Bust, Bullpen Ace, or Future Stud: What Are the Twins Getting in Taj Bradley?

[nicksaviking]

55 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'd rather have good defense & pitching than jeopardize them both for so-so offense.

I don't see how this team starts winning again if they don't start putting a legit offense on the field. That has to be the priority going forward. No more Manny Margot and Christian Vazquez and Andrelton Simmons types. They let you down way too often. 

[bunsen82]

9 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Jose Urena has 13.9 inches of arm side run on his 4-seam fastball. Thats amongst the highest in baseball. Whatever you thought you saw yesterday, you saw wrong. He has incredible arm side run on his 4-seamer, sinker, and change. His problem is that he doesn't mirror that with anything. His slider has terrible movement and doesn't counteract the run of his other pitches so hitters only have to worry about pitches breaking 1 direction and it's all the same type of break.

Taj, in comparison, has 7.2 inches of arm side run on his fastball. Which is essentially exactly league average. But does have elite carry. What you refer to as "flat." If you can locate a fastball with his kind of carry at the top of the zone you can be incredibly good. Joe Ryan's fastball at the top of the zone is one the most effective pitches in all of baseball because of the carry he gets on it. But missing your location leads to a lot of balls hit hard that go a long way. Thus you get the results we see from Taj Bradley when he's inconsistent with his locations.

Flat fastballs aren't a problem if you can locate them correctly. It's about knowing your repertoire and pitching to your individual strengths instead of pitching to a generalized idea of how pitchers are supposed to get hitters out. It's why everyone uses high speed cameras to learn their specific body movements and what their pitches do and how they can be the most effective. The challenge is perfecting it and being able to be consistent with it.

https://www.mlb.com/video/jose-ramirez-homers-23-on-a-fly-ball-to-right-field-daniel-schneemann-sco

Didn't see any movement on that pitch other than some slight downward movement at the end,  no side run at all.   That appeared to be a middle middle fastball at 97 mph that Ramirez crushed.   I saw him throw that pitch 4 times and hit hard.   

I am novice at the more technical and analytical sides of pitching.  All I know is what Urena has hasn't been working for a while even though the velocity has remained elite.   

Thanks for the information though greatly appreciate it.   I hope they can tweak some things with Taj.  

[nicksaviking]

13 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

What does everyone think of our IF defense next year if it's Lewis, Culpepper, Lee at 3B, SS, and 2B. With Keaschall there as well, playing as much as all of these. He plugs in at 2B and then you have the various combinations when players get a day off.

That's probably better, but TBD.

Still, get the strikeouts; even with a good defense, groundballs bring chance into play. Get the easy outs.

[NYCTK]

5 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

No more Manny Margot and Christian Vazquez and Andrelton Simmons types. They let you down way too often. 

OK. That also means no Harrison Baders or Michael A Taylors. 

No Buxtons either if we're not concerned about defense when viewing prospects. 25 year old with a career 700 OPS? BUM.

[chpettit19]

52 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

https://www.mlb.com/video/jose-ramirez-homers-23-on-a-fly-ball-to-right-field-daniel-schneemann-sco

Didn't see any movement on that pitch other than some slight downward movement at the end,  no side run at all.   That appeared to be a middle middle fastball at 97 mph that Ramirez crushed.   I saw him throw that pitch 4 times and hit hard.   

I am novice at the more technical and analytical sides of pitching.  All I know is what Urena has hasn't been working for a while even though the velocity has remained elite.   

Thanks for the information though greatly appreciate it.   I hope they can tweak some things with Taj.  

I think you're being fooled by camera angles here. This camera isn't straight on. That pitch started just off the inside corner and moved across 1/2 of the plate. It had about 20" of drop and 15" of run on it. 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?date=8/3/2025&gamePk=776892&chartType=movement&legendType=pitchName&playerType=pitcher&inning=1&count=&pitchHand=R&batSide=L&descFilter=&ptFilter=&resultFilter=&hf=illustrator&sportId=1&liveAb=#776892

You can click on the chart on this page that shows his pitches from that game to enlarge it. That pitch is the bottom right orange dot. It was an awful pitch and he missed his spot by about a foot, but it was most definitely not straight. And, no, Urena isn't a good pitcher. But it isn't because his pitches are straight. It's because 3 of them do roughly the same thing and the 4th doesn't counter them while he has bad control of all 4.

Taj has significantly more upside than Urena. His pitches mirror each other much better and have far better chances for success. I hope they can get him straightened out and make that trade look as bad as the Cruz for Ryan deal. Only time will tell. It's an upside swing. I wish they'd have gotten a 2nd piece to mitigate some of the risk, but there's definitely a chance they get a really good player out of him.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I don't see how this team starts winning again if they don't start putting a legit offense on the field. That has to be the priority going forward. No more Manny Margot and Christian Vazquez and Andrelton Simmons types. They let you down way too often. 

You think Margot is a defensive asset? You look at NYY, they got this great offense & even supposedly good pitching but their defense stinks. They got swept by MIA. & we can't come close to spending the big bucks to get these big bats. We need an offense that can hit when we need a hit not strike out & don't need somebody to hit a bunch of HRs when we don't. 

I'll take a very good to elite defensive player at a premium position that can hit an occasional clutch hit, than a Cave in CF & a Julien at 2B (even if he was hitting) who are hacks at those positions. I expect my DH & corner fielders to drive in the bulk of needed runs. A ball getting by or flubbing up a play can do a lot more damage. Normally, a light-hitting, good pitching & good defense can go farther than a good offensive team with poor defense in what I've seen.

[h2oface]

According to Tampa - a bust. 

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, FlyingFinn said:

What does everyone think of our IF defense next year if it's Lewis, Culpepper, Lee at 3B, SS, and 2B. With Keaschall there as well, playing as much as all of these. He plugs in at 2B and then you have the various combinations when players get a day off.

I love Culpepper, and he's doing everything right so far this year, but this is literally his first full professional season. Slotting him in as the starting SS for 2026 is probably asking a bit much. It'd be great if he's so awesome in spring training that they decide to skip him another level and bring him up already, but seems a little unlikely.

He's doing great, and at this rate he'll be in MLB in 2026, which is amazing (and a reflection of how much the sell-off and payroll limitations from our dreadful ownership has stripped out proven talent) but I wouldn't expect him to be slotted in from the jump.

A more likely alignment will be: Lewis, Lee, and Keaschall (and who knows at 1B, but Clemens might be a possibility). Unclear how good Keaschall will be at 2B; franchise seems to have confidence he can stay on the dirt, but increasingly hard to trust their evaluations on some things. Lee is capable enough defensively at SS I think, but he's not a plus defender there. Lewis certainly has the range at 3B and has shown flashes that impress...but how consistent will he be? That might be more about his lack of health enabling him to simply play the position every day. Could be a good enough infield defense that has both questions and upside.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

What does everyone think of our IF defense next year if it's Lewis, Culpepper, Lee at 3B, SS, and 2B. With Keaschall there as well, playing as much as all of these. He plugs in at 2B and then you have the various combinations when players get a day off.

Culpepper probably won't start the season at SS. Lee isn't great at 2B, he's more of a 3B. Keaschall might be a 2B. Kody Clemens will still be around. Guessing they start 2026 with Lewis, Lee, Keaschall and Clemens.

[Mike Sixel]

8 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Culpepper probably won't start the season at SS. Lee isn't great at 2B, he's more of a 3B. Keaschall might be a 2B. Kody Clemens will still be around. Guessing they start 2026 with Lewis, Lee, Keaschall and Clemens.

Agreed on all counts, though I'm not sold on Lee (man, really shocked at how bad he's been at hitting so far). 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, h2oface said:

According to Tampa - a bust. 

Because they traded him?

[bunsen82]

5 hours ago, Dman said:

I haven't watched every game. but I have seen him boot a few balls and make mistakes.  I have also seen him go deep in the hole and make good throws.  He seems to have good range and sets himself up well for strong throws.  Most prospect evaluator's have walked back there comments that he might need to move to 3rd base, to he can stick at short and make all the plays there. I don't how good he is but he seems solid there for sure.

He played third last night and boy did he look good there.  Much better than Lewis IMO.  Nice grabs, sets feet well and made long and accurate throws to first. He looked like he could be an All Star talent at 3rd at least in that game.

That kid is quite the talent.  He probably could play anywhere, but yeah I think he is going to be good to great shortstop from what I have seen so far.

From what I can gather the biggest concerns was a lack of range with a really strong arm during the draft.  He has potential gold glove ability at 3rd base based on the report from the MLB draft.  The concern was the bat wasn't good enough for his defense at 3rd to be elite.  Now you have the bat is much better than expected and his range has been very good at short with his strong arm.   

Keith law wrote the following when he included in his top 50 prospects -"He's a true shortstop who projects to stay there and be 55 or 60 defender."  He acknowledged he underestimated his power but continued to question his swing decisions and that was from July 24th.  There have been very few chinks in the Culpepper armor at AA.  He is absolutely demolishing this level.  I am starting to think his grades would be close to the following  Hit 60,  Power 50/55,  Run 50, Arm 60,  field 55/60   overall 60.   His trend is definitely up.   

We have lots of options coming up.  Culpepper/Lee at short,  Lewis/Lee/Amick (down the road) 3rd,  Keaschal/Lee/Debarge at 2nd.    I really like our potential  infield options.  The issue is I have been saying this since 2023.  

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Agreed on all counts, though I'm not sold on Lee (man, really shocked at how bad he's been at hitting so far). 

Switch hitting is hard. He has two swings to maintain and different pitches to handle from each side.

[TheLeviathan]

I think what you see is the Twins spotting another Ryan.  As @chpettit19noted earlier - his carry on his fastball is quite good.  It's the thing that separates Joe Ryan because he can throw something really nasty high in the zone and couple it with his sweeper, splitter, or sinker to force hitters to cover a large area of the plate.

Falvey said that what they were working on with Taj is the splitter.  You can see here why - he's not getting enough downward movement to make that pitch effective.  

If they fix that pitch?  Watch out.  If they don't?  I think he'll still be an effective reliever.

 

[glunn]

11 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

 

Honestly of the 3 pitchers Varland, Jax, Duran.   Jax carries the most risk of underperformance.   There is a part of me that thinks they traded him because they were worried he was going to implode again. 

Acording to mlbtradrumors.com, Jax asked to be traded after he became aware of the big selloff.

[bunsen82]

15 minutes ago, glunn said:

Acording to mlbtradrumors.com, Jax asked to be traded after he became aware of the big selloff.

Yep that was new information. It appears the initial plan may have been to keep Jax and Varland.  Things escalated as the day went on.  

[Dman]

20 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

What does everyone think of our IF defense next year if it's Lewis, Culpepper, Lee at 3B, SS, and 2B. With Keaschall there as well, playing as much as all of these. He plugs in at 2B and then you have the various combinations when players get a day off.

Hypothically? Probably the best infield this team has had since the Tom Kelly Years.

[DJL44]

12 hours ago, glunn said:

According to mlbtradrumors.com, Jax asked to be traded after he became aware of the big selloff.

Be careful what you ask for. You want a trade? Enjoy spending August in Florida at a minor league park.