosophy we could teach more than sweeper and spin.

We are one of the top orgs at developing pitching. 6th in fWAR since 2022, and that is with no major FA moves and only taking 1 pitcher with our first pick since 2016.

Lack of hitting development (and hitter injury prevention) is the problem

[SF Twins Fan]

According to Dan Hayes, Jax requested the trade after seeing all of the other trades that were made.

Twins’ Griffin Jax requested a trade, and what I learned about the club’s fire sale, Part 1 - The Athletic

[NYCTK]

5 minutes ago, SaberNerd said:

We are one of the top orgs at developing pitching. 6th in fWAR since 2022, and that is with no major FA moves and only taking 1 pitcher with our first pick since 2016.

Lack of hitting development (and hitter injury prevention) is the problem

FIP and WAR with is nice and all, and may be most indicative of pitching performance, but if you actually look at the totality of run prevention the Twins are 16th in ERA in that time and 17th in Runs Allowed and Win Percentage Added. 

They're actually 14th in runs in that same time frame. 

[bunsen82]

14 minutes ago, SF Twins Fan said:

According to Dan Hayes, Jax requested the trade after seeing all of the other trades that were made.

Twins’ Griffin Jax requested a trade, and what I learned about the club’s fire sale, Part 1 - The Athletic

Thats behind a paywall.  What does it specifically say.  It does appear things came to head that last night.  

[bunsen82]

So I read it on my Iphone.  So the Twins intentions were to keep Jax prior to him requesting the trade.  Thats interesting.  It does line up saying they were only wanting to trade 1 of Duran or Jax. Between the 9th inning in the previous game, and Jax who seemed to either struggling with the role he was in or performance,  seemed to be on a different page than the Twins direction.  Honestly,  trading him is likely for the best for both parties.   I wish him well in Tampa.  The Trade is still quite the dice roll by both teams. 

Right now the only other question is what happened with Varland.  I don't think he requested the trade and had you kept him,  with a couple additions I think you still could have had a solid bullpen.  Or did they truly feel on that trade they were getting excess value and since they had already traded a ton decided why not? 

Pressley seems like a no brainer.  Will he decide to come back to the Twins?   The article didn't go into depth as to the progress on that.     

[DJL44]

48 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Typically, players who are both good fielders and good hitters are out of the Twins price range. I'd rather take the plus offense and strikeout pitchers over the plus defense and groundball pitchers.

I'll take better defense at 2B and better hitting at 1B. They've been getting glove players for 1B and hitters for 2B.

[bunsen82]

13 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

If his fb is flat and getting hit maybe Joe Ryan can give him some grip tips.

I think as the season goes on we will learn that maybe we really did get some good value on some of these trades.

Honestly from watching the highlights that is what I am seeing with his fastball.  There is absolutely no movement.  That is about what I watched with Urena yesterday.  In that 1st inning they hit him really hard, even though he was throwing up to 98 mph.  The issue is the fastball is so flat.  The only thing you have to time up is the speed.  When you have having to time one plane it becomes achievable to hit even a very fast fastball.  

[Doctor Gast]

50 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Sure, but just about every time this team tries to improve the defense, it makes the offense worse.

I'd rather have good defense & pitching than jeopardize them both for so-so offense.

[LeatherAntenna]

2 hours ago, Mike Rose said:

Great analysis. Honestly, of the three pitchers the Twins acquired who are close to the majors (Bradley, Abel and Rojas), I think we could be pretty happy if any two of them become “dudes.” With Ryan and Pablo in place, imagine having above-average 3 and 4 starters, and then rounding out the rotation with one of Ober, SWR, Festa, Zebby, etc. That’s a pretty solid 1-5…and a great way to get back into contention soon. I like many am still bummed about the trade off, but if you squint, you can definitely see the vision.

I like your term ‘squinting,’ but are we squinting in bright light or in the dark?

[FlyingFinn]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Splitters and sub-par infield defenses go together like peanut butter and ketchup.

What does everyone think of our IF defense next year if it's Lewis, Culpepper, Lee at 3B, SS, and 2B. With Keaschall there as well, playing as much as all of these. He plugs in at 2B and then you have the various combinations when players get a day off.

[chpettit19]

25 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Honestly from watching the highlights that is what I am seeing with his fastball.  There is absolutely no movement.  That is about what I watched with Urena yesterday.  In that 1st inning they hit him really hard, even though he was throwing up to 98 mph.  The issue is the fastball is so flat.  The only thing you have to time up is the speed.  When you have having to time one plane it becomes achievable to hit even a very fast fastball.  

Jose Urena has 13.9 inches of arm side run on his 4-seam fastball. Thats amongst the highest in baseball. Whatever you thought you saw yesterday, you saw wrong. He has incredible arm side run on his 4-seamer, sinker, and change. His problem is that he doesn't mirror that with anything. His slider has terrible movement and doesn't counteract the run of his other pitches so hitters only have to worry about pitches breaking 1 direction and it's all the same type of break.

Taj, in comparison, has 7.2 inches of arm side run on his fastball. Which is essentially exactly league average. But does have elite carry. What you refer to as "flat." If you can locate a fastball with his kind of carry at the top of the zone you can be incredibly good. Joe Ryan's fastball at the top of the zone is one the most effective pitches in all of baseball because of the carry he gets on it. But missing your location leads to a lot of balls hit hard that go a long way. Thus you get the results we see from Taj Bradley when he's inconsistent with his locations.

Flat fastballs aren't a problem if you can locate them correctly. It's about knowing your repertoire and pitching to your individual strengths instead of pitching to a generalized idea of how pitchers are supposed to get hitters out. It's why everyone uses high speed cameras to learn their specific body movements and what their pitches do and how they can be the most effective. The challenge is perfecting it and being able to be consistent with it.